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At least 199 records · Page 11

Bounding the risk of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station at assembly stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Models, Theoretical↗

Improved Bounds on Non-Luminous Matter in Solar Orbit

We improve, using a larger set of observations including Voyager 2 Neptune flyby data, previous bounds on the amount of dark matter (DM) trapped in a spherically symmetric distribution about the sun. We bound DM by noting that such a distribution would increase the effective mass of the sun as seen by the outer planets and by finding the uncertainty in that effective mass for Uranus and Neptune in fits to the JPL Developmental Ephermeris residuals, including optical data and those two planets' Voyager 2 flybys. We extend our previous procedure by fitting more parameters of the developmental ephemerides. Additionally, we present here the values for Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 Jupiter ranging normal points (and incorporate these data as well).

dark matter Deep Space Network DSN Voyager Neptune↗

Analytic Confusion Matrix Bounds for Fault Detection and Isolation Using a Sum-of-Squared- Residuals Approach

Given a system which can fail in 1 or n different ways, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithm uses sensor data in order to determine which fault is the most likely to have occurred. The effectiveness of an FDI algorithm can be quantified by a confusion matrix, which i ndicates the probability that each fault is isolated given that each fault has occurred. Confusion matrices are often generated with simulation data, particularly for complex systems. In this paper we perform FDI using sums of squares of sensor residuals (SSRs). We assume that the sensor residuals are Gaussian, which gives the SSRs a chi-squared distribution. We then generate analytic lower and upper bounds on the confusion matrix elements. This allows for the generation of optimal sensor sets without numerical simulations. The confusion matrix bound s are verified with simulated aircraft engine data.

Simon, Dan↗

Bifurcation Analysis Using Rigorous Branch and Bound Methods

For the study of nonlinear dynamic systems, it is important to locate the equilibria and bifurcations occurring within a specified computational domain. This paper proposes a new approach for solving these problems and compares it to the numerical continuation method. The new approach is based upon branch and bound and utilizes rigorous enclosure techniques to yield outer bounding sets of both the equilibrium and local bifurcation manifolds. These sets, which comprise the union of hyper-rectangles, can be made to be as tight as desired. Sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and bifurcation points taking the form of algebraic inequality constraints in the state-parameter space are used to calculate their enclosures directly. The enclosures for the bifurcation sets can be computed independently of the equilibrium manifold, and are guaranteed to contain all solutions within the computational domain. A further advantage of this method is the ability to compute a near-maximally sized hyper-rectangle of high dimension centered at a fixed parameter-state point whose elements are guaranteed to exclude all bifurcation points. This hyper-rectangle, which requires a global description of the bifurcation manifold within the computational domain, cannot be obtained otherwise. A test case, based on the dynamics of a UAV subject to uncertain center of gravity location, is used to illustrate the efficacy of the method by comparing it with numerical continuation and to evaluate its computational complexity.

Smith, Andrew P.↗

An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Turbulence Model Closure Coefficients for Transonic Wall-Bounded Flows

The goal of this work was to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of commonly used turbulence models in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes codes due to uncertainty in the values of closure coefficients for transonic, wall-bounded flows and to rank the contribution of each coefficient to uncertainty in various output flow quantities of interest. Specifically, uncertainty quantification of turbulence model closure coefficients was performed for transonic flow over an axisymmetric bump at zero degrees angle of attack and the RAE 2822 transonic airfoil at a lift coefficient of 0.744. Three turbulence models were considered: the Spalart-Allmaras Model, Wilcox (2006) k-w Model, and the Menter Shear-Stress Trans- port Model. The FUN3D code developed by NASA Langley Research Center was used as the flow solver. The uncertainty quantification analysis employed stochastic expansions based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos as an efficient means of uncertainty propagation. Several integrated and point-quantities are considered as uncertain outputs for both CFD problems. All closure coefficients were treated as epistemic uncertain variables represented with intervals. Sobol indices were used to rank the relative contributions of each closure coefficient to the total uncertainty in the output quantities of interest. This study identified a number of closure coefficients for each turbulence model for which more information will reduce the amount of uncertainty in the output significantly for transonic, wall-bounded flows.

Schaefer, John↗

Implicit Formulations of Bounded-Impulse Trajectory Models for Preliminary Interplanetary Low-Thrust Analysis

The bounded-impulse approach to low-thrust interplanetary trajectory optimization is widely used. In an effort to efficiently implement this approach using NASA’s OpenMDAO optimization software, the authors have implemented implicit formulations of the forward shooting/backwards-shooting methods commonly used in bounded-impulse models. These implicit approaches allow for vectorization of the underlying calculations which can significantly reduce runtime in interpreted languages. An implicit approach may be either converged by using an underlying nonlinear solver to converge the state propagation, or as a constraint in an optimizer-driven multiple-shooting approach. Significant computational efficiency gains are realized through the utilization of the modular approach to unified derivatives. Further computational efficiency is achieved by capitalizing on the sparsity of the constraint Jacobian matrix. This work demonstrates that a vectorized multiple-shooting approach for propagating a state-time history is superior in terms of computational efficiency as the number of segments in the state-propagation is increased.

