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Results for “Bayesian analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

A spectrometer for high-precision ion temperature and velocity measurements in low-temperature plasmas

We have developed a low-cost spectrometer with simple optical design that achieves unprecedented precision measurements of ion temperature (±0.01 eV) and velocity (±20 m/s). A Fabry-Pérot étalon provides the simultaneous high resolving power and high throughput needed for the light levels available in singly ionized helium and argon plasmas. Reducing the systematic uncertainty in the absolute wavelength calibration needed for the specified velocity precision motivates a Bayesian analysis method called Nested Sampling to address the nontrivial uncertainty in the diffraction order. An initial emission measurement of a singly charged stationary argon plasma yields a temperature of 0.339 ± 0.007 eV and a velocity of -3 ± 4 m/s with a systematic uncertainty of 20 m/s.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of improved laser preheat with a cryogenically cooled magnetized liner inertial fusion platform

We report on progress implementing and testing cryogenically cooled platforms for Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Two cryogenically cooled experimental platforms were developed: an integrated platform fielded on the Z pulsed power generator that combines magnetization, laser preheat, and pulsed-power-driven fuel compression and a laser-only platform in a separate chamber that enables measurements of the laser preheat energy using shadowgraphy measurements. The laser-only experiments suggest that ~89% ± 10% of the incident energy is coupled to the fuel in cooled targets across the energy range tested, significantly higher than previous warm experiments that achieved at most 67% coupling and in line with simulation predictions. The laser preheat configuration was applied to a cryogenically cooled integrated experiment that used a novel cryostat configuration that cooled the MagLIF liner from both ends. Furthermore, the integrated experiment, z3576, coupled 2.32 ± 0.25 kJ preheat energy to the fuel, the highest to-date, demonstrated excellent temperature control and nominal current delivery, and produced one of the highest pressure stagnations as determined by a Bayesian analysis of the data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2013

MODELING THE NON-RECYCLED FERMI GAMMA-RAY PULSAR POPULATION

We use Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope detections and upper limits on non-recycled pulsars obtained from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) to constrain how the gamma-ray luminosity L{sub γ} depends on the period P and the period derivative P-dot . We use a Bayesian analysis to calculate a best-fit luminosity law, or dependence of L{sub γ} on P and P-dot , including different methods for modeling the beaming factor. An outer gap (OG) magnetosphere geometry provides the best-fit model, which is L{sub γ}∝P{sup -a} P-dot {sup b} where a = 1.36 ± 0.03 and b = 0.44 ± 0.02, similar to but not identical to the commonly assumed L{sub γ}∝√( E-dot )∝P{sup -1.5} P-dot {sup 0.5}. Given upper limits on gamma-ray fluxes of currently known radio pulsars and using the OG model, we find that about 92% of the radio-detected pulsars have gamma-ray beams that intersect our line of sight. By modeling the misalignment of radio and gamma-ray beams of these pulsars, we find an average gamma-ray beaming solid angle of about 3.7π for the OG model, assuming a uniform beam. Using LAT-measured diffuse fluxes, we place a 2σ upper limit on the average braking index and a 2σ lower limit on the average surface magnetic field strength of the pulsar population of 3.8 and 3.2 × 10{sup 10} G, respectively. We then predict the number of non-recycled pulsars detectable by the LAT based on our population model. Using the 2 yr sensitivity, we find that the LAT is capable of detecting emission from about 380 non-recycled pulsars, including 150 currently identified radio pulsars. Using the expected 5 yr sensitivity, about 620 non-recycled pulsars are detectable, including about 220 currently identified radio pulsars. We note that these predictions significantly depend on our model assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE GEMINI/NICI PLANET-FINDING CAMPAIGN: THE FREQUENCY OF PLANETS AROUND YOUNG MOVING GROUP STARS

