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Analytical Large-Signal Modeling of Inverter-Based Microgrids With Koopman Operator Theory for Autonomous Control

The microgrid (MG) plays a crucial role in the energy transition, but its nonlinearity presents a significant challenge for large-signal power systems studies in the electromagnetic transient (EMT) time scale. In this paper, we develop a large-signal linear MG model that considers the detailed dynamics of the primary and zero-control levels based on the Koopman operator (KO) theory. Firstly, a set of observable functions is carefully designed to capture the nonlinear dynamics of the MG. The corresponding linear KO is then analytically derived based on these observables, resulting in the linear representation of the original nonlinear MG with observables as the new coordinate. The influence of external input on the system dynamics is also considered during the derivation, enabling control of the MG. We solve the voltage control problem using the traditional linear quadratic integrator (LQI) method to demonstrate that textbook linear control techniques can accurately control the original nonlinear MG via the developed KO-linearized MG model. Our proposed KO linearization method is generic and can be easily extended for different control objectives and MG structures using our analytical derivation procedure. Here, we validate the effectiveness of our methodology through various case studies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Near-surface Density Currents Observed in the Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus-topped Marine Boundary Layer

Density currents (i.e. cold pools or outflows) beneath marine stratocumulus clouds are characterized using a 30-d data set of ship-based observations obtained during the 2008 Variability of American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS) Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) in the southeast Pacific. An objective method identifies 71 density current fronts using an air density criterion and isolates each density current’s core (peak density) and tail (dissipating) zone. Compared to front and core zones, most density current tails exhibited weaker density gradients and wind anomalies elongated about the axis of the mean wind. The mean cloud-level advection relative to the surface layer wind (1.9 m s-1) nearly matches the mean density current propagation speed (1.8 m s-1). The similarity in speeds allows drizzle cells to deposit tails in their wakes. Based on high-resolution scanning Doppler lidar data, prefrontal updrafts had a mean intensity of 0.91 m s-1, reached an average altitude of 800 m, and were often surmounted by low-lying shelf clouds not connected to the overlying stratocumulus cloud. Nearly 90% of density currents were identified when C-band radar estimated 30-km diameter areal average rain rates exceeded 1 mm d-1. Rather than peaking when rain rates are highest overnight, density current occurrence peaks between 0600 and 0800 local solar time when enhanced local drizzle co-occurs with shallow subcloud dry and stable layers. The dry layers may contribute to density current formation by enhancing subcloud evaporation of drizzle. Density currents preferentially occur in regions of open cells but also occur in regions of closed cells.

density currents↗

Probing interfacial momentum closures in two-phase bubbly flow with machine learning-aided methods

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach has already reached a high level of maturity for single-phase flows, however the development of closure models for two-phase flow requires additional attention. Multiphase CFD (M-CFD) methods resolve the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy while differing in the approaches and strategies adopted in the physical closure models. The most widely adopted framework for M-CFD is the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid approach which assumes that all phases are co-existing inside each computational cell. For each fluid, the full set of conservation equations is solved; therefore, each fluid has a different velocity field. For adiabatic two-phase flow, the mechanisms of the interfacial momentum transfer are modeled by the interfacial forces representing different physical mechanisms. One of the crucial issues in the development and application of two-fluid model is the understanding of the interfacial momentum closures which determines the bubble distribution and migration behaviors. Dedicated experiments are performed to support the physical understanding and drive the closures’ development. However, limitations exist due to the uncertainties in the experimental measurement and the simplified analytical assumptions which have difficulties on representing the complex non-linear flow fields. In this paper, a data-driven approach, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM), is developed and proposed to resolve the challenges of modeling the interfacial forces closures. Case study is performed with two-phase flow scenarios where the high-fidelity experimental data is available. Within the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid framework, only momentum equations for gas and liquid phases are solved and reduced-order interfacial momentum closures are aided with FSM. Predictions of void fraction and velocity fields are analyzed and demonstrate the potential of machine learning-driven interfacial forces closures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analyses of Field Test Data at the Atucha-1 Spent Fuel Pools

