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At least 199 records · Page 11

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation↗

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Evaluation of Tritium Behavior in Forest Vegetation for the Purpose of Determining Appropriate Non-Zero Deposition Velocities for Tritium Oxide

Modeling and field measurements have been conducted between 2019 and 2021 to assess the practicality of using a non-zero deposition velocity for safety basis estimates of tritium oxide fate and transport modeling. A model was developed which used a complex deposition algorithm designed to assess how tritium oxide would mix based on the turbulent motions and wind speed effects that the forest canopy has on the atmosphere. The model was driven based on measurements of wind and turbulence taken from the Aiken AmeriFlux Tower which measures these properties at five levels located within and just above the forest. The model was then validated against a series of field experiments which were designed to test the model predictions and estimate the deposition velocity occurring over the forest environment at the Savannah River Site. The field releases used deuterium oxide as a surrogate for tritium oxide and was released as a fine mist which rapidly evaporated, creating a gaseous tracer in the atmosphere. Using air samplers, the elevations in deuterium concentration in the air relative to background measurements was assessed and then modeled. Generally, the numerical model tended to underpredict the amount of deuterium being mixed from above the canopy to the forest floor, indicating that the predictions it provides are still conservative relative to what was measured during the field experiments. Across a suite of modeling runs, the 95 th and 99 th percentile deposition velocities were estimated to be 1.2 and 0.7 cm s -1 , respectively. Estimated deposition velocities in the 2021 field experiments, which specifically assessed a release above the forest canopy and its mixing to the surface, predicted deposition velocities ranging from 1.75 to 6.61 cm s -1 . While these field releases do not cover all possible meteorological conditions, it seems appropriate to use a non-zero deposition velocity when performing safety-basis modeling of tritium oxide. The recommendation presented in this report is to use 1.0 cm s -1 . This is between the 95 th and 99 th percentile value estimated from the modeling study, suggesting it should be appropriate for the majority of release scenarios given the model’s apparent conservatism relative to field measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Intra-Cell Thermal Front Propagation in Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Issues

Thermal runaway (TR), a critical failure mode in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), poses significant safety risks and hinders wider application of LIBs. TR typically begins at a localized heat source and spreads across the cell. Understanding thermal front propagation (TFP) characteristics, such as front and velocity, is crucial for assessing energy release and temperature distribution for battery hazardous estimation. Recent studies assume that TR within cells propagates at a near-constant velocity, based on the reaction kinetics and thermal properties. Here, in this study, an intra-battery TR model is further proposed and it indicates that TFP velocity stabilizes when the front is distanced from the heat source. Theoretical estimates for propagation velocity and front are developed and validated through numerical simulations and experimental tests from the NREL Battery Failure Databank. The energy release rate during TFP and the impact of preheating based on a point heat source are explored. This work clarifies the long-standing clouds of the thermal font propagation behaviors within the single cell, highlights the power and beauty of mathematics modeling to describe the complicated thermal behaviors, and provides important guidelines for thermal hazardous understanding for next-generation batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Transient Testing of Nuclear Fuels Performed in the Original Operation of TREAT (2nd ed.)

This report provides summary information on experiments performed in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) during its original operation from 1959-1994, and more specifically, before the TREAT core was upgraded at the end of the 1980s. The tests performed since about 1970 are summarized in considerable detail. Earlier tests are noted by their designated series and by some parameters that help to identify and distinguish each series from the others. The detailed summary descriptions are intended to help inform future researchers regarding the large, historical, empirical data base generated from that 35-year span during which hundreds of TREAT experiments were performed to investigate and demonstrate the transient behavior of a wide variety of nuclear fuels during severe off-normal and accident conditions -- using direct nuclear heating of the test samples. That empirical basis is foundational and valuable for guiding future qualification and safety evaluation of improved fuel designs and for future transient test planning and performance in TREAT. Since Edition 1 of this report, descriptions of the following test series have been added: D, E, EOS, F, H, J, R, RX, and S.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Transient Testing of Nuclear Fuels Performed in the Original Operation of TREAT, Third Edition

TREAT core was upgraded at the end of the 1980s. The tests performed since about 1970 are summarized in considerable detail. Earlier tests are noted by their designated series and by some parameters that help to identify and distinguish each series from the others. The detailed summary descriptions are intended to help inform future researchers regarding the large, historical, empirical data base generated from that 35-year span during which hundreds of TREAT experiments were performed to investigate and demonstrate the transient behavior of a wide variety of nuclear fuels during severe off-normal and accident conditions -- using direct nuclear heating of the test samples. That empirical basis is foundational and valuable for guiding future qualification and safety evaluation of improved fuel designs and for future transient test planning and performance in TREAT. The second edition of this report added descriptions of the following test series: D, E, EOS, F, H, J, R, RX, and S. This third edition includes descriptions of an additional four test series: the HUT, HOP (& HUC), ORNL-TR, and PNL.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Periodic Material-Based Seismic Base Isolators for Small Modular Reactors

