Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Bayesian method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Stability boundary and optimal operating parameter identification in milling using Bayesian learning

Here, this paper describes a novel Bayesian learning approach for stability boundary and optimal parameter identification in milling without the knowledge of the underlying tool dynamics or material cutting force coefficients. The paper is divided into two parts. First, a Bayesian learning method for stability lobe identification using test results is described. Each axial depth and spindle speed combination is characterized by a probability of stability which is updated using Bayes’ rule when a test result (stable or unstable) is made available. A novel likelihood function is defined which incorporates knowledge of the stability behavior. Numerical results show convergence to the analytical stability lobe diagram. Second, an adaptive experimental strategy to identify optimal operating parameters that maximize material removal rate is described. Numerical evaluation shows convergence to the optimal operating point with error less than 15 % within ten tests on average. The approach is validated using experimental results. Results show that the proposed method is an efficient and robust learning method to identify the stability lobe diagram and optimal operating parameters with a limited number of tests/data points.

Bayesian machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 1: Bayesian Parameter Estimation Considering Uncertainty or Error from both Experiments and Theory**

A common goal is extraction of physico-chemical parameter values such as pre-exponentials and activation energies from experiment. Ever increasing knowledge from experiments and computations is enabling semi-quantitative prior predictions of such values. When prior knowledge of physically realistic ranges is available, a method named Bayesian parameter estimation (BPE) enables more physically realistic parameter estimation relative to unsophisticated fitting by seeking the most probable value when considering together the uncertainties from prior knowledge, experimental data, and approximations in the model. An impediment to widespread use of BPE is a lack of understanding, training, and user-friendly software. Along with this invited publication, a general software package for BPE is being released that is user-friendly and that does not require understanding of the math behind the methodology. Overall, two previously unpublished catalysis science examples are provided along with considerations and guidelines for successful application of BPE. Following this work, BPE can become more widespread to enable extraction of physically meaningful parameter values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hadronic structure in high-energy collisions

Here, Parton distribution functions (PDFs) describe the structure of hadrons as composed of quarks and gluons. They are needed to make predictions for short-distance processes in high-energy collisions and are determined by fitting to cross-section data. Definitions of the PDFs and their relations to high-energy cross sections are reviewed. The focus is on the PDFs in protons, but PDFs in nuclei are also discussed. The standard statistical treatment needed to fit the PDFs to data using the Hessian method is reviewed in some detail. Tests are discussed that critically examine whether the needed assumptions are indeed valid. Also presented are some ideas of what one can do in case tests indicate that the assumptions fail.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Icy Kuiper-Belt Around the Young Solar-Type Star HD 181327

HD 181327 is a young Main Sequence F5/F6 V star belonging to the Beta Pictoris moving group (age approx 12 Myr). It harbors an optically thin belt of circumstellar material at approx90 AU, presumed to result from collisions in a populat.ion of unseen planetesimals. Aims. We aim to study the dust properties in the belt in great details, and to constrain the gas-to-dust ratio. Methods. We obtained far-IR photometric observations of HD 181327 with the PACS instrument onboard the Herschel Space Observatory, complemented by new 3.2 nun observations carried with the ATCA array. The geometry of the belt is constrained with newly reduced HST /NICMOS scattered light images that break the degeneracy between the disk geometry and the dust properties. We then use the radiative transfer code GRaTer to compute a large grid of dust models, and we apply a Bayesian inference method to identify the grain models that best reproduce the SED. We attempt to detect the oxygen and ionized carbon fine-structure lines with Herschel/PACS spectroscopy, providing observables to our photochemical code ProDiMo. Results. The HST observations confirm that the dust is confined in a narrow belt. The continuum is detected with Herschel/PACS completing nicely the SED in the far-infrared. The disk is marginally resolved with both PACS and ATCA. A medium integration of the gas spectral lines only provides upper limits on the [OI] and [CII] line fluxes. We show that the HD 181327 dust disk consists of micron-sized grains of porous amorphous silicates and carbonaceous material surrounded by an import.ant layer of ice for a total dust mass of approx 0.05 stellar Mass. We discuss evidences that the grains consists of fluffy aggregates. The upper limits on the gas atomic lines do not provide unambiguous constraints: only if the PAH abundance is high, the gas mass must be lower than approx 17 Stellar Mass Conclusions. Despite the weak constraints on the gas disk, the age of HD 181327 and the properties of the dust disk suggest that it has passed the stage of gaseous planets formation. The dust reveals a population of icy planetesimals, similar to the primitive Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt, that may be a source for the future delivery of water and volatiles onto forming terrestrial planets.

