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At least 1,801 records · Page 100

Classification of Clouds and Deep Convection from GEOS-5 Using Satellite Observations

With the increased resolution of global atmospheric models and the push toward global cloud resolving models, the resemblance of model output to satellite observations has become strikingly similar. As we progress with our adaptation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) as a high resolution cloud system resolving model, evaluation of cloud properties and deep convection require in-depth analysis beyond a visual comparison. Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) provides a sufficient comparison with infrared (IR) satellite imagery to isolate areas of deep convection. We have adopted a binning technique to generate a series of histograms for OLR which classify the presence and fraction of clear sky versus deep convection in the tropics that can be compared with a similar analyses of IR imagery from composite Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) observations. We will present initial results that have been used to evaluate the amount of deep convective parameterization required within the model as we move toward cloud system resolving resolutions of 10- to 1-km globally.

Putman, William↗

A computational fluid dynamics modeling study of guide walls for downstream fish passage

A partial-depth, impermeable guidance structure (or guide wall) for downstream fish passage is typically constructed as a series of panels attached to a floating boom and anchored across a water body (e.g. river channel, reservoir, or power canal). The downstream terminus of the wall is generally located nearby to a fish bypass structure. If guidance is successful, the fish will avoid entrainment in a dangerous intake structure (i.e. turbine intakes) while passing from the headpond to the tailwater of a hydroelectric facility through a safer passage route (i.e. the bypass). The goal of this study is to determine the combination of guide wall design parameters that will most likely increase the chance of surface-oriented fish being successfully guided to the bypass. To evaluate the flow field immediately upstream of a guide wall, a parameterized computational fluid dynamics model of an idealized power canal was constructed in © ANSYS Fluent v 14.5 (ANSYS Inc., 2012). The design parameters investigated were the angle and depth of the guide wall and the average approach velocity in the power canal. Results call attention to the importance of the downward to sweeping flow ratio and demonstrate how a change in guide wall depth and angle can affect this important hydraulic cue to out-migrating fish. The key findings indicate that a guide wall set at a small angle (15° is the minimum in this study) and deep enough such that sweeping flow dominant conditions prevail within the expected vertical distribution of fish approaching the structure will produce hydraulic conditions that are more likely to result in effective passage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

numerical weather forecasting↗

IDAES GTEP 0.1 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning (GTEP) package provides a Pyomo-based implementation of a modular, flexible, Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) formulation for power infrastructure planning problems. This package is designed with the following goals in mind: - Abstract GTEP modeling away from any particular case study or fixed modeling assumptions (e.g., technologies, temporal resolution, spatial resolution, policy implications, etc.) - Admit flexible decision sets and heterogeneous parameterization - Allow high-level modeling options to be understood easily, chosen modularly, and changed rapidly

AS↗

The effects of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the climate sensitivity to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. The model is based on a two-level quasi-geostrophic zonally averaged annual mean model. One of the evaporation parameterizations tested is a nonlinear formulation with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface. The other is the linear formulation with the Bowen ratio essentially determined by the prescribed linear coefficient.

Chou, S. H.↗

Parameterization of Mixed Layer and Deep-Ocean Mesoscales Including Nonlinearity

In 2011, Chelton et al. carried out a comprehensive census of mesoscales using altimetry data and reached the following conclusions: "essentially all of the observed mesoscale features are nonlinear" and "mesoscales do not move with the mean velocity but with their own drift velocity," which is "the most germane of all the nonlinear metrics." Accounting for these results in a mesoscale parameterization presents conceptual and practical challenges since linear analysis is no longer usable and one needs a model of nonlinearity. A mesoscale parameterization is presented that has the following features: 1) it is based on the solutions of the nonlinear mesoscale dynamical equations, 2) it describes arbitrary tracers, 3) it includes adiabatic (A) and diabatic (D) regimes, 4) the eddy-induced velocity is the sum of a Gent and McWilliams (GM) term plus a new term representing the difference between drift and mean velocities, 5) the new term lowers the transfer of mean potential energy to mesoscales, 6) the isopycnal slopes are not as flat as in the GM case, 7) deep-ocean stratification is enhanced compared to previous parameterizations where being more weakly stratified allowed a large heat uptake that is not observed, 8) the strength of the Deacon cell is reduced. The numerical results are from a stand-alone ocean code with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment I (CORE-I) normal-year forcing.

