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DOE OSTI2019

Development of a Stochastic Infiltration Model for PPA Implementation - 19293

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes and properties such as infiltration, water content, groundwater flow rate, streamflow, and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level infiltration model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model for the West Valley Site in western New York. Additionally, this paper demonstrates a method for obtaining distributions of the long-term average hydrologic processes and properties for a PA model. For this PPA, an infiltration model was developed using HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) to evaluate the rates of infiltration, percolation, and drainage through several site soil and proposed decommissioning cover systems, as well as the volumetric water contents of each of the unsaturated layers in a modeled soil column. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. For these models, distributions of climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation were scaled to 1000-year averages and were used to force steady-state models that predict 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents. For the HELP model, distributions were developed for the physical and hydrologic properties of each material in a given soil column or cover system, and these properties were allowed to vary stochastically along with climatic inputs. The HELP model was run 5000 times for each of seven different soil and cover systems representing various existing and proposed conditions (i.e. native soil, backfill, existing covers, and a proposed close-in-place cover). The results of the HELP model provide ranges of 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents through and within the various layers of each of the different soil and cover conditions. The model outcomes also demonstrate the effectiveness of a proposed close-in-place cover, which essentially eliminates infiltration during its operational lifetime. Following model simulation, a sensitivity analysis was performed to establish the relative importance of each stochastic input with respect to each output. The outcomes of the model simulations and the sensitivity analysis were implemented into a system-level GoldSim model via a novel sensitivity-informed nearest neighbor approach. These infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents are used to parameterize mixing cells within the GoldSim Contaminant Transport module, which is the primary system-level model used in the PPA. The infiltration rates are also used as boundary conditions for a stochastic groundwater flow model that is also utilized in the PPA, but not discussed in this paper. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Comparison of GoldSim, RESRAD-Onsite, and NORMALYSA Modeling Tools at Radioactive Waste Sites - 19480

Radioactive waste disposal and associated decision making is a challenging problem around the world. A strong performance assessment model plays a crucial role in making good management and remediation decisions and in optimizing the performance of a site. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) MODARIA II Working Group 1 (WG1) is comparing the performance of various modeling platforms used at Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM) and legacy waste sites to support risk-informed decision making. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) has developed probabilistic performance assessment models using the GoldSim system modeling software at a variety of radioactive waste sites. This paper presents a comparison between GoldSim and two other tools used to evaluate radiation exposure and their associated risks: the NORM And Legacy Site Assessment (NORMALYSA) tool used to assess risk at the Zapadnoe mill tailings site, and the residual radioactivity (RESRAD-Onsite) computer program used to calculate Authorized Limits at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supported development of NORMALYSA based off of Ecolego 6.0, in which the user connects several universal modules, representing various environmental transport and exposure pathways, and enters in site-specific data. Further work with NORMALYSA has continued under the MODARIA II WG 1. A radionuclide transport and dose calculation model of the Zapadnoe uranium mill tailings site at the Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant in the Ukraine has been configured by MODARIA II WG1 to test the capabilities of NORMALYSA. Under this test case, contaminant transport and effective dose calculations were performed for two exposure scenarios. The onsite worker is exposed via external ground irradiation and radon and radioactive dust inhalation. The offsite resident defines a residence established 300 years after institutional control has ended, 800 meters downstream from the site with exposure pathways including: ingestion of garden vegetables irrigated by contaminated ground water, ingestion of fish from the Konoplyanka River and agricultural activities in the contaminated garden. GoldSim modeling software is a dynamic probabilistic modeling platform that evaluates uncertainty in a robust and transparent manner. Although GoldSim provides contaminant and radionuclide transport modules to facilitate integrated modeling of radionuclide migration in the environment, these features are not embedded in an existing modeling framework, except as created by the user. Neptune developed a GoldSim model for the two exposure scenarios of the Zapadnoe test case. Neptune's Generic PA Model was used as a starting point for the Zapadnoe site. Input parameters for the GoldSim model include site-specific parameters from the MODARIA Working Group as well as parameters from the Generic PA Model and other PA models created by Neptune. For the other comparison, Version 7.0 of RESRAD-Onsite, developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was used to calculate Authorized Limits for LANL. Authorized Limits are concentrations of radionuclides in soil that support the evaluation process to clear land for release under different uses. The RESRAD-Onsite computer code was used to calculate Authorized Limits because this program was specifically designed to derive radionuclide soil guidelines corresponding to a specific dose criterion. The scope of the RESRAD dose or risk evaluation is constrained to the transport and exposure pathways that have been included in the computer code. To assist in illustrating the capability of GoldSim modeling software, a GoldSim model was created to replicate the calculation of LANL's Authorized Limits for soil. The main exposure pathways in this model are inhalation of dust and gas, plant ingestion, soil ingestion, and external ground irradiation. All of the processes and outputs of RESRAD-Onsite and NORMALYSA can be created in a GoldSim model, but the value of GoldSim lies in its flexibility for application to any of a wide variety of environmental modeling problems. GoldSim allows development of site-specific inventory, transport mechanisms and risk assessment scenarios. If all potentially complete release, transport, and exposure pathways are addressed in an existing dose and risk assessment computer code, and if the code's capabilities fulfill the project modeling objectives, then expending resources to create a GoldSim model may not be necessary. Site optimization and good decision making about site management are often best when supported with the flexibility of GoldSim as a modeling tool. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probability of Pinching Failure in PWR SNF after Long-Term Storage