A field test was conducted at the Atucha-1 spent nuclear fuel pools to validate a software package for gross defect detection that is used in conjunction with the inspection tool, Spent Fuel Neutron Counter (SFNC). A set of measurements was taken with the SFNC and the software predictions were compared with these data and analyzed. The data spanned a wide range of cooling times and a set of burnup levels leading to count rates from the several hundreds to around twenty per second. The current calibration in the software using linear fitting required the use of multiple calibration factors to cover the entire range of count rates recorded. The solution to this was to use power regression data fitting to normalize the predicted response and derive one calibration factor that can be applied to the entire set of data. The resulting comparisons between the predicted and measured responses were generally good and provided a quantitative method of detecting missing fuel in virtually all situations. Since the current version of the software uses the linear calibration method, it would need to be updated with the new power regression method to make it more user-friendly for real time verification and fieldable for the range of responses that will be encountered.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A determination of the radio-planetary frame tie and the DSN tracking station locations

The orientation of the reference frame of radio source catalogs relative to that of planetary ephemerides is uncertain by 30 mas (150 nrad). At this level of uncertainty this orientation offset, or 'frame tie', can be a major systematic error source for interplanetary spacecraft orbit determination. This work presents a method of determining the radio-planetary frame tie from a comparison of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) station coordinate and earth orientation parameter estimates. Preliminary results are presented which indicate that accuracies of 5 mas or better may be achieved with this method. An important by-product of this method of frame tie determination is a set of Deep Space Network (DSN) station locations with 10 cm per component accuracy. This station set is in a geocentric coordinate system with known orientation relative to the radio and planetary frames.

Finger, Mark H.↗

The Dissociation Energies of He2, HeH, and ArH; A Bond Function Study

The bond energies and bond lengths are determined for He2, HeH, and ArH at the CCSD(T) level using both atom-centered basis sets and those that include bond functions. The addition of bond functions dramatically improves the rate of convergence of the results with respect to the size of the atom-centered basis set; with bond functions, triple zeta atom-centered basis set, outperform quintuple zeta basis sets without bond functions. The addition of bond functions also reduces the number of diffuse functions that must be added to the atom-centered sets. Employing bond functions appear to offer a very cost effective method of computing the interaction between weakly bound systems, especially for He.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Sandford, Stephen P.↗

Fuzzy set methods for object recognition in space applications

Progress on the following tasks is reported: (1) fuzzy set-based decision making methodologies; (2) feature calculation; (3) clustering for curve and surface fitting; and (4) acquisition of images. The general structure for networks based on fuzzy set connectives which are being used for information fusion and decision making in space applications is described. The structure and training techniques for such networks consisting of generalized means and gamma-operators are described. The use of other hybrid operators in multicriteria decision making is currently being examined. Numerous classical features on image regions such as gray level statistics, edge and curve primitives, texture measures from cooccurrance matrix, and size and shape parameters were implemented. Several fractal geometric features which may have a considerable impact on characterizing cluttered background, such as clouds, dense star patterns, or some planetary surfaces, were used. A new approach to a fuzzy C-shell algorithm is addressed. NASA personnel are in the process of acquiring suitable simulation data and hopefully videotaped actual shuttle imagery. Photographs have been digitized to use in the algorithms. Also, a model of the shuttle was assembled and a mechanism to orient this model in 3-D to digitize for experiments on pose estimation is being constructed.

