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DOE OSTI2026

One Earth Energy Static and Dynamic Reservoir Modeling

This report presents the static and dynamic reservoir modeling conducted for the CarbonSAFE Phase III Illinois Storage Corridor project to assess the feasibility of commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the Mt. Simon Sandstone at the One Earth Energy (OEE) site in McLean County, Illinois. Three-dimensional geocellular models of the Mt. Simon storage complex were developed in Petrel ® by integrating petrophysical log data, core analyses, and seismic surveys from the OEE #1 stratigraphic test well and two nearby wells, with multiple model versions created as new data became available. Dynamic reservoir simulations, performed using Landmark's Nexus software, progressed through three phases (preliminary, sensitivity, and UIC Class VI permit studies) evaluating injection scenarios across varying rates, well orientations, permeability models, and multi-well configurations. Results demonstrate that commercial-scale storage is feasible: three injection wells spaced approximately one mile apart can store a total of 90 million tonnes of CO 2 over 20 years, producing a combined plume with an equivalent radius of 3.2 miles and a maximum pressure-front-defined Area of Review of 178 mi 2 at the end of injection that diminishes to 34 mi 2 after 50 years of post-injection monitoring. Sensitivity analyses indicate that a 20% change in porosity or permeability yields approximately a 7% change in AoR radius, and that perforating the high-permeability arkosic zone minimizes the pressure front compared to injection in the upper Mt. Simon Sandstone.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Analysis of Renewable Diesel Fuels Produced with Waste Feedstocks

Wet waste feedstocks represent an important category of resources that could be utilized to produce biofuels. Diversion of the wet waste resources from going through conventional waste management practices to utilization as feedstocks for energy production also benefits from avoided cost and pollutant emissions of waste management and disposal. This study investigates the economic and environmental implications of producing bio-blendstocks for mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines from two waste-to-fuel pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from yellow grease, and swine manure hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) followed by biocrude upgrading. Detailed process models were developed for both pathways, which informed the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA). Conventional swine manure management practice was also modeled in detail as the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the swine manure HTL pathway. The estimated minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) were $4.47/gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and $3.57/GGE for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively. The life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the two pathways were 11.2 and -33.3 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways. The credits of avoided emissions from conventional swine manure management were the main reason for the negative GHG emissions of the swine manure HTL pathway. The marginal GHG emissions abatement costs were estimated to be $100 – $253/tonne CO2e and $5 – $103/tonne CO2e for the yellow grease HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively, for a diesel price ranging between $2.0/GGE and $3.5/GGE. Since the yellow grease HEFA pathway is already commercialized, it can benefit from the $200/tonne carbon credit in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market, which could help the yellow grease HEFA pathway to achieve near-zero marginal GHG emissions abatement cost.

renewable diesel, techno economic analysis, life c↗

DOE OSTI2023

2022 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies

The 2022 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates: time-series through 2050 for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies; scenarios for conventional and alternative fuels. It details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as natural gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2022 Transportation ATB vehicle data are specifically for cars powered by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, gasoline hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell powertrains and for trucks powered by diesel, diesel hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Fuels and blendstocks include gasoline, ethanol, blendstock for oxygenate blending, diesel, diesel from biomass, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, aviation fuel, and marine fuel. At this time, the ATB does not include other vehicles such as buses, 2- and 3-wheeled motorized vehicles, or non-road vehicles such as aircraft, vessels, locomotives, and those for industry and agriculture. See "ATB Transportation Website" resource below for more project information.

2022↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno‐economic feasibility analysis of engineered energycane‐based biorefinery co‐producing biodiesel and ethanol

