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DOE OSTI2016

The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model

Despite the fact that the southern hemisphere contains a far greater proportion of dark ocean than the northern hemisphere, the total amount of sunlight reflected from the hemispheres is equal. However, the majority of climate models do not adequately represent this equivalence. Here we examine the impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos by various idealised methods in a comprehensive coupled climate model and find significant improvements in what have been considered longstanding and apparently intractable model biases. Monsoon precipitation biases almost vanish over all continental land areas, the penetration of monsoon rainfall across the Sahel and the west African monsoon “jump” become well represented, and indicators of hurricane frequency are significantly improved. The results appear not to be model specific, implying that hemispheric albedo equivalence may provide a fundamental constraint for climate models that must be satisfied if the dynamics driving these processes, in particular the strength of the Hadley cell, are to be adequately represented. Cross-equatorial energy transport is implicated as a crucial component that must be accurately modelled in coupled general circulation models. The results also suggest that the commonly used practice of prescribing sea-surface temperatures in models provides a less accurate represention of precipitation than constraining the hemispheric albedos.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A study of cloud microphysics and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by radar observations and cloud-resolving model simulations

Cloud microphysical properties and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique because of the high terrains, clean atmosphere, and sufficient water vapor. With dual-polarization precipitation radar and cloud radar measurements during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), the simulated microphysics and precipitation by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) microphysics and other microphysical schemes are investigated through a typical plateau rainfall event on 22 July 2014. Results show that the WRF-CAMS simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation, but has limitations in simulating time evolution of precipitation rates. Here, the model-calculated polarimetric radar variables have biases as well, suggesting bias in modeled hydrometeor types. The raindrop sizes in convective region are larger than those in stratiform region indicated by the small intercept of raindrop size distribution in the former. The sensitivity experiments show that precipitation processes are sensitive to the changes of warm rain processes in condensation and nucleated droplet size (but less sensitive to evaporation process). Increasing droplet condensation produces the best area-averaged rain rate during weak convection period compared with the observation, suggesting a considerable bias in thermodynamics in the baseline simulation. Increasing the initial cloud droplet size causes the rain rate reduced by half, an opposite effect to that of increasing droplet condensation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The sensitivity of carbon exchanges in Great Plains grasslands to precipitation variability

Abstract In the Great Plains, grassland carbon dynamics differ across broad gradients of precipitation and temperature, yet finer‐scale variation in these variables may also affect grassland processes. Despite the importance of grasslands, there is little information on how fine‐scale relationships compare between them regionally. We compared grassland C exchanges, energy partitioning and precipitation variability in eight sites in the eastern and western Great Plains using eddy covariance and meteorological data. During our study, both eastern and western grasslands varied between an average net carbon sink and a net source. Eastern grasslands had a moderate vapor pressure deficit (VPD = 0.95 kPa) and high growing season gross primary productivity (GPP = 1010 ± 218 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Western grasslands had a growing season with higher VPD (1.43 kPa) and lower GPP (360 ± 127 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Western grasslands were sensitive to precipitation at daily timescales, whereas eastern grasslands were sensitive at monthly and seasonal timescales. Our results support the expectation that C exchanges in these grasslands differ as a result of varying precipitation regimes. Because eastern grasslands are less influenced by short‐term variability in rainfall than western grasslands, the effects of precipitation change are likely to be more predictable in eastern grasslands because the timescales of variability that must be resolved are relatively longer. We postulate increasing regional heterogeneity in grassland C exchanges in the Great Plains in coming decades.

Petrie, M. D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

“Prophetic vision, vivid imagination”: The 1927 Mississippi River flood

The 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River was the most destructive flood in American history, inundating more than 70,000 km 2 of land, resulting in approximately 500 fatalities and leaving more than 700,000 people homeless. Despite the prominence of the 1927 flood, details on the flood, and the storms that produced the flood, are sparse. We examine the hydrometeorology and hydroclimatology of the 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River through downscaling simulations of the storms that were responsible for catastrophic flooding and through empirical analyses of rainfall and streamflow records. We use Twentieth Century Reanalysis fields as boundary conditions and initial conditions for downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We place the hydrometeorological analyses of the 1927 storms in a hydroclimatological context through analyses of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis fields. Analyses are designed to assess the physical processes that control the upper tail of flooding in the Lower Mississippi River. We compare the 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River to floods in 1937 and 2011 that represent the most extreme flooding in the Lower Mississippi River.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Relationships among climatological vertical moisture structure, column water vapor, and precipitation over the central Amazon in observations and CMIP5 models

