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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Determining divergence times with a protein clock: update and reevaluation

A recent study of the divergence times of the major groups of organisms as gauged by amino acid sequence comparison has been expanded and the data have been reanalyzed with a distance measure that corrects for both constraints on amino acid interchange and variation in substitution rate at different sites. Beyond that, the availability of complete genome sequences for several eubacteria and an archaebacterium has had a great impact on the interpretation of certain aspects of the data. Thus, the majority of the archaebacterial sequences are not consistent with currently accepted views of the Tree of Life which cluster the archaebacteria with eukaryotes. Instead, they are either outliers or mixed in with eubacterial orthologs. The simplest resolution of the problem is to postulate that many of these sequences were carried into eukaryotes by early eubacterial endosymbionts about 2 billion years ago, only very shortly after or even coincident with the divergence of eukaryotes and archaebacteria. The strong resemblances of these same enzymes among the major eubacterial groups suggest that the cyanobacteria and Gram-positive and Gram-negative eubacteria also diverged at about this same time, whereas the much greater differences between archaebacterial and eubacterial sequences indicate these two groups may have diverged between 3 and 4 billion years ago.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1994

Proterozoic and early Cambrian protists: evidence for accelerating evolutionary tempo

In rocks of late Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic age (ca. 1700-1000 million years ago), probable eukaryotic microfossils are widespread and well preserved, but assemblage and global diversities are low and turnover is slow. Near the Mesoproterozoic-Neoproterozoic boundary (1000 million years ago), red, green, and chromophytic algae diversified; molecular phylogenies suggest that this was part of a broader radiation of "higher" eukaryotic phyla. Observed diversity levels for protistan microfossils increased significantly at this time, as did turnover rates. Coincident with the Cambrian radiation of marine invertebrates, protistan microfossils again doubled in diversity and rates of turnover increased by an order of magnitude. Evidently, the Cambrian diversification of animals strongly influenced evolutionary rates, within clades already present in marine communities, implying an important role for ecology in fueling a Cambrian explosion that extends across kingdoms.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

EARLY IMPACT MELTING AND SPACE EXPOSURE HISTORY OF THE PAT91501 LCHONDRITE

Collisions probably occurred frequently in the early history of the asteroid belt. Their effects, which should be recorded in meteorites, must have included heating and melting along with shock alteration of mineral textures. Some non-chondritic meteorite types e.g., eucrites and IIE and IAB irons - do indeed give evidence of extensive impact heating more than 3.4 Gyr ago. The ordinary chondrites, in contrast, show little evidence of early impact heating. The Ar-Ar and Rb-Sr ages of ordinary chondrites that experienced intense shock are for the most part relatively young, many less than 1.5 Gyr. The numerous L-chondrites with Ar- Ar ages clustering near 0.5 Gy are a well-known example. One of them, the 105-kg Chico Lchondrite, shows the effects of unusually intense heating. It is approximately 60% impact melt and likely formed as a dyke beneath a large crater when the L-chondrite parent body underwent a very large impact approximately 0.5 Gyr ago. In rare instances, older shock dates are indicated for ordinary chondrites. Dixon et al show early impact resetting of Ar-Ar ages of a few LL-chondrites including MIL 99301 at 4.23 0.03 Gyr, but in none of these stones did shock lead to extensive melting. As of 2003, searches for chondritic melts attributable to early shock had turned up only the Shaw L-chondrite, which has an Ar-Ar age of approximately 4.42 Gyr. PAT91501 is an 8.55-kg L-chondrite containing vesicles and metal-troilite nodules. It is a unique, near-total impact melt, unshocked, depleted in siderophile and chalcophile elements, and contains only approximately 10% relic chondritic material. The authors conclude that PAT91501 crystallized rapidly and from a much more homogeneous melt than did Shaw. They suggest that PAT resembles Chico and likely formed as an impact melt vein within an impact crater. To define the history of PAT, we have determined its Ar-39-Ar-40 age and measured several radioactive and stable nuclides produced during its space exposure to cosmic rays.