A probabilistic assessment was performed on pinching failure of PWR SNF rod cladding under accidental SNF cask transport conditions. a set of 3,000 rod pinching scenarios was analyzed, with different geometrical, material, and loading parameters, using a Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The investigated accidents include train derailments leading to cask collisions or cask drops. Pinching failure was related to cladding offset strain, defined as the plastic deformation interval in radial cladding direction normalized with respect to the outer cladding diameter. Finite element (FE) models were used to compute SNF rod deformations and the offset strain demand OSD in each of the assessed pinching scenarios. The numerical models account for the contribution of the degraded fuel pellets to rod pinching stiffness. The offset strain capacity OSC was computed using regression and interpolation models based on ring compression (RCT) test results, and account for hydride-related effects on cladding ductility. The results show a low probability of pinching failure. Hydride-related cladding embrittlement affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods after long-term dry storage of up to 300 years. Radial hydride patterns or large amounts of circumferentially oriented hydrides reduce the cladding ductile deformation capability when pinched at low material temperatures. The probability of hydride-related pinching failure of PWR cladding is estimated after long-term dry storage to address: How do PWR SNF rod conditions like hydrogen content, vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress σ{sub θ}, and cladding material temperature affect cladding ductility? Is hydride-related cladding embrittlement a material degradation mechanism that affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? What are the controlling parameters for deformation demands in PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? Is the pinching load amplitude an important parameter that controls the probability of pinching failure? How do parameters like pellet-cladding gap or fuel pellet degradation affect the pinching loading capacity of PWR SNF rods? Statistical modelling of PWR SNF rod conditions in U.S. inventory: A pseudo rod database was generated based on EIA database. Analysis of train accident scenarios: a probability density function (pdf) of a pinching load distribution P{sub 9m} of a 9-m cask drop is linearly scaled to generate a more representative: distribution P{sub AS}. The new distribution considers train collision velocities, cask drops for on- and off-bridge accidents, and cask impact orientation. LHS generates 3,000 rod pinching scenarios based on nine independent geometrical, material, and loading parameters. Probabilistic FE Analysis: The LHS realizations are used to generate 3,000 FE models. The FE analysis is conducted for P{sub 9m}, and P{sub AS}. The workflow is automatized. The OSC is computed with regression and interpolation models, as a function of the hydrogen content C{sub H}, vacuum drying peak σ{sub θ}, and SNF temperature T{sub FR}: The regression data was obtained in RCTs on PWR cladding. The OSD is derived from the cladding deformations in the FE models. Cladding failure was identified via a comparison of OSC and OSD. A 300 and a 30 years-of-dry-storage duration is investigated: The dry-storage period affects the expected SNF temperature and consequently, the OSC and the OSD. The material temperature LHS population is adapted to account for a SNF temperature variation. The probability of hydride-related, ductile cladding failure during a severe transportation accident is not significantly affected by the pinching load amplitude: The probability is slightly reduced from a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1667% for P{sub 9m}, to a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1333% for P{sub AS}, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. Further, the SNF dry-storage duration does not significantly affect the probability of ductile pinching failure. Based on available train accidents data, the pinching failure probability for a 5,000 km long transportation route ranges from less than 1.62 E-7 to a value of 6.47 E-7, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. The pinching load amplitude is not a controlling parameter for the probability of ductile cladding pinching failure, and does not control the cladding deformations once pellet-cladding contact is established, The pellet-cladding gap width, however, plays a key role. Fuel pellet degradation only affects the deformation capacity, if the pellet stiffness is significantly reduced (more than 90%). Only highly embrittled cladding is likely to fail. The deformation demands on the cladding under pinching loading are small.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Preliminary Radiological Risk Assessment Model for Disposition of Remote-Handled Transuranic Wastes at Los Alamos National Laboratory Area G - 20116

