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Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗

Fracture Behavior in Nylon 6 Fibers

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) techniques are used to determine the number of free radicals produced during deformation leading to fracture of nylon 6 fibers. A reaction rate molecular model is proposed to explain some of the deformation and bond rupture behavior leading to fracture. High-strength polymer fibers are assumed to consist of a sandwich structure of disordered and ordered regions along the fiber axis. In the disordered or critical flaw regions, tie chains connecting the ordered or crystalline block regions are assumed to have a statistical distribution in length. These chains are, therefore, subjected to different stresses. The effective length distribution was determined by EPR. The probability of bond rupture was assumed to be controlled by reaction-rate theory with a stress-aided activation energy and behavior of various loadings determined by numerical techniques. The model is successfully correlated with experimental stress, strain, and bond rupture results for creep, constant rate loadings, cyclic stress, stress relaxation and step strain tests at room temperature.

Lloyd, B. A.↗

Energetic and magnetosheath energy particle signatures of the low-latitude boundary layer at low altitudes near noon

The low-latitude boundary layer (LBL) and its separation from the cusp have previously been identified using observations of particle precipitation at magnetosheath energies. Using S3-3 satellite observations, we have determined that these identifications can also be made from energetic particle observations on polar-orbiting satellites. It is found that the equatorward boundary of the LBL is identifiable as an approximately discontinuous decrease in 33-keV electron fluxes from low to high latitudes. Both the energetic ion and electron fluxes decrease discontinuously at the boundary between the LBL and the cusp or polar cap. A distinct LBL is nearly always identifiable in energetic particle measurements in the 10-14 MLT region when counting rates are statistically significant. The identifications obtained using the energetic particle measurements have been compared to those obtained using criteria developed by Newell and Meng (1988, 1989) for magnetosheath energy particle precipitation. In this way, we have evaluated the accuracy of both techniques and used the energetic particle measurements to supplement the identifications obtained using the Newell and Meng criteria. We propose that the Newell and Meng threshold on ion energy flux can be reduced by a factor of 6. This modification provides identification of the LBL for lower ion intensity levels than has previously been thought possible. Source, acceleration, and scattering processes have also been studied within and in the vicinity of the LBL. Observed trapped pitch angle distributions of energetic electrons imply that the LBL is at least partially on closed field lines. Strong scattering of energetic protons is found within and equatorward of the LBL and thus must occur at least partially along closed field lines. Field-aligned electron acceleration by parallel electric fields can be discerned within and poleward of the LBL, but a more detailed analysis is necessary for a statistical study. Conical ion acceleration was seen relatively frequently within the LBL and about half as often poleward of the LBL. Neither acceleration process could be identified anywhere equatorward of the LBL.

Roeder, J. L.↗

Enhancing scalability of a matrix-free eigensolver for studying many-body localization

We propose several techniques to enhance the parallel scalability of a matrix-free eigensolver designed for studying many-body localization (MBL) of quantum spin chain models with nearest-neighbor interactions and on-site disorder. This type of problem is computationally challenging because the dimension of the associated Hamiltonian matrix grows exponentially with respect to the number of spins L, and we need to average over different realizations of the random disorder to obtain relevant statistical behavior. For each disorder realization, we need to compute eigenvalues from different regions of the spectrum and their corresponding eigenvectors. In previous work, the interior eigenstates for a single eigenvalue problem are computed via the shift-and-invert Lanczos algorithm. Due to the extremely high memory footprint of the LU factorizations, this technique is not well suited for large L’s. For example, we need thousands of compute nodes on modern high performance computing infrastructures to go beyond L = 24. The matrix-free approach does not suffer from this memory bottleneck, however, its scalability is limited by a computation and communication load imbalance. To reduce this imbalance and to significantly enhance the scalability of the matrix-free eigensolver, we reorder the matrix and leverage the consistent space runtime, CSPACER. We also show its efficiency in managing irregular communication patterns at scale compared to optimized MPI non-blocking two-sided and one-sided RMA implementation variants. This effort enables us to study MBL for spin chains with a larger number of spins. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by computing eigenstates on a massively parallel many-core high performance computer.

