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DOE OSTI2024

Properties of Cosmic Deuterons Measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

Precision measurements by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) on the International Space Station of the deuteron (𝐷) flux are presented. The measurements are based on 21 × 10 6 𝐷 nuclei in the rigidity range from 1.9 to 21 GV collected from May 2011 to April 2021. We observe that over the entire rigidity range the 𝐷 flux exhibits nearly identical time variations with the 𝑝, 3 He, and 4 He fluxes. Above 4.5 GV, the 𝐷/ 4 He flux ratio is time independent and its rigidity dependence is well described by a single power law ∝𝑅 Δ with Δ 𝐷/ 4 He = −0.108 ± 0.005. This is in contrast with the 3 He/ 4 He flux ratio for which we find Δ 3 He/ 4 He = −0.289 ± 0.003. Above ∼13 GV we find a nearly identical rigidity dependence of the 𝐷 and 𝑝 fluxes with a 𝐷/𝑝 flux ratio of 0.027 ± 0.001. These unexpected observations indicate that cosmic deuterons have a sizable primarylike component. With a method independent of cosmic ray propagation, we obtain the primary component of the 𝐷 flux equal to 9.4 ± 0.5% of the 4 He flux and the secondary component of the 𝐷 flux equal to 58 ± 5% of the 3 He flux.

cosmic ray acceleration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pricing Strategy of Electric Vehicle Aggregators Based on Locational Marginal Price to Minimize Photovoltaic (PV) Curtailment

The global climate crisis demands urgent action to mitigate global warming. Using renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, for electricity generation is crucial. This shift from centralized to distributed power systems, however, brings challenges, including voltage fluctuations and renewable energy curtailment. The rapid growth of the electric vehicle (EV) industry adds complexity, increasing overall electricity demand and straining the power supply during peak charging times. This paper proposes a scheduling strategy for EV aggregators to reduce renewable energy curtailment and stabilize grid operation by strategically scheduling EV charging. Using Multi -Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim), a traffic simulation tool, EV driving data in Denver, Colorado, USA, were modeled. The EV aggregator adjusts charging fees based on locational marginal prices, encouraging EVs to charge at different stations according to pricing. Simulations on an IEEE 33-bus system with distributed energy resources and EV charging stations validate the proposed algorithm, demonstrating its effectiveness in reducing curtailment by 12.55% and stabilizing grid operation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

DeepShake: Shaking Intensity Prediction Using Deep Spatiotemporal RNNs for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract We propose a deep spatiotemporal recurrent neural network, DeepShake, to project future shaking intensity directly from current ground-motion observations. DeepShake is a network-based forecasting model, able to predict future shaking intensity at all stations within a network given previously measured ground shaking. The model is not given any a priori knowledge of station locations; instead, it learns wave propagation amplitudes and delays solely from training data. We developed DeepShake with the 35,679 earthquakes from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Tasked with alerting for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) IV+ shaking on 3568 validation earthquakes at least 5 s in advance, DeepShake achieves an equal error rate of 11.4%. For the Mw 7.1 earthquake that hit Ridgecrest on 5 July 2019, DeepShake was able to provide targeted alerts to all stations inside the network 5 s prior to the arrival of MMI IV+ waveforms. DeepShake demonstrates that deep spatiotemporal neural networks can effectively provide one-step earthquake early warning with reasonable accuracy and latency.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracking Seismic Velocity Perturbations at Ridgecrest Using Ballistic Correlation Functions

Abstract We present results based on data of a dense nodal array composed of 147 stations, deployed in 2022 near the epicenter of the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake to investigate characteristics of the seismic wavefields. Through array analyses, we identified two primary components. First, we observed far-field P waves dominating the 0.5–1.2 Hz frequency range, which are likely primarily generated by wind-driven oceanic swell activity. Second, we detected near-field body waves resulting from anthropogenic activities in the frequency range 2–8 Hz. We examined noise correlation functions derived from data of the dense deployment and regional stations to explore fault-zone seismic velocity changes using ballistic arrivals, with a focus on velocity perturbation shortly before and after the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. Our findings exhibit distinct behavior compared to results obtained through standard coda-wave interferometry. Particularly, we observed a decrease in P-wave travel time on certain station pairs prior to the 2019 earthquake sequence. Supported by detailed investigation of the local seismic wavefields, we interpret the decreasing P-wave travel time as likely caused by a velocity increase away from the fault, possibly related to fluid migration. However, additional information is necessary to verify this hypothesis.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Proton beam power limits for stationary water-cooled tungsten target with different cladding materials