Keller, James M.↗

Elucidating geochemical response of shallow heterogeneous aquifers to CO2 leakage using high-performance computing: Implications for monitoring of CO2 sequestration

Predicting and quantifying impacts of potential carbon dioxide (CO2) leakage into shallow aquifers that overlie geologic CO2 storage formations is an important part of developing reliable carbon storage techniques. Leakage of CO2 through fractures, faults or faulty wellbores can reduce groundwater pH, inducing geochemical reactions that release solutes into the groundwater and pose a risk of degrading groundwater quality. In order to help quantify this risk, predictions of metal concentrations are needed during geologic storage of CO2. Here, we present regional-scale reactive transport simulations, at relatively fine-scale, of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers run on the PFLOTRAN platform using high-performance computing. Multiple realizations of heterogeneous permeability distributions were generated using standard geostatistical methods. Increased statistical anisotropy of the permeability field resulted in more lateral and vertical spreading of the plume of impacted water, leading to increased Pb2+ (lead) concentrations and lower pH at a well down gradient of the CO2 leak. Pb2+ concentrations were higher in simulations where calcite was the source of Pb2+ compared to galena. The low solubility of galena effectively buffered the Pb2+ concentrations as galena reached saturation under reducing conditions along the flow path. In all cases, Pb2+ concentrations remained below the maximum contaminant level set by the EPA. Results from this study, compared to natural variability observed in aquifers, suggest that bicarbonate (HCO3) concentrations may be a better geochemical indicator of a CO2 leak under the conditions simulated here.

carbon sequestration↗

Mitigation of the Brighter-fatter Effect in the LSST Camera

Abstract Thick, fully depleted charge-coupled devices are known to exhibit nonlinear behavior at high signal levels due to the dynamic behavior of charges collecting in the potential wells of pixels, called the brighter-fatter effect (BFE). The effect results in distorted images of bright calibration stars, creating a flux-dependent point-spread function that if left unmitigated, could make up a large fraction of the error budget in Stage IV weak-lensing (WL) surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In this paper, we analyze image measurements of flat fields and artificial stars taken at different illumination levels with the LSST Camera (LSSTCam) at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in order to quantify this effect in the LSSTCam before and after a previously introduced correction technique. We observe that the BFE evolves anisotropically as a function of flux due to higher-order BFEs, which violates the fundamental assumption of this correction method. We then introduce a new method based on a physically motivated model to account for these higher-order terms in the correction, and then we test the modified correction on both data sets. We find that the new method corrects the effect in flat fields better than it corrects the effect in artificial stars, which we suggest is the result of sub-pixel physics not included in this correction model. We use these results to define a new metric for the full-well capacity of our sensors and advise image processing strategies to further limit the impact of the effect on LSST WL science pathways.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Interplanetary proton fluence model - JPL 1991

We describe an updated predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with energies respectively greater than 1, 4, 10, 30, and 60 MeV. This has been the first opportunity to derive a model from a data set that has been collected in space over a long enough period of time to produce a valid sample of solar proton events. The model provides a quantitative basis for estimating the exposures to solar protons of spacecraft during missions of varying length and of surfaces and atmospheres of solar system objects. The data sets contain several major proton events comparable to the 1972 event. For the cases of the over 10 and over 30 MeV particles, the fluences are somewhat lower than in our earlier model No over 1, over 4, and over 60 MeV proton fluence models have been published in the literature previously. We present our results in a convenient graphical form which may be used to calculate the 1 AU fluence expected at a given confidence level as a function of the length of the exposure. A method of extending this estimate to other heliocentric distances is described.

