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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources III - Modeling the Impacts of Post-fire Restoration Methods on Vegetation Recovery in the Gila National Forest

In recent years, wildfires in New Mexico’s Gila National Forest have become increasingly common and more severe. Wildfires can have powerful impacts on hydrology and soil stability, including erosion, flooding, and debris-flows that threaten lives and infrastructure downstream. Vegetation restoration treatments like seeding and mulching can mitigate these effects and facilitate ecosystem recovery. Understanding the effectiveness of various restoration methods is vital to planning a cost-effective and successful post-fire recovery strategy. The immediate response to a fire on US Forest Service land is coordinated by a Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team, a group responsible for mitigating immediate post-fire risks to human life, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. This study created a proof-of-concept methodology for a decision-support tool designed to help BAER teams identify the restoration treatments most likely to succeed in a given burned area. Leveraging random forest regression, Google Earth Engine, and Landsat 7 and 8 Earth observations, this study modeled vegetation recovery after the 2013 Silver Fire for seeded areas, seeded/mulched areas, and untreated areas. Treatment type and initial burn severity were the largest drivers of vegetation recovery across the landscape. Seeded/mulched areas showed higher recovery levels than untreated areas three months post-fire, but by four years post-fire, treated and untreated areas displayed similar recovery levels. To produce a robust predictive tool for the Gila National Forest, the model should be trained on many more fires and incorporate post-fire weather conditions into the process. Such a model will help partners ensure efficient resource use and plan effective post-fire restoration strategies.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning thermodynamically constrained equations of state with uncertainty

Numerical simulations of high energy-density experiments require equation of state (EOS) models that relate a material’s thermodynamic state variables—specifically pressure, volume/density, energy, and temperature. EOS models are typically constructed using a semi-empirical parametric methodology, which assumes a physics-informed functional form with many tunable parameters calibrated using experimental/simulation data. Since there are inherent uncertainties in the calibration data (parametric uncertainty) and the assumed functional EOS form (model uncertainty), it is essential to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve confidence in EOS predictions. Model uncertainty is challenging for UQ studies since it requires exploring the space of all possible physically consistent functional forms. Thus, it is often neglected in favor of parametric uncertainty, which is easier to quantify without violating thermodynamic laws. This work presents a data-driven machine learning approach to constructing EOS models that naturally captures model uncertainty while satisfying the necessary thermodynamic consistency and stability constraints. We propose a novel framework based on physics-informed Gaussian process regression (GPR) that automatically captures total uncertainty in the EOS and can be jointly trained on both simulation and experimental data sources. A GPR model for the shock Hugoniot is derived, and its uncertainties are quantified using the proposed framework. We apply the proposed model to learn the EOS for the diamond solid state of carbon using both density functional theory data and experimental shock Hugoniot data to train the model and show that the prediction uncertainty is reduced by considering thermodynamic constraints.

Sharma, Himanshu (ORCID:000900050235718X)↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online evolutionary neural architecture search for multivariate non-stationary time series forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is one of the most important tasks in data science. TSF models are usually pre-trained with historical data and then applied on future unseen datapoints. However, real-world time series data is usually non-stationary and models trained offline usually face problems from data drift. Models trained and designed in an offline fashion can not quickly adapt to changes quickly or be deployed in real-time. To address these issues, this work presents the Online NeuroEvolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm, which is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Without any pre-training, ONE-NAS utilizes populations of RNNs that are continuously updated with new network structures and weights in response to new multivariate input data. ONE-NAS is tested on real-world, large-scale multivariate wind turbine data as well as the univariate Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dataset. These results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods, including online linear regression, fixed long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models trained online, as well as state-of-the-art, online ARIMA strategies. Additionally, results show that utilizing multiple populations of RNNs which are periodically repopulated provide significant performance improvements, allowing this online neural network architecture design and training to be successful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Designing clay-polymer nanocomposite sorbents for water treatment: A review and meta-analysis of the past decade