The proton beam power limit for a solid-tungsten spallation target is largely determined by beam induced thermomechanical structural loads and decay heat power deposition, while its lifetime is limited by radiation damage and fatigue life of the target materials. In this paper, we studied the power limits of a stationary water-cooled solid tungsten target concept. Tantalum clad tungsten was considered as a reference case. Being a low activation material, zircaloy 2 cladding option was studied and its decay heat driven power limit was compared with the reference case. Zirconium alloys have proven operations records in spallation target and nuclear fission environments, supported by materials data obtained from post irradiation examinations. Recent study also demonstrated feasibility of diffusion bonding zirconium to tungsten using vanadium foil inter layer. Particle transport simulations code FLUKA was used to calculate energy deposition and decay heat power deposition in the target, based on the beam parameters technically feasible at the Second Target Station of the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The energy deposition data were used for flow, thermal, and structural analyses to determine the beam intensity limit on the target concept studied. The decay heat deposition data were used to calculate the transient temperature evolution in the tungsten volumes in a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenario to determine its beam power limit. For a 1.3 GeV proton beam, the power limit on a stationary target was 400 kW for a tantalum clad target model and 800 kW for a zircaloy 2 clad target model.

Lee, Yong Joong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Refueling Infrastructure Deployment in Low-Income and Non-Urban Communities

The U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization identifies the need to invest in infrastructure supporting low- and zero-emission vehicles, especially in low-income and overburdened communities, to eliminate nearly all greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector by 2050. The alternative fuel vehicle refueling property tax credit (26 U.S. Code § 30C) includes eligibility criteria intended to encourage investment in underserved communities based on the economic characteristics or urban character of the census tract in which the fueling infrastructure is installed. Eligible census tracts are those that qualify for the New Markets Tax Credit or that are not located within urban areas as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. This study quantifies how many fueling-related amenities are currently located in census tracts that qualify and do not qualify for the 30C tax credit based on IRS Notice 2024-20. For existing electric vehicle charging stations, 51% of Level 2 and 60% of Direct Current Fast Charging public stations are located in eligible census tracts. 73% of natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fueling stations are in qualifying census tracts and 75% of biodiesel and renewable fuel stations are in qualifying census tracts. This compares with 73% of existing gas stations in eligible census tracts. For deploying the refueling infrastructure to satisfy future demand, this study shows that truck stops (94%), commercial truck stops (92%), and Federal Highway alternative fuel corridors (89%) are predominantly located in eligible locations. Additionally, significant percentages of the population (62%), light-duty vehicle registrations (64%), and medium- and heavy-duty vehicle registrations (68%) fall within eligible areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Grid Impact Analysis of Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

This paper presents a grid impact analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. In this work, heavy-duty EVs have battery capacities high enough to provide a range of 250-500 miles on a single charge, such as long-haul trucks. Heavy-duty EVs will require extremely fast charging rates to reduce charging time and will induce very high charging loads (at the multiple-megawatt scale) if several vehicles charge at the same time. Therefore, analysis is needed to understand the impact of charging station loads on the electric power grid and set the baseline for developing mitigation plans and necessary system upgrades. We develop a systematic procedure to analyze the potential impact of the placement of charging stations on the grid. Charging load is modeled using a DC fast-charging station model. A voltage load sensitivity matrix approach is leveraged to investigate the challenges of placing charging stations on the feeder. Given the charging load profiles and suggested charging station locations, time-series simulations are performed on various connection points on the feeder to understand the impact. The analysis is performed on both the IEEE 34-bus system and a realistic feeder from California. Initial mitigation solutions are developed based on insights from this analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Event Detection of Power Systems Based on Unequal-Interval Reduction of PMU Data and Local Outlier Factor

With the deployment of phasor measurement units (PMU) and wide area measurement system (WAMS), it is feasible to have an insight into the events occurred in power systems based on measured data. Thus, a novel data-driven algorithm based on local outlier factor (LOF) is proposed in this work to detect and locate events in power systems using reduced PMU data. First, the unequal-interval reduction method is presented to reduce the scale of PMU data in sub-stations and reconstruct it in master station of WAMS, which can relieve the burden of communication systems. Then, principle component analysis (PCA)-based similarity search method is proposed to measure the differences of operation state between any two buses. Next, LOF is presented to detect the abnormal events in power systems, and employed to determine the region of the event source. Finally, six cases from the Western electricity coordinating council (WECC) 179-bus power system, a case from the South China power system (SCPS), and a case from the Guangdong power system (GDPS) are utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Overall, the results show that proposed algorithm is effective and can be applied to event detection, event location, and online monitoring, which can enhance the situation awareness ability of power system operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Effectiveness of FLEX Strategies Using a CDF-Based Importance Measure Under Accident Conditions

One of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident is strengthening the station blackout (SBO) mitigation capabilities by enhancing defense in depth for all existing and new NPPs. One of the possible remedies is diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). The objective of this study is to address the benefits of FLEX in various accident scenarios in terms of both risk and cost. FLEX was originally devised against SBO accidents. In this research, we investigate the fundamental plant responses against accidents considering two fundamentally different cases: accidents that lead to high pressure on the primary side and accidents that lead to low pressure on the primary side. Several uncertainties are associated with the characteristics of the FLEX portable equipment. Specifically, the time for FLEX deployment may depend on several factors such as type of accident, point of injection, availability of safety systems, battery backup timings, and human actions. This study utilizes a dynamic risk assessment framework to analyze accident scenarios and suggests a novel importance measure, which is a cumulative distribution function– based importance metric that characterizes the influence of input distribution on complete output distribution. The importance of the existing and newly developed FLEX strategy based on risk significance is illustrated with examples. The suggested measure provides clear insight into how FLEX affects risk of the whole system and additional risk margins thanks to new safety systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phosphorus budgets of intensively managed row crops at a long–term agroecosystem research site in the upper US Midwest