Bogard, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ar-Ar and I-Xe Ages and the Thermal History of IAB Meteorites

Studies of several samples of the large Caddo County IAB iron meteorite reveal andesitic material, enriched in Si, Na, Al and Ca, which is essentially unique among meteorites. This material is believed to have formed from a chondritic source by partial melting and to have further segregated by grain coarsening. Such an origin implies extended metamorphism of the IAB parent body. New Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for silicate from three different Caddo samples are consistent with a common age of 4.50-4.51 Gyr ago. Less well defined Ar-Ar degassing ages for inclusions from two other IABs, EET8333 and Udei Station, are approx.4.32 Gyr, whereas the age for Campo del Cielo varies considerably over approx.3.23-4.56 Gyr. New I-129-Xe-129 ages for Caddo County and EET8333 are 4561.9+/-0.1 Myr and 4560- 4563 Myr, respectively, relative to an age of 4566 Myr for Shallowater. Considering all reported Ar-Ar ages for IABs and related winonaites, the range is approx.4.32-4.53 Gyr, but several IABs give similar Ar ages of 4.50-4.52 Gyr. We interpret these older ages to represent cooling after the time of last significant metamorphism on the parent body, and the younger ages to represent later Ar-40 diffusion loss. These older Ar-Ar ages are similar to Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isochron ages reported in the literature for Caddo County. Considering the possibility that IAB parent body formation was followed by impact disruption, reassembly, and metamorphism (e.g., Benedix et al. 2000), the time of the post-assembly metamorphism may have been as late as approx.4.53 Gyr ago. However, precise I-Xe ages reported for some IABs define a range of ages of approx.4560 to approx.4576 Myr. The older I-Xe ages exceed the oldest precise radiometric ages of meteorites, appear unrealistic, and s,uggest a bias in the calibration of all I-Xe ages. But even with such a bias, the I-Xe ages of IABs cannot easily be reconciled with the much younger Ar-Ar and Sm-Nd ages and with cooling rates deduced from Ni concentration profiles in IAB metal (Herpfer et al., 1994). An explanation for the difference in radiometric ages of IABs may reside in combinations of the following: a) I-Xe ages have very high closure temperatures and were not reset during metamorphism; b) a bias exists in the K-40 decay constants; c) the reported Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr ages for Caddo are in error by amounts equal to or exceeding their reported 2-sigma uncertainties; and 4) the IAB parent body may have experienced a mild metamorphism approx.30 Myr after the initial heating that produced differentiation of Caddo silicate and mixing of silicate and metal.

Bogard, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ar-Ar and I-Xe Ages and the Thermal History of IAB Meteorites

Studies of several samples of the large Caddo County IAB iron meteorite reveal andesitic material, enriched in Si, Nay Al and Ca, which is essentially unique among meteorites. This material is believed to have formed from a chondritic source by partial melting and to have further segregated by grain coarsening. Such an origin implies extended metamorphism of the IAB parent body. New Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for silicate from three different Caddo samples are consistent with a common age of 4.50- 4.51 Gyr ago. Less well defined Ar-Ar degassing ages for inclusions from two other IABs, EET8333 and Udei Station, are approx.4.32 Gyr, whereas the age for Campo del Cielo varies considerably over approx.3.23-4.56 Gyr. New I-129-Xe-129 ages for Caddo County and EET8333 are 4561.9 +/-0.1 Myr and 4560-4563 Myr, respectively, relative to an age of 4566 Myr for Shallowater. Considering all reported Ar-Ar ages for IABs and related winonaites, the range is approx.4.32-4.53 Gyr, but several IABs give similar Ar ages of 4.50-4.52 Gyr. We interpret these older ages to represent cooling after the time of last significant metamorphism on the parent body, and the younger ages to represent later Ar-40 diffusion loss. These older Ar-Ar ages are similar to Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isochron ages reported in the literature for Caddo County. Considering the possibility that IAB parent body formation was followed by impact disruption, reassembly, and metamorphism (e.g., Benedix et al. 2000), the time of the post-assembly metamorphism may have been as late as approx.4.53 Gyr ago. However, precise I-Xe ages reported for some IABs define a range of ages of approx.4560 to approx.4576 My. The older I-Xe ages exceed the oldest precise radiometric ages of meteorites, appear unrealistic, and suggest a bias in the calibration of all I-Xe ages. But even with such a bias, the I-Xe ages of IABs cannot easily be reconciled with the much younger Ar-Ar and Sm-Nd ages and with cooling rates deduced from Ni concentration profiles in IAB metal (Herpfer et al., 1994). An explanation for the difference in radiometric ages of IABs may reside in combinations of the following: a) I-Xe ages have very high closure temperatures and were not reset during metamorphism; b) a bias exists in the K-40 decay constants; c) the reported Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr ages for Caddo are in error by amounts equal to or exceeding their reported 2-sigma uncertainties; and 4) the IAB parent body may have experienced a mild metamorphism approx.30 Myr after the initial heating that produced differentiation of Caddo silicate and mixing of silicate and metal. 129 129

