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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Methods for Probabilistic Fault Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study

Health management systems that more accurately and quickly diagnose faults that may occur in different technical systems on-board a vehicle will play a key role in the success of future NASA missions. We discuss in this paper the diagnosis of abrupt continuous (or parametric) faults within the context of probabilistic graphical models, more specifically Bayesian networks that are compiled to arithmetic circuits. This paper extends our previous research, within the same probabilistic setting, on diagnosis of abrupt discrete faults. Our approach and diagnostic algorithm ProDiagnose are domain-independent; however we use an electrical power system testbed called ADAPT as a case study. In one set of ADAPT experiments, performed as part of the 2009 Diagnostic Challenge, our system turned out to have the best performance among all competitors. In a second set of experiments, we show how we have recently further significantly improved the performance of the probabilistic model of ADAPT. While these experiments are obtained for an electrical power system testbed, we believe they can easily be transitioned to real-world systems, thus promising to increase the success of future NASA missions.

Ricks, Brian W.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Diagnostic Challenge Competition: Probabilistic Techniques for Fault Diagnosis in Electrical Power Systems

Reliable systems health management is an important research area of NASA. A health management system that can accurately and quickly diagnose faults in various on-board systems of a vehicle will play a key role in the success of current and future NASA missions. We introduce in this paper the ProDiagnose algorithm, a diagnostic algorithm that uses a probabilistic approach, accomplished with Bayesian Network models compiled to Arithmetic Circuits, to diagnose these systems. We describe the ProDiagnose algorithm, how it works, and the probabilistic models involved. We show by experimentation on two Electrical Power Systems based on the ADAPT testbed, used in the Diagnostic Challenge Competition (DX 09), that ProDiagnose can produce results with over 96% accuracy and less than 1 second mean diagnostic time.

Ricks, Brian W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

Denney, Ewen↗
NASA NTRS2011

Bayesian Software Health Management for Aircraft Guidance, Navigation, and Control

Modern aircraft, both piloted fly-by-wire commercial aircraft as well as UAVs, more and more depend on highly complex safety critical software systems with many sensors and computer-controlled actuators. Despite careful design and V&V of the software, severe incidents have happened due to malfunctioning software. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to monitor the health of the on-board software and sensor system, and to perform advanced on-board diagnostic reasoning. We will focus on the approach to develop reliable and robust health models for the combined software and sensor systems.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2012

Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

Vatan, Farrokh↗
NASA NTRS2015

R2U2: Monitoring and Diagnosis of Security Threats for Unmanned Aerial Systems

We present R2U2, a novel framework for runtime monitoring of security properties and diagnosing of security threats on-board Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). R2U2, implemented in FPGA hardware, is a real-time, REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, UNOBTRUSIVE Unit for security threat detection. R2U2 is designed to continuously monitor inputs from the GPS and the ground control station, sensor readings, actuator outputs, and flight software status. By simultaneously monitoring and performing statistical reasoning, attack patterns and post-attack discrepancies in the UAS behavior can be detected. R2U2 uses runtime observer pairs for linear and metric temporal logics for property monitoring and Bayesian networks for diagnosis of security threats. We discuss the design and implementation that now enables R2U2 to handle security threats and present simulation results of several attack scenarios on the NASA DragonEye UAS.

Formal Methods↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗
NASA NTRS2017

