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Robust palladium hydride catalyst for electrocatalytic formate formation with high CO tolerance

Palladium is unique in the electrocatalytic reduction of CO 2 to formate because of its low or even near-equilibrium onset potential. However, the inevitably produced CO molecules poison and deactivate the catalyst surface, resulting in an insufficient operating lifetime (<30 min) for conventional and optimized Pd catalysts. In this work, we present a hydrogen-rich Palladium hydride catalyst (PdH0.5/C) derived from a one-step solvothermal synthesis. This catalyst showed a 93.1 % faradaic efficiency towards formate at – 0.4 V (vs RHE). The working lifetime reached a record of 4 h, which was ~15 times longer than a commercial Pd catalyst and outperformed all previous Pd-based electrocatalysts for CO 2 -HCOO – conversion. The high CO tolerance was attributed to the selectivity improvement induced by lattice hydrogen and the weak CO adsorption strength on diverse active sites (i.e. kink, step, and terrace). Isotopic analysis revealed a direct participation of the lattice hydrogen in the protonation of CO 2 molecules in formate formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Observation of molecular hydrogen produced from bridging hydroxyls on anatase TiO2(101)

Anatase TiO2 is used extensively in a wide range of catalytic and photocatalytic processes and is a promising catalyst for hydrogen production. Here, we show that molecular hydrogen was produced from bridging hydroxyls, HOb, on the (101) surface of single crystal anatase (a-TiO2(101)). Electron bombardment at 30 K produced bridging oxygen vacancies in the surface. Deuterated bridging hydroxyls, DOb, were subsequently formed via dissociation of adsorbed D2O and confirmed by infrared reflection-absorption spectroscopy. During temperature programmed desorption (TPD) spectroscopy, D2 desorption was observed at 520 K. Density functional theory calculations show that both H2 and H2O production from HOb are endothermic at 0 K on a-TiO2(101), but H2 (H2O) desorption is entropically driven above 230 K (800 K). The calculated activation barrier for H2 desorption is 1.40 eV, which is similar to the desorption energy obtained from analysis of the D2 TPD spectra. The H2 desorption likely proceeds in two steps: H atom diffusion on the surface and then recombination. The calculations indicate that diffusion of the hydrogen atoms into the subsurface could also be an important process. We thank Drs. Z. Dohnalek and R. Rousseau for stimulating discussions. This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, & Biosciences and performed in EMSL, a national scientific user facility sponsored by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL is a multiprogram national laboratory operated for DOE by Battelle. We also acknowledge the WPI computational facilities for providing resources to perform the DFT studies.

Deskins, N A.↗

A global perspective on bacterial diversity in the terrestrial deep subsurface

While recent efforts to catalogue Earth’s microbial diversity have focused upon surface and marine habitats, 12–20% of Earth’s biomass is suggested to exist in the terrestrial deep subsurface, compared to ~1.8% in the deep subseafloor. Metagenomic studies of the terrestrial deep subsurface have yielded a trove of divergent and functionally important microbiomes from a range of localities. However, a wider perspective of microbial diversity and its relationship to environmental conditions within the terrestrial deep subsurface is still required. Our meta-analysis reveals that terrestrial deep subsurface microbiota are dominated by Betaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes, probably as a function of the diverse metabolic strategies of these taxa. Evidence was also found for a common small consortium of prevalent Betaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria operational taxonomic units across the localities. This implies a core terrestrial deep subsurface community, irrespective of aquifer lithology, depth and other variables, that may play an important role in colonizing and sustaining microbial habitats in the deep terrestrial subsurface. An in silico contamination-aware approach to analysing this dataset underscores the importance of downstream methods for assuring that robust conclusions can be reached from deep subsurface-derived sequencing data. Understanding the global panorama of microbial diversity and ecological dynamics in the deep terrestrial subsurface provides a first step towards understanding the role of microbes in global subsurface element and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Local-Distance Seismic Event Relocation and Relative Magnitude Estimation, Applications to Mining Related Seismicity in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Recent efforts to characterize small ( M w < 3 ) seismic events at local distances have become more important because of the increased observation of human-triggered and induced seismicity and the need to advance nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities. The signals generated by low-magnitude seismic sources necessitate the use of nearby short-period observations, which are sensitive to local geological heterogeneity. Local to near-regional distance ( < 300 km ) surface and shear waves can dominate short-period observations from small, shallow seismic sources. In this work, we utilize these observations to estimate precise, relative locations and magnitudes of ~ 700 industrial mining events in Wyoming, using nearly 360,000 observations. The precise, relative location estimates (with formal location uncertainty estimates of less than 1 km) collapse a diffuse collection of mining events into discrete clusters associated with individual blasting operations. We also invert the cross-correlation amplitudes to estimate precise, relative moment magnitude estimates, which help validate and identify disparities in the event sizes reported by regional network catalogs. Joint use of multiple phases allows for the inclusion of more seismic events due to the increase in the number of observations. In some cases, using a single phase allowed us to relocate only 50% of the original reported seismic events within a cluster. Combining shear- and surface-wave phases increased the number of events to above 90% of the original events, allowing us to characterize a broader range of event sizes, source to station distances, and event distributions. This analysis takes a step toward making a fuller characterization of small industrial seismic events observed at local distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