Baroclinic flows; Mesoscale processes; Mixing; Sub↗

Analysis of Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Scale Dependence of Convective Momentum Transport

Abstract We use 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of two mesoscale convective systems at midlatitudes and a simple statistical ensemble method to diagnose the scale dependency of convective momentum transport (CMT) and CMT-related properties and evaluate a parameterization scheme for the convection-induced pressure gradient (CIPG) developed by Gregory et al. Gregory et al. relate CIPG to a constant coefficient multiplied by mass flux and vertical mean wind shear. CRM results show that mass fluxes and CMT exhibit strong scale dependency in temporal evolution and vertical structure. The upgradient–downgradient CMT characteristics for updrafts are generally similar between small and large grid spacings, which is consistent with previous understanding, but they can be different for downdrafts across wide-ranging grid spacings. For the small to medium grid spacings (4–64 km), Gregory et al. reproduce some aspects of CIPG scale dependency except for underestimating the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases. However, for large grid spacings (128–512 km), Gregory et al. might even less adequately parameterize CIPG because it omits the contribution from either the nonlinear-shear or the buoyancy forcings. Further diagnosis of CRM results suggests that inclusion of nonlinear-shear forcing in Gregory et al. is needed for the large grid spacings. For the small to median grid spacings, a modified Gregory et al. with the three-updraft approach help better capture the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases compared to the single updraft approach. Further, the optimal coefficients used in Gregory et al. seem insensitive to grid spacings, but they might be different for updrafts and downdrafts, for different MCS types, and for zonal and meridional components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emulating aerosol optics with randomly generated neural networks

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have a substantial impact on climate and remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. Accurate representation of their direct radiative effects is a crucial component of modern climate models. However, direct computation of the radiative properties of aerosol populations is far too computationally expensive to perform in a climate model, so optical properties are typically approximated using a parameterization. This work develops artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of replacing the current aerosol optics parameterization used in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A large training dataset is generated by using Mie code to directly compute the optical properties of a range of atmospheric aerosol populations given a large variety of particle sizes, wavelengths, and refractive indices. Optimal neural architectures for shortwave and longwave bands are identified by evaluating ANNs with randomly generated wirings. Randomly generated deep ANNs are able to outperform conventional multilayer-perceptron-style architectures with comparable parameter counts. Finally, the ANN-based parameterization produces significantly more accurate bulk aerosol optical properties than the current parameterization when compared with direct Mie calculations using mean absolute error. The success of this approach makes possible the future inclusion of much more sophisticated representations of aerosol optics in climate models that cannot be captured by extension of the existing parameterization scheme and also demonstrates the potential of random-wiring-based neural architecture search in future applications in the Earth sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Decentralized Approach for Modeling Organized Convection Based on Thermal Populations on Microgrids

Abstract In this study, a spectral model for convective transport is coupled to a thermal population model on a two‐dimensional horizontal “microgrid,” covering the typical gridbox size of general circulation models. The goal is to explore new ways of representing impacts of spatial organization in cumulus cloud fields. The thermals are considered the smallest building block of convection, with thermal life cycle and movement represented through binomial functions. Thermals interact through two simple rules, reflecting pulsating growth and environmental deformation. Long‐lived thermal clusters thus form on the microgrid, exhibiting scale growth and spacing that represent simple forms of spatial organization and memory. Size distributions of cluster number are diagnosed from the microgrid through an online clustering algorithm, and provided as input to a spectral multiplume eddy‐diffusivity mass flux scheme. This yields a decentralized transport system, in that the thermal clusters acting as independent but interacting nodes that carry information about spatial structure. The main objectives of this study are (a) to seek proof of concept of this approach, and (b) to gain insight into impacts of spatial organization on convective transport. Single‐column model experiments demonstrate satisfactory skill in reproducing two observed cases of continental shallow convection. Metrics expressing self‐organization and spatial organization match well with large‐eddy simulation results. We find that in this coupled system, spatial organization impacts convective transport primarily through the scale break in the size distribution of cluster number. The rooting of saturated plumes in the subcloud mixed layer plays a key role in this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make “Functional Types” more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. Here we review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Physically-Derived Dynamical Cores in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