Clay-polymer nanocomposites (CPNs) have been studied for two decades as sorbents for water pollutants, but their applicability remains limited. Our aim in this review is to present the latest progress in CPN research using a meta-analysis approach and identify key steps necessary to bridge the gap between basic research and CPN application. Based on results extracted from 99 research articles on CPNs and 8 review articles on other widely studies sorbents, CPNs had higher adsorption capacities for several inorganic and organic pollutant classes (including heavy metals, oxyanions, and dyes, n = 308 observations). We applied principal component analysis, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regressions to test how CPN and pollutant properties correlated with Langmuir adsorption model coefficients. While adsorption was, surprisingly, not influenced by mineral properties, it was influenced by CPN fabrication method, polymer functional groups, and pollutant properties. For example, among the pollutant classes, heavy metals had the highest adsorption capacity but the lowest adsorption affinity. Conversely, dyes had high adsorption affinities, as reflected by the linear correlation between adsorption affinity and pollutant molecular weight. Scaling from ‘basic research’ to ‘technological application’ requires testing CPN performance in real water, application in columns, comparison to commercial sorbents, regeneration, and cost evaluation. However, our survey indicates that of the 158 observations, only 20 compared the CPN's performance to that of a commercial sorbent. We anticipate that this review will promote the design of smart and functional CPNs, which can then evolve into an effective water treatment technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Semi-supervised Machine Learning Enables the Robust Detection of Multireference Character at Low Cost

Multireference (MR) diagnostics are common tools for identifying strongly correlated electronic structure that makes single-reference (SR) methods (e.g., density functional theory or DFT) insufficient for accurate property prediction. However, MR diagnostics typically require computationally demanding correlated wave function theory (WFT) calculations, and diagnostics often disagree or fail to predict MR effects on properties. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a semi-supervised machine learning (ML) approach with virtual adversarial training (VAT) of an MR classifier using 15 WFT and DFT MR diagnostics as inputs. In semi-supervised learning, only the most extreme SR or MR points are labeled, and the remaining point labels are learned. The resulting VAT model outperforms the alternatives, as quantified by the distinct property distributions of SR- and MR-classified molecules. Additionally, to reduce the cost of generating inputs to the VAT model, we leverage the VAT model’s robustness to noisy inputs by replacing WFT MR diagnostics with regression predictions in an MR decision engine workflow that preserves excellent performance. We demonstrate the transferability of our approach to larger molecules and those with distinct chemical composition from the training set. This MR decision engine demonstrates promise as a low-cost, high-accuracy approach to the automatic detection of strong correlation for predictive high-throughput screening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-informed machine learning

Despite great progress in simulating multiphysics problems using the numerical discretization of partial differential equations (PDEs), one still cannot seamlessly incorporate noisy data into existing algorithms, mesh generation remains complex, and high-dimensional problems governed by parameterized PDEs cannot be tackled. Moreover, solving inverse problems with hidden physics is often prohibitively expensive and requires different formulations and elaborate computer codes. Machine learning has emerged as a promising alternative, but training deep neural networks requires big data, not always available for scientific problems. Instead, such networks can be trained from additional information obtained by enforcing the physical laws (for example, at random points in the continuous space-time domain). Such physics-informed learning integrates (noisy) data and mathematical models, and implements them through neural networks or other kernel-based regression networks. Moreover, it may be possible to design specialized network architectures that automatically satisfy some of the physical invariants for better accuracy, faster training and improved generalization. Furthermore, we review some of the prevailing trends in embedding physics into machine learning, present some of the current capabilities and limitations and discuss diverse applications of physics-informed learning both for forward and inverse problems, including discovering hidden physics and tackling high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Discovery of Active Nematic Hydrodynamics

Active nematics can be modeled using phenomenological continuum theories that account for the dynamics of the nematic director and fluid velocity through partial differential equations (PDEs). While these models provide a statistical description of the experiments, the relevant terms in the PDEs and their parameters are usually identified indirectly. We adapt a recently developed method to automatically identify optimal continuum models for active nematics directly from spatio-temporal data, via sparse regression of the coarse-grained fields onto generic low order PDEs. After extensive benchmarking, we apply the method to experiments with microtubule-based active nematics, finding a surprisingly minimal description of the system. Furthermore, our approach can be generalized to gain insights into active gels, microswimmers, and diverse other experimental active matter systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model results and data for Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Development

Data included in this submission support the analysis conducted for the report "Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Development" which is linked bellow. These data include information about the power purchase agreements (PPAs) analyzed for the report, inputs and model results for the pro forma economic analysis, and outputs from the regression analysis conducted on PPAs comparing geothermal and other power generation technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reactor Power Level Estimation by Fusing Multi-Modal Sensor Measurements