Bias and spread in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulated vertical specific humidity (q) structure are examined and related to both precipitation and column water vapor (cwv) near Manaus, Brazil, site of the recent Green Ocean Amazon campaign. Simulated seasonal mean q profiles are typically too dry, especially at low levels and during the local dry season, consistent with previously identified surface hydroclimate biases in the Amazon. Multimodel empirical orthogonal function analysis of the models' monthly climatological q profiles indicates two significant modes of ensemble spread in moisture vertical structure, with the leading mode peaked at low levels and the second mode in the lower free troposphere (LFT). While both modes project onto simulated cwv spread, only the first projects on precipitation, suggesting inconsistent sensitivity of simulated rainfall to LFT moisture. Finally, relative to observations, models with high cwv and low-level moisture errors tend to exhibit high precipitation error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations

Knowledge about long-term changes in climate extremes is vital to better understand multidecadal climate variability and long-term changes and to place today's extreme events in a historical context. While global changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the midtwentieth century are well studied, knowledge about century-scale changes is limited. This paper analyses a range of largely independent observations-based data sets covering 1901–2010 for long-term changes and interannual variability in daily scale temperature and precipitation extremes. We compare across data sets for consistency to ascertain our confidence in century-scale changes in extremes. We find consistent warming trends in temperature extremes globally and in most land areas over the past century. For precipitation extremes we find global tendencies toward more intense rainfall throughout much of the twentieth century; however, local changes are spatially more variable. While global time series of the different data sets agree well after about 1950, they often show different changes during the first half of the twentieth century. In regions with good observational coverage, gridded observations and reanalyses agree well throughout the entire past century. Finally, simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that ocean temperatures and sea ice may explain up to about 50% of interannual variability in the global average of temperature extremes, and about 15% in the global average of moderate precipitation extremes, but local correlations are mostly significant only in low latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions: Sensitivity Across Gray Zone Resolutions

Simulating summer precipitation is a significant challenge for climate models that rely on cumulus parameterizations to represent moist convection processes. Motivated by recent advances in computing that support very high-resolution modeling, this study aims to systematically evaluate the effects of model resolution and convective parameterizations across the gray zone resolutions. Simulations usingthe Weather Research and Forecasting model were conducted at grid spacings of 36 km, 12 km, and 4 km fortwo summers over the conterminous U.S. The convection-permitting simulations at 4 km grid spacing are most skillful in reproducing the observed precipitation spatial distributions and diurnal variability. Notable differences are found between simulations with the traditional Kain-Fritsch (KF) and the scale-aware Grell-Freitas (GF) convection schemes, with the latter more skillful in capturing the nocturnal timing in the Great Plains and North American monsoon regions. The GF scheme also simulates a smoother transition from convective to large-scale precipitation as resolution increases, resulting in reduced sensitivity to model resolution compared to the KF scheme. Nonhydrostatic dynamics has a positive impact on precipitation over complex terrain even at 12 km and 36 km grid spacings. With nudging of the winds toward observations, we show that the conspicuous warm biases in the Southern Great Plains are related to precipitation biases induced by large-scale circulation biases, which are insensitive to model resolution. Overall, notable improvements in simulating summer rainfall and its diurnal variability through convection-permitting modeling and scale-aware parameterizations suggest promising venues for improving climate simulations of water cycle processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Relationships between radiation, clouds, and convection during DYNAMO