Important structures such as nuclear power plants should experience very little vibrations in order to maintain the safety of the nuclear facilities during seismic events. Protection of these structures by seismic isolators requires the isolators to provide seismic isolation irrespective of the direction of excitations and to develop a stable response without rocking. Conventional seismic isolation systems, however, can only fulfill partial requirements for the seismic protection. This study adopts the principle of periodic materials for seismic isolation. These materials exhibit unique properties of frequency band gaps, where incoming waves with frequencies falling inside the frequency band gaps are forbidden. The new isolation systems, known as periodic foundations, function both as a structural foundation to support the gravitational weight of the superstructure and also as a seismic isolator. The isolation mechanism, hypothetically, can easily fulfill all the requirements for seismic protection of the critical facilities. This study focuses on the design of one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) periodic foundations for seismic isolation of small modular reactor (SMR) buildings. The theoretical study was first conducted to reveal the fundamental behavior of periodic foundations. Then global sensitivity analysis was utilized to study the effect of design parameters on the frequency band gaps. In addition, simple straight-forward design equations based on the sensitivity analysis are proposed for the design of periodic foundations. Utilizing the proposed equations, prototypes of 1D and 3D periodic foundations were designed to isolate an SMR building. Scaled models were fabricated and experimentally tested to validate the hypothesis and design. The periodic foundation structural systems were tested under various input waves, including seismic waves, in the horizontal and vertical directions and the torsional mode. The shake table test results show that the periodic foundations can reduce the acceleration response of the SMR building up to 90% in the horizontal direction and the torsional mode. As much as a 40% response reduction in the vertical direction is also observed. Moreover, the periodic foundation-isolated structure exhibited stable response with negligible rocking on the structure. This study proved the capability of periodic foundations to enhance the seismic safety of critical structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Approach for the Assessment of System Upset Resilience

This report describes an approach for the assessment of upset resilience that is applicable to systems in general, including safety-critical, real-time systems. For this work, resilience is defined as the ability to preserve and restore service availability and integrity under stated conditions of configuration, functional inputs and environmental conditions. To enable a quantitative approach, we define novel system service degradation metrics and propose a new mathematical definition of resilience. These behavioral-level metrics are based on the fundamental service classification criteria of correctness, detectability, symmetry and persistence. This approach consists of a Monte-Carlo-based stimulus injection experiment, on a physical implementation or an error-propagation model of a system, to generate a system response set that can be characterized in terms of dimensional error metrics and integrated to form an overall measure of resilience. We expect this approach to be helpful in gaining insight into the error containment and repair capabilities of systems for a wide range of conditions.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign 2019 Accomplishments

The mission of the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is to perform or support research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities to identify and mature innovative fuels and cladding materials and associated technologies with the potential to improve the performance and safety of current and future reactors; increase the efficient utilization of nuclear energy resources; contribute to enhancing proliferation resistance of the nuclear fuel cycle; and address challenges related to waste management and ultimate disposal. AFC pursues its mission objectives using a goal-oriented, science-based approach that seeks to establish a fundamental understanding of fuel and cladding behaviors under conditions that arise during fabrication, normal steady-state irradiation, off-normal transient scenarios, and storage/disposal. This approach includes advancing the theoretical understanding of fuel behavior, conducting fundamental and integral experiments, and supporting the mechanistic, multi-scale modeling of nuclear fuels to inform and guide fuel development projects, advance the technological readiness of promising fuel candidates, and ultimately support fuel qualification and licensing initiatives. In the area of advanced tools for the modeling and simulation of nuclear fuels, the AFC works in close partnership with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, participating with NEAMS in developing mechanistic fuel behavior models and providing experimental data to inform and validate its most advanced tools. Specifically, AFC objectives in thecoming five year horizon include: 1. support the industry-led development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) technologies with improved reliability and performance under normal operations and enhanced tolerance during hypothetical accident scenarios, with implementation of lead test rods/assemblies of one or more ATF concepts in commercial reactor(s) by or before 2022 and batch reloads of near-term concept(s) in the 2023-2026 timeframe; 2. lead research and development on innovative fuel and cladding technologies for applications to future advanced reactors, especially fast-spectrum reactors, including reactors that utilize both once-through and recycle scenarios; 3. continue the development and demonstration of a multi-scale,science-based approach to fuel development and testing, andcontribute to the establishment of a state-of-the-art R&D infrastructure necessary to accelerate the development of new fuel concepts; and collaborate with NEAMS on the development and validation of multi-scale, multi-physics, and increasingly predictive fuel performance models and codes. 4. collaborate with NEAMS on the development and validation of multi-scale, multi-physics, and increasingly predictive fuel performance models and codes.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Out-of-Pile Test of LVDT-Based Creep Test Rig at PWR Prototypical Conditions