METIS↗

Laser interference structuring of Cu for adhesive joining of HVAC equipment

Due to potential energy and cost savings benefits, adhesive joining has been recently considered for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. HVAC adhesive bonding requires cost-effective and adequate surface preparations of adherents. Here, this article investigates the use of abrasion, traditional single-beam laser, and a laser-interference technique as surface preparations of copper surfaces. Surface morphology is characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Effective submicrometer peak-to-valley structuring with a periodicity of ∼2.7μ⁢m was demonstrated for laser-interference processing. Single-lap shear tests were conducted for 89 joints made with bondline thicknesses of 0.15 and 0.3 mm. Data on process variables and measured variables included open-time, bond length, maximum load, displacement at failure, shear lap strength, and failure mode. A statistical analysis was conducted on each lot to determine the lower limit with 95% confidence intervals for displacements at failure and shear lap strengths. A comparison is presented between the properties of laser-structured joints with respect to those prepared by abrasion, which is considered the baseline surface preparation technique. Based on this comparison, one single-beam laser technique and two laser-interference techniques were shown to exhibit vastly superior performance over the joints made with abraded specimens.

Sabau, Adrian S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

Detecting Thermally Induced Spinodal Decomposition with Picosecond Ultrasonics in Cast Austenitic Stainless Steels

Given the existential climate crisis faced by mankind and the world, the lifetime and sustainability of nuclear reactors as a carbon-free source of renewable energy depend on the susceptibility of their structural components to environmental degradation. In particular, critical components for light water reactors (LWRs) evolve over decades in service, losing ductility and toughness due to thermal and irradiation aging. Techniques to monitor their health cannot be easily applied in the field due to their destructive, expensive, or immobile nature. Thus, non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods are sought to monitor and evaluate the health of major LWR components such as core barrels, steam generator tubes, or primary coolant pipes and are often required by policy, such as NRC policy #10-CFR-50.65. In this work we demonstrate the use of gigahertz, non-contact ultrasonics to gauge the state of cast austenitic stainless steels (CASS), used in some of the largest components in LWR primary systems. We do so by linking changes in their surface acoustic wave (SAW) characteristics using transient grating spectroscopy (TGS) to transmission electron microscopy (TEM)-verified evidence of spinodal decomposition and G-phase precipitation. In this thesis, thermal aging is shown to induce SAW peak splitting in spinodally decomposed CASS alloys, correlated strongly with lowered toughness and decreased ductility. Furthermore, statistical testing on the number of SAW peak splits observed show that the second SAW peak significantly appears more frequently and is significantly different in frequency in comparison to counts and frequencies measured in unaged specimens. The ability of this technique to non-destructively detect microstructural degradation at a distance in a predictive manner in the case of CASS motivates extending gigahertz ultrasonics to detect other LWR material degradation modes as an in-vessel inspection technique, such as reactor pressure vessel (RPV) embrittlement. This allows for the greater use of NDE techniques for confident monitoring of LWR structural material health to 80 years and beyond, saving costs by minimizing structural replacements until needed and maximizing energy production by preventing early decommission until necessary.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurement of charge state distributions using a scintillation screen

Absolute cross sections measured using electromagnetic devices to separate and detect heavy recoiling ions need to be corrected for charge state fractions. Accurate prediction of charge state distributions using theoretical models is not always a possibility, especially in energy and mass regions where data is sparse. As such, it is often necessary to measure charge state fractions directly. In this paper we present a novel method of using a scintillation screen along with a CMOS camera to image the charge dispersed beam after a set of magnetic dipoles. A measurement of the charge state distribution for 88 Sr passing through a natural carbon foil is performed. Using a Bayesian model to extract statistically meaningful uncertainties from these images, we find agreement between the new method and a more traditional method using Faraday cups. Additional future work is need to better understand systematic uncertainties. Our technique offers a viable method to measure charge state distributions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Augmentation of MS/MS Libraries with Spectral Interpolation for Improved Identification

Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is a primary tool for identification of small molecules and metabolites where resultant spectra are most commonly identified by matching them with spectra in MS/MS reference libraries. The high degree of variability in MS/MS spectrum acquisition techniques and parameters creates a significant challenge for building standardized reference libraries. Here we present a method to improve the usefulness of existing MS/MS libraries by augmenting available experimental spectra datasets with statistically interpolated spectra at unreported collision energies. We find that highly accurate spectral approximations can be interpolated from as few as three experimental spectra and that the interpolated spectra will be consistent with true spectra gathered from the same instrument as the experimental spectra. Supplementing existing spectral databases with interpolated spectra yields consistent improvements to identification accuracy on a range of instruments and precursor types. Applying this method yields significant improvements (~10% more spectra correctly identified) on large datasets (2,000 - 10,000 spectra), indicating this is a quick yet adept tool for improving spectral matching in situations where available reference libraries are not yet sufficient. We also find improvements of matching spectra across instrument types (between an Agilent Q-TOF and an Orbitrap Elite), at high collision energies (50 - 90 eV), and with smaller datasets available through MassBank.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probabilistic inference of the structure and orbit of Milky Way satellites with semi-analytic modelling