Bogard, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

3-D Highway in the Sky

If it were 50 years ago, NASA's contribution to rock and roll could have been more than just the all-astronaut rock band, Max Q, composed of six NASA astronauts, all of whom have flown aboard the Space Shuttle. If it were 50 years ago, a new NASA spinoff technology, Synthetic Vision, would likely have been able to prevent the fateful, small plane crash that killed rock and roll legends Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and The Big Bopper on that stormy night in 1959. Synthetic Vision is a new cockpit display system that helps pilots fly through bad weather, and it has incredible life-saving potential. In 1997, the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security created NASA s Aviation Safety and Security Program (AvSSP) with the aim of sounding the depths of NASA s cutting-edge aviation advances and history of successes. The AvSSP decided to use NASA technology to cut the rate of fatal aviation accidents that occur because of lowered visibility and spatial disorientation, common problems that arise in poor weather conditions, in the dark, or with inexperienced pilots.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2006

Bombardment History of the Moon: What We Think We Know and What We Don't Know

The absolute impace history of the moon and inner solar system can in principle be derived from the statistics of radiometric ages of shock-heated planetary samples (lunar or meteoritic), from the formation ages of specific impact craters on the moon or Earth; and from agedating samples representing geologic surface units on the moon (or Mars) for which crater densities have been determined. This impact history, however, is still poorly defined. The heavily cratered surface of the moon is a testimony to the importance of impact events in the evolution of terrestrial planets and satellites. Lunar impacts range in scale from an early intense flux of large objects that defined the surface geology of the moon, down to recent, smaller impacts that continually generate and rework the lunar regolith. Densities of larger craters on lunar surface units of dated age define a projectile flux over time that serves as the basis for estimating surface ages on other solid bodies, particularly Mars. The lunar cratering history may address aspects of Earth s evolution, such as the possible role of early intense impacts on the atmosphere and early life and possible periodicity in large impact events in the more recent past. But, much about the lunar impact history remains unknown.. On Earth approximately 172 impact craters up to ~300 km in diameter and up to ~2 Gyr in age are recognized. Although these data suggest greater relative numbers of younger craters, possibly suggesting a recent increase in projectile flux, both the diameters and especially the ages of most terrestrial crates are so poorly known that the differential terrestrial impact flux over time is uncertain. For the moon, densities of craters on some mare surfaces and crater ejecta deposits, for which we have measured or estimated formation ages, suggest an approximately constant lunar impact rate of larger projectiles over the past ~3.5 Gyr. However, the data are cumulative in nature and limited. Questions exist as to how accurately dated samples correlate with surfaces having measured crater densities. Studies of ages of many tiny impact-melt beads from Apollos 12 and 14 soils show a decrease in the number of beads with age from ~4 Gyr ago to ~0.4 Gyr ago, followed by a significant increase in beads with age <0.4 Gyr (2). These authors concluded that the projectile flux had decreased over time, followed by a significant flux increase more recently.