Abstract High feedstock cost and low oil yields per unit of land from temperate oilseed crops limit the growth of commercial‐scale biodiesel production. Recently, highly productive crops, such as sugarcane and energycane, have been engineered to accumulate triacylglycerides (TAGs) that allow the production of far more industrial vegetable oil than previously possible. A proof‐of‐concept suggests that biodiesel production from engineered energycane will be possible. However, before making efforts for scale‐up, it is critical to understand the commercial feasibility and economic competitiveness of this process. This study performs techno‐economic analysis of a unique biorefinery processing energycane to co‐produce biodiesel and ethanol. Comprehensive process simulation models were developed for two scenarios: (i) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and (ii) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and hydrolysis of carbohydrates in bagasse. Based on the target levels, the analysis was performed for energycane containing 0%, 5%, and 7.7% TAGs (d.b.). The biodiesel from engineered energycane was found economically viable and competitive to soybean biodiesel. Although the capital investment is higher compared to the soybean biodiesel plant, the biodiesel production costs ($0.66–$0.9/L) were lower than soybean biodiesel ($0.91/L). Biorefinery‐scenario‐1 processing energycane containing 7.7% TAG produces biodiesel with profitability (IRR 7.84) slightly lower than soybean biodiesel (IRR 8.3), but yields five times of biodiesel per unit land and is self‐sustainable for energy requirements. The surplus electricity can displace fossil electricity and provide environmental benefits. Monte Carlo simulation indicated that biorefinery is profitable with a 29%–65% probability (NPV > 0) which is largely controlled by feedstock composition and biodiesel market price. It is important to note that energycane can be grown on the marginal rainfed lands in S.E. USA, where soybean would not be viable. Biodiesel from engineered energycane would therefore be complementary to soydiesel in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies

The 2024 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates: time-series through 2050 for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies; scenarios for conventional and alternative fuels. It details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as natural gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2024 Transportation ATB vehicle data are specifically for cars powered by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, gasoline hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell powertrains and for trucks powered by diesel, diesel hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Fuels and blendstocks include gasoline, ethanol, blendstock for oxygenate blending, diesel, diesel from biomass, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, aviation fuel, and marine fuel. At this time, the ATB does not include other vehicles such as 2- and 3-wheeled motorized vehicles, or non-road vehicles such as aircraft, vessels, locomotives, and those for industry and agriculture. See "Transportation ATB Website" resource below for more project information.

2024↗

DOE OSTI2026

GRIDCERF - Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility

The Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (GRIDCERF) data package is a high-resolution product to evaluate siting suitability for renewable and non-renewable power plants in the conterminous United States. GRIDCERF offers hundreds of individual suitability layers for use with both renewable and non-renewable power plant technology configurations in a harmonized format that can be easily ingested by geospatially-enabled modeling software. It also provides pre-compiled technology-specific suitability layers and allows for user customization to robustly address science objectives when evaluating varying future conditions. GRIDCERF data can be directly used with the CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) model to site power plants at a 1km resolution. GRIDCERF includes composite technology siting suitability raster layers for the following utility scale technology configurations. Note that, in addition to technology sub-types shown below, various cooling types are also included (recirculating, pond, once-through, recirculating-seawater, dry-hybrid, or dry) for various technologies. Biomass Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Coal Conventional (with or without CCS) IGCC (with or without CCS) Natural Gas Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Geothermal Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) - Class 1 through Class 5 resource potential Nuclear Gen 2 Light Water Reactor (LWR) Gen 3 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Gen 3 AP1000 Refined Liquids Combined-cycle (CC) (with or without CCS) Turbine Solar Photovoltaic (PV) - for capacity factors in the range of 6-18% Utility-scale Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) - for capacity factors in the range of 24-46% Tower Wind (Onshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 5-50% 80m hub height 100m hub height 120m hub height 140m hub height Wind (Offshore) - for capacity factors in the range of 25-60% 100m hub height 140m hub height 160m hub height

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

GRIDCERF - Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic and Environmental Analysis to Evaluate the Potential Value of Co-Optima Diesel Bioblendstocks to Petroleum Refiners