The algorithm chosen to represent the advection in atmospheric models is often used as the primary attribute to classify the model. Meteorological models are generally classified as spectral or grid point, with the term grid point implying discretization using finite differences. These traditional approaches have a number of shortcomings that render them non-physical. That is, they provide approximate solutions to the conservation equations that do not obey the fundamental laws of physics. The most commonly discussed shortcomings are overshoots and undershoots which manifest themselves most overtly in the constituent continuity equation. For this reason many climate models have special algorithms to model water vapor advection. This talk focuses on the development of an atmospheric general circulation model which uses a consistent physically-based advection algorithm in all aspects of the model formulation. The shallow-water model is generalized to three dimensions and combined with the physics parameterizations of NCAR's Community Climate Model. The scientific motivation for the development is to increase the integrity of the underlying fluid dynamics so that the physics terms can be more effectively isolated, examined, and improved. The expected benefits of the new model are discussed and results from the initial integrations will be presented.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Modeling the Influence of Moulin Shape on Subglacial Hydrology

Subglacial models represent moulins as cylinders or cones, but field observations suggest that the upper part of moulins in the Greenland Ice Sheet has more complex shapes. These more complex shapes should cause englacial water storage within moulins to vary as a function of depth, a relationship not currently accounted for in models. Here, we use a coupled englacial-subglacial channel model to explore how moulin shape affects depth-dependent moulin water storage and water pressure dynamics within a subglacial channel. We simulate seven different moulin shapes across a range of moulin sizes. We find that the englacial storage capacity at the water level is the main control over the daily water level oscillation range and that depth-varying changes in englacial water storage control the temporal shape of this oscillation. Further, the cross-sectional area of the moulin within the daily oscillation range, but not above or below this range, controls pressures within the connected subglacial channel. Specifically, large cross-sectional areas can dampen daily to weekly oscillations that occur in the surface meltwater supply. Our findings suggest that further knowledge of the shape of moulins around the equilibrium water level would improve englacial storage parameterization in subglacial hydrological models and aid predictions of hydrodynamic coupling.

Moulin↗

Generalized skew-symmetric interfacial probability distribution in reflectivity and small-angle scattering analysis

Generalized skew-symmetric probability density functions are proposed to model asymmetric interfacial density distributions for the parameterization of any arbitrary density profiles in the `effective-density model'. The penetration of the densities into adjacent layers can be selectively controlled and parameterized. A continuous density profile is generated and discretized into many independent slices of very thin thickness with constant density values and sharp interfaces. The discretized profile can be used to calculate reflectivities via Parratt's recursive formula, or small-angle scattering via the concentric onion model that is also developed in this work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Marine Shallow Cloud Adjustments to the Presence of Shortwave-Absorbing Aerosols: Advancing Understanding Through a Combined Analysis of Lasic Datasets and Process Modeling (Final Report)

This is a final report for this award, whose purpose was to support the analysis of data emanating from the LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interaction with Clouds) campaign. (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a strategy to improve our understanding of aged carbonaceous aerosol, its seasonal evolution, and the mechanisms by which clouds adjust to the presence of the aerosol. The observational strategy centers on deploying the AMF1 cloud, aerosol, and atmospheric profiling instrumentation to Ascension Island, located within the trade-wind shallow cumulus regime (14.50W, 80S) 3000 km offshore of continental Africa. The location is within the latitude zone of the maximum outflow of aerosol, with the deepening boundary layer known to entrain free-tropospheric smoke. The primary activities for LASIC are: 1) to improve current knowledge on aged biomass burning aerosol and its radiative properties as a function of the seasonal cycle; 2) to use surface-based remote sensing to sensitively interrogate the atmosphere for the relative vertical location of aerosol and clouds; 3) to improve our understanding of the cloud adjustments to the presence of shortwave-absorbing aerosol within the vertical column, both through aerosol-radiation and through aerosol-cloud interactions; 4) to aid low cloud parameterization efforts for climate models. This award serves to further these activities and includes a sub-award to Dr. Pablo Saide at UCLA for activities 3) and 4).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linear and nonlinear ARMA model parameter estimation using an artificial neural network