Semi-analytic modelling furnishes an efficient avenue for characterizing dark matter haloes associated with satellites of Milky Way-like systems, as it easily accounts for uncertainties arising from halo-to-halo variance, the orbital disruption of satellites, baryonic feedback, and the stellar-to-halo mass (SMHM) relation. We use the SatGen semi-analytic satellite generator, which incorporates both empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection as well as analytic prescriptions for the orbital evolution of these satellites after accretion onto a host to create large samples of Milky Way-like systems and their satellites. By selecting satellites in the sample that match observed properties of a particular dwarf galaxy, we can infer arbitrary properties of the satellite galaxy within the cold dark matter paradigm. For the Milky Way’s classical dwarfs, we provide inferred values (with associated uncertainties) for the maximum circular velocity v max and the radius r max at which it occurs, varying over two choices of baryonic feedback model and two prescriptions for the SMHM relation. While simple empirical scaling relations can recover the median inferred value for v max and r max , this approach provides realistic correlated uncertainties and aids interpretability. We also demonstrate how the internal properties of a satellite’s dark matter profile correlate with its orbit, and we show that it is difficult to reproduce observations of the Fornax dwarf without strong baryonic feedback. Furthermore, the technique developed in this work is flexible in its application of observational data and can leverage arbitrary information about the satellite galaxies to make inferences about their dark matter haloes and population statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Probing the PeV region in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum using 𝜈 𝜇 from the Southern sky

IceCube has observed a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux over the energy region from a few TeV to a few PeV. At PeV energies, the spectral shape is not yet well measured due to the low statistics of the data. This analysis probes the gap between 1 and 10 PeV by using high-energy downgoing muon neutrinos. Here, to reject the large atmospheric muon background, two complementary techniques are combined. The first technique selects events with high stochasticity to reject atmospheric muon bundles whose stochastic energy losses are smoothed due to high muon multiplicity. The second technique vetoes atmospheric muons with the IceTop surface array. Using 9 yrs of data, we found two neutrino candidate events in the signal region, consistent with expectation from background, each with relatively high signal probabilities. A joint maximum likelihood estimation is performed using this sample and an independent 9.5-yr sample of tracks to measure the neutrino spectrum. A likelihood ratio test is done to compare the single power-law (SPL) vs SPL+cutoff hypothesis; the SPL+cutoff model is not significantly better than the SPL. High-energy astrophysical objects from four source catalogs are also checked around the direction of the two events. No significant coincidence was found.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University Chicago] (ORCID:0000↗

Fingerprinting fractons with pump-probe spectroscopy

We demonstrate how pump-probe techniques enable specific spectroscopic diagnostics of fracton phases of matter by studying lineon-planon braiding in the paradigmatic X-cube model. Our discussion builds on previous works probing anyonic exchange statistics in conventional spin liquids, but the extension to fracton phases reveals qualitatively different phenomena due to the restricted mobility of fractionalized excitations. A key feature is that nearby planons can form an emergent bound state by accessing different planes via alternative pairing configurations. We show that this bound state qualitatively modifies the long-time linear and nonlinear responses, leading to an asymptotic linear-in-𝑡 behavior for the pump-probe signal 𝜒 𝑍𝑍𝑋 . By contrast, swapping the pump and probe polarizations produces a nonlinear response 𝜒 𝑋𝑋𝑍 that is asymptotically 𝑡 independent. This asymmetry reflects the fact that the two species of fractionalized excitations live in different spatial dimensions. Thus the pump-probe signals studied here are sensitive to (i) nontrivial braiding statistics in three dimensions, (ii) the existence of bound states among fractionalized excitations, and (iii) the one-dimensional mobility of lineons. Furthermore, our results therefore provide spectroscopic signatures that distinguish fracton phases from conventional topologically ordered spin liquids.

braiding↗

A computational study of turbulent separated flow over a wall-mounted cube at two different Reynolds numbers and incoming velocity profiles

Simulations of the canonical wall-mounted unit cube subjected to two distinct incident velocity profiles is performed at Reynolds numbers (Re) where the bulk flow characteristics are known to become relatively Re-insensitive using both direct numerical simulation (DNS) and wall-resolved large eddy simulation (WRLES). The aim of this work is to highlight the sensitivity of such bluff-body flows to mean shear and to provide a representative set of data for such flow scenarios where common turbulence modeling techniques often fail. Simple boundary conditions are selected to allow for easy comparisons for model development purposes and avoid confounding effects from freestream turbulence. In addition to mean velocity profiles, select turbulence statistics are presented in detail. We find that both mean velocity profiles and mean wake turbulence are Re-insensitive over the range examined here.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Response of aerospace structures to reentry aerodynamic excitation