Estimates of the power level of a nuclear reactor based on measurements from an independent monitoring sensor system can help in the compliance verification of its declared operations. We present a three-level fusion method to estimate the power level of a nuclear reactor using features derived from infrared, electromagnetic, and acoustic sensor measurements collected in proximity to the reactor. Based on a simplified analytical model of the secondary coolant system of the reactor, we identify partial regression functions of the power level in terms of the temperature difference between inlet and outlet of coolant pipes, and the activity levels of four fans and four pumps, which are estimated as features from the sensor measurements. The power level estimator employs a combination of aggregate and complementary fusion steps at three levels to incorporate the multi-modal features in a structure that reflects the secondary cooling system and its partial regression functions. Using the measurements from a test campaign at an operational reactor, we show that this estimator achieves 3.47% or lower root mean square error under 5-fold cross validation. More generally, these results illustrate a progressive reduction in estimation error as additional modalities are appropriately incorporated, and that the fuser outperforms single modality features and their sub-combinations.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1978

Limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

By observing the transit of various cloud features across the Jovian disk, limb-darkening curves were constructed for three regions in the 4.6 to 5.1 mu cm band. Several models currently employed in describing the radiative or dynamical properties of planetary atmospheres are here examined to understand their implications for limb-darkening. The statistical problem of fitting these models to the observed data is reviewed and methods for applying multiple regression analysis are discussed. Analysis of variance techniques are introduced to test the viability of a given physical process as a cause of the observed limb-darkening.

Newman, W. I.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Long-term variations in atomic nitrogen densities

Thermospheric densities of atomic and molecular nitrogen measured from February 1976 through December 1978 by the open source neutral mass spectrometer on the equatorial Atmosphere Explorer E satellite are considered. During this period a significant increase in N densities was observed at the above altitudes of 250 km. It is thought that the increases can be explained by increased production of N from enhanced solar extreme ultraviolet radiation but not by a simple rise in thermospheric temperature. Empirical modeling of N densities at 250 and 375 km by using stepwise regression techniques suggests that the increased solar EUV fluxes in the 800-1000 A range are sufficient to account for the observed rise in N densities at 250 km from June 1976 to June 1977 and are the dominant factor in the density increase of a factor of 5 observed at an altitude of 375 km from June 1976 to late 1978.

Engebretson, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An Integrated Analysis of the Physiological Effects of Space Flight: Executive Summary

A large array of models were applied in a unified manner to solve problems in space flight physiology. Mathematical simulation was used as an alternative way of looking at physiological systems and maximizing the yield from previous space flight experiments. A medical data analysis system was created which consist of an automated data base, a computerized biostatistical and data analysis system, and a set of simulation models of physiological systems. Five basic models were employed: (1) a pulsatile cardiovascular model; (2) a respiratory model; (3) a thermoregulatory model; (4) a circulatory, fluid, and electrolyte balance model; and (5) an erythropoiesis regulatory model. Algorithms were provided to perform routine statistical tests, multivariate analysis, nonlinear regression analysis, and autocorrelation analysis. Special purpose programs were prepared for rank correlation, factor analysis, and the integration of the metabolic balance data.

Leonard, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring Photodeposition of Polymer Films from Diacetylene Monomer Solutions Using In Situ Real-Time Spectroscopic Ellipsometry

Photodeposition of thin polymer (PDAMNA) films from diacetylene monomer (DAMNA) solutions onto gold coated silica substrates with UV light was studied using the technique of in-situ real time spectroscopic ellipsometry. The dielectric function of PDAMNA was determined; and the thickness of the growing PDAMNA films over a 4 hour time interval was determined using a linear regression fit of the experimental data to a homogeneous four phase optical model. It was found that stirring the solution dramatically lowers the rate of film deposition, suggesting that convection can affect the attachment kinetics of the film to the substrate. Lastly, the morphology of the PDAMNA films was examined using non-contact mode atomic force microscopy.

Hui, Du↗
NASA NTRS2002

Describing functional requirements for knowledge sharing communities

Human collaboration in distributed knowledge sharing groups depends on the functionality of information and communication technologies (ICT) to support performance. Since many of these dynamic environments are constrained by time limits, knowledge must be shared efficiently by adapting the level of information detail to the specific situation. This paper focuses on the process of knowledge and context sharing with and without mediation by ICT, as well as issues to be resolved when determining appropriate ICT channels. Both technology-rich and non-technology examples are discussed.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

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