Machine Learning Approaches to Increasing Value of Spaceflight Omics Databases

The number of spaceflight bioscience mission opportunities is too small to allow all relevant biological and environmental parameters to be experimentally identified. Simulated spaceflight experiments in ground-based facilities (GBFs), such as clinostats, are each suitable only for particular investigations -- a rotating-wall vessel may be 'simulated microgravity' for cell differentiation (hours), but not DNA repair (seconds) -- and introduce confounding stimuli, such as motor vibration and fluid shear effects. This uncertainty over which biological mechanisms respond to a given form of simulated space radiation or gravity, as well as its side effects, limits our ability to baseline spaceflight data and validate mission science. Machine learning techniques autonomously identify relevant and interdependent factors in a data set given the set of desired metrics to be evaluated: to automatically identify related studies, compare data from related studies, or determine linkages between types of data in the same study. System-of-systems (SoS) machine learning models have the ability to deal with both sparse and heterogeneous data, such as that provided by the small and diverse number of space biosciences flight missions; however, they require appropriate user-defined metrics for any given data set. Although machine learning in bioinformatics is rapidly expanding, the need to combine spaceflight/GBF mission parameters with omics data is unique. This work characterizes the basic requirements for implementing the SoS approach through the System Map (SM) technique, a composite of a dynamic Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture model, in real-world repositories such as the GeneLab Data System and Life Sciences Data Archive. The three primary steps are metadata management for experimental description using open-source ontologies, defining similarity and consistency metrics, and generating testing and validation data sets. Such approaches to spaceflight and GBF omics data may soon enable unique insight into which measured phenomena correlate to biological mechanisms that are truly affected by spaceflight conditions; which are most likely to be confounded by other variables; and which are insufficiently characterized, significantly increasing existing and future science return from ISS and spaceflight missions.

Gentry, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2017

R2U2: Tool Overview

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is an extensible framework for runtime System HealthManagement (SHM) of cyber-physical systems. R2U2 can be run in hardware (e.g., FPGAs), or software; can monitorhardware, software, or a combination of the two; and can analyze a range of different types of system requirementsduring runtime. An R2U2 requirement is specified utilizing a hierarchical combination of building blocks: temporal formula runtime observers (in LTL or MTL), Bayesian networks, sensor filters, and Boolean testers. Importantly, the framework is extensible; it is designed to enable definitions of new building blocks in combination with the core structure. Originally deployed on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), R2U2 is designed to run on a wide range of embedded platforms, from autonomous systems like rovers, satellites, and robots, to human-assistive ground systems and cockpits. R2U2 is named after the requirements it satisfies; while the exact requirements vary by platform and mission, the ability to formally reason about realizability, responsiveness, and unobtrusiveness is necessary for flight certifiability, safety-critical system assurance, and achievement of technology readiness levels for target systems. Realizability ensures that R2U2 is suficiently expressive to encapsulate meaningful runtime requirements while maintaining adaptability to run on different platforms, transition between different mission stages, and update quickly between missions. Responsiveness entails continuously monitoring the system under test, real-time reasoning, reporting intermediate status, and as-early-as-possible requirements evaluations. Unobtrusiveness ensures compliance with the crucial properties of the target architecture: functionality, certifiability, timing, tolerances, cost, or other constraints.

Rozier, Kristin Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Software and System Health Management with R2U2

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is a hardware-supported tool and framework for the real-time system and software health management of cyber-physical systems. R2U2 continuously monitors properties about safety, performance, and security of the vehicle and can perform diagnostic reasoning. Efficient observers for past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, reasoners for Bayesian Networks, and model-based prognostics algorithms are major components of R2U2. Their combination makes it possible to design powerful models for system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, prognostics, and security monitoring. The R2U2 monitoring engine is designed for minimal runtime overhead and is available as Simulink block or as a software component for integration into the flight software stack, and enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any instrumentation of the flight software. In this presentation, we give an overview of R2U2 architecture and reasoning algorithms, present its features, and give a life demo of the tool.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runtime Analysis with R2U2: A Tool Exhibition Report

We present R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit), a hardware- supported tool and framework for the continuous monitoring of safetycritical and embedded cyber-physical systems.With the widespread advent of autonomous systems such as Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), satellites, rovers, and cars, real-time, on-board decision making requires unobtrusive monitoring of properties for safety, performance, security, and system health. R2U2 models combine past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, “mission time” Linear Temporal Logic, probabilistic reasoning with Bayesian Networks, and modelbased prognostics. The R2U2 monitoring engine can be instantiated as a hardware solution, running on an FPGA, or as a software component. The FPGA realization enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any overhead or instrumentation of the flight software. In this tool exhibition report, we present R2U2 and demonstrate applications on system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, and security monitoring for a UAS. Our tool demonstration uses a hardware-based processor-in-the-loop “iron-bird” configuration.