We report results of a direct imaging survey for giant planets around 80 members of the β Pic, TW Hya, Tucana-Horologium, AB Dor, and Hercules-Lyra moving groups, observed as part of the Gemini/NICI Planet-Finding Campaign. For this sample, we obtained median contrasts of ΔH = 13.9 mag at 1'' in combined CH{sub 4} narrowband ADI+SDI mode and median contrasts of ΔH = 15.1 mag at 2'' in H-band ADI mode. We found numerous (>70) candidate companions in our survey images. Some of these candidates were rejected as common-proper motion companions using archival data; we reobserved with Near-Infrared Coronagraphic Imager (NICI) all other candidates that lay within 400 AU of the star and were not in dense stellar fields. The vast majority of candidate companions were confirmed as background objects from archival observations and/or dedicated NICI Campaign followup. Four co-moving companions of brown dwarf or stellar mass were discovered in this moving group sample: PZ Tel B (36 ± 6 M{sub Jup}, 16.4 ± 1.0 AU), CD–35 2722B (31 ± 8 M{sub Jup}, 67 ± 4 AU), HD 12894B (0.46 ± 0.08 M{sub ☉}, 15.7 ± 1.0 AU), and BD+07 1919C (0.20 ± 0.03 M{sub ☉}, 12.5 ± 1.4 AU). From a Bayesian analysis of the achieved H band ADI and ASDI contrasts, using power-law models of planet distributions and hot-start evolutionary models, we restrict the frequency of 1-20 M{sub Jup} companions at semi-major axes from 10-150 AU to <18% at a 95.4% confidence level using DUSTY models and to <6% at a 95.4% using COND models. Our results strongly constrain the frequency of planets within semi-major axes of 50 AU as well. We restrict the frequency of 1-20 M{sub Jup} companions at semi-major axes from 10-50 AU to <21% at a 95.4% confidence level using DUSTY models and to <7% at a 95.4% using COND models. This survey is the deepest search to date for giant planets around young moving group stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Brown dwarf photospheres are patchy: A Hubble space telescope near-infrared spectroscopic survey finds frequent low-level variability

Condensate clouds strongly impact the spectra of brown dwarfs and exoplanets. Recent discoveries of variable L/T transition dwarfs argued for patchy clouds in at least some ultracool atmospheres. This study aims to measure the frequency and level of spectral variability in brown dwarfs and to search for correlations with spectral type. We used Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 to obtain spectroscopic time series for 22 brown dwarfs of spectral types ranging from L5 to T6 at 1.1-1.7 μm for ≈40 minutes per object. Using Bayesian analysis, we find six brown dwarfs with confident (p > 95%) variability in the relative flux in at least one wavelength region at sub-percent precision, and five brown dwarfs with tentative (p > 68%) variability. We derive a minimum variability fraction f{sub min}=27{sub −7}{sup +11}% over all covered spectral types. The fraction of variables is equal within errors for mid-L, late-L, and mid-T spectral types; for early-T dwarfs we do not find any confident variable but the sample is too small to derive meaningful limits. For some objects, the variability occurs primarily in the flux peak in the J or H band, others are variable throughout the spectrum or only in specific absorption regions. Four sources may have broadband peak-to-peak amplitudes exceeding 1%. Our measurements are not sensitive to very long periods, inclinations near pole-on and rotationally symmetric heterogeneity. The detection statistics are consistent with most brown dwarf photospheres being patchy. While multiple-percent near-infrared variability may be rare and confined to the L/T transition, low-level heterogeneities are a frequent characteristic of brown dwarf atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The diskmass survey. VIII. On the relationship between disk stability and star formation

We study the relationship between the stability level of late-type galaxy disks and their star-formation activity using integral-field gaseous and stellar kinematic data. Specifically, we compare the two-component (gas+stars) stability parameter from Romeo and Wiegert (Q {sub RW}), incorporating stellar kinematic data for the first time, and the star-formation rate estimated from 21 cm continuum emission. We determine the stability level of each disk probabilistically using a Bayesian analysis of our data and a simple dynamical model. Our method incorporates the shape of the stellar velocity ellipsoid (SVE) and yields robust SVE measurements for over 90% of our sample. Averaging over this subsample, we find a meridional shape of σ{sub z}/σ{sub R}=0.51{sub −0.25}{sup +0.36} for the SVE and, at 1.5 disk scale lengths, a stability parameter of Q {sub RW} = 2.0 ± 0.9. We also find that the disk-averaged star-formation-rate surface density ( Σ-dot {sub e,∗}) is correlated with the disk-averaged gas and stellar mass surface densities (Σ {sub e,} {sub g} and Σ {sub e,} {sub *}) and anti-correlated with Q {sub RW}. We show that an anti-correlation between Σ-dot {sub e,∗} and Q {sub RW} can be predicted using empirical scaling relations, such that this outcome is consistent with well-established statistical properties of star-forming galaxies. Interestingly, Σ-dot {sub e,∗} is not correlated with the gas-only or star-only Toomre parameters, demonstrating the merit of calculating a multi-component stability parameter when comparing to star-formation activity. Finally, our results are consistent with the Ostriker et al. model of self-regulated star-formation, which predicts Σ-dot {sub e,∗}/Σ{sub e,g}∝Σ{sub e,∗}{sup 1/2}. Based on this and other theoretical expectations, we discuss the possibility of a physical link between disk stability level and star-formation rate in light of our empirical results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