The U.S. petroleum refining sector is undergoing a period of historic transformation, catalyzed by the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. Diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks have gained traction, owing to their superior fuel properties and environmental performance as compared to traditional petroleum fuels. This work couples refinery linear programming models with life cycle assessment to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits, and trade-offs, of blending diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks at petroleum refineries. Linear programming models were developed in Aspen Process Industry Modeling Systems (PIMS) for three representative petroleum refinery configurations of differing complexity. Seven diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks: 4-butoxyheptane, 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane, soy biodiesel, sludge hydrothermal liquefaction diesel, polyoxymethylene ethers, renewable diesel, and hexyl hexanoate, were investigated to identify key fuel properties that influence refineries' economics and to track the effect of adding bioblendstocks on refinery-wide cradle-to-gate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. These analyses considered blending levels from 10 to 30 vol% and fuel demand projections over the period 2040 to 2050. This analysis determines that bioblendstock sulfur content and cetane number are the primary fuel attributes with the potential to provide value to refiners. Life cycle assessment results indicate that the use of diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks can reduce cradle-to-gate refinery GHG emissions by up to ~ 40 % relative to conventional refinery operations when considering carbon uptake in the supply chain of the bioblendstock. Refinery-wide marginal GHG abatement costs range from 120 to 3,600 USD2016/metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent avoided across the scenarios evaluated. Reducing the price of bioblendstocks is identified as a key to their adoption.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

TEA Modeling to Quantify Economic Implications for Biorefinery Processing of Isolated Anatomical Fractions of Corn Stover

The Feedstock-Conversion Interface Consortium (FCIC; https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/01/f70/beto-fcic-overview-web.pdf), a collaboration of nine national laboratory partners, seeks to understand impacts of feedstock attributes on biorefinery performance. It is hypothesized that different individual anatomical fractions of corn stover vary in composition and recalcitrance, such that processing each fraction on its own through dedicated campaigns may enable better biorefinery economics overall relative to processing the whole stover material. This presentation focuses on techno-economic analysis (TEA) modeling to quantify the yield and cost ramifications for processing isolated anatomical fractions of corn stover through a low-temperature conversion biorefinery, reflecting a biochemical processing pathway consisting of biomass deconstruction through pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis, sugar fermentation and upgrading to hydrocarbon fuels, and lignin upgrading to value-added coproducts. Commercial-scale process simulation and economic evaluation leveraged experimental and analytical data from FCIC researchers for conversion of whole corn stover plus three individual anatomical fractions (cobs, husks, and stalks) across key steps of the conversion process. Our assessment found encouraging potential for biorefinery economic gains that may be achieved through this approach. TEA results indicated fuel yields varying from 29-44 gallons gasoline equivalent (GGE)/dry ton for the individual anatomical fractions compared to whole stover at 34 GGE/ton, equating to minimum fuel selling prices (MFSPs) between $6.37-$10.18/GGE for the fractions versus $8.76/GGE for whole stover (when lignin is burned), or $9.15-$15.19/GGE for the fractions versus $13.11/GGE for whole stover (when lignin is upgraded to coproducts, based on current experimental performance levels). Cobs and husks demonstrated the ability to achieve the highest fuel yields and lowest MFSPs, outperforming whole stover, while stalks led to the opposite result, as a composite reflection of compositional differences and process convertibility. Notably, even when taking the weighted average of the results reflecting each anatomical fraction weighted by its corresponding makeup of corn stover, this feasibility TEA screening supports feedstock cost allowances on the order of roughly $22-$29/ton as may reflect accommodating additional biomass fractionation equipment during feedstock pre-processing upstream of the conversion biorefinery gate to separate corn stover into such constituent fractions. Or viewed differently, the weighted average MFSP for the fractions was found to be $0.31-$0.32/GGE lower than the MFSP for the whole stover basis across either lignin scenario, when maintaining a fixed biomass feedstock cost. These findings highlight favorable implications for biorefinery economics as may be achieved by moving to a staged campaign approach for processing different corn stover fractions sequentially. Further opportunities exist for future work to fill in data gaps for remaining anatomical constituents (e.g. leaves) that were not included in the initial experimental studies, though are expected to maintain similar trends.

biochemical processing pathway↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intensified biogas to liquid (IBGTL) Process: Experimental validation and modeling analysis