User's manual for University of Arizona APART program (Analysis Program - Arizona Radiation Trace)

A description and operating instructions for the Analysis Program Arizona Radiation Trace (APART) are given. This is a computer program that is able to efficiently and accurately predict the off-axis rejection characteristics of unwanted stray radiation for complex rotationally symmetric optical systems. The program first determines the critical objects or areas that scatter radiation to the image plane either directly or through imaging elements: this provides the opportunity to modify, if necessary, the design so that the number of critical areas seen by the image plane is reduced or the radiation to these critical areas is minimized. Next, the power distribution reaching the image plane and a sectional power map of all internal surfaces are computed. Angular information is also provided that relates the angle by which the radiation came into a surface to the angle by which the radiation is scattered out of the surface.

Breault, R. P.↗

Method for the prediction of the installation aerodynamics of a propfan at subsonic speeds: User manual

This document is the user's guide for the method developed earlier for predicting the slipstream wing interaction at subsonic speeds. The analysis involves a subsonic panel code (HESS code) modified to handle the propeller onset flow. The propfan slipstream effects are superimposed on the normal flow boundary condition and are applied over the surface washed by the slipstream. The effects of the propeller slipstream are to increase the axial induced velocity, tangential velocity, and a total pressure rise in the wake of the propeller. Principles based on blade performance theory, momentum theory, and vortex theory were used to evaluate the slipstream effects. The code can be applied to any arbitrary three dimensional geometry, expressed in the form of HESS input format. The code can handle a propeller alone configuration or a propeller/nacelle/airframe configuration, operating up to high subcritical Mach numbers over a range of angles of attack. Inclusion of a viscous modelling is briefly outlined. Wind tunnel results/theory comparisons are included as examples for the application of the code to a generic supercritical wing/overwing Nacelle with a powered propfan. A sample input/output listing is provided.

Chandrasekaran, B.↗

Internal strain analysis of ceramics using scanning laser acoustic microscopy

Quantitative studies of material behavior characteristics are essential for predicting the functionality of a material under its operating conditions. A nonintrusive methodology for measuring the in situ strain of small dimeter (to 11 microns) ceramic fibers under uniaxial tensile loading and the local internal strains of ceramics and ceramic composites under flexural loading is introduced. The strain measurements and experimentally observed mechanical behavior are analyzed in terms of the microstructural development and fracture behavior of each test specimen evaluated. Measurement and analysis of Nicalon silicon carbide (SiC) fiber (15 microns diameter) indicate that the mean elastic modulus of the individual fiber is 185.3 GPa. Deviations observed in the experimentally determined elastic modulus values between specimens were attributed to microstructural variations which occur during processing. Corresponding variations in the fracture surface morphology were also observed. The observed local mechanical behavior of a lithium alumino-silicate (LAS) glass ceramic, a LAS/SiC monofilament composite, and a calcium alumino-silicate (CAS)/SiC fully reinforced composite exhibits nonlinearities and apparent hysteresis due to the subcritical mechanical loading. Local hysteresis in the LAS matrices coincided with the occurrence of multiple fracture initiation sites, localized microcracking, and secondary cracking. The observed microcracking phenomenon was attributed to stress relaxation of residual stresses developed during processing, and local interaction of the crack front with the microstructure. The relaxation strain and stress predicted on apparent mechanical hysteresis effects were defined and correlated with the magnitude of the measured fracture stress for each specimen studied. This quantitative correlation indicated a repeatable measure of the stress at which matrix microcracking occurred for stress relief of each material system. Stress relaxation occurred prior to the onset of steady state cracking conditions. The relaxation stress occurred at 18.5 percent of the fracture stress in LAS and 11.0 percent of the yield stress in CAS/SiC. The relaxation stress ratio was dependent upon the dominant fracture mode of the LAS/SiC specimens. Relaxation stress ratios greater than 0.30 were observed for specimens which fractured due to shear at the fiber matrix interface; specimens which fracture due to tensile cracking had relaxation stress ratios less than 0.30. The stress relaxation ratio appeared to be a specific characteristic of the glass ceramic material. The measured stress relaxation for LAS indicated a measure of the inherent residual stresses in the material due to processing and suggested localized toughening mechanisms for brittle material structures.