In this paper, the relationships between radiation, clouds, and convection on an intraseasonal time scale are examined with data taken during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) field campaign. Specifically, column-net, as well as vertical profiles of radiative heating rates, computed over Gan Island in the central Indian Ocean (IO) are used along with an objective analysis of large-scale fields to examine three MJO events that occurred during the 3 month period (October to December 2011) over this region. Longwave (LW) and shortwave radiative heating rates exhibit tilted structures, reflecting radiative effects associated with the prevalence of shallow cumulus during the dry, suppressed MJO phase followed by increasing deep convection leading into the active phase. As the convection builds going into the MJO active phase, there are increasingly top-heavy anomalous radiative heating rates while the column-net radiative cooling rate Q r progressively decreases. Temporal fluctuations in the cloud radiative forcing, being quite sensitive to changes in high cloudiness, are dominated by LW effects with an intraseasonal variation of ~0.4–0.6 K/d. While both the water vapor and cloud fields are inextricably linked, it appears that the tilted radiative structures are more related to water vapor effects. The intraseasonal variation of column-net radiative heating Q r enhances the convective signal in the mean by ~20% with a minimum in this enhancement ~10 days prior to peak MJO rainfall and maximum ~7 days after. Finally, this suggests that as MJO convective envelope weakens over the central IO, cloud-radiative feedbacks help maintain the mature MJO as it moves eastward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Seasonal variation of shallow-to-deep convection transition and its link to the environmental conditions over the Central Amazon: Shallow-to-Deep Convection Transition

This study aims to characterize the seasonal variation of the shallow-to-deep convection transition and understand how environmental conditions impact the behavior of this transition using data collected from the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign in the Central Amazon (Manaus). The diurnal cycle of the rain/cloud fraction shows that the wet season has more extensive shallow convection before the transition to deep convection with larger fractional coverage and rainfall; deep convection in the transition season is more intense and has higher vertical extension and a stronger updraft. Surface meteorology, atmospheric moisture, instability, and wind shear are contrasted for the shallow/congestus convection (SC) cases and the locally formed shallow-to-deep convection transition (LD) cases. The comparisons suggest that occurrence of the LD is generally promoted under the conditions of high atmospheric moisture and instability but has a weaker dependence on wind shear. The relative importance of these environmental controls also varies in different seasons: The dry and transition seasons require a deeper moist layer from the boundary layer to midtroposphere than the wet season; convective available potential energy (CAPE) is higher during the transition season, but it is a less important factor for shallow-to-deep convection transition than in other seasons; LD only has significantly larger wind shears than SC during the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Effects of explicit convection on global land-atmosphere coupling in the superparameterized CAM

Here, conventional global climate models are prone to producing unrealistic land-atmosphere coupling signals. Cumulus and convection parameterizations are natural culprits but the effect of bypassing them with explicitly resolved convection on global land-atmosphere coupling dynamics has not been explored systematically. We apply a suite of modern land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics to isolate the effect of cloud Superparameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) v3.5, focusing on both the terrestrial segment (i.e., soil moisture and surface turbulent fluxes interaction) and atmospheric segment (i.e., surface turbulent fluxes and precipitation interaction) in the water pathway of the landatmosphere feedback loop. At daily timescales, SPCAM produces stronger uncoupled terrestrial signals (negative sign) over tropical rainforests in wet seasons, reduces the terrestrial coupling strength in the Central Great Plain in American, and reverses the coupling sign (from negative to positive) over India in the boreal summer season—all favorable improvements relative to reanalysis-forced land modeling. Analysis of the triggering feedback strength (TFS) and amplification feedback strength (AFS) shows that SPCAM favorably reproduces the observed geographic patterns of these indices over North America, with the probability of afternoon precipitation enhanced by high evaporative fraction along the eastern United States and Mexico, while conventional CAM does not capture this signal. We introduce a new diagnostic called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Feedback Strength (PFS), which reveals that SPCAM exhibits a tight connection between the responses of the lifting condensation level, the PBL height, and the rainfall triggering to surface turbulent fluxes; a triggering disconnect is found in CAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing convective cold pools

Abstract Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud‐resolving model with a coupled land‐surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the density potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near‐surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cloud and circulation feedbacks in a near‐global aquaplanet cloud‐resolving model