The Intensified Biogas to Liquid (IBGTL) process aims to overcome traditional economy-of-scale barriers in biogas-to-liquid fuel production by integrating bi-reforming and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) in a single IBGTL reactor. This reactor operates at uniform pressure with different optimized temperatures across two zones for efficient conversion, utilizing multifunctional bi-reforming catalysts and high-temperature FTS catalysts. Bench scale experiments were carried out using landfill gas (LFG) in a single pass process, and the yield data from these experiments were fed into process scale-up design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) across four scenarios: (1) a single pass process, (2) a process with material recycling, (3) a process with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) co-product recovery, and (4) a process with electricity generation from the fuel gas produced. TEA identified Scenario 2 as the most cost-effective, achieving a Minimum Fuel Selling Price (MFSP) of $\$4.59$ per gallon, competitive with the current national diesel price of $\$4.7$ per gallon. However, comparison with the conventional two-reactor system highlights the need for catalyst performance improvements. Sensitivity analysis emphasized the importance of manufacturing cost, liquid fuel yield, and biogas flow rate. Further analysis determined that the IBGTL process must achieve a diesel mass yield beyond 11.7% to surpass the economic viability of the conventional TriFTS (Tri-reforming followed by Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis) process. If the IBGTL process attains the TriFTS yield of up to 17%, the resulting MFSP could be approximately 31% lower than the current TriFTS MFSP. Furthermore, renewable energy credits and carbon credits can further enhance the economic viability of BGTL processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis

This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Illinois Storage Corridor, CarbonSAFE Phase III: UIC Class VI Permitting Plan

The Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project evaluated two distinct sites to determine the feasibility of commercial-scale CO₂ storage at each. The project leveraged the region's exceptional geological characteristics, particularly the well-characterized Cambro-Ordovician Storage Complex, to enable permanent geological storage of more than 50 million tonnes of CO₂ over 30 years. The two storage sites are located at One Earth Energy (OEE) facility in northcentral Illinois and Prairie State Generating Company (PSGC) in southcentral Illinois. Once operational, these facilities will combine to capture and store more than 6.5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year, positioning the ISC among the largest carbon storage regions globally. Preliminary homogeneous dynamic modeling based on regional and site-specific reservoir characteristics indicates promising injection capabilities at both locations. For the OEE site, modeling predicts a maximum allowable injection rate of 3.7 MTPA, with a baseline scenario of 1.7 MTPA over 30 years producing a CO₂ plume radius of 1.4 miles at end of injection. For the PSGC site, incorporating recent well data, modeling indicates a single-well maximum injection rate of 2.1 MTPA, with a plume radius of 4.2 miles at end of injection for the 60 MT over 30 years scenario. The primary objective of this CarbonSAFE Phase III project is to develop and submit Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) permit applications to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 5. The permitting plan outlines comprehensive site characterization, Area of Review delineation, monitoring programs, well construction designs, financial responsibility provisions, and post-injection site care procedures necessary to demonstrate safe, permanent CO₂ storage protective of underground sources of drinking water. Three UIC Class VI permit applications for the OEE site were submitted to EPA in October 2022 and are progressing through technical review, with final permit decision projected by June 2026. Through five rounds of Requests for Additional Information and responses, the applications have been refined to address computational modeling, area of review delineation, well integrity, monitoring protocols, and financial assurance requirements. For the PSGC site, finalized characterization and permitting documentation was delivered directly to the facility in July 2023 due to business constraints precluding formal federal regulatory submission. This comprehensive permitting effort builds upon extensive prior subsurface evaluations and demonstration projects that have confirmed the feasibility of widespread commercial-scale carbon storage in the region.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization for Bioenergy Systems