Falck, Robert D↗

Ultraviolet Photooxidation of Smectite-Bound Fe(II) and Implications for the Origin of Martian Nontronites

Clay minerals detected with orbital and in situ instruments in ancient Martian terrains constrain Mars' climate and aqueous alteration history. Early in its history, Mars experienced an atmospheric redox change and iron-bearing clay minerals may preserve the effects of that transition. Ferrous smectites, the thermodynamically predicted product of chemical weathering of basalts under anoxic conditions, may have undergone oxidation by exposure to chemical oxidants in the atmosphere or regolith, or by direct photooxidation at the surface. To assess these potential oxidation pathways, ferrous trioctahedral smectites of varying initial iron content were synthesized and subjected to oxidation by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Experimental UV irradiation under an anoxic atmosphere equivalent to approximately 7 years of flux on the Martian surface caused partial oxidation of smectite-bound Fe (Fe3+/ΣFe = 16–18%) and octahedral sheet contraction. Metal-OH vibrational bands in visible/near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra of oxidized smectites changed in band depth and asymmetry with higher iron content. X-ray diffraction patterns of UV irradiated samples indicate the formation of a mixed di- and trioctahedral smectite or a secondary nontronite phase, possibly on the surfaces of higher iron content smectites. These experiments suggest that UV irradiation is able to oxidize structurally bound iron in smectites without the presence of other chemical oxidants. Photooxidation may have influenced the mineralogy, both syndepositionally and postdepositionally, of Martian alteration assemblages formed near the surface and this process needs not be limited to one part of their formation history. Plain Language Summary: Martian mineral assemblages observed with orbiters and rover instruments allow us to understand the planet's past climate and aqueous activity. Hydrated minerals that contain Fe(II) are of particular interest as they would have been affected by the early atmosphere becoming more oxidizing overtime, changing the structural iron into Fe(III). In this study, we synthesized Fe(II) smectites with varying iron content and irradiated them with an ultraviolet (UV) light source to test whether they could be photooxidized. Iron in the smectite minerals was incompletely oxidized by UV radiation after being exposed for the equivalent of approximately 7 years of exposure on the early Mars surface. The smectites with higher iron content showed more changes with photooxidation in their visible/near infrared spectra as well as in their X-ray diffraction patterns, two datasets collected by instruments on currently active Martian missions. These results suggest that UV photooxidation is a plausible contributor to the mineralogy and redox state of clay mineral assemblages observed at the Martian surface.

V. B. Rivera Banuchi↗

Under-Constrained SEE Data: Implications for Estimating and Bounding SEE Rates

Increasingly scarce SEE testing resources and rapid growth of the New Space sector have increased the prevalence of under-constrained SEE data. We develop Monte Carlo tools to assess implications for SEE rate estimation. We also show that Bayesian Priors based on large datasets of SEL susceptible parts can augment under-constrained data and improve bounds on SEL rates. The resulting Bayesian Priors are also useful for bounding system SEL risk.

Single-event effect↗

Analysis of Nonlinear Shrinkage for the Bound Metal Deposition Manufacturing using Multi-scale Approach

We consider problem of nonlinear shrinkage of the metal part during bound metal deposition manufacturing on the ground and in zero-G. To analyze this problem we developed multi-scale physics-based approach that spans atomistic dynamics at the scale of nanoseconds and the full part shrinkage at the time scale of hours. Using this approach we estimated the key parameters of the problem including grain boundary width, coefficient of surface diffusion, initial redistribution of particles during debinding stage, micro-structure evolution from round particles to densely packed grains and corresponding change of the total and chemical free energy, and sintering stress. The introduced method was used to predict shrinkage at the level of two particles, filament cross-section, sub-model, and the whole green, brown, and metal parts. To further improve accuracy and reliability of the shrinkage predictions we propose concept of intelligent additive manufacturing of metal powders in space that combines the strengths of both physics-based and data-driven methods of analysis of AM.

bound metal deposition↗

Multi-Scale Modelling of the Bound Metal Deposition Manufacturing of Ti6Al4V

Nonlinear shrinkage of the metal part during manufacturing by bound metal deposition, both on the ground and under microgravity, is considered. A multi-scale physics-based approach is developed to address the problem. It spans timescales from atomistic dynamics on the order of nanoseconds to full-part shrinkage on the order of hours. This approach enables estimation of the key parameters of the problem, including the widths of grain boundaries, the coefficient of surface diffusion, the initial redistribution of particles during the debinding stage, the evolution of the microstructure from round particles to densely-packed grains, the corresponding changes in the total and chemical free energies, and the sintering stress. The method has been used to predict shrinkage at the levels of two particles, of the filament cross-section, of the sub-model, and of the whole green, brown, and metal parts.

Nonlinear shrinkage↗

Life Cycle Assessment and Design of LignoBlock: A Lignin Bound Block on the Path Towards a Green Transition of the Construction Industry

Lignin-based biopolymer-bound soil composites (BSCs) are a new class of sustainable construction materials that utilize a bio-based biopolymer — lignin — as a binder. Prior use of lignin suggests that lignin is a promising candidate for the development of bio-based construction materials. Inspired by these applications, lignin-based BSCs were developed using lignoboost lignin, lignoforce lignin, alkali lignin, and hydrolysis lignin. Uni-axial compressive testing of lignin-based BSC shows that the compressive strength for these BSCs range from 1.6–8.1 MPa, which makes them appropriate for low compressive strength construction applications. We performed a life cycle assessment (LCA) of lignin-based BSC, with the functional unit being a CMU-sized block ( V =6423 cm -3 ). The major advantage of BSC lies in the elimination of ordinary portland cement, which is common to many construction materials, including many forms of concrete. Furthermore, the use of lignin in lignin-based BSC results in carbon sequestration (lignin ≈ 60 wt% carbon), potentially making construction materials made from lignin-based BSC carbon negative. Additionally, a design guide for estimating the life cycle carbon footprint of lignin-based BSC for a required compressive strength was developed. By utilizing the results from material tests and the LCA, designers are now able to use lignin effectively in construction applications, as they can now design lignin-based BSC for a target compressive strength with a full understanding of the life cycle carbon footprint implications.

Lignin↗