Abstract A near‐global aquaplanet cloud‐resolving model (NGAqua) with fixed meridionally varying sea‐surface temperature (SST) is used to investigate cloud feedbacks due to three climate perturbations: a uniform 4 K SST increase, a quadrupled‐CO 2 concentration, and both combined. NGAqua has a horizontal resolution of 4 km with no cumulus parameterization. Its domain is a zonally periodic 20,480 km‐long tropical channel, spanning 46°S–N. It produces plausible mean distributions of clouds, rainfall, and winds. After spin‐up, 80 days are analyzed for the control and increased‐SST simulations, and 40 days for those with quadrupled CO 2 . The Intertropical Convergence Zone width and tropical cloud cover are not strongly affected by SST warming or CO 2 increase, except for the expected upward shift in high clouds with warming, but both perturbations weaken the Hadley circulation. Increased SST induces a statistically significant increase in subtropical low cloud fraction and in‐cloud liquid water content but decreases midlatitude cloud, yielding slightly positive domain‐mean shortwave cloud feedbacks. CO 2 quadrupling causes a slight shallowing and a statistically insignificant reduction of subtropical low cloud fraction. Warming‐induced low cloud changes are strongly correlated with changes in estimated inversion strength, which increases modestly in the subtropics but decreases in the midlatitudes. Enhanced clear‐sky boundary layer radiative cooling in the warmer climate accompanies the robust subtropical low cloud increase. The probability distribution of column relative humidity across the tropics and subtropics is compared between the control and increased‐SST simulations. It shows no evidence of bimodality or increased convective aggregation in a warmer climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Partitioning evapotranspiration using long‐term carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes

Abstract The separate components of evapotranspiration (ET) elucidate the pathways and time scales over which water is returned to the atmosphere, but ecosystem‐scale measurements of transpiration ( T ) and evaporation ( E ) remain elusive. We propose a novel determination of E and T using multiyear eddy covariance estimates of ET and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP). The method is applicable at water‐limited sites over time periods during which a linear regression between GEP (abscissa) and ET (ordinate) yields a positive ET axis intercept, an estimate of E . At four summer‐rainfall semiarid sites, T /ET increases to a peak coincident with maximum GEP and remains elevated as the growing season progresses, consistent with previous, direct measurements. The seasonal course of T /ET is related to increasing leaf area index and declining frequency of rainy days—an index of the wet surface conditions that promote E —suggesting both surface and climatic controls on ET partitioning.

Scott, Russell L.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

A constrained model intercomparison study of a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes, to understand specific processes that lead to the large spread of simulated cloud and precipitation at cloud-resolving scales, with a focus of this paper on convective cores. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area than observed, but a much narrower stratiform area, with most bulk schemes overpredicting radar reflectivity. The magnitudes of the virtual potential temperature drop, pressure rise, and the peak wind speed associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations also overestimate the vertical velocity and Ze in convective cores as compared with observational retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across the eight schemes even in this strongly dynamically-driven system. The spread of updraft velocity is attributed to the combined effects of the low-level perturbation pressure gradient determined by cold pool intensity and buoyancy that is not necessarily well correlated to differences in latent heating among the simulations. Variability of updraft velocity between schemes is also related to differences in ice-related parameterizations, whereas precipitation variability increases in no-ice simulations because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.

Fan, Jiwen↗
DOE OSTI2017

Daily-scale planetary wave patterns and the modulation of cold season weather in the northern extratropics

Here, tropospheric planetary waves, often linked to asymmetries in lower boundary forcing,significantly modulate atmospheric blocking and storm track structures that are, in turn, linked to extremesurface weather events. Day-to-day variability in the planetary scale circulation, taken as wave numbers 1 to 5in the daily 500 hPa geopotential heights, and the associated impact on storm tracks and regional weather arestudied for the period 1950–2005. Six boreal cold-season distinct planetary wave patterns are identified viahierarchical cluster analysis. The first, second, and sixth patterns feature a prominent zonal wave number 1structure, while the fourth and fifth patterns resemble the negative and positive phases of northern annularmode, respectively. The second pattern represents an amplification of the climatological mean wavestructure, while the third pattern resembles the zonal wave number 3 pattern. A multitaper spectral analysisof the daily projection indices indicates that the planetary wave patterns are primarily intraseasonal innature. The first (sixth) pattern combines the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific-North Americanteleconnection pattern and negative (positive) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, inducing poleward(equatorward) shifts in the Pacific storm track and a weakened (strengthened) Atlantic storm track. Incontrast, the fourth (fifth) pattern results in a simultaneous equatorward (poleward) displacement of bothstorm tracks. Extreme cold waves over the continental United States (U.S.) are favored during occurrences ofthe fourth and sixth patterns. During episodes of the first pattern, increased rainfall prevails over much ofthe U.S., while precipitation anomalies induced by the other patterns are more regional in nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

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