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A robust approach to chance constrained optimal power flow with renewable generation

Optimal Power Flow (OPF) dispatches controllable generation at minimum cost subject to operational constraints on generation and transmission assets. The uncertainty and variability of intermittent renewable generation is challenging current deterministic OPF approaches. Recent formulations of OPF use chance constraints to limit the risk from renewable generation uncertainty, however, these new approaches typically assume the probability distributions which characterize the uncertainty and variability are known exactly. We formulate a robust chance constrained (RCC) OPF that accounts for uncertainty in the parameters of these probability distributions by allowing them to be within an uncertainty set. The RCC OPF is solved using a cutting-plane algorithm that scales to large power systems. We demonstrate the RRC OPF on a modified model of the Bonneville Power Administration network, which includes 2209 buses and 176 controllable generators. In conclusion, deterministic, chance constrained (CC), and RCC OPF formulations are compared using several metrics including cost of generation, area control error, ramping of controllable generators, and occurrence of transmission line overloads as well as the respective computational performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Role of Design-of-Experiments in Managing Flow in Compact Air Vehicle Inlets

It is the purpose of this study to demonstrate the viability and economy of Design-of-Experiments methodologies to arrive at microscale secondary flow control array designs that maintain optimal inlet performance over a wide range of the mission variables and to explore how these statistical methods provide a better understanding of the management of flow in compact air vehicle inlets. These statistical design concepts were used to investigate the robustness properties of low unit strength micro-effector arrays. Low unit strength micro-effectors are micro-vanes set at very low angles-of-incidence with very long chord lengths. They were designed to influence the near wall inlet flow over an extended streamwise distance, and their advantage lies in low total pressure loss and high effectiveness in managing engine face distortion. The term robustness is used in this paper in the same sense as it is used in the industrial problem solving community. It refers to minimizing the effects of the hard-to-control factors that influence the development of a product or process. In Robustness Engineering, the effects of the hard-to-control factors are often called noise , and the hard-to-control factors themselves are referred to as the environmental variables or sometimes as the Taguchi noise variables. Hence Robust Optimization refers to minimizing the effects of the environmental or noise variables on the development (design) of a product or process. In the management of flow in compact inlets, the environmental or noise variables can be identified with the mission variables. Therefore this paper formulates a statistical design methodology that minimizes the impact of variations in the mission variables on inlet performance and demonstrates that these statistical design concepts can lead to simpler inlet flow management systems.

Anderson, Bernhard H.↗

Pycheron: A Python-Based Seismic Waveform Data Quality Control Software Package

Supplementing an existing high-quality seismic monitoring network with openly available station data could improve coverage and decrease magnitudes of completeness; however, this can present challenges when varying levels of data quality exist. Without discerning the quality of openly available data, using it poses significant data management, analysis, and interpretation issues. Incorporating additional stations without properly identifying and mitigating data quality problems can degrade overall monitoring capability. If openly available stations are to be used routinely, a robust, automated data quality assessment for a wide range of quality control (QC) issues is essential. To meet this need, we developed Pycheron, a Python-based library for QC of seismic waveform data. Pycheron was initially based on the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology’s Modular Utility for STAtistical kNowledge Gathering but has been expanded to include more functionality. Pycheron can be implemented at the beginning of a data processing pipeline or can process stand-alone data sets. Its objectives are to (1) identify specific QC issues; (2) automatically assess data quality and instrumentation health; (3) serve as a basic service that all data processing builds on by alerting downstream processing algorithms to any quality degradation; and (4) improve our ability to process orders of magnitudes more data through performance optimizations. This article provides an overview of Pycheron, its features, basic workflow, and an example application using a synthetic QC data set.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Passive Aerogravity Assisted Trajectories for a Mars Atmospheric Sample Return Mission

