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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Wavelet flow for extragalactic foreground simulations

Extragalactic foregrounds in cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations are both a source of cosmological and astrophysical information and a nuisance to the CMB. Effective field-level modeling that captures their non-Gaussian statistical distributions is increasingly important for optimal information extraction, particularly given the low-noise observations from current and upcoming experiments. Here, we explore the use of Wavelet Flow (WF) models to tackle the novel task of modeling the field-level probability distributions of multi-component CMB secondaries and foregrounds. Specifically, we jointly train correlated CMB lensing convergence (κ) and cosmic infrared background (CIB) maps with a WF model and obtain a network that statistically recovers the input to high accuracy — the trained network generates samples of κ and CIB fields whose average power spectra are within a few percent of the inputs across all scales, and whose Minkowski functionals are similarly accurate compared to the inputs. Leveraging the multiscale architecture of these models, we fine-tune both the model parameters and the priors at each scale independently, optimizing performance across different resolutions. These results demonstrate that WF models can accurately simulate correlated components of CMB secondaries, supporting improved analysis of cosmological data. Our code and trained models can be found on this GitHub repo.

cosmological simulations↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Approach to Bayesian Optimization for Design Feasibility Check on Discontinuous Black-Box Functions

The paper presents a novel approach to applying Bayesian Optimization (BO) in predicting an unknown constraint boundary, also representing the discontinuity of an unknown function, for a feasibility check on the design space, thereby representing a classification tool to discern between a feasible and infeasible region. Bayesian optimization is a low-cost black-box global optimization tool in the Sequential Design Methods where one learns and updates knowledge from prior evaluated designs, and proceeds to the selection of new designs for future evaluation. However, BO is best suited to problems with the assumption of a continuous objective function and does not guarantee true convergence when having a discontinuous design space. This is because of the insufficient knowledge of the BO about the nature of the discontinuity of the unknown true function. In this paper, we have proposed to predict the location of the discontinuity using a BO algorithm on an artificially projected continuous design space from the original discontinuous design space. The proposed approach has been implemented in a thin tube design with the risk of creep-fatigue failure under constant loading of temperature and pressure. The stated risk depends on the location of the designs in terms of safe and unsafe regions, where the discontinuities lie at the transition between those regions; therefore, the discontinuity has also been treated as an unknown creep-fatigue failure constraint. The proposed BO algorithm has been trained to maximize sampling toward the unknown transition region, to act as a high accuracy classifier between safe and unsafe designs with minimal training cost. The converged solution has been validated for different design parameters with classification error rate and function evaluations at an average of <1% and ~150, respectively. Finally, the performance of our proposed approach in terms of training cost and classification accuracy of thin tube design is shown to be better than the existing machine learning (ML) algorithms such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Boosting.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

EQC: Ensembled Quantum Computing for Variational Quantum Algorithms

Variational quantum algorithms (VQA), which are comprised of a classical optimizer and a parameterized quantum circuit, emerges as one of the most promising approaches of harvesting quantum power in the noisy-intermediate-scale-quantum (NISQ) era. However, the deployment of VQAs on today's NISQ devices often faces considerable system noise and prohibitively slow training speeds. On the other hand, the expensive supporting sources and infrastructure make quantum computers extremely keen on high utilization. In this paper, we propose a novel way of thinking about a quantum backend: rather than relying on one physical device which tends to introduce platform-specific noise and bias, a quantum ensemble, which distributes quantum tasks across parallel devices, can serve as a virtualized quantum computer for offering reduced noise levels through an adaptive mixture and also provide significantly improved training speeds through parallelization. With this idea, we build a distributive VQA optimization framework called DVQA, serving as the first effort in adopting parallel quantum devices for cooperative VQA training. To further constraint noise and speed-up convergence, we design a model for individual NISQ devices concerning their properties and running conditions, and propose a weighting mechanism for regularizing the returned gradients. Extensive evaluations on 10 IBM-Q quantum devices using the VQE example show that the distributive VQA training framework can substantially boost the training speed by 10.5x on average (up to 86x and at least 5.2x) with improved training accuracy.

Stein, Samuel A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extending Power of Nature from Binary Problems to Real-Valued Graph Learning in Real World

Nature performs complex computations constantly at clearly lower cost and higher performance than digital computers. It is crucial to understand how to harness the unique computational power of nature in Machine Learning (ML). In the past decade, besides the development of Neural Networks (NNs), the community has also relentlessly explored nature-powered ML paradigms. Although most of them are still predominantly theoretical, a new practical paradigm enabled by the recent advent of CMOS-compatible room-temperature nature-based computers has emerged. By harnessing the nature's power of entropy increase, this paradigm can solve binary learning problems delivering immense speedup and energy savings compared with NNs, while maintaining comparable accuracy. Regrettably, its values to the real world are highly constrained by its binary nature. A clear pathway to its extension to real-valued problems remains elusive. This paper aims to unleash this pathway by proposing a novel end-to-end Nature-Powered Graph Learning (NP-GL) framework. Specifically, through a three-dimensional co-design, NP-GL can leverage the nature's power of entropy increase to efficiently solve real-valued graph learning problems. Experimental results across 4 real-world applications with 6 datasets demonstrate that NP-GL delivers, on average, 6970X speedup and 10^5x energy consumption reduction with comparable or even higher accuracy than Graph Neural Networks (GNNs).