New and improved materials are being considered to support the existing nuclear reactors and future next-generation reactors. The materials can significantly degrade and limit their properties in harsh reactor environments. To accurately understand the material’s degradation, real-time data is required under prototypic-irradiation conditions. Additionally, understanding the creep behavior of materials under harsh environments is essential for an evaluation of safety concerns. To provide these capabilities, the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) High Temperature Test Laboratory (HTTL) has developed several instrumented test rigs to obtain real-time data from specimens in well-controlled pressurized water reactor (PWR) coolant conditions in the Materials and Test Reactors (MTRs). This technical report focuses on INL’s efforts to evaluate and enhance the former prototype creep test rig that relied on linear variable differential transformers in laboratory settings. Specifically, the test rig is capable of detecting changes in the length of tensile specimen, which is useful for measuring thermal expansion and creep loading.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impacts of Irradiation Structural Behavior on Thermal Hydraulics Safety Analysis to Support MURR LEU Conversion

The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) located in Columbia, Missouri is one of six U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR), including one critical facility, that is actively collaborating with U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Material Management and Minimization (M3) Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply to convert from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU; ≥20 wt% U-235) to low-enriched uranium (LEU; <20 wt% U-235) fuel. A new type of very high-density LEU fuel based on an alloy of uranium and 10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is expected to allow the conversion to LEU of MURR, as well as four other USHPRR. MURR has been working with the Reactor Conversion Pillar at Argonne to perform fuel element design and fuel cycle performance analyses, steady-state thermal hydraulics safety analysis, and accident safety analyses in preparation for the conversion of MURR and to support a preliminary safety analysis report for conversion to LEU fuels. Subsequent analyses have also been performed, including transition cycles where all-fresh LEU fuel elements are introduced upon conversion and progressing through reactor operations the core is brought to equilibrium. Thermal hydraulics safety analyses performed as part of the above have employed an assumption on channel gap reduction due to burnup-related phenomena including fuel swelling, irradiation creep, and oxide layer buildup. Recently, a series of structural analyses have been performed on the MURR LEU fuel plates and an element due to significant differences between the plate and element designs of the MURR HEU and LEU fuels. In addition, NUREG-1537 indicates that structural phenomena are to be evaluated. Two separate types of structural analyses were performed for the MURR LEU fuel element: fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and irradiation thermo-mechanical. The FSI analysis evaluated the effects of hydraulic forces on the MURR LEU fuel element to quantify the flow-induced plate deflection, and a minimal impact to the channel gap thickness was predicted under prototypic and bounding conditions. The irradiation thermo-mechanical analysis evaluated the effects of fuel swelling, irradiation creep, and thermal expansion for the MURR LEU plates and the element for prototypic thermal and irradiation conditions based on a high-fidelity approach multiphysics approach. Overall, this thermo-mechanical analysis predicts smaller gap thickness changes in previously limiting regions. Larger changes are predicted in the middle of channels, and for end channels where power density is not typically a maximum. An additional thermo-mechanical analysis was performed for the outermost HEU fuel plate, which showed a similar magnitude of deflection as the outermost LEU plate. Due to substantial differences between the channel gap reductions assumed for the previous safety analyses and those predicted by the irradiation thermo-mechanical analysis, a need to evaluate their impact on the thermal hydraulics safety analyses arose. This report presents the results from the steady-state safety analyses for normal operation as well as the accident analyses for the two most limiting accident scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Experimental And Numerical Evaluation Of Gaseous Agents For Suppressing Cup-Burner Flames In Low Gravity

Longer duration missions to the moon, to Mars, and on the International Space Station (ISS) increase the likelihood of accidental fires. NASA's fire safety program for human-crewed space flight is based largely on removing ignition sources and controlling the flammability of the material on-board. There is ongoing research to improve the flammability characterization of materials in low gravity; however, very little research has been conducted on fire suppression in the low-gravity environment. Although the existing suppression systems aboard the Space Shuttle (halon 1301, CF3Br) and the ISS (CO2 or water-based form) may continue to be used, alternative effective agents or techniques are desirable for long-duration missions. The goal of the present investigation is to: (1) understand the physical and chemical processes of fire suppression in various gravity and O2 levels simulating spacecraft, Mars, and moon missions; (2) provide rigorous testing of analytical models, which include detailed combustion-suppression chemistry and radiation sub-models, so that the model can be used to interpret (and predict) the suppression behavior in low gravity; and (3) provide basic research results useful for advances in space fire safety technology, including new fire-extinguishing agents and approaches.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗

Graphics enhanced computer emulation for improved timing-race and fault tolerance control system analysis

A computer simulation system has been developed for the Space Shuttle's advanced Centaur liquid fuel booster rocket, in order to conduct systems safety verification and flight operations training. This simulation utility is designed to analyze functional system behavior by integrating control avionics with mechanical and fluid elements, and is able to emulate any system operation, from simple relay logic to complex VLSI components, with wire-by-wire detail. A novel graphics data entry system offers a pseudo-wire wrap data base that can be easily updated. Visual subsystem operations can be selected and displayed in color on a six-monitor graphics processor. System timing and fault verification analyses are conducted by injecting component fault modes and min/max timing delays, and then observing system operation through a red line monitor.