MOA-2011-BLG-262Lb: A sub-Earth-mass moon orbiting a gas giant primary or a high velocity planetary system in the galactic Bulge

We present the first microlensing candidate for a free-floating exoplanet-exomoon system, MOA-2011-BLG-262, with a primary lens mass of M {sub host} ∼ 4 Jupiter masses hosting a sub-Earth mass moon. The argument for an exomoon hinges on the system being relatively close to the Sun. The data constrain the product M{sub L} π{sub rel} where M{sub L} is the lens system mass and π{sub rel} is the lens-source relative parallax. If the lens system is nearby (large π{sub rel}), then M{sub L} is small (a few Jupiter masses) and the companion is a sub-Earth-mass exomoon. The best-fit solution has a large lens-source relative proper motion, μ{sub rel} = 19.6 ± 1.6 mas yr{sup –1}, which would rule out a distant lens system unless the source star has an unusually high proper motion. However, data from the OGLE collaboration nearly rule out a high source proper motion, so the exoplanet+exomoon model is the favored interpretation for the best fit model. However, there is an alternate solution that has a lower proper motion and fits the data almost as well. This solution is compatible with a distant (so stellar) host. A Bayesian analysis does not favor the exoplanet+exomoon interpretation, so Occam's razor favors a lens system in the bulge with host and companion masses of M{sub host}=0.12{sub −0.06}{sup +0.19} M{sub ⊙} and m{sub comp}=18{sub −10}{sup +28} M{sub ⊕}, at a projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=0.84{sub −0.14}{sup +0.25} AU. The existence of this degeneracy is an unlucky accident, so current microlensing experiments are in principle sensitive to exomoons. In some circumstances, it will be possible to definitively establish the mass of such lens systems through the microlensing parallax effect. Future experiments will be sensitive to less extreme exomoons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

New method to measure proper motions of microlensed sources: Application to candidate free-floating-planet event MOA-2011-BLG-262

We develop a new method to measure source proper motions in microlensing events, which can partially overcome problems due to blending. It takes advantage of the fact that the source position is known precisely from the microlensing event itself. We apply this method to the event MOA-2011-BLG-262, which has a short timescale t {sub E} = 3.8 day, a companion mass ratio q = 4.7 × 10{sup –3}, and a very high or high lens-source relative proper motion μ{sub rel} = 20 mas yr{sup –1} or 12 mas yr{sup –1} (for two possible models). These three characteristics imply that the lens could be a brown dwarf or a massive planet with a roughly Earth-mass 'moon'. The probability of such an interpretation would be greatly increased if it could be shown that the high lens-source relative proper motion was primarily due to the lens rather than the source. Based on the long-term monitoring data of the Galactic bulge from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, we measure the source proper motion that is small, μ{sub s}=(−2.3,−0.9)±(2.8,2.6) mas yr{sup −1} in a (north, east) Galactic coordinate frame. These values are then important input into a Bayesian analysis of the event presented in a companion paper by Bennett et al.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Upper limits to the magnetic field in central stars of planetary nebulae

More than about 20 central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPNs) have been observed spectropolarimetrically, yet no clear, unambiguous signal of the presence of a magnetic field in these objects has been found. We perform a statistical (Bayesian) analysis of all the available spectropolarimetric observations of CSPN to constrain the magnetic fields in these objects. Assuming that the stellar field is dipolar and that the dipole axis of the objects is oriented randomly (isotropically), we find that the dipole magnetic field strength is smaller than 400 G with 95% probability using all available observations. The analysis introduced allows integration of future observations to further constrain the parameters of the distribution, and it is general, so that it can be easily applied to other classes of magnetic objects. We propose several ways to improve the upper limits found here.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