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An electrochemical mesoscale tool for modeling the corrosion of structural alloys by molten salt

Understanding the impact of microstructure on corrosion rates can aid the development of corrosion-resistant alloys for molten salt reactors. Here in this work, we develop an electrochemical phase-field model for capturing the microstructure-dependent corrosion of structural alloys by molten salts. As a demonstration problem, we apply this model to capture the selective depletion of Cr from Ni-Cr grain boundaries during corrosion in molten FLiBe salt. We perform sensitivity analysis and model verification on 1D simulations to confirm that the model predicts diffusion-limited kinetics. The model is validated using 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations against experimental data for Ni-5Cr and Ni-20Cr corrosion in molten FLiBe. The 1D simulations predict the corrosion behavior with reasonable accuracy when using an effective diffusion coefficient that accurately represents the grain boundary diffusion. 2D simulations that represent the grain structure underpredict the corrosion. 3D simulations that represent the grain structure predict the corrosion with reasonable accuracy. The corrosion rate predicted by the 3D simulations is proportional to the average grain size at the alloy/salt interface.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking blobs in the turbulent edge plasma of a tokamak fusion device

Abstract The analysis of turbulence in plasmas is fundamental in fusion research. Despite extensive progress in theoretical modeling in the past 15 years, we still lack a complete and consistent understanding of turbulence in magnetic confinement devices, such as tokamaks. Experimental studies are challenging due to the diverse processes that drive the high-speed dynamics of turbulent phenomena. This work presents a novel application of motion tracking to identify and track turbulent filaments in fusion plasmas, called blobs, in a high-frequency video obtained from Gas Puff Imaging diagnostics. We compare four baseline methods (RAFT, Mask R-CNN, GMA, and Flow Walk) trained on synthetic data and then test on synthetic and real-world data obtained from plasmas in the Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV). The blob regime identified from an analysis of blob trajectories agrees with state-of-the-art conditional averaging methods for each of the baseline methods employed, giving confidence in the accuracy of these techniques. By making a dataset and benchmark publicly available, we aim to lower the entry barrier to tokamak plasma research, thereby greatly broadening the community of scientists and engineers who might apply their talents to this endeavor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fugitive methane detection using open-path stand-off chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy

We report an open-path chirped laser dispersion spectrometer capable of detecting the atmospheric methane concentration above the background using both specular and diffusive reflective surfaces via two distinct operation modes in a stand-off detection configuration. The system is integrated with simultaneous ranging functionality, which enables average concentration measurements for varying optical pathlengths. The system was first tested for accuracy and characterized to achieve sensitivity of 2.9 p p m - m / H z 1 / 2 and pathlength precision of 0.2 m / H z 1 / 2 with a controlled release of methane outside the laboratory. The instrument was subsequently field-deployed in the proximity of a natural gas compressor station for fugitive methane detection. The instrument successfully detected methane plumes and narrowed down the location of the plume through multi-path measurement. The field measurements were verified by a co-located reference mobile methane sensor.

Chen, Yifeng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convergence and Quantum Advantage of Trotterized MERA for Strongly-Correlated Systems

Strongly-correlated quantum many-body systems are difficult to study and simulate classically. We recently proposed a variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) based on the multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz (MERA) with tensors constrained to certain Trotter circuits. Here, we determine the scaling of computation costs for various critical spin chains which substantiates a polynomial quantum advantage in comparison to classical MERA simulations based on exact energy gradients or variational Monte Carlo. Algorithmic phase diagrams suggest an even greater separation for higher-dimensional systems. Hence, the Trotterized MERA VQE is a promising route for the efficient investigation of strongly-correlated quantum many-body systems on quantum computers. Furthermore, we show how the convergence can be substantially improved by building up the MERA layer by layer in the initialization stage and by scanning through the phase diagram during optimization. For the Trotter circuits being composed of single-qubit and two-qubit rotations, it is experimentally advantageous to have small rotation angles. We find that the average angle amplitude can be reduced considerably with negligible effect on the energy accuracy. Benchmark simulations suggest that the structure of the Trotter circuits for the TMERA tensors is not decisive; in particular, brick-wall circuits and parallel random-pair circuits yield very similar energy accuracies.

Miao, Qiang [Duke Quantum Center, Duke University,↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ambient Synchrophasor Measurement Based System Inertia Estimation

This paper develops an algorithm to estimate the system inertia value based on ambient synchrophasor measurement. Informative features are extracted from ambient synchrophasor measurements for machine-learning-based inertia estimation. Besides ambient synchrophasor measurements of FNET/GridEye, other available data relevant to inertia (such as weather and system load data) are also used to improve the inertia estimation accuracy. Then a machine learning algorithm to estimate system inertia is developed. A test dataset including ambient synchrophasor data from FNET/GridEye measurements and the WECC system inertia data from NERC is used to evaluate the performance of the developed inertia estimation method. The average and maximum estimation errors of the developed inertia estimation method is lower than 5% and 10%, respectively. This accuracy is higher than reported accuracy values in existing literature.