Phosphorus (P) budgets for cropping systems provide insights for keeping soil P at optimal levels for crops while avoiding excess inputs. We quantified 12 years of P inputs (fertilizer and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (harvest and leaching losses) for replicated maize (Zea mays L.)—soybean (Glycine max L.)—wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop rotations under conventional, no-till, reduced input, and biologically based (organic without compost or manure) management systems at the Kellogg Biological Station LTAR site in southwest Michigan. Conventional, no-till, and reduced input systems were fertilized between 13 and 50 kg P ha –1 depending on year. Soil test phosphorus (STP) was measured at 0- to 25-cm depth every autumn. Leached P was measured as dissolved P in the soil solution sampled beneath the rooting depth and combined with modeled percolation. Fertilization and harvest were the predominant P fluxes in the fertilized systems, whereas only harvest dominated P flux in the unfertilized organic system. Leaching losses were minor terms in the budgets, but leachate concentrations were nevertheless close to the range of concern for downstream eutrophication. Over the 12-year study period, the organic system exhibited a negative P balance (–82.0 kg P ha –1 ), coinciding with suboptimal STP levels, suggesting a need for P supplementation. In contrast, the fertilized systems showed positive P balances (mean: 70.1 kg P ha –1 ) with STP levels well above agronomic optima. Results underscore the importance of tailored P management strategies to sustain crop productivity while mitigating environmental impacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenging problems of quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of meteorological time series data

Abstract Representativeness and quality of collected meteorological data impact accuracy and precision of climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical analyses and predictions. We developed a comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework, consisting of three major phases: Phase I—Preliminary data exploration, i.e., processing of raw datasets, with the challenging problems of time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase II—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme data; and Phase III—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The paper includes two use cases based on the time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado), and the Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) meteorological station. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Combined analysis of HPK 3.1 LGADs using a proton beam, beta source, and probe station towards establishing high volume quality control

The upgrades of the CMS and ATLAS experiments for the high luminosity phase of the Large Hadron Collider will employ precision timing detectors based on Low Gain Avalanche Detectors (LGADs). We present a suite of results combining measurements from the Fermilab Test Beam Facility, a beta source telescope, and a probe station, allowing full characterization of the HPK type 3.1 production of LGAD prototypes developed for these detectors. We demonstrate that the LGAD response to high energy test beam particles is accurately reproduced with a beta source. Finally, we further establish that probe station measurements of the gain implant accurately predict the particle response and operating parameters of each sensor, and conclude that the uniformity of the gain implant in this production is sufficient to produce full-sized sensors for the ATLAS and CMS timing detectors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design, Control, and Protection of a 13.2 kV, 1 MVA Solid State Transformer for Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Station

In this article, a medium-voltage (MV) ac-dc solid state transformer (SST) for electric vehicle (EV) extreme fast charging (XFC) station is proposed. The SST adopts a cascaded H-bridge (CHB)-based structure where the active front end (AFE) power stages are connected in input-series followed by dual active bridge (DAB) converters connected in an output-parallel configuration providing galvanic isolation through a high-frequency transformer (HFT). The SST is rated for 1 MVA and connects directly to a three-phase 13.2 kV MV ac grid through ac switchgear and outputs 750-V dc. At the dc bus, several dc/dc converters are connected, each of which can charge an EV based on its battery capacity. A novel decentralized control architecture of the SST is adopted in this work which simplifies the MV dc link voltage and module-level power balancing. In addition, the local and central protection designs of the SST are presented which identify and respond to the internal fault of the system. Finally, the experimental validations of the SST hardware prototype are presented up to the rated voltage. Furthermore, this article details the design and implementation of the MV SST addressing the challenges of an isolated MV class power converter for connecting directly to the MV ac grid with unique controller architecture, distributed protection framework, and SST constructional features.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing 3D Mechanical Earth Models for Calibration and Validation in a Large-Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Project in North Dakota

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. Three-dimensional (3D) mechanical earth models (MEMs) are pivotal in assessing geological sites for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage and mitigating potential risks associated with storage and injection. The Energy & Environmental Research Center is exploring innovative carbon storage monitoring techniques at a CO 2 storage site near Beulah, North Dakota. These methods aim to provide lower-impact, faster feedback for commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The research includes monitoring CO 2 injection using various approaches: 1) an automated, integrated modular monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance; 4) time-lapse seismic techniques; and 5) advanced wellbore monitoring.

02 PETROLEUM↗