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DOE OSTI2017

Non-local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Stellar Spectroscopy with 1D and 〈3D〉 Models. II. Chemical Properties of the Galactic Metal-poor Disk and the Halo

From exploratory studies and theoretical expectations it is known that simplifying approximations in spectroscopic analysis (local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), 1D) lead to systematic biases of stellar parameters and abundances. These biases depend strongly on surface gravity, temperature and, in particular, for LTE versus non-LTE (NLTE), on metallicity of the stars. Here we analyze the [Mg/Fe] and [Fe/H] plane of a sample of 326 stars, comparing LTE and NLTE results obtained using 1D hydrostatic models and averaged 〈3D〉 models. We show that compared to the 〈3D〉 NLTE benchmark, the other three methods display increasing biases toward lower metallicities, resulting in false trends of [Mg/Fe] against [Fe/H], which have profound implications for interpretations by chemical evolution models. In our best 〈3D〉 NLTE model, the halo and disk stars show a clearer behavior in the [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] plane, from the knee in abundance space down to the lowest metallicities. Our sample has a large fraction of thick disk stars and this population extends down to at least [Fe/H] ∼ −1.6 dex, further than previously proven. The thick disk stars display a constant [Mg/Fe] ≈ 0.3 dex, with a small intrinsic dispersion in [Mg/Fe] that suggests that a fast SN Ia channel is not relevant for the disk formation. The halo stars reach higher [Mg/Fe] ratios and display a net trend of [Mg/Fe] at low metallicities, paired with a large dispersion in [Mg/Fe]. These indicate the diverse origin of halo stars from accreted low-mass systems to stochastic/inhomogeneous chemical evolution in the Galactic halo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

ARE WE THERE YET? TIME TO DETECTION OF NANOHERTZ GRAVITATIONAL WAVES BASED ON PULSAR-TIMING ARRAY LIMITS

Decade-long timing observations of arrays of millisecond pulsars have placed highly constraining upper limits on the amplitude of the nanohertz gravitational-wave stochastic signal from the mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (∼10{sup −15} strain at f = 1 yr{sup −1}). These limits suggest that binary merger rates have been overestimated, or that environmental influences from nuclear gas or stars accelerate orbital decay, reducing the gravitational-wave signal at the lowest, most sensitive frequencies. This prompts the question whether nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs) are likely to be detected in the near future. In this Letter, we answer this question quantitatively using simple statistical estimates, deriving the range of true signal amplitudes that are compatible with current upper limits, and computing expected detection probabilities as a function of observation time. We conclude that small arrays consisting of the pulsars with the least timing noise, which yield the tightest upper limits, have discouraging prospects of making a detection in the next two decades. By contrast, we find large arrays are crucial to detection because the quadrupolar spatial correlations induced by GWs can be well sampled by many pulsar pairs. Indeed, timing programs that monitor a large and expanding set of pulsars have an ∼80% probability of detecting GWs within the next 10 years, under assumptions on merger rates and environmental influences ranging from optimistic to conservative. Even in the extreme case where 90% of binaries stall before merger and environmental coupling effects diminish low-frequency gravitational-wave power, detection is delayed by at most a few years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Probabilistic inference of basic stellar parameters: application to flickering stars

The relations between observable stellar parameters are usually assumed to be deterministic. That is, given an infinitely precise measurement of independent variable, “x”, and some model, the value of dependent variable, “y” can be known exactly. In practice this assumption is rarely valid and intrinsic stochasticity means that two stars with exactly the same “x” will have slightly different “y”s. The relation between short-timescale brightness fluctuations (flicker) of stars and both surface gravity and stellar density are two such stochastic relations that have until now been treated as deterministic ones. We recalibrate these relations in a probabilistic framework, using hierarchical Bayesian modeling to constrain the instrinsic scatter in the relations. We find evidence for additional scatter in the relationship, that cannot be accounted for by the observational uncertainties alone. The scatter in surface gravity and stellar density does not depend on flicker, suggesting that using flicker as a proxy for logg and ρ {sub ⋆} is equally valid for dwarf and giant stars, despite the fact that the observational uncertainties tend to be larger for dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmogenic 3 He exposure dating in mafic rocks by “Virtual mineral separation” of pyroxene

We describe a “virtual mineral separation” method for measuring the cosmogenic 3 He concentration in pyroxene in mafic rocks that consist mainly of plagioclase and pyroxene, without physically separating the minerals. This approach is significantly faster and more cost-effective than the conventional method, which requires physical separation and purification of pyroxene grains by time-consuming and labor-intensive crushing, acid cleaning, magnetic separation, HF etching, and handpicking under a microscope. The premise of the method is that helium diffusivity is much higher in plagioclase than in pyroxene, so controlled preheating of a mixed whole-rock sample can degas 3 He from plagioclase while retaining all 3 He in pyroxene. A second heating step releases all 3 He from pyroxene for measurement. To then obtain a 3 He concentration in pyroxene rather than the whole rock, we determine the pyroxene weight fraction in the sample using X-ray computed tomography (CT). A comparison of 3 He concentrations in pyroxene measured using virtual mineral separation with those measured in the same samples by physical mineral separation in previous work shows no evidence of systematic bias between the methods. Virtual mineral separation greatly simplifies the workflow for 3 He exposure-dating of mafic rocks, reduces time, effort, and cost, and permits measurements on very small samples. This enables new emerging applications of exposure dating, such as quantifying stochastic surface processes, ecosystem studies, and potential subglacial bedrock exposure dating.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS1963