A number of studies have demonstrated that aerodynamic lift during a planetary low-altitude atmospheric flyby can increase the V(sub infinity) bending angle and the total delta V achievable from gravity assist. Aero-Gravity Assist (AGA) trajectories of this type require a significantly high spacecraft L/D (lift-to-drag) ratio and a fairly robust closed-loop guidance algorithm capable of providing a desired control authority for level, nearly constant-altitude atmospheric flight. The AGA concept has been described in some previous publications as one of the techniques for Mars and Venus atmospheric sample return mission design strategies. Recent analysis has demonstrated that passive, ballistic (zero-lift) aeropass trajectories could equally satisfy potential future sample return mission objectives and provide quite robust and simple alternatives to a complex guided AGA lifting trajectory design.

sample return missions↗

Proximity Navigation of Highly Constrained Spacecraft

Bandit is a 3-kg automated spacecraft in development at Washington University in St. Louis. Bandit's primary mission is to demonstrate proximity navigation, including docking, around a 25-kg student-built host spacecraft. However, because of extreme constraints in mass, power and volume, traditional sensing and actuation methods are not available. In particular, Bandit carries only 8 fixed-magnitude cold-gas thrusters to control its 6 DOF motion. Bandit lacks true inertial sensing, and the ability to sense position relative to the host has error bounds that approach the size of the Bandit itself. Some of the navigation problems are addressed through an extremely robust, error-tolerant soft dock. In addition, we have identified a control methodology that performs well in this constrained environment: behavior-based velocity potential functions, which use a minimum-seeking method similar to Lyapunov functions. We have also adapted the discrete Kalman filter for use on Bandit for position estimation and have developed a similar measurement vs. propagation weighting algorithm for attitude estimation. This paper provides an overview of Bandit and describes the control and estimation approach. Results using our 6DOF flight simulator are provided, demonstrating that these methods show promise for flight use.

Scarritt, S.↗

Fuzzy logic controller versus classical logic controller for residential hybrid solar-wind-storage energy system

Several researches for management of diverse hybrid energy systems and many techniques have been proposed for robustness, savings and environmental purpose. In this work we aim to make a comparative study between two supervision and control techniques: fuzzy and classic logics to manage the hybrid energy system applied for typical housing fed by solar and wind power, with rack of batteries for storage. The system is assisted by the electric grid during energy drop moments. A hydrogen production device is integrated into the system to retrieve surplus energy production from renewable sources for the household purposes, intending the maximum exploitation of these sources over years. The models have been achieved and generated signals for electronic switches command of proposed both techniques are presented and discussed in this paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robustness

The concept of rubustness includes design simplicity, component and path redundancy, desensitization to the parameter and environment variations, control of parameter variations, and punctual operations. These characteristics must be traded with functional concepts, materials, and fabrication approach against the criteria of performance, cost, and reliability. The paper describes the robustness design process, which includes the following seven major coherent steps: translation of vision into requirements, definition of the robustness characteristics desired, criteria formulation of required robustness, concept selection, detail design, manufacturing and verification, operations.

Ryan, Robert↗

Robust Coordination for Large Sets of Simple Rovers

The ability to coordinate sets of rovers in an unknown environment is critical to the long-term success of many of NASA;s exploration missions. Such coordination policies must have the ability to adapt in unmodeled or partially modeled domains and must be robust against environmental noise and rover failures. In addition such coordination policies must accommodate a large number of rovers, without excessive and burdensome hand-tuning. In this paper we present a distributed coordination method that addresses these issues in the domain of controlling a set of simple rovers. The application of these methods allows reliable and efficient robotic exploration in dangerous, dynamic, and previously unexplored domains. Most control policies for space missions are directly programmed by engineers or created through the use of planning tools, and are appropriate for single rover missions or missions requiring the coordination of a small number of rovers. Such methods typically require significant amounts of domain knowledge, and are difficult to scale to large numbers of rovers. The method described in this article aims to address cases where a large number of rovers need to coordinate to solve a complex time dependent problem in a noisy environment. In this approach, each rover decomposes a global utility, representing the overall goal of the system, into rover-specific utilities that properly assign credit to the rover s actions. Each rover then has the responsibility to create a control policy that maximizes its own rover-specific utility. We show a method of creating rover-utilities that are "aligned" with the global utility, such that when the rovers maximize their own utility, they also maximize the global utility. In addition we show that our method creates rover-utilities that allow the rovers to create their control policies quickly and reliably. Our distributed learning method allows large sets rovers be used unmodeled domains, while providing robustness against rover failures and changing environments. In experimental simulations we show that our method scales well with large numbers of rovers in addition to being robust against noisy sensor inputs and noisy servo control. The results show that our method is able to scale to large numbers of rovers and achieves up to 400% performance improvement over standard machine learning methods.