Feynman, J.↗

Opening Loads Analyses for Various Disk-Gap-Band Parachutes

Detailed opening loads data is presented for 18 tests of Disk-Gap-Band (DGB) parachutes of varying geometry with nominal diameters ranging from 43.2 to 50.1 ft. All of the test parachutes were deployed from a mortar. Six of these tests were conducted via drop testing with drop test vehicles weighing approximately 3,000 or 8,000 lb. Twelve tests were conducted in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex 80- by 120-foot wind tunnel at the NASA Ames Research Center. The purpose of these tests was to structurally qualify the parachute for the Mars Exploration Rover mission. A key requirement of all tests was that peak parachute load had to be reached at full inflation to more closely simulate the load profile encountered during operation at Mars. Peak loads measured during the tests were in the range from 12,889 to 30,027 lb. Of the two test methods, the wind tunnel tests yielded more accurate and repeatable data. Application of an apparent mass model to the opening loads data yielded insights into the nature of these loads. Although the apparent mass model could reconstruct specific tests with reasonable accuracy, the use of this model for predictive analyses was not accurate enough to set test conditions for either the drop or wind tunnel tests. A simpler empirical model was found to be suitable for predicting opening loads for the wind tunnel tests to a satisfactory level of accuracy. However, this simple empirical model is not applicable to the drop tests.

Cruz, J. R.↗

NASA Weather Support 2017

In the mid to late 1980's, as NASA was studying ways to improve weather forecasting capabilities to reduce excessive weather launch delays and to reduce excessive weather Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) waivers, the Challenger Accident occurred and the AC-67 Mishap occurred.[1] NASA and USAF weather personnel had advance knowledge of extremely high levels of weather hazards that ultimately caused or contributed to both of these accidents. In both cases, key knowledge of the risks posed by violations of weather LCC was not in the possession of final decision makers on the launch teams. In addition to convening the mishap boards for these two lost missions, NASA convened expert meteorological boards focusing on weather support. These meteorological boards recommended the development of a dedicated organization with the highest levels of weather expertise and influence to support all of American spaceflight. NASA immediately established the Weather Support Office (WSO) in the Office of Space Flight (OSF), and in coordination with the United Stated Air Force (USAF), initiated an overhaul of the organization and an improvement in technology used for weather support as recommended. Soon after, the USAF established a senior civilian Launch Weather Officer (LWO) position to provide meteorological support and continuity of weather expertise and knowledge over time. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was established by NASA, USAF, and the National Weather Service to support initiatives to place new tools and methods into an operational status. At the end of the Shuttle Program, after several weather office reorganizations, the WSO function had been assigned to a weather branch at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). This branch was dismantled in steps due to further reorganization, loss of key personnel, and loss of budget line authority. NASA is facing the loss of sufficient expertise and leadership required to provide current levels of weather support. The recommendation proposed herein is to re-establish the WSO under a high level office, with funding set at about the same levels as today, with a revitalized charter and focus to allow for the WSO to operate as originally intended.

lessons learned↗

Development of Processing Technology for Radioactively Contaminated Water at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant - 19656

During the operation of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, distillation by evaporation was the main method for processing radioactively contaminated water. When the plant was decommissioned, the evaporation facility was mothballed and floor drain treatment was suspended in 2016. At present, the existing tanks with the capacity of 26,000 m{sup 3} are more than 60% full with radioactively contaminated floor drains, which requires alternative processing methods. The current process flow for radioactive waste management at State Specialized Enterprise 'Chernobyl NPP' includes processing of accumulated liquid radioactive wastes at a liquid radioactive wastes processing plant. Under the processing technology, liquid radioactive waste is immobilized at the plant by cementation and the resulting solid radioactive waste is then buried in a near-surface storage. Key factors for the selection of alternative radioactively contaminated water processing methods are the possibility to clear the processed water (no control monitoring), which requires the same degree of processing as for drinking water, and minimization of radioactive waste generation due to the lack of free space for solid waste disposal in the near-surface storage. Floor drains that require processing contain radionuclides such as {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 60}Co and {sup 40}K. The current level of the total beta and gamma activity is about 4*105 Bq/kg. The following criteria are set for the Chernobyl NPP site for water to be disposed to the sewerage system: - Max. 37 Bq/kg for the total beta and gamma containing radionuclide activity; - Max. 0.7 Bq/kg for the total alpha containing radionuclide activity. METOIL produces inorganic sorbents for removing radionuclides from liquids and develops sorbent-based technology for a variety of applications related to liquid radioactive waste processing. In 2017-2018, experts from the Chernobyl NPP and METOIL ran several joint laboratory tests to evaluate the efficiency of inorganic sorbents made by METOIL for processing floor drains at the Chernobyl NPP. The test procedure included treatment of radioactively contaminated water in a two-stage sorption process: static sorption (sorbents are mixed in a liquid) and dynamic sorption (the liquid is filtered through a sorbent column). NIKET and MODIKS sorbents were provided for the tests. The results of the test measurements showed that the total alpha containing radionuclide activity is less than 0.026 Bq/kg and the total beta and gamma containing radionuclide activity is 9.2 Bq/kg. The physical and chemical parameters after processing also met the water disposal criteria. High sorption capacity of the sorbents used for the tests allows processing hundreds of water volumes with just one sorbent volume. At present, preparations are underway for full-scale tests at a pilot plant with a capacity of minimum 10 m{sup 3}/day. At a later stage, spent sorbents may be immobilized by inclusion into the cement matrix, which will substantially reduce the amount of radioactive waste to be buried. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