Kent, Renee M.↗

Development of Electrostatically Clean Solar Array Panels

Certain missions require Electrostatically Clean Solar Array (ECSA) panels to establish a favorable environment for the operation of sensitive scientific instruments. The objective of this program was to demonstrate the feasibility of an ECSA panel that minimizes panel surface potential below 100mV in LEO and GEO charged particle environments, prevents exposure of solar cell voltage and panel insulating surfaces to the ambient environment, and provides an equipotential, grounded structure surrounding the entire panel. An ECSA panel design was developed that uses a Front Side Aperture-Shield (FSA) that covers all inter-cell areas with a single graphite composite laminate, composite edge clips for connecting the FSA to the panel substrate, and built-in tabs that interconnect the FSA to conductive coated coverglasses using a conductive adhesive. Analysis indicated the ability of the design to meet the ECSA requirements. Qualification coupons and a 0.5m x 0.5m prototype panel were fabricated and tested for photovoltaic performance and electrical grounding before and after exposure to acoustic and thermal cycling environments. The results show the feasibility of achieving electrostatic cleanliness with a small penalty in mass, photovoltaic performance and cost, with a design is structurally robust and compatible with a wide range of current solar panel technologies.

Stern, Theodore G.↗

Integrated Nozzle Design for the GTX RBCC Flowpath

The development of rocket based combined cycle (RBCC) engines are highly dependent upon integrating several different modes of operation into a single system. Due to the integrated nature of the propulsion system, each operating mode relies on the same expansion system to provide thrust. A fixed geometry, altitude-compensating aft-expansion configuration is used for the GTX flowpath configuration. Initial studies on the GTX expansion designs have demonstrated the importance of a smooth, highly integrated design for propulsion system performance. Based upon the results from the initial studies, further design improvements were made to the expansion system. Nozzles designed based on both conical and streamline traced flowfields; are discussed. Results from 3-D CFD calculations on an optimized geometry are also presented. A series of cold-flow experiments are proposed to validate the CFD analysis and quantify performance of the flowpath expansions surface design. A discussion is provided of the research hardware designs and experimental test plans.

Smith, Timothy D.↗

System for Centering a Turbofan in a Nacelle During Tests

A feedback position-control system has been developed for maintaining the concentricity of a turbofan with respect to a nacelle during acoustic and flow tests in a wind tunnel. The system is needed for the following reasons: Thermal and thrust loads can displace the fan relative to the nacelle; In the particular test apparatus (see Figure 1), denoted as a rotor-only nacelle (RAN), the struts, vanes, and other stator components of a turbofan engine that ordinarily maintain the required concentricity in the face of thermal and thrust loads are not present; and The struts and stator components are not present because it is necessary to provide a flow path that is acoustically clean in the sense that the measured noise can be attributed to the fan alone. The system is depicted schematically in Figure 2. The nacelle is supported by two struts attached to a two-axis traverse table located outside the wind-tunnel wall. Two servomotors acting through 100:1 gearboxes drive the table along the Y and Z axes, which are perpendicular to the axis of rotation. The Y and Z components of the deviation from concentricity are measured by four laser displacement sensors mounted on the nacelle and aimed at reflective targets on the center body, which is part of the fan assembly. The outputs of the laser displacement sensors are digitized and processed through a personal computer programmed with control software. The control output of the computer commands the servomotors to move the table as needed to restore concentricity. Numerous software and hardware travel limits and alarms are provided to maximize safety. A highly ablative rub strip in the nacelle minimizes the probability of damage in the event that a deviation from concentricity exceeds the radial clearance [<0.004 in. (<0.1 mm)] between the inner surface of the nacelle and the tips of the fan blades. To be able to prevent an excursion in excess of the tip clearance, the system must be accurate enough to control X and Y displacements to within 0.001 in. (.0.025 mm). One characteristic essential to such accuracy is sufficient rigidity in the mechanical components of the system to prevent excitation of vibrations in the strut/ nacelle subsystem. The need for such a high degree of accuracy prompted a comprehensive analysis of sources of measurement and control errors, followed by rigorous design efforts to minimize these errors. As a result, the design of the system incorporates numerous improvements in hardware, software, and operational procedures.