Tumer, Kagan↗

Adjustment of Adaptive Gain with Bounded Linear Stability Analysis to Improve Time-Delay Margin for Metrics-Driven Adaptive Control

This paper presents the application of Bounded Linear Stability Analysis (BLSA) method for metrics driven adaptive control. The bounded linear stability analysis method is used for analyzing stability of adaptive control models, without linearizing the adaptive laws. Metrics-driven adaptive control introduces a notion that adaptation should be driven by some stability metrics to achieve robustness. By the application of bounded linear stability analysis method the adaptive gain is adjusted during the adaptation in order to meet certain phase margin requirements. Analysis of metrics-driven adaptive control is evaluated for a linear damaged twin-engine generic transport model of aircraft. The analysis shows that the system with the adjusted adaptive gain becomes more robust to unmodeled dynamics or time delay.

Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam↗

Dissipative rendering and neural network control system design

Model-based control system designs are limited by the accuracy of the models of the plant, plant uncertainty, and exogenous signals. Although better models can be obtained with system identification, the models and control designs still have limitations. One approach to reduce the dependency on particular models is to design a set of compensators that will guarantee robust stability to a set of plants. Optimization over the compensator parameters can then be used to get the desired performance. Conservativeness of this approach can be reduced by integrating fundamental properties of the plant models. This is the approach of dissipative control design. Dissipative control designs are based on several variations of the Passivity Theorem, which have been proven for nonlinear/linear and continuous-time/discrete-time systems. These theorems depend not on a specific model of a plant, but on its general dissipative properties. Dissipative control design has found wide applicability in flexible space structures and robotic systems that can be configured to be dissipative. Currently, there is ongoing research to improve the performance of dissipative control designs. For aircraft systems that are not dissipative active control may be used to make them dissipative and then a dissipative control design technique can be used. It is also possible that rendering a system dissipative and dissipative control design may be combined into one step. Furthermore, the transformation of a non-dissipative system to dissipative can be done robustly. One sequential design procedure for finite dimensional linear time-invariant systems has been developed. For nonlinear plants that cannot be controlled adequately with a single linear controller, model-based techniques have additional problems. Nonlinear system identification is still a research topic. Lacking analytical models for model-based design, artificial neural network algorithms have recently received considerable attention. Using their universal approximation property, neural networks have been introduced into nonlinear control designs in several ways. Unfortunately, little work has appeared that analyzes neural network control systems and establishes margins for stability and performance. One approach for this analysis is to set up neural network control systems in the framework presented above. For example, one neural network could be used to render a system to be dissipative, a second strictly dissipative neural network controller could be used to guarantee robust stability.

Gonzalez, Oscar R.↗

Surface-Engineered MXenes: Electric Field Control of Magnetism and Enhanced Magnetic Anisotropy

Controlling magnetism in two-dimensional (2D) materials via electric fields and doping enables robust long-range order by providing an external mechanism to modulate magnetic exchange interactions and anisotropy. Here in this report, we predict that transition metal carbide and nitride MXenes are promising candidates for controllable magnetic 2D materials. The surface terminations introduced during synthesis act as chemical dopants that influence the electronic structure, enabling controllable magnetic order. We show ground-state magnetic ordering in Janus M 2 XO x F 2–x (M is an early transition metal, X is carbon or nitrogen, and x = 0.5, 1, or 1.5) with asymmetric surface functionalization, where local structural and chemical disorder induces magnetic ordering in some systems that are nonmagnetic or weakly magnetic in their pristine form. The resulting magnetic states of these noncentrosymmetric structures can be robustly switched and stabilized by tuning the interlayer exchange couplings with small applied electric fields. Furthermore, bond directionality is enhanced by Janus functionalization, resulting in improved magnetic anisotropy, which is essential to stable 2D magnetic ordering. The mixed termination-induced anisotropy leads to robust Ising ferromagnetism with an out-of-plane easy axis over the full range of relevant termination compositions for Janus Mn 2 N. Janus Cr 2 C, V 2 C, and Ti 2 C were found to be robustly antiferromagnetic. Our results provide a strategy for exploiting asymmetric surface functionalization to achieve room-temperature nanoscale magnetism under ambient conditions in MXenes with currently available synthesis techniques.