Bogard, Donald↗
NASA NTRS2006

Relationships Among Intrinsic Properties of Ordinary Chondrites: Oxidation State, Bulk Chemistry, Oxygen-isotopic Composition, Petrologic Type, and Chondrule Size

The properties of ordinary chondrites (OC) reflect both nebular and asteroidal processes. OC are modeled here as having acquired nebular water, probably contained within phyllosilicates, during agglomeration. This component had high Ai70 and acted like an oxidizing agent during thermal metamorphism. The nebular origin of this component is consistent with negative correlations in H, L, and LL chondrites between oxidation state (represented by olivine Fa) and bulk concentration ratios of elements involved in the metal-silicate fractionation (e.g., NdSi, Ir/Si, Ir/Mn, Ir/Cr, Ir/Mg, Ni/Mg, As/Mg, Ga/Mg). LL chondrites acquired the greatest abundance of phyllosilicates with high (delta)O-17 among OC (and thus became the most oxidized group and the one with the heaviest O isotopes); H chondrites acquired the lowest abundance, becoming the most reduced OC group with the lightest O isotopes. Chondrule precursors may have grown larger and more ferroan with time in each OC agglomeration zone. Nebular turbulence may have controlled the sizes of chondrule precursors. H-chondrite chondrules (which are the smallest among OC) formed from the smallest precursors. In each OC region, low-FeO chondrules formed before high-FeO chondrules during repeated episodes of chondrule formation. During thermal metamorphism, phyllosilicates were dehydrated; the liberated water oxidized metallic Fe-Ni. This caused correlated changes with petrologic type including decreases in the modal abundance of metal, increases in olivine Fa and low-Ca pyroxene Fs, increases in the olivine/pyroxene ratio, and increases in the kamacite Co and Ni contents. As water (with its heavy 0 isotopes) was lost during metamorphism, inverse correlations between bulk (delta)O-18 and bulk (delta)O-17 with petrologic type were produced. The H5 chondrites that were ejected from their parent body approx.7.5 Ma ago during a major impact event probably had been within a few kilometers of each other since they accreted approx.4.5 Ga ago. There are significant differences in the olivine compositional distributions among these rocks; these reflect stochastic nebular sampling of the oxidant (Le., phyllosilicates with high (delta)O-17) on a 0.1-1 km scale during agglomeration.

Rubin, Alan E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Postshock Annealing and Postannealing Shock in Equilibrated Ordinary Chondrites: Implications for the Thermal and Shock Histories of Chondritic Asteroids

In addition to shock effects in olivine, plagioclase, orthopyroxene and Ca-pyroxene, petrographic shock indicators in equilibrated ordinary chondrites (OC) include chromite veinlets, chromite-plagioclase assemblages, polycrystalline troilite, metallic Cu, irregularly shaped troilite grains within metallic Fe-Ni, rapidly solidified metal-sulfide intergrowths, martensite and various types of plessite, metal-sulfide veins, large metal and/or sulfide nodules, silicate melt veins, silicate darkening, low-Ca clinopyroxene, silicate melt pockets, and large regions of silicate melt. The presence of some of these indicators in every petrologic type-4 to -6 ordinary chondrite (OC) demonstrates that collisional events caused all equilibrated OC to reach shock stages S3-S6. Those type-4 to -6 OC that are classified as shock-stage S1 (on the basis of sharp optical extinction in olivine) underwent postshock annealing due to burial beneath materials heated by the impact event. Those type-4 to -6 OC that are classified S2 (on the basis of undulose extinction and lack of planar fractures in olivine) were shocked to stage S3-S6, annealed to stage S1 and then shocked again to stage S2. Some OC were probably shocked to stage 253 after annealing. It seems likely that many OC experienced multiple episodes of shock and annealing. Because 40Ar-39Ar chronological data indicate that MIL 99301 (LL6, Sl) was annealed approximately 4.26 Ga ago, presumably as a consequence of a major impact, it seems reasonable to suggest that other equilibrated S1 and S2 OC (which contain relict shock features) were also annealed by impacts. Because some type-6 S1 OC (e.g., Guarena, Kernouve, Portales Valley, all of which contain relict shock features) were annealed 4.44-4.45 Ga ago (during a period when impacts were prevalent and most OC were thermally metamorphosed), it follows that impact-induced annealing could have contributed significantly to OC thermal metamorphism.