New Levels of High Angular Resolution EBSD Performance via Inverse Compositional Gauss-Newton Digital Image Correlation

Conventional high angular resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HREBSD) uses cross-correlation to track features between diffraction patterns, which are then related to the relative elastic strain and misorientation between the diffracting volumes of material. This paper adapts inverse compositional Gauss Newton (ICGN) digital image correlation (DIC) to be compatible with HREBSD. ICGN works by efficiently tracking not just the shift in features, but also the change in their shape. Modeling a shape change as well as a shift results in greater accuracy. This method, ICGN HREBSD, is applied to a simulated data set, and its performance is compared to conventional cross-correlation HREBSD, and cross-correlation HREBSD with remapping. ICGN HREBSD is shown to have about half the strain error of the best cross-correlation method with a comparable computation time.

T. J. Ruggles↗

The formation and disintegration of magnetic bright points observed by sunrise/IMaX

The evolution of the physical parameters of magnetic bright points (MBPs) located in the quiet Sun (mainly in the interwork) during their lifetime is studied. First, we concentrate on the detailed description of the magnetic field evolution of three MBPs. This reveals that individual features follow different, generally complex, and rather dynamic scenarios of evolution. Next, we apply statistical methods on roughly 200 observed MBP evolutionary tracks. MBPs are found to be formed by the strengthening of an equipartition field patch, which initially exhibits a moderate downflow. During the evolution, strong downdrafts with an average velocity of 2.4 km s{sup –1} set in. These flows, taken together with the concurrent strengthening of the field, suggest that we are witnessing the occurrence of convective collapses in these features, although only 30% of them reach kG field strengths. This fraction might turn out to be larger when the new 4 m class solar telescopes are operational as observations of MBPs with current state of the art instrumentation could still be suffering from resolution limitations. Finally, when the bright point disappears (although the magnetic field often continues to exist) the magnetic field strength has dropped to the equipartition level and is generally somewhat weaker than at the beginning of the MBP's evolution. Also, only relatively weak downflows are found on average at this stage of the evolution. Only 16% of the features display upflows at the time that the field weakens, or the MBP disappears. This speaks either for a very fast evolving dynamic process at the end of the lifetime, which could not be temporally resolved, or against strong upflows as the cause of the weakening of the field of these magnetic elements, as has been proposed based on simulation results. It is noteworthy that in about 10% of the cases, we observe in the vicinity of the downflows small-scale strong (exceeding 2 km s{sup –1}) intergranular upflows related spatially and temporally to these downflows. The paper is complemented by a detailed discussion of aspects regarding the applied methods, the complementary literature, and in depth analysis of parameters like magnetic field strength and velocity distributions. An important difference to magnetic elements and associated bright structures in active region plage is that most of the quiet Sun bright points display significant downflows over a large fraction of their lifetime (i.e., in more than 46% of time instances/measurements they show downflows exceeding 1 km s{sup –1}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗

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