Lebreton, J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimization for Reactor Design Optimization

This study present a test case in which the Bayesian Optimization method is applied to a simulation-based reactor core design optimization problem. The test case aims to showcase the potential of an automated design optimization algorithm for reactor designs by streamlining the reactor core design workflow, given the high computational cost of simulations. The contributions of this work are threefold. First, the existing HTGR model is converted into a simulation-based design optimization test case by developing a pipeline that enables modification of key design parameters and evaluates design performance based on simulation outputs. Second, Bayesian Optimization is implemented and adapted to demonstrate the feasibility of automatic design optimization for nuclear reactor core. Proposed approach leverages Gaussian Process models to characterize the relationship between design variables and performance metrics, while incorporating novel acquisition functions that balance exploration of the design space with exploitation of promising configurations. This implementation lays the foundation for the future developments of reactor design optimization algorithms.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Functional Data Analysis for Extracting the Intrinsic Dimensionality of Spectra: Application to Chemical Homogeneity in the Open Cluster M67

High-resolution spectroscopic surveys of the Milky Way have entered the Big Data regime and have opened avenues for solving outstanding questions in Galactic archeology. However, exploiting their full potential is limited by complex systematics, whose characterization has not received much attention in modern spectroscopic analyses. In this work, we present a novel method to disentangle the component of spectral data space intrinsic to the stars from that due to systematics. Using functional principal component analysis on a sample of 18,933 giant spectra from APOGEE, we find that the intrinsic structure above the level of observational uncertainties requires ≈10 functional principal components (FPCs). Our FPCs can reduce the dimensionality of spectra, remove systematics, and impute masked wavelengths, thereby enabling accurate studies of stellar populations. To demonstrate the applicability of our FPCs, we use them to infer stellar parameters and abundances of 28 giants in the open cluster M67. We employ Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based Bayesian inference method that learns likelihood functions using neural density estimators, to incorporate non-Gaussian effects in spectral likelihoods. By hierarchically combining the inferred abundances, we limit the spread of the following elements in M67: Fe ≲ 0.02 dex; C ≲ 0.03 dex; O, Mg, Si, Ni ≲ 0.04 dex; Ca ≲ 0.05 dex; N, Al ≲ 0.07 dex (at 68% confidence). Our constraints suggest a lack of self-pollution by core-collapse supernovae in M67, which has promising implications for the future of chemical tagging to understand the star formation history and dynamical evolution of the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulating ab initio computations of infinite nucleonic matter

We construct efficient emulators for the computation of the infinite nuclear matter equation of state. These emulators are based on the subspace-projected coupled-cluster method for which we here develop a new algorithm called small-batch voting to eliminate spurious states that might appear when emulating quantum many-body methods based on a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. The efficiency and accuracy of these emulators facilitate a rigorous statistical analysis within which we explore nuclear matter predictions for > 10 6 different parametrizations of a chiral interaction model with explicit Δ -isobars at next-to-next-to leading order. Constrained by nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts and bound-state observables of light nuclei up to He 4 , we use history matching to identify nonimplausible domains for the low-energy coupling constants of the chiral interaction. Within these domains we perform a Bayesian analysis using sampling and importance resampling with different likelihood calibrations and study correlations between interaction parameters, calibration observables in light nuclei, and nuclear matter saturation properties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Postural Recovery Following Short and Long Duration Spaceflights

INTRODUCTION: Post-flight postural ataxia reflects adaptive changes to vestibulo-spinal reflexes and control strategies adopted for movement in weightlessness. Quantitative measures obtained during computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) from US and Russian programs provide insight into the effect of spaceflight duration in terms of both the initial decrements and recovery of postural stability. METHODS: CDP was obtained on 117 crewmembers following Shuttle flights lasting 4-17 days, and on 64 crewmembers following long-duration missions lasting 48-380 days. Although the number and timing of sessions varied, the goal was to characterize postural recovery pooling similar measures from different research and flight medicine programs. This report focuses on eyes closed, head erect conditions with either a fixed or sway-referenced base of support. A smaller subset of subjects repeated the sway-referenced condition while making pitch head movements (+/- 20deg at 0.33Hz). Equilibrium scores were derived from peak-to-peak anterior-posterior sway. Fall probability was modeled using Bayesian statistical methods to estimate parameters of a logit function. RESULTS: The standard Romberg condition was the least sensitive. Longer duration flights led to larger decrements in stability with sway-reference support during the first 1-2 days, although the timecourse of recovery was similar across flight duration with head erect. Head movements led to increased incidence of falls during the first week, with a significantly longer recovery following long duration flights. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic assessment of postural instability, and differences in the timecourse of postural recovery between short and long flight durations, are more pronounced during unstable support conditions requiring active head movements.

Wood, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greedy emulators for nuclear two-body scattering

Applications of reduced basis method emulators are increasing in low-energy nuclear physics because they enable fast and accurate sampling of high-fidelity calculations, enabling robust uncertainty quantification. Here, in this paper, we develop, implement, and test two model-driven emulators based on the (Petrov-)Galerkin projection using the prototypical test case of two-body scattering with the Minnesota potential and a more realistic local chiral potential. The high-fidelity scattering equations are solved with the matrix Numerov method, a reformulation of the popular Numerov recurrence relation for solving special second-order differential equations as a linear system of coupled equations. A novel error estimator based on reduced-space residuals is applied to an active learning approach (a greedy algorithm) to choosing training samples (“snapshots”) for the emulator and contrasted with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach. Both approaches allow for computationally efficient offline-online decompositions, but the greedy approach requires many fewer snapshot calculations. These developments set the groundwork for emulating scattering observables based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and optical models, where computational speed-ups are necessary for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our emulators and error estimators are widely applicable to linear systems.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
NASA NTRS2015

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