BANYAN. III. Radial velocity, rotation, and X-ray emission of low-mass star candidates in nearby young kinematic groups

Based on high-resolution spectra obtained with PHOENIX at Gemini-South, CRIRES at VLT-UT1, and ESPaDOnS at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, we present new measurements of the radial and projected rotational velocities of 219 low-mass stars. The target likely membership was initially established using the Bayesian analysis tool recently presented in Malo et al., taking into account only the position, proper motion, and photometry of the stars to assess their membership probability. In the present study, we include radial velocity as an additional input to our analysis, and in doing so we confirm the high membership probability for 130 candidates: 27 in β Pictoris, 22 in Tucana-Horologium, 25 in Columba, 7 in Carina, 18 in Argus and 18 in AB Doradus, and 13 with an ambiguous membership. Our analysis also confirms the membership of 57 stars proposed in the literature. A subsample of 16 candidates was observed at 3 or more epochs, allowing us to discover 6 new spectroscopic binaries. The fraction of binaries in our sample is 25%, consistent with values in the literature. Of the stars in our sample, 20% show projected rotational velocities (vsin i) higher than 30 km s{sup –1} and therefore are considered as fast rotators. A parallax and other youth indicators are still needed to fully confirm the 130 highly probable candidates identified here as new bona fide members. Finally, based on the X-ray emission of bona fide and highly probable group members, we show that for low-mass stars in the 12-120 Myr age range, the X-ray luminosity is an excellent indicator of youth and better than the more traditionally used R {sub X} parameter, the ratio of X-ray to bolometric luminosity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Supermassive black holes with high accretion rates in active galactic nuclei. II. The most luminous standard candles in the universe

This is the second in a series of papers reporting on a large reverberation mapping (RM) campaign to measure black hole (BH) mass in high accretion rate active galactic nuclei (AGNs). The goal is to identify super-Eddington accreting massive black holes (SEAMBHs) and to use their unique properties to construct a new method for measuring cosmological distances. Based on theoretical models, the saturated bolometric luminosity of such sources is proportional to the BH mass, which can be used to obtain their distance. Here we report on five new RM measurements and show that in four of the cases, we can measure the BH mass and three of these sources are SEAMBHs. Together with the three sources from our earlier work, we now have six new sources of this type. We use a novel method based on a minimal radiation efficiency to identify nine additional SEAMBHs from earlier RM-based mass measurements. We use a Bayesian analysis to determine the parameters of the new distance expression and the method uncertainties from the observed properties of the objects in the sample. The ratio of the newly measured distances to the standard cosmological ones has a mean scatter of 0.14 dex, indicating that SEAMBHs can be use as cosmological distance probes. With their high luminosity, long period of activity, and large numbers at high redshifts, SEAMBHs have a potential to extend the cosmic distance ladder beyond the range now explored by Type Ia supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

BANYAN. V. A SYSTEMATIC ALL-SKY SURVEY FOR NEW VERY LATE-TYPE LOW-MASS STARS AND BROWN DWARFS IN NEARBY YOUNG MOVING GROUPS

We present the BANYAN All-Sky Survey (BASS) catalog, consisting of 228 new late-type (M4-L6) candidate members of nearby young moving groups (YMGs) with an expected false-positive rate of ∼13%. This sample includes 79 new candidate young brown dwarfs and 22 planetary-mass objects. These candidates were identified through the first systematic all-sky survey for late-type low-mass stars and brown dwarfs in YMGs. We cross-matched the Two Micron All Sky Survey and AllWISE catalogs outside of the galactic plane to build a sample of 98,970 potential ≥M5 dwarfs in the solar neighborhood and calculated their proper motions with typical precisions of 5-15 mas yr{sup –1}. We selected highly probable candidate members of several YMGs from this sample using the Bayesian Analysis for Nearby Young AssociatioNs II tool (BANYAN II). We used the most probable statistical distances inferred from BANYAN II to estimate the spectral type and mass of these candidate YMG members. We used this unique sample to show tentative signs of mass segregation in the AB Doradus moving group and the Tucana-Horologium and Columba associations. The BASS sample has already been successful in identifying several new young brown dwarfs in earlier publications, and will be of great interest in studying the initial mass function of YMGs and for the search of exoplanets by direct imaging; the input sample of potential close-by ≥M5 dwarfs will be useful to study the kinematics of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs and search for new proper motion pairs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determining neutron star properties by fitting oblate-star waveform models to X-ray burst oscillations