CUI, YI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Lattice Kinetic Schemes for Fluid Dynamics with Lattice-Equivariant Neural Networks

A new class of equivariant neural networks is presented, hereby dubbed lattice-equivariant neural networks (LENNs), designed to satisfy local symmetries of a lattice structure. The approach develops within a recently introduced framework aimed at learning neural network-based surrogate models’ lattice Boltzmann collision operators. Whenever neural networks are employed to model physical systems, respecting symmetries and equivariance properties has been shown to be key for accuracy, numerical stability, and performance. Here, hinging on ideas from group representation theory, trainable layers are defined whose algebraic structure is equivariant with respect to the symmetries of the lattice cell. In this work, the presented method naturally allows for efficient implementations, in terms of both memory usage and computational costs, supporting scalable training/testing for lattices in two spatial dimensions and higher (in which the size of symmetry group grows). The approach is validated and tested considering 2D and 3D flowing dynamics, both in laminar and turbulent regimes. It is compared with group-averaged-based symmetric networks and with plain, nonsymmetric, networks, showing how the presented approach unlocks the (a posteriori) accuracy and training stability of the former models and the train/inference speed of the latter networks. (LENNs are about one order of magnitude faster than group-averaged networks in 3D.) The work in this paper opens toward practical use of machine learning-augmented lattice Boltzmann CFD in real-world simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network in Utah, US, using both ray tracing-derived and empirical-derived celerity-range and backazimuth models

SUMMARY More realistic models for infrasound signal propagation across a region can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of spatial and temporal source localization estimates. Motivated by incomplete infrasound event bulletins in the Western US, the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network of stations located between 84–458 km from the Utah Test and Training Range, Utah, USA, is assessed using a series of near-surface explosive events with complementary ground truth (GT) information. Signal arrival times and backazimuth estimates are determined with an automatic F-statistic based signal detector and manually refined by an analyst. This study represents the first application of three distinct celerity-range and backazimuth models to an extensive suite of realistic signal detections for event location purposes. A singular celerity and backazimuth deviation model was previously constructed using ray tracing analysis based on an extensive archive of historical atmospheric specifications and is applied within this study to test location capabilities. Similarly, a set of multivariate, season and location specific models for celerity and backazimuth are compared to an empirical model that depends on the observations across the infrasound network and the GT events, which accounts for atmospheric propagation variations from source to receiver. Discrepancies between observed and predicted signal celerities result in locations with poor accuracy. Application of the empirical model improves both spatial localization precision and accuracy; all but one location estimates retain the true GT location within the 90 per cent confidence bounds. Average mislocation of the events is 15.49 km and average 90 per cent error ellipse areas are 4141 km2. The empirical model additionally reduces origin time residuals; origin time residuals from the other location models are in excess of 160 s while residuals produced with the empirical model are within 30 s of the true origin time. We demonstrate that event location accuracy is driven by a combination of signal propagation model and the azimuthal gap of detecting stations. A direct relationship between mislocation, error ellipse area and increased station azimuthal gaps indicate that for sparse networks, detection backazimuths may drive location biases over traveltime estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly transferable atomistic machine-learning potentials from curated and compact datasets across the periodic table

Machine learning atomistic potentials trained using density functional theory (DFT) datasets allow for the modeling of complex material properties with near-DFT accuracy while imposing a fraction of its computational cost. The curation of the DFT datasets can be extensive in size and time-consuming to train and refine. In this study, we focus on addressing these barriers by developing minimalistic and flexible datasets for many elements in the periodic table regardless of their mass, electronic configuration, and ground state lattice. These DFT datasets have on average, ~4000 different structures and 27 atoms per structure, which we found sufficient to maintain the predictive accuracy of DFT properties and notably with high transferability. We envision these highly curated training sets as starting points for the community to expand, modify, or use with other machine learning atomistic potential models, whatever may suit individual needs, further accelerating the utilization of machine learning as a tool for material design and discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Pu emission with solution-loaded laser ablation modified sources (SLLAMS) for thermal ionization mass spectrometry

This study presents a new approach to filament modification by laser ablation for analysis of femtograms of plutonium (Pu) by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS). This method simplifies the often rigorous and labor-intensive sample loading necessary for low-level analyses by TIMS with solution-loaded laser ablation modified sources (SLLAMS). By applying a para-film coating to the surface of the filament and then ablating through the film to reveal metal beneath, a point source is created. A solution containing ppt-levels of Pu can then be applied over the ablated region, dried slowly into the crater, and then carburized. All analyses were made by multiple ion counting system of a Nu Instruments TIMS. Furthermore, we report errors of 10% 2σ for 240 Pu/ 239 Pu of CRM-137 samples totaling 5 – 7 femtograms (fg; 1E-15 g) with an average sample utilization efficiency of 1.3%. Results from SLLAMS demonstrate an improvement in precision, accuracy and ease of use over resin bead loads.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