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The Eris/Dysnomia System I: The Orbit of Dysnomia

We present new results on the Eris/Dysnomia system including analysis of new images from the WFC3 instru-ment on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Seven HST orbits were awarded to program 15171 in January and February 2018, with the intervals between observations selected to sample Dysnomia over a full orbital period. Using relative astrometry of Eris and Dysnomia, we computed a best-fit Keplerian orbit for Dysnomia. Based on the Keplerian fit, we find an orbital period of 15.785899±0.000050 days, which is in good agreement with recent work. We report a non-zero eccentricity of 0.0062 at the 6.2-σ level, despite an estimated eccentricity damping timescale of ≤17 Myr. Considering the volumes of both Eris and Dysnomia, the new system density was calculated to be 2.43±0.05 g cm3, a decrease of ~4% from the previous value of 2.52±0.05 g cm3. The new astrometric measurements were high enough precision to break the degeneracy of the orbit pole orientation, and indicate that Dysnomia orbits in a prograde manner. The