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) operates a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal site at Material Disposal Area G, in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. Area G has been the primary LLW disposal site for Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) since the 1960's. In addition to LLW, Area G is host to a variety of other wastes, the disposition of which must be determined before closure of the site. A probabilistic Radiological Risk Assessment (RRA) for Area G is used in order to support decision making regarding some wastes that are not addressed in the extant Area G Performance Assessment (PA) and Composite Analysis (CA). Between 1979 and 1987, 33 special shafts were augered into the Bandelier Tuff at Area G. This volcanic tuff is present across Pajarito Plateau on the eastern slopes of the Jemez Mountains, and varies widely in its consistency, from weakly indurated non-welded layers to welded layers that uphold the mesa cliffs of the Plateau. These mesas are home to LANL, Area G, and the townsites of Los Alamos and White Rock, with residences about 1400 m from Area G. The 33 Shafts were lined with steel casing, and contain remote-handled (RH) transuranic wastes (TRU) resulting from experiments and analysis performed in special glove boxes at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) facility at LANL. Some of these wastes originated as used nuclear fuel. The purpose of the Area G RRA is to evaluate the potential future risk to humans and the environment from the RH TRU in the 33 Shafts in the context of the risk associated with the surrounding wastes at Area G. The analysis is responsive to expectations outlined in DOE Order 458.1, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment, and is informed by the Manual and Guidance accompanying DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. Because the waste meets the definition of TRU, the regulatory context necessarily takes into consideration the regulation governing the disposal of TRU from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 40 CFR 191, Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes. Given the broader regulatory context for the RRA, the analysis is subject to different assumptions from those made in the existing DOE O 435.1 PA and CA, such as allowing for future occupation of the site. The analysis begins with a comprehensive evaluation of features, events, processes, and exposure scenarios (FEPS) for Area G and the wastes it contains. These FEPSs are screened to eliminate from further consideration those of extremely low probability and/or consequence, and a conceptual site model (CSM) is subsequently developed. The scope and structure of the Area G RRA Model is informed by this CSM, and the Area G RRA Model is developed using the GoldSim systems analysis modeling platform. This paper presents the initial version of a defensible, transparent, and reasonably realistic model, which is based on the state of knowledge of the wastes, the site, and the FEPSs that govern contaminant transport from wastes into the environment and subsequent exposures to humans and other biota. Probabilistic model input distributions represent uncertainties inherent in the real and modeled systems. The results of the Area G RRA Model inform decisions regarding the disposition of the RH TRU in the 33 Shafts. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Transitions From Stochastic to Point Kinetics Models In Fissile Solutions