Rubin, Alan E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Ar-Ar and I-XE Ages and the Thermal History of IAB Meteorites

Studies of several samples of the large Caddo County IAB iron meteorite reveal andesitic material, enriched in Si, Na, Al and Ca which is essentially unique among meteorites. This material is believed to have formed from a chondritic source by partial melting and to have further segregated by grain coarsening. Such an origin implies extended metamorphism of the IAB parent body. New Ar-39- Ar-40 ages for silicate from three different Caddo samples are consistent with a common age of 4.50- 4.51 Gyr ago. Less well defined Ar-Ar degassing ages for inclusions from two other IABs, EET8333 and Udei Station, are approx. 4.32 Gyr, whereas the age for Campo del Cielo varies considerably over approx. 3.23-4.56 Gyr. New I-129-Xe-129 ges for Caddo County and EET8333 are 4561.9 plus or minus 0.1 Myr and 4560-4563 Myr, respectively, relative to an age of 4566 Myr for Shallowater. Considering all reported Ar-Ar ages for IABs and related winonaites, the range is approx. 4.32-4.53 Gyr, but several IABs give similar Ar ages of 4.50-4.52 Gyr. We interpret these older ages to represent cooling after the time of last significant metamorphism on the parent body, and the younger ages to represent later 40Ar diffusion loss. These older Ar-Ar ages are similar to Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isochron ages reported in the literature for Caddo County. Considering the possibility that IAB parent body formation was followed by impact disruption, reassembly, and metamorphism (e.g., Benedix et al. 2000), the time of the postassembly metamorphism may have been as late as approx. 4.53 Gyr ago. However, precise I-Xe ages reported for some IABs define a range of ages of approx. 4560 to approx. 4576 Myr. The older I-Xe ages exceed the oldest precise radiometric ages of meteorites, appear unrealistic, and suggest a bias in the calibration of all I-Xe ages. But even with such a bias, the I-Xe ages of IABs cannot easily be reconciled with the much younger Ar-Ar and Sm-Nd ages and with cooling rates deduced from Ni concentration profiles in IAB metal (Herpfer et al., 1994). An explanation for the difference in radiometric ages of IABs may reside in combinations of the following: a) I-Xe ages have very high closure temperatures and were not reset during metamorphism; b) a bias exists in the K-40 decay constants; c) the reported Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr ages for Caddo are in error by amounts equal to or exceeding their reported 2-sigma uncertainties; and 4) the IAB parent body may have experienced a mild metamorphism approx.30 My after the initial heating that produced differentiation of Caddo silicate and mixing of silicate and metal.

Bogard, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Prospects for Chronological Studies of Martian Rocks and Soils

Chronological information about Martian processes comes from two sources: Crater-frequency studies and laboratory studies of Martian meteorites. Each has limitations that could be overcome by studies of returned Martian rocks and soils. Chronology of Martian volcanism: The currently accepted chronology of Martian volcanic surfaces relies on crater counts for different Martian stratigraphic units [1]. However, there is a large inherent uncertainty for intermediate ages near ~2 Ga ago. The effect of differing preferences for Martian cratering chronologies [1] is shown in Fig. 1. Stoeffler and Ryder [2] summarized lunar chronology, upon which Martian cratering chronology is based. Fig. 2 shows a curve fit to their data, and compares to it a corresponding lunar curve from [3]. The radiometric ages of some lunar and Martian meteorites as well as the crater-count delimiters for Martian epochs [4] also are shown for comparison to the craterfrequency curves. Scaling the Stoeffler-Ryder curve by a Mars/Moon factor of 1.55 [5] places Martian shergottite ages into the Early Amazonian to late Hesperian epochs, whereas using the lunar curve of [3] and a Mars/Moon factor ~1 consigns the shergottites to the Middle-to-Late Amazonian, a less probable result. The problem is worsened if a continually decreasing cratering rate since 3 Ga ago is accepted [6]. We prefer the adjusted St ffler-Ryder curve because it gives better agreement with the meteorite ages (Fig.