A bibliography on aerodynamic excitation and associated structural response is presented. Very little applicable data under actual reentry conditions was found, but many wind tunnel tests and some in-flight data were. Aerodynamic excitation and proposed space shuttle configurations and reentry trajectories were studied. Attached turbulent boundary layer, separated turbulent boundary layer, and base pressure fluctuations are the region of aerodynamic excitation most applicable to exterior panels of space shuttle-type vehicles; prediction techniques are presented for these environments. Methods for predicting the response of panel structures to acoustic excitation were investigated. A normal mode approach was developed for the low frequency response and a statistical energy approach was utilized for the high frequency response. A finite element model was made of a thermal protective system test panel. Computer programs were used to determine the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the panel and to calculate the response of the panel to a reverberant acoustic field. Power spectral densities of response displacement and acceleration are presented.

Carlin, D., Jr.↗

Results on the energy dependence of cosmic ray charge composition

Measurements using a balloon-borne ionization spectrometer on the differential energy spectra of the heavy nuclei of the galactic cosmic radiation are reported. The spectra of individual elements up to oxygen and groups of nuclei up through iron were measured up to almost 100 GeV/nucleon. The energy spectrum of the secondary nuclei, B+N, is steeper than that of the primary nuclei, C+O, by gamma = 0.21 + or - .09 in agreement with other authors. The spectral shapes found are reasonably well represented by single power laws between 2 and 60 GeV/nucleon. Data are consistent with the decrease in the secondary to primary ratio found by others above 20 GeV/nucleon, but it shows no evidence for any sudden change in this ratio within counting statistics. The most dramatic finding is that the spectrum of the iron nuclei is flatter than that of the carbon and oxygen nuclei by 0.57 + or - 0.14 of a power. The experimental techniques for charge and energy determination are presented and corrections due to nuclear disintegration and losses of energy out the bottom of the spectrometer are discussed.

Balasubrahmanyan, V. K.↗

Bistatic-radar estimation of surface-slope probability distributions with applications to the moon.

A method for extracting surface-slope frequency distributions from bistatic-radar data has been developed and applied to the lunar surface. Telemetry transmissions from orbiting Apollo spacecraft were received on the earth after reflection from the lunar surface. The echo-frequency spectrum was related analytically to the probability distribution of lunar slopes. Standard regression techniques were used to solve the inverse problem of finding slope distributions from observed echo-frequency spectra. Data taken simultaneously at two wavelengths, 13 and 116 cm, have yielded diverse slope statistics.

Parker, M. N.↗

Channel simulation for direct-detection optical communication systems

A technique is described for simulating the random modulation imposed by atmospheric scintillation and transmitter pointing jitter on a direct-detection optical communication system. The system is capable of providing signal fading statistics which obey log-normal, beta, Rayleigh, Ricean, or chi-square density functions. Experimental tests of the performance of the channel simulator are presented.

Tycz, M.↗

A scanning laser velocimeter for turbulence research

Turbulent and unsteady separated flows occur on most practical flight vehicles, but are not yet sufficiently understood for designs to provide safe margins of performance without recourse to extensive experiment and computation. In date, reliable experimental data for even basic flows is severely limited and does not yet provide a satisfactory data base with which to assess current design and calculation methods. Although the laser velocimeter (LV) has become a proven, nonintrusive instrument for the measurement of local mean velocities and turbulence properties, measurements have been of a mean, statistical nature derived from averages accumulated independently at different positions in the flow. Thus, the measurements do not give an instantaneous dynamic, picture of the flow-field structures. Accordingly, a new technique for rapid LV scans of turbulent flow fields was proposed. The potential of this new instrument for fundamental fluid mechanical measurements of turbulent flows has been demonstrated. The results clearly show that significant unsteady flow features are hidden by conventional measurements and that the scanning laser velocimeter should prove an invauable tool in future studies of the structure of turbulent flows.

Duen, F. K.↗

Error analyses for the delivery of a spinning probe to Jupiter

The task of delivering the Galileo Probe to specified atmospheric entry conditions at Jupiter is especially challenging because tracking, trajectory corrections, and attitude adjustments are not possible after release of the Probe from the carrier vehicle. Statistical analysis of the spacecraft dynamics mapped into Probe dispersions in atmosphere-relative and relay-geometry parameters show that attitude stability, heating, and relay performance requirements can be satisfied. Reconstruction techniques are used to enhance estimates of the delivery parameters to permit correct interpretation of the scientific data for the Jovian atmosphere. A tradeoff which sacrifices some delivery accuracy and propellant is shown to guarantee satisfaction of a very tight reconstruction requirement for the trajectory considered in this report.

Hintz, G. R.↗

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