2D materials↗

Advanced manufacturing—A transformative enabling capability for fusion

Additive Manufacturing (AM) can create novel and complex engineered material structures. Features such as controlled porosity, micro-fibers and/or nano-particles, transitions in materials and integral robust coatings can be important in developing solutions for fusion subcomponents. A realistic understanding of this capability would be particularly valuable in identifying development paths. Major concerns for using AM processes with lasers or electron beams that melt powder to make refractory parts are the power required and residual stresses arising in fabrication. A related issue is the required combination of lasers or e-beams to continue heating of deposited material (to reduce stresses) and to deposit new material at a reasonable built rate while providing adequate surface finish and resolution for meso-scale features. Some Direct Write processes that can make suitable preforms and be cured to an acceptable density may offer another approach for PFCs.

Additive Manufacturing, fusion energy, Fusion Mate↗

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A realworld highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Neural Network for Positioning Space Station Solar Arrays

As a shuttle approaches the Space Station Freedom for a rendezvous, the shuttle's reaction control jet firings pose a risk of excessive plume impingement loads on Freedom solar arrays. The current solution to this problem, in which the arrays are locked in a feathered position prior to the approach, may be neither accurate nor robust, and is also expensive. An alternative solution is proposed here: the active control of Freedom's beta gimbals during the approach, positioning the arrays dynamically in such a way that they remain feathered relative to the shuttle jet most likely to cause an impingement load. An artificial neural network is proposed as a means of determining the gimbal angles that would drive plume angle of attack to zero. Such a network would be both accurate and robust, and could be less expensive to implement than the current solution. A network was trained via backpropagation, and results, which compare favorably to the current solution as well as to some other alternatives, are presented. Other training options are currently being evaluated.

Graham, Ronald E.↗

Fixed-Order Mixed Norm Designs for Building Vibration Control

This study investigates the use of H2, mu-synthesis, and mixed H2/mu methods to construct full order controllers and optimized controllers of fixed dimensions. The benchmark problem definition is first extended to include uncertainty within the controller bandwidth in the form of parametric uncertainty representative of uncertainty in the natural frequencies of the design model. The sensitivity of H2 design to unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainty is evaluated for a range of controller levels of authority. Next, mu-synthesis methods are applied to design full order compensators that are robust to both unmodeled dynamics and to parametric uncertainty. Finally, a set of mixed H2/mu compensators are designed which are optimized for a fixed compensator dimension. These mixed norm designs recover the H2 design performance levels while providing the same levels of robust stability as the mu designs. It is shown that designing with the mixed norm approach permits higher levels of controller authority for which the H2 designs are destabilizing. The benchmark problem is that of an active tendon system. The controller designs are all based on the use of acceleration feedback.

Whorton, Mark S.↗

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A real- world highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗

Linear-quadratic-Gaussian synthesis with reduced parameter sensitivity

We present a method for improving the tolerance of a conventional LQG controller to parameter errors in the plant model. The improvement is achieved by introducing additional terms reflecting the structure of the parameter errors into the LQR cost function, and also the process and measurement noise models. Adjusting the sizes of these additional terms permits a trade-off between robustness and nominal performance. Manipulation of some of the additional terms leads to high gain controllers while other terms lead to low gain controllers. Conditions are developed under which the high-gain approach asymptotically recovers the robustness of the corresponding full-state feedback design, and the low-gain approach makes the closed-loop poles asymptotically insensitive to parameter errors.

Lin, J. Y.↗

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