Fissile solutions form an integral part of the fuel cycle, being used to store and process both fresh fuel and waste. Fissile solutions are also found within Aqueous Homogeneous Reactors (AHRs) including research reactors such as CRAC and SILENE and also potential future systems which could be used for the production of medical isotopes. In the case of fissile solutions in the fuel cycle, avoiding criticality is a priority but accidents have occurred in which a significant number of fissions occurred. In the case of AHRs, a sustained neutron population and fission rate is desired. In both cases the ability to simulate transients where changes in reactivity cause the neutron population to increase are important. A popular method for the simulation of such transients is the point kinetic method which allows the capture of the major features of a transient at a fraction of the computational runtime and code complexity of more comprehensive modelling technologies. A limitation of the point kinetics method and other mainstream methods of predicting neutron behaviour is that they assume the neutron population is large enough that the mean behaviour will be observed. When the neutron population is low, however, the deviation around the mean behaviour is expected to be relatively large as there is an aleatoric uncertainty arising from the uncertain fate of individual neutrons. Such limitations are of particular importance when the reactivity of a system is rapidly increasing while the neutron population is low, which is often true in accident scenarios involving fissile solutions. This provides the motivation for the coupling of point kinetics and a probabilistic models of fissile solutions. This summary aims to explore some of the behaviours resulting from a low neutron population and rising reactivity using a coupled probabilistic and point kinetics model of a fissile solution. As the effects of a low neutron population are the primary concern of this summary, the point kinetics and thermal hydraulic models used will be relatively simple but these models should be sufficient to capture the most important behaviours of the system in the first minute or so of a transient. This work is an extension of the work found in [1]. In that work the methodology was applied to fast pulses produced by systems such as Godiva and its results were found to compare favourably to experimental and analytical results, such as the burst wait time, in [2]. This work focuses on the application of this methodology to a fissile solution but the method could be applied to a number of criticality safety or reactor operation scenarios through suitable modification of the point kinetics model and would produce a more accurate prediction of the peak power obtained when a system first becomes critical compared to the use of a standard point kinetics model. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Statistical Testing Approach for Quantifying Software Reliability; Application to an Example System

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRA's of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and, (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. Under NRC's sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware , development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure , and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods . Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability. It is widely recognized that software failures are due to the triggering of pre-existing defects by the software's operational environment. Software defects can arise from errors made in user requirements or coding errors introduced during the developmental process. The software's operational environment includes factors such as the time history of digital system inputs, communication interfaces, the internal state of the digital system, and external conditions. Thus, software reliability is a function of both the number of pre-existing defects and the presence of a triggering condition caused by the manner in which the software is used. In this paper, we describe a statistical software-testing approach for quantifying software reliability and applied it to the loop-operating control system (LOCS) of an experimental loop of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The work involved collaboration between BNL and INL. The objectives of the study include: (1) Development of a statistical testing approach for estimating software failure probability on demand, the results of which are suitable for including in a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA); and, (2) Application of the approach to the LOCS to estimate its failure probability, and obtain insights into the feasibility, practicality, and usefulness of the estimation in models of digital systems for inclusion in nuclear power plants' PRAs. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Severe Accident Analysis Engine Using Approximate Reasoning

In hypothetical severe accident scenarios, nuclear power plant safety is challenged by core degradation and release of fission products. To aid the plant operator and technical support center staff, research has been performed to develop understanding of severe accident phenomenology, assessing their risk and devise measures to mitigate accident consequences (Sehgal, 2011). Nuclear power plant accidents involve highly complex physical and chemical interactions, a large number of safety related systems, and emergency operating procedures (EOP) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Large number of factors with uncertainty and stress can overwhelm the operators. The overall objective of the present research is to develop a methodology and tools that an operator can use to predict severe accident progression and make effective decisions to arrest and manage the accident under large uncertainties. Towards this goal, this study examines a novel approach that brings to bear a combined use of techniques in artificial intelligence (Russel and Norvig, 2010), including Bayesian Network (BN), Answer Set Programming (ASP) and Fuzzy Inference (FI) to achieve faster-than-real-time, yet sufficiently accurate analysis of severe accident progression. Bayesian network (BN) is a type of probabilistic graphical models that can be used to represent knowledge and conditional dependencies about an uncertain realm. It is useful for capturing the causal relationships in a complex system. It also allows prediction via Bayesian inference (Kelly and Smith, 2012). It is composed of nodes and edges, which express random variables and probabilistic relationships between the nodes, respectively. This relationship, given by conditional probability is calculated using stochastic methods. The BN is used in several systems for analysis and management of accident risk; e.g. (Knochenhauer and Frid, 2010). In those systems, the nodes or so-called 'effective factors' are presumably known within the network by system descriptions in SAMGs. There are two steps to configure the BN, namely (i) identifying compositions within the network and (ii) defining conditional dependency between nodes. The first step is performed following the spirit of ASP (Baral, 2003) using Prolog (Wielemaker, 2005). Knowledge representation is used to build databases required for processing by ASP. Knowledge representation is defined as the expression of knowledge in a way that is understandable to both human and computers. Originally knowledge indicates data, information and facts. To focus, knowledge should be formed to achieve a goal. In a severe accident, key physics and safety related components status are defined according to a failure mode. The conditional dependencies between nodes are generated by approximate reasoning using Fuzzy inference (Zadeh, 1995). Fuzzy logic is a multiple-valued logic to treat ambiguous features such as linguistic description. It indicates possibility, which is distinguished from probability. Fuzzy set consists of linguistic variables according to the fixed rule. In other words, even uncertain states could be expressed as not binary logic, but as many-value logic by rule-based technology. Fuzzy control system is comprised of Fuzzy inference engine that is performed based on the 'If-Then Rule'. The 'If-Then Rule' is of the following form. If Y1 is B11 and Y2 is B12 then Z is C1. If Y1 is B21 and Y2 is B22 then Z is C2. Y1 and Y2 are inputs, which indicate conditional variables. Z indicates decision-making and both B and C are linguistic variables. With this rule-based technique, the approximate reasoning can be realized by Fuzzy inference. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