This paper addresses parametric system identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems by analysis of the input and output signals. Specifically, we investigate the relationship between estimation of the system using a feedforward neural network model and estimation of the system by use of linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models. By utilizing a neural network model incorporating a polynomial activation function, we show the equivalence of the artificial neural network to the linear and nonlinear ARMA models. We compare the parameterization of the estimated system using the neural network and ARMA approaches by utilizing data generated by means of computer simulations. Specifically, we show that the parameters of a simulated ARMA system can be obtained from the neural network analysis of the simulated data or by conventional least squares ARMA analysis. The feasibility of applying neural networks with polynomial activation functions to the analysis of experimental data is explored by application to measurements of heart rate (HR) and instantaneous lung volume (ILV) fluctuations.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

CALIBRATING CONVECTIVE PROPERTIES OF SOLAR-LIKE STARS IN THE KEPLER FIELD OF VIEW

Stellar models generally use simple parameterizations to treat convection. The most widely used parameterization is the so-called mixing-length theory where the convective eddy sizes are described using a single number, {alpha}, the mixing-length parameter. This is a free parameter, and the general practice is to calibrate {alpha} using the known properties of the Sun and apply that to all stars. Using data from NASA's Kepler mission we show that using the solar-calibrated {alpha} is not always appropriate, and that in many cases it would lead to estimates of initial helium abundances that are lower than the primordial helium abundance. Kepler data allow us to calibrate {alpha} for many other stars and we show that for the sample of stars we have studied, the mixing-length parameter is generally lower than the solar value. We studied the correlation between {alpha} and stellar properties, and we find that {alpha} increases with metallicity. We therefore conclude that results obtained by fitting stellar models or by using population-synthesis models constructed with solar values of {alpha} are likely to have large systematic errors. Our results also confirm theoretical expectations that the mixing-length parameter should vary with stellar properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electrification Within Wintertime Stratiform Regions Sampled During the 2020/2022 NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign

Two nor'easter events—sampled during the NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign—were examined to characterize the microphysics in relation to the underlying electrification processes within wintertime stratiform regions. A theoretical model was developed to determine whether accretion or diffusion growth regimes were preferential during periods of greatest electrification. Model simulation with electrification parameterization was used to provide supplemental context to the physical processes of in-cloud microphysics and electrification. The strongest electric fields (i.e., ∼80 V m −1 at 20 km) during the 2020 NASA IMPACTS deployment was associated with large non-rimed ice crystals colliding with each other. During the 29–30 January 2022 science flight, the NASA P-3 microphysical probe data demonstrated that non-inductive charging was possible off the coastline of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Later in the science flight, when the NASA P-3 and ER-2 were coordinating with each other, measured electric fields consistently were less than 8 V m −1 and electrification was subdued owing to reduced concentrations of graupel and large ice hydrometeors. Altogether, the in-situ observations provide evidence for the non-riming collisional charging mechanism and demonstrates that graupel and supercooled liquid water may not be necessary for weak electrification within wintertime stratiform regions. Model output from simulation of both events suggested that the main synoptic snowbands were associated with elevated hydrometeor snow charge density and electric fields.

snowfall↗

SELF-REGULATED SHOCKS IN MASSIVE STAR BINARY SYSTEMS

In an early-type, massive star binary system, X-ray bright shocks result from the powerful collision of stellar winds driven by radiation pressure on spectral line transitions. We examine the influence of the X-rays from the wind-wind collision shocks on the radiative driving of the stellar winds using steady-state models that include a parameterized line force with X-ray ionization dependence. Our primary result is that X-ray radiation from the shocks inhibits wind acceleration and can lead to a lower pre-shock velocity, and a correspondingly lower shocked plasma temperature, yet the intrinsic X-ray luminosity of the shocks, L{sub X}, remains largely unaltered, with the exception of a modest increase at small binary separations. Due to the feedback loop between the ionizing X-rays from the shocks and the wind driving, we term this scenario as self-regulated shocks. This effect is found to greatly increase the range of binary separations at which a wind-photosphere collision is likely to occur in systems where the momenta of the two winds are significantly different. Furthermore, the excessive levels of X-ray ionization close to the shocks completely suppress the line force, and we suggest that this may render radiative braking less effective. Comparisons of model results against observations reveal reasonable agreement in terms of log (L{sub X}/L{sub bol}). The inclusion of self-regulated shocks improves the match for kT values in roughly equal wind momenta systems, but there is a systematic offset for systems with unequal wind momenta (if considered to be a wind-photosphere collision).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

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