We describe sophisticated new Bayesian analysis methods that make it possible to estimate quickly the masses and radii of rapidly rotating, oblate neutron stars by fitting oblate-star waveform models to energy-resolved observations of the waveforms of X-ray burst oscillations produced by such stars. We find that a 25% variation of the temperature of the hot spot in the north-south direction does not significantly bias estimates of the mass M and equatorial radius R{sub eq} derived by fitting a model that assumes a uniform-temperature spot. Our results show that fits of oblate-star waveform models to waveform data can simultaneously determine M and R{sub eq} with 1σ uncertainties ≲7% if (1) the star's rotation rate is ≳ 600 Hz; (2) the spot center and observer's sightline are both within 30{sup ∘} of the star's rotational equator; and (3) ∼10{sup 7} counts are collected during burst oscillations that have a fractional rms amplitude ≳10%. A fractional amplitude of ∼10% is realistic, and the accepted NICER and proposed LOFT and AXTAR space missions could collect 10{sup 7} counts from a single star by combining data from many X-ray bursts from the star. Uncertainties ≲7% are small enough to improve substantially our understanding of cold, ultradense matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

STAR CLUSTER PROPERTIES IN TWO LEGUS GALAXIES COMPUTED WITH STOCHASTIC STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS

We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

DETECTING UNSPECIFIED STRUCTURE IN LOW-COUNT IMAGES

Unexpected structure in images of astronomical sources often presents itself upon visual inspection of the image, but such apparent structure may either correspond to true features in the source or be due to noise in the data. This paper presents a method for testing whether inferred structure in an image with Poisson noise represents a significant departure from a baseline (null) model of the image. To infer image structure, we conduct a Bayesian analysis of a full model that uses a multiscale component to allow flexible departures from the posited null model. As a test statistic, we use a tail probability of the posterior distribution under the full model. This choice of test statistic allows us to estimate a computationally efficient upper bound on a p-value that enables us to draw strong conclusions even when there are limited computational resources that can be devoted to simulations under the null model. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated images. Applying our method to an X-ray image of the quasar 0730+257, we find significant evidence against the null model of a single point source and uniform background, lending support to the claim of an X-ray jet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Bayesian reconstruction of the velocity distribution of weakly interacting massive particles from direct dark matter detection data

In this paper, we extended our earlier work on the reconstruction of the (time-averaged) one-dimensional velocity distribution of Galactic Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) and introduce the Bayesian fitting procedure to the theoretically predicted velocity distribution functions. In this reconstruction process, the (rough) velocity distribution reconstructed by using raw data from direct Dark Matter detection experiments directly, i.e. measured recoil energies, with one or more different target materials, has been used as ''reconstructed-input'' information. By assuming a fitting velocity distribution function and scanning the parameter space based on the Bayesian analysis, the astronomical characteristic parameters, e.g. the Solar and Earth's Galactic velocities, will be pinned down as the output results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Encyclopædia curvatonis

We investigate whether the predictions of single-field models of inflation are robust under the introduction of additional scalar degrees of freedom, and whether these extra fields change the potentials for which the data show the strongest preference. We study the situation where an extra light scalar field contributes both to the total curvature perturbations and to the reheating kinematic properties. Ten reheating scenarios are identified, and all necessary formulas allowing a systematic computation of the predictions for this class of models are derived. They are implemented in the public library ASPIC, which contains more than 75 single-field potentials. This paves the way for a forthcoming full Bayesian analysis of the problem. A few representative examples are displayed and discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Do joint CMB and HST data support a scale invariant spectrum?

We combine current measurements of the local expansion rate, H {sub 0}, and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) estimates of helium abundance with the latest cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from the Planck Collaboration to discuss the observational viability of the scale invariant Harrison-Zeldovch-Peebles (HZP) spectrum. We also analyze some of its extensions, namely, HZP + Y {sub P} and HZP + N {sub eff}, where Y {sub P} is the primordial helium mass fraction and N {sub eff} is the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom. We perform a Bayesian analysis and show that the latter model is favored with respect to the standard cosmology for values of N {sub eff} lying in the interval 3.70 ± 0.13 (1σ), which is currently allowed by some independent analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