Cunningham, Cameron C.↗

ARES Biennial Report 2012 Final

Since the return of the first lunar samples, what is now the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Directorate has had curatorial responsibility for all NASA-held extraterrestrial materials. Originating during the Apollo Program (1960s), this capability at Johnson Space Center (JSC) included scientists who were responsible for the science planning and training of astronauts for lunar surface activities as well as experts in the analysis and preservation of the precious returned samples. Today, ARES conducts research in basic and applied space and planetary science, and its scientific staff represents a broad diversity of expertise in the physical sciences (physics, chemistry, geology, astronomy), mathematics, and engineering organized into three offices (figure 1): Astromaterials Research (KR), Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation (KT), and Human Exploration Science (KX). Scientists within the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office preserve, protect, document, and distribute samples of the current astromaterials collections. Since the return of the first lunar samples, ARES has been assigned curatorial responsibility for all NASA-held extraterrestrial materials (Apollo lunar samples, Antarctic meteorites - some of which have been confirmed to have originated on the Moon and on Mars - cosmic dust, solar wind samples, comet and interstellar dust particles, and space-exposed hardware). The responsibilities of curation consist not only of the longterm care of the samples, but also the support and planning for future sample collection missions and research and technology to enable new sample types. Curation provides the foundation for research into the samples. The Lunar Sample Facility and other curation clean rooms, the data center, laboratories, and associated instrumentation are unique NASA resources that, together with our staff's fundamental understanding of the entire collection, provide a service to the external research community, which relies on access to the samples. The curation efforts are greatly enhanced by a strong group of planetary scientists who conduct peerreviewed astromaterials research. Astromaterials Research Office scientists conduct peer-reviewed research as Principal or Co-Investigators in planetary science (e. g., cosmochemistry, origins of solar systems, Mars fundamental research, planetary geology and geophysics) and participate as Co-Investigators or Participating Scientists in many of NASA's robotic planetary missions. Since the last report, ARES has achieved several noteworthy milestones, some of which are documented in detail in the sections that follow. Within the Human Exploration Science Office, ARES is a world leader in orbital debris research, modeling and monitoring the debris environment, designing debris shielding, and developing policy to control and mitigate the orbital debris population. ARES has aggressively pursued refinements in knowledge of the debris environment and the hazard it presents to spacecraft. Additionally, the ARES Image Science and Analysis Group has been recognized as world class as a result of the high quality of near-real-time analysis of ascent and on-orbit inspection imagery to identify debris shedding, anomalies, and associated potential damage during Space Shuttle missions. ARES Earth scientists manage and continuously update the database of astronaut photography that is predominantly from Shuttle and ISS missions, but also includes the results of 40 years of human spaceflight. The Crew Earth Observations Web site (http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/Education/ESS/crew.htm) continues to receive several million hits per month. ARES scientists are also influencing decisions in the development of the next generation of human and robotic spacecraft and missions through laboratory tests on the optical qualities of materials for windows, micrometeoroid/orbital debris shielding technology, and analog activities to assess surface science operations. ARES serves as host to numerous students and visiting scientists as part of the services provided to the research community and conducts a robust education and outreach program. ARES scientists are recognized nationally and internationally by virtue of their success in publishing in peer-reviewed journals and winning competitive research proposals. ARES scientists have won every major award presented by the Meteoritical Society, including the Leonard Medal, the most prestigious award in planetary science and cosmochemistry; the Barringer Medal, recognizing outstanding work in the field of impact cratering; the Nier Prize for outstanding research by a young scientist; and several recipients of the Nininger Meteorite Award. One of our scientists received the Department of Defense (DoD) Joint Meritorious Civilian Service Award (the highest civilian honor given by the DoD). ARES has established numerous partnerships with other NASA Centers, universities, and national laboratories. ARES scientists serve as journal editors, members of advisory panels and review committees, and society officers, and several scientists have been elected as Fellows in their professional societies. This biennial report summarizes a subset of the accomplishments made by each of the ARES offices and highlights participation in ongoing human and robotic missions, development of new missions, and planning for future human and robotic exploration of the solar system beyond low Earth orbit.