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge (Langholtz, 2024 ) seeks to generate 35 billion gallons of SAF each year by 2050, with corn stover, an agricultural byproduct, playing a key role as a feedstock. This study develops an optimization framework to enhance the quality and quantity of corn stover while ensuring economic and environmental viability. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model, we simulate the effects of cover crops on rotation yield, soil moisture balance, and nitrogen cycling across diverse climates and soils. The model outputs, including yield data and soil quality changes, inform a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. This model aims to maximize economic and environmental returns by incorporating production costs, direct and indirect income, and environmental incentives. The optimization model evaluates 280 agriculture management plans composed of various crop management strategies, including corn stover removal rates, cover crop adoption, and fertilization practices. It seeks to identify the optimal combination of crop and tillage decisions for each subfield, maximizing profits while enhancing soil carbon sequestration and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Outputs include detailed subfield locations, optimal management plans, and profits per hectare and per acre, allowing for comparison with literature values on farm profits. This study provides a robust optimization framework supporting the SAF Grand Challenge by proposing economically viable and environmentally sustainable strategies for corn stover utilization. The findings highlight corn stover's potential as a sustainable feedstock for SAF production, offering practical solutions to enhance its quality and quantity while maintaining soil health. Idaho is used as a case study to demonstrate the framework's applicability and effectiveness in real-world scenarios. Langholtz, M. H., Davis, M., Hellwinckel, C., De La Torre Ugarte, D., Efroymson, R., Jacobson, R., Milbrandt, A., Coleman, A., Davis, R., Kline, K. L., Badgett, A., Curran, S., Schmidt, E., Theiss, T., Fried, J., English, B., Lambert, L., Cook, H., Field, J., ... Walker, L. (2024). 2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources. https://doi.org/10.2172/2441098 DSSAT Foundation. (2025). Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). Retrieved from https://dssat.net/

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Life cycle analysis of polylactic acids from different wet waste feedstocks

Producing a valuable chemical product through diversion of wet wastes can simultaneously resolve the problems associated with increasing wastes and greenhouse gas emissions from conventional chemical production processes. In this work, we investigated the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, water, and fossil-fuel consumption for waste-derived polylactic acids (PLA) from three different waste feedstocks, namely wastewater sludge, food waste, and swine manure, using the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model. The decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based resins with the waste-derived polymer was also investigated. The results show that swine manure-to-PLA pathway was the least carbon intensive (—1.4 kgCO 2 e/kg) among the three waste-to-PLA pathways on a cradle-to-grave basis, followed by the food waste case (—1.3 kgCO 2 e/kg) and then by the wastewater sludge case (0.6 kgCO 2 e/kg). In the baseline scenario, all three waste-to-PLA pathways were less carbon intensive than both fossil-based PET and HDPE on a cradle-to-grave basis: 66% (vs. PET) and 56% (vs. HDPE), 171 and 192%, 181 and 205% reduction in GHG emissions for wastewater sludge-, food waste-, and swine manure-to-PLA pathway, respectively. For all sensitivity cases investigated, the food waste- and swine manure-to-PLA pathways were significantly less carbon intensive than their fossil-counterparts. In terms of the annual decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based PET or HDPE, the wastewater sludge- and food waste-pathway showed higher mitigation potential than the swine manure-pathway: i) 18–28 kilotons CO 2 e-reduction per year for wastewater sludge pathway; ii) 23–26 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for food waste pathway; and iii) about 5 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for swine manure pathway depending on the type of conventional resin replaced. However, given the abundant availability of the swine manure feedstocks across the United States, the decarbonization potential of swine manure-based pathway can also increase as the plant capacity or the number of plants grow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Minimum GHG emissions and energy consumption of U.S. PET and polyolefin packaging supply chains in a circular economy

There is a wide agreement on the urgency of transforming linear management of plastics towards a circular economy model. However, no clear pathways exist as to required recycling technologies involved and system-wide environmental impacts. This study explores such pathways in the U.S. for the most commonly used packaging plastics through a combination of mechanical and emerging advanced recycling technologies. A system optimization model aimed at minimizing environmental impacts was developed to determine optimal end-of-life (EOL) management and locations of existing and emerging U.S. recycling infrastructures. Our study includes material flows from virgin resin production through semi-manufacturing processes to existing EOL disposal and recycling processes. An optimized circular plastics packaging system achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings of up to 28% and cumulative energy demand (CED) savings of up to 46%, compared to the linear economy. Moreover, these savings of GHG emissions and CED impacts represent a reduction of 0.16% and 0.49% compared to annual U.S. GHG emissions and energy consumption in 2022, respectively. The optimal recycling rates and systems-level circularity ranged from 78–99% and 57–75%, respectively. Increased energy savings led to increased GHG emissions showing a potential trade-off between GHG emissions and energy. Analysis of 40 scenarios showed the importance of material collection distances, blend limit of mechanically recycled resins, process yields, and mandated recycling rates for achieving a sustainable circular economy of plastics.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