Szatkowski, G. P.↗

Human factors in space station architecture 1: Space station program implications for human factors research

The space station program is based on a set of premises on mission requirements and the operational capabilities of the space shuttle. These premises will influence the human behavioral factors and conditions on board the space station. These include: launch in the STS Orbiter payload bay, orbital characteristics, power supply, microgravity environment, autonomy from the ground, crew make-up and organization, distributed command control, safety, and logistics resupply. The most immediate design impacts of these premises will be upon the architectural organization and internal environment of the space station.

Cohen, M. M.↗

Preconceptual Design of Irradiated Fuel Salt Management System

The National Reactor Innovation Center was established by the U.S. Department of Energy to accelerate the demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors. To meet this mission, the National Reactor Innovation Center has developed the Laboratory for Operations and Testing in the U.S. (LOTUS) to support the first fast-spectrum molten salt reactor demonstration. The goal of this research is to understand the system requirements that may be applied to a molten salt reactor experiment in the LOTUS test bed and to perform systems analyses and preconceptual development of a storage container for the management of the irradiated molten salt fuel. This study proposes a set of irradiated fuel salt management processes for the molten salt reactor, from defueling to storage or disposal. For that, the historic Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has served as a crucial source of data for a mock application. This paper proposes a potential geometry for storing irradiated fuel salt based on MSRE data and the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport code. The geometry was analyzed for criticality safety under abnormal situations, such as water ingress and interaction between containers. Based on the determined configuration of the storage system, the decay heat produced from the irradiated fuel salts was calculated to provide a reasonable time scale of the dormancy period. Using the same geometry assumed above, the neutron and gamma dose rates from the irradiated fuel salt at the end of the dormancy period were estimated, which will be useful for understanding the handling and radiation protection requirements for handling the irradiated fuel salt. Lastly, a reactor in the LOTUS test bed could use chloride-based fuel as opposed to the fluoride-based fuel used in MSRE. Thus, a literature study provided data to understand the similarities and differences between the characteristics of fluoride- and chloride-based salts in terms of salt chemistry, material characteristics, postirradiation behavior, neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and heat removal. This study, together with the proposed irradiated fuel salt management processes, preliminary criticality calculations, decay heat, and dose rate estimates, provides a strong basis for future investigation into the management of irradiated fuel salts generated during molten salt reactor technology demonstrations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Systemic Analysis Approaches for Air Transportation

Air transportation system designers have had only limited success using traditional operations research and parametric modeling approaches in their analyses of innovations. They need a systemic methodology for modeling of safety-critical infrastructure that is comprehensive, objective, and sufficiently concrete, yet simple enough to be used with reasonable investment. The methodology must also be amenable to quantitative analysis so issues of system safety and stability can be rigorously addressed. However, air transportation has proven itself an extensive, complex system whose behavior is difficult to describe, no less predict. There is a wide range of system analysis techniques available, but some are more appropriate for certain applications than others. Specifically in the area of complex system analysis, the literature suggests that both agent-based models and network analysis techniques may be useful. This paper discusses the theoretical basis for each approach in these applications, and explores their historic and potential further use for air transportation analysis.

Conway, Sheila↗

A Preliminary Foil Gas Bearing Performance Map

Recent breakthrough improvements in foil gas bearing load capacity, high temperature tribological coatings and computer based modeling have enabled the development of increasingly larger and more advanced Oil-Free Turbomachinery systems. Successful integration of foil gas bearings into turbomachinery requires a step wise approach that includes conceptual design and feasibility studies, bearing testing, and rotor testing prior to full scale system level demonstrations. Unfortunately, the current level of understanding of foil gas bearings and especially their tribological behavior is often insufficient to avoid developmental problems thereby hampering commercialization of new applications. In this paper, a new approach loosely based upon accepted hydrodynamic theory, is developed which results in a "Foil Gas Bearing Performance Map" to guide the integration process. This performance map, which resembles a Stribeck curve for bearing friction, is useful in describing bearing operating regimes, performance safety margins, the effects of load on performance and limiting factors for foil gas bearings.

DellaCorte, Christopher↗

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.

Groen, Frank↗