PWR Station Blackout and External Events Analysis for LWRS/RISMC Project

In the framework of the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability/ Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS/RISMC) project, methods, data and tools are being developed with the ultimate scope of improving the safety and operation of the current US nuclear fleet. A set of Industrial Applications (IA) concerning the most relevant safety issues is defined for applying and testing the developed tool kits. The ultimate scope of IA no. 2 is a realistic simulation of natural external hazards that impose threat to a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). This scope requires the development of a methodology and of a qualified set of tools able to perform advanced risk-informed safety analysis. In particular the methodology should be able to combine results from seismic, flooding and thermal-hydraulic (TH) deterministic calculations with dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A so-called Risk Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach is being used to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation and simulation) event scenarios and consequences by linking probabilistic simulations to external events physics. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Systems Safety Evaluation Based on System Thinking

Every engineer knows well and always considers about 'The local optimization makes the entire worst', and therefore well balanced design is required. Even the total safety has been assured by the safety design based on defense in depth concept, operational problem would occur by the chain of the fallacy of the defense in depth, then safety culture degradation, and finely organizational accident eventually happened. Probabilistic approach is required to the problem. We should answer to the question 'Safety Goal: How safe is safe enough?' for public acceptance. To respond to the operational problem and safety goal question, PRA, Probabilistic Risk Analysis is required. Further, Risk Communication should include comparison and selection among technical systems by risk and benefit analysis. Therefore, systems safety consideration is important based on systems thinking with considering following characteristics: - Goal-oriented- Optimization, Alternative proposals; - Global perspective- Bird's Eye; - Hierarchy- Isomorphism; - Life Cycle: Plan-Design-Construction-Use-Disposal; - Learning and Evolution. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

High Performance-Multidisciplinary Simulation for Regional Scale Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessments

Moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes represent a significant risk around the world and a major issue across the Department of Energy (DOE) mission interests, ranging from DOE's one-of-a-kind mission critical facilities to national energy systems (nuclear power plants, electric/gas distribution systems, and renewable energy production facilities). As a result, for the DOE there is a strong motivation in promoting and developing a risk-informed and performance-based approach for both the assessment of existing facilities and the design of new structures. DOE National Labs have historically made multidisciplinary contributions to the solution of challenging seismic hazard and risk problems and have been at the forefront for the development of design standards for major facilities. The current approach for estimating the ground motion hazard for critical facilities is based upon a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), whereby measured ground motion data are collected and homogenized into a probabilistic framework to estimate the hazard for future events. However, recent studies have highlighted the site-specific nature of earthquakes and shown the limitations of a purely empirical approach. Moreover, the design of infrastructure systems has been moving toward a performance-based approach, in which specific performance goals are specified at different levels of excitation and for different limit states. Such an approach requires the availability of robust and reliable computational tools for the nonlinear dynamic analysis of complex structural systems. Ongoing research at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) aims at developing an advanced simulation environment at the exascale for a coupled assessment of earthquake hazard (ground motions) and earthquake risk (structural demands)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of the likelihood of post-closure criticality in a geological disposal facility - 14349