Stansbery, Eileen↗

The Prediction and Analysis of Jet Flows and Scattered Turbulent Mixing Noise about Flight Vehicle Airframes

Jet flows interacting with nearby surfaces exhibit a complex behavior in which acoustic and aerodynamic characteristics are altered. The physical understanding and prediction of these characteristics are essential to designing future low noise aircraft. A new approach is created for predicting scattered jet mixing noise that utilizes an acoustic analogy and steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. A tailored Green's function accounts for the propagation of mixing noise about the airframe and is calculated numerically using a newly developed ray tracing method. The steady aerodynamic statistics, associated unsteady sound source, and acoustic intensity are examined as jet conditions are varied about a large flat plate. A non-dimensional number is proposed to estimate the effect of the aerodynamic noise source relative to jet operating condition and airframe position.The steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions, acoustic analogy, tailored Green's function, non-dimensional number, and predicted noise are validated with a wide variety of measurements. The combination of the developed theory, ray tracing method, and careful implementation in a stand-alone computer program result in an approach that is more first principles oriented than alternatives, computationally efficient, and captures the relevant physics of fluid-structure interaction.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗

Simulation insights into wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay for hydrogen geo-storage

Hydrogen geo-storage is attracting substantial interdisciplinary interest as a cost-effective and sustainable option for medium- and long-term storage. Hydrogen can be stored underground in diverse formations, including aquifers, salt caverns, and depleted oil and gas reservoirs. The wetting dynamics of the hydrogen-brine-rock system are critical for assessing both structural and residual storage capacities, and ensuring containment safety. Through molecular dynamics simulations, we explore how varying concentrations of cushion gases (CO 2 or CH 4 ) influence the wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay systems under geological conditions (15 MPa and 333 K). We employed models of talc and the hydroxylated basal face of kaolinite (kaoOH) as clay substrates. Our findings reveal that the effect of cushion gases on hydrogen-brine-clay wettability is strongly dependent on the clay-brine interactions. Notably, CO 2 and CH 4 reduce the water wettability of talc in hydrogen-brine-talc systems, while exerting no influence on the wettability of hydrogen-brine-kaoOH systems. Detailed analysis of free energy of cavity formation near clay surfaces, clay-brine interfacial tensions, and the Willard-Chandler surface for gas-brine interfaces elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying wettability changes. Our simulations identify empirical correlations between wetting properties and the average free energy required to perturb a flat interface when clay-brine interactions are less dominant. Here, our thorough thermodynamic analysis of rock-fluid and fluid-fluid interactions, aligning with key experimental observations, underscores the utility of simulated interfacial properties in refining contact angle measurements and predicting experimentally relevant properties. These insights significantly enhance the assessment of gas geo-storage potential. Prospectively, the approaches and findings obtained from this study could form a basis for more advanced multiscale simulations that consider a range of geological and operational variables, potentially guiding the development and improvement of geo-storage systems in general, with a particular focus on hydrogen storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A three-dimensional pore-scale model for redox flow battery electrode design analysis

A three-dimensional (3-D) pore-scale model has been developed to construct multiscale fibrous electrodes for redox flow batteries (RFB). New designs, such as biporous electrodes modify electrode structures by creating secondary pores on single carbon fiber to reduce internal battery resistance. Existing pore-scale models only resolve electrodes to the single carbon fiber scale and cannot incorporate recent multiscale electrode designs into numerical models. Our new model aims to bridge this gap and provide a tool to rapidly screen new electrode configurations. Two multiscale electrodes, laser-perforated and biporous electrodes, were investigated at varying operation conditions with the proposed 3-D pore-scale models. The laser-perforated electrode exhibits a reduced pressure drop, but follows the same permeability correlation compared to the corresponding pristine electrode. For the biporous electrode, the added specific surface area and faster reaction kinetics from the secondary pores are the most influential factors leading to improved battery efficiency. However, operating the biporous electrode in limiting current density conditions should be avoided due to the decreased mass transfer efficiency and a more significant voltage loss. Finally, we believe that our 3-D pore-scale model can accelerate the flow battery electrode design process and provide new insights into electrode geometry optimizations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Studying the Durability of Molybdenum Carbide Aerogel as an Electrocatalyst Support for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells

Carbon-supported platinum nanoparticles (Pt/C) are currently the state-of-the-art catalyst in proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). Unfortunately, the carbon support lacks the ability to stabilize the metal catalyst, as platinum tends to dissolve and agglomerate, significantly compromising the durability. Herein, we synthesized a ceramic material, molybdenum carbide aerogel (MCAG), and utilized it as a Pt support for PEMFCs, as an alternative for conventional carbon supports. N 2 adsorption and XRD analysis showed that the MCAG possesses a combination of high porosity and a well-defined ceramic crystalline structure. The Pt/MCAG system was studied for its electrocatalytic activity toward ORR in a half-cell and demonstrated satisfactory reaction kinetics and electrochemical active surface area, comparable to the commercial Pt/C. For durability examination, an accelerated stress test (AST) in a single cell was conducted with the Pt/MCAG catalyst at the cathode, following the U.S. DOE electrocatalyst AST protocol. Intermediate polarization curves and cyclic voltammograms were recorded over the course of the AST to monitor the aging process. The results indicated that the MCAG support exhibited superior durability in long-term fuel cell operation compared to a carbon support. The Pt/MCAG system demonstrated stable behavior during the progressive stages of the AST, retaining more than 50% of its initial performance by the end of the test, whereas carbon-supported Pt preserved only 30%.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Memory-Aware External Facelist Calculation: A Data-Parallel Atomic Hash Counting Approach

Unstructured volumetric meshes serve as fundamental data representations in various scientific simulations and analyses. They play a crucial role in representing complex computational domains and are essential for important numerical techniques, such as finite element analysis. Whenever such a mesh is read from a file, streamed in-situ, or generated by algorithms, scientific visualization libraries rely on calculating the external surface of a geometry, named “external facelist”, to produce a polygonal mesh for rendering. Consequently, external facelist calculation has become one of the most widely used algorithms in the scientific visualization domain, necessitating optimal performance. In this paper, we explore relevant work on external facelist calculation algorithms in two common visualization libraries, VTK and Viskores, assess their performance and memory constraints, and introduce a novel memory-aware external facelist calculation algorithm employing an atomic hash counting approach. This algorithm fully leverages Viskores' data-parallel primitive operations, facilitating its execution across diverse many-core architectures. Our algorithm features the lowest memory footprint on the GPU and the second-lowest on the CPU among all evaluated methods, and it also delivers the fastest performance on both CPU and GPU. It has been made available under an open-source license in the VTK and Viskores visualization systems.

Tsalikis, Spiros [Kitware] (ORCID:0000000151137195↗

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Plasma Processing of Lunar Regolith Simulant for Diverse Applications

Versatile manufacturing technologies for extracting resources from the moon are needed to support future space missions. Of particular interest is the production of gases and metals from lunar resources for life support, propulsion, and in-space fabrication. Deposits made from lunar regolith could yield highly emissive coatings and near-net shaped parts for replacement or repair of critical components. Equally important is development of high fidelity lunar simulants for ground based validation of potential lunar surface operations. Described herein is an innovative plasma processing technique for insitu production of gases, metals, coatings, and deposits from lunar regolith, and synthesis of high fidelity lunar simulant from NASA issued lunar simulant JSC-1. Initial plasma reduction trials of JSC-1 lunar simulant have indicated production of metallic iron and magnesium. Evolution of carbon monoxide has been detected subsequent to reduction of the simulant using the plasma process. Plasma processing of the simulant has also resulted in glassy phases resembling the volcanic glass and agglutinates found in lunar regolith. Complete and partial glassy phase deposits have been obtained by varying the plasma process variables. Experimental techniques, product characterization, and process gas analysis will be discussed.

Schofield, Elizabeth C.↗

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