Nyquist, L. E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

21st Century Extravehicular Activities: Synergizing Past and Present Training Methods for Future Spacewalking Success

Neil Armstrong's understated words, "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." were spoken from Tranquility Base forty years ago. Even today, those words resonate in the ears of millions, including many who had yet to be born when man first landed on the surface of the moon. By their very nature, and in the the spirit of exploration, extravehicular activities (EVAs) have generated much excitement throughout the history of manned spaceflight. From Ed White's first space walk in June of 1965, to the first steps on the moon in 1969, to the expected completion of the International Space Station (ISS), the ability to exist, live and work in the vacuum of space has stood as a beacon of what is possible. It was NASA's first spacewalk that taught engineers on the ground the valuable lesson that successful spacewalking requires a unique set of learned skills. That lesson sparked extensive efforts to develop and define the training requirements necessary to ensure success. As focus shifted from orbital activities to lunar surface activities, the required skill-set and subsequently the training methods, changed. The requirements duly changed again when NASA left the moon for the last time in 1972 and have continued to evolve through the Skylab, Space Shuttle; and ISS eras. Yet because the visits to the moon were so long ago, NASA's expertise in the realm of extra-terrestrial EVAs has diminished. As manned spaceflight again shifts its focus beyond low earth orbit, EVA success will depend on the ability to synergize the knowledge gained over 40+ years of spacewalking to create a training method that allows a single crewmember to perform equally well, whether performing an EVA on the surface of the Moon, while in the vacuum of space, or heading for a rendezvous with Mars. This paper reviews NASA's past and present EVA training methods and extrapolates techniques from both to construct the basis for future EVA astronaut training.

Moore, Sandra K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Research Progress and Accomplishments on ISS

The first research payloads reached the International Space Station (ISS) more than two years ago, with research operating continuously since March 2001. Seven research racks are currently on-orbit, with three more arriving soon to expand science capabilities. Through the first five expeditions, 60 unique NASA-managed investigations from 11 nations have been supported, many continuing into later missions. More than 90,000 experiment hours have been completed, and more than 1,000 hours of crew time have been dedicated to research, numbers that grow daily. The multidisciplinary program includes research in life sciences, physical sciences, biotechnology, Earth sciences, technology demonstrations as well as commercial endeavors and educational activities. The Payload Operations and Integration Center monitors the onboard activities around the clock, working with numerous Principal Investigators and Payload Developers at their remote sites. Future years will see expansion of the station with research modules provided by the European Space Agency and Japan, which will be outfitted with additional research racks. The first research payloads arrived at ISS more than two years ago, and continuous science has been ongoing for more than one and a half years. During this time, the research capabilities have been tremendously increased, even as assembly of the overall platform continues. Despite significant challenges along the way, ISS continues to successfully support a large number of investigations in a variety of research disciplines. The results of some of the early investigations are reaching the publication stage. The near future looms with new challenges, but experience to date and dedicated efforts give reason to be optimistic that the challenges will be overcome and that new and greater successes will be added to past ones.

Roe, Lesa B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Carbon Crisis in 90 Seconds

This is a banana; and this is a chunk of coal. The banana is sweet and delicious and fun to eat... the coal is ... none of those things. But they are much more alike than they seem. Both were made by plants and store energy from the sun and carbon gas from the air around us. When you eat the banana, you use the energy stored in the banana to run and jump; and you release carbon gas back into the air around you. Now, carbon in the banana is young fast carbon: just weeks ago the banana was carbon gas in the air, and hours after you eat it, you breathe out the same carbon back into the air. When we burn coal in power plants, we use the energy stored in the coal to generate electricity that powers our homes and factories; and we release carbon gas back into the air around us. But, the carbon in the coal is old slow carbon. Plants took the coal carbon out of the air hundreds of millions of years ago. That carbon has been locked up ever since, and would stay locked up, if people hadn't dug up the coal and burned it. So now by burning coal and oil, people are adding lots and lots of old carbon to the atmosphere, faster than plants and the oceans can take it out. Why do I care? Because carbon gas in the atmosphere acts like a blanket, trapping heat, and making the whole planet warmer. My name is Peter, and I'm a carbon cycle scientist at NASA. We use satellites to watch how the world is warming. We can see the glaciers and the ice caps melting; and the air, land, and oceans warming. So we know we all have to change the way we produce and use energy, to burn less coal and oil, to prevent the planet from getting too warm.

Griffith, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2012

Isotopic Ratios in Titan's Methane: Measurements and Modeling

The existence of methane in Titan's atmosphere (approx. 6% level at the surface) presents a unique enigma, as photochemical models predict that the current inventory will be entirely depleted by photochemistry in a timescale of approx 20 Myr. In this paper, we examine the clues available from isotopic ratios (C-12/C-13 and D/H) in Titan's methane as to the past atmosphere history of this species. We first analyze recent infrared spectra of CH4 collected by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer, measuring simultaneously for the first time the abundances of all three detected minor isotopologues: (13)CH4, (12)CH3D, and (13)CH3D. From these we compute estimates of C-12/C-13 = 86.5 +/- 8.2 and D/H = (1.59 +/- 0.33) x 10(exp -4) , in agreement with recent results from the Huygens GCMS and Cassini INMS instruments. We also use the transition state theory to estimate the fractionation that occurs in carbon and hydrogen during a critical reaction that plays a key role in the chemical depletion of Titan's methane: CH4 + C2H yields CH3 + C2H2. Using these new measurements and predictions we proceed to model the time evolution of C-12/C-13 and D/H in Titan's methane under several prototypical replenishment scenarios. In our Model 1 (no resupply of CH4), we find that the present-day C-12/C-13 implies that the CH4 entered the atmosphere 60-1600 Myr ago if methane is depleted by chemistry and photolysis alone, but much more recently-most likely less than 10 Myr ago-if hydrodynamic escape is also occurring. On the other hand, if methane has been continuously supplied at the replenishment rate then the isotopic ratios provide no constraints, and likewise for the case where atmospheric methane is increasing, We conclude by discussing how these findings may be combined with other evidence to constrain the overall history of the atmospheric methane.

Nixon, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Complex Protostellar Chemistry

Two decades ago, our understanding chemistry in protostars was simple -- matter either fell into the central star or was trapped in planetary-scale objects. Some minor chemical changes might occur as the dust and gas fell inward, but such effects were overwhelmed by the much larger-scale processes that occurred even in bodies as small as asteroids. The chemistry that did occur in the nebula was relatively easy to model because the fall from the cold molecular cloud into the growing star was a one-way trip down a well-known temperature pressure gradient; the only free variable was time. However, just over 10 years ago it was suggested that some material could be processed in the inner nebula, flow outward, and become incorporated into comets. This outward flow was confirmed when the Stardust mission returned crystalline mineral fragments from Comet Wild 2 that must have been processed close to the Sun before they were incorporated into the comet. In this week's Science Express, Ciesla and Sandford demonstrate that even the outermost regions of the solar nebula can be a chemically active environment. Their finding could have consequences for the rest of the nebula. Our understanding of the chemistry in protostellar systems has made enormous progress over the last few decades, fueled by an increased awareness of the complex dynamics of these evolving energetic nebulae. We can no longer consider just the simple local environment to explain the composition of a planet, asteroid, or comet as was done in the past, but must now consider chemical processes that might take place within the nebula as a whole as well as the probability of transport and mixing the products of such reactions throughout the system. just as we now find it impossible to explain the complex chemistry of the terrestrial atmosphere without reference to detailed transport models that interconnect highly dissimilar chemical environments, so chemical models of protostars and of the solar nebula must eventually treat these environments as tightly coupled, interactive systems. The demonstration that the chemistry on the surfaces of outward-flowing, dynamically mixing icy grain surfaces both mimics the chemistry in cold cloud cores and strikes at the central assumption of the photochemical self-shielding model for oxygen isotopes in solar system solids only adds emphasis to this conclusion.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