Radioactive Waste Management (RWM) is responsible for implementing geological disposal of the UK's higher activity radioactive wastes. These wastes include significant quantities of fissile nuclides and, therefore, demonstration of the criticality safety of the wastes under disposal conditions forms an important component of RWM's disposal system safety case. At the time of disposal, controls will ensure that all waste packages are sub-critical, and the containment provided by the engineered barrier system of a geological disposal facility (GDF) will ensure that criticality is prevented for some time after disposal. However, as waste packages begin to degrade, fissile and other materials may be mobilised, which could affect the potential for criticality. Therefore, the possibility for the evolution of conditions in a GDF to result in criticality requires assessment. RWM established the 'Likelihood of Criticality' research project to develop qualitative and quantitative arguments to demonstrate that criticality after closure of a GDF is unlikely. The project included consideration of the criticality safety of disposal concepts for intermediate and high level waste, spent fuel, separated plutonium and highly-enriched uranium in different generic geological settings. The results are underpinned by the construction of post-closure criticality scenarios that have been evaluated using high-level judgments about scenario credibility as well as modelling of evolving conditions in a GDF. In the latter case, a probabilistic modelling approach has been undertaken to address uncertainty in the calculation of concentrations and masses of fissile material that could occur at potential accumulation sites. The potential for criticality has been judged based on comparisons of the calculated fissile masses with minimum values required for criticality at different locations in the barrier system. This paper explains the novel approach taken to evaluating the likelihood of criticality in a GDF based on the probabilistic modelling of waste package evolution and plutonium and uranium migration. The role of this research in RWM's work to demonstrate the criticality safety of a GDF in the UK is presented in a companion paper, which also draws on the results of a parallel research project that demonstrates that, even if a criticality were to occur, then its consequences would be insignificant to GDF performance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

A variance-based decomposition and global sensitivity index method for uncertainty quantification: Application to retrieved ice cloud properties

This study develops a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for cloud microphysical property retrievals using variance-based decomposition and global sensitivity index. In this UQ framework, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ground-based observations, which are the inputs for the cloud retrieval studied here. The principal components (PCs) in the EOF expansion are parameterized as random input variables, and hence, the input dimension is greatly reduced (up to a factor of 50), allowing large ensemble of random samplings. The EOF expansion improves the accuracy of the uncertainty estimation by taking into account the cross correlations in the input data profiles. Here, this method enables a probabilistic representation of a retrieval process by adding normally distributed perturbations into PCs of sample means of input data profiles within a time window. Therefore, it effectively facilitates objective validation of climate models against cloud retrievals under a probabilistic framework for rigorous statistical inferences. Moreover, the variance-based global sensitivity index analysis, part of this method, attributes the output uncertainties to each individual source, thus providing directions for improving retrieval algorithms and observation strategies. For demonstration, we apply this method to quantify the uncertainties of the ARM program's baseline cloud retrieval algorithm for an ice cloud case observed at the Southern Great Plains site on 9 March 2000.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [ Parnell et al ., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (δ 15 N and δ 18 O) but all methods tested are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗
DOE OSTI2016

Capacity value assessments of wind power

This article describes some of the recent research into the capacity value of wind power. With the worldwide increase in wind power during the past several years, there is increasing interest and significance regarding its capacity value because this has a direct influence on the amount of other (nonwind) capacity that is needed. We build on previous reviews from IEEE and IEA W ind T ask 25 a and examine recent work that evaluates the impact of multiple‐year data sets and the impact of interconnected systems on resource adequacy. We also provide examples that explore the use of alternative reliability metrics for wind capacity value calculations. We show how multiple‐year data sets significantly increase the robustness of results compared to single‐year assessments. Assumptions regarding the transmission interconnections play a significant role. To date, results regarding which reliability metric to use for probabilistic capacity valuation show little sensitivity to the metric. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e226. doi: 10.1002/wene.226 This article is categorized under: Wind Power > Economics and Policy Wind Power > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure > Economics and Policy

Milligan, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

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