Johann Martin Schumann↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence Thermostat to Detect Faults

Residential air conditioners and heat pumps often experience faults due to inadequate maintenance, which can severely reduce efficiency or even cause system failure. Common issues include dirty or clogged air filters and refrigerant leaks. These problems degrade performance and increase energy use and operating costs. This study presents a smart thermostat with embedded artificial intelligence to detect such faults and alert homeowners when maintenance is needed. The thermostat uses low-cost measurements—including return-air temperature, relative humidity, supply-air temperature, outdoor-air temperature, and condenser subcooling—to identify abnormal operations. Because different faults produce distinct response patterns, tailored algorithms are developed to recognize characteristic fault signatures. The investigation is built on a detailed co-simulation platform that couples EnergyPlus with the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). EnergyPlus represents the building’s dynamic environment, while HPDM is a high-fidelity, hardware-based model that can simulate fault-free performance as well as a wide range of faults, including gradual degradation such as minor refrigerant leakage. This platform provides a virtual training and testing environment that helps distinguish fault-induced behavior from normal operation and supports development of robust diagnostic algorithms. Using this framework, a Dynamic Bayesian Network was developed to identify two common faults—gradual refrigerant charge loss and indoor airflow blockage—and the AI-embedded thermostat was verified through annual building simulations.

Shen, Bo [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000336600393)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in lithium-ion battery electrodes using bayesian convolutional neural networks

The complex nature of manufacturing processes stipulates electrodes to possess high variability with increased heterogeneity during production. X-ray computed tomography imaging has proved to be critical in visualizing the complicated stochastic particle distribution of as-manufactured electrodes in lithium-ion batteries. However, accurate prediction of their electrochemical performance necessitates precise evaluation of kinetic and transport properties from real electrodes. Image segmentation that characterizes voxels to particle/pore phase is often meticulous and fraught with subjectivity owing to a myriad of unconstrained choices and filter algorithms. Here we utilize a Bayesian convolutional neural network to tackle segmentation subjectivity and quantify its pertinent uncertainties. Otsu inter-variance and Blind/Referenceless Imaging Spatial Quality Evaluator are used to assess the relative image quality of grayscale tomograms, thus evaluating the uncertainty in the derived microstructural attributes. We analyze how image uncertainty is correlated with the uncertainties and magnitude of kinetic and transport properties of an electrode, further identifying pathways of uncertainty propagation within microstructural attributes. The coupled effect of spatial heterogeneity and microstructural anisotropy on the uncertainty quantification of transport parameters is also understood. This work demonstrates a novel methodology to extract microstructural descriptors from real electrode images through quantification of associated uncertainties and discerning the relative strength of their propagation, thus facilitating feedback to manufacturing processes from accurate image based electrochemical simulations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

B-PINNs: Bayesian Physics-informal Neural Networks for Forward and Inverse PDE Problems with Noisy Data

We propose a Bayesian physics-informed neural network (B-PINN) to solve both forward and inverse nonlinear problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and noisy data. In this Bayesian framework, the Bayesian neural network (BNN) combined with a PINN for PDEs serves as the prior while the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or the variational inference (VI) could serve as an estimator of the posterior. B-PINNs make use of both physical laws and scattered noisy measurements to provide predictions and quantify the aleatoric uncertainty arising from the noisy data in the Bayesian framework. Compared with PINNs, in addition to uncertainty quantification, B-PINNs obtain more accurate predictions in scenarios with large noise due to their capability of avoiding overfitting. We conduct a systematic comparison between the two different approaches for the B-PINNs posterior estimation (i.e., HMC or VI), along with dropout used for quantifying uncertainty in deep neural networks. Our experiments show that HMC is more suitable than VI with mean field Gaussian approximation for the B-PINNs posterior estimation, while dropout employed in PINNs can hardly provide accurate predictions with reasonable uncertainty. Finally, we replace the BNN in the prior with a truncated Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion combined with HMC or a deep normalizing flow (DNF) model as posterior estimators. The KL is as accurate as BNN and much faster but this framework cannot be easily extended to high-dimensional problems unlike the BNN based framework.

Non linear PDEs, Noisy data, Bysian physics inform↗
NASA NTRS1990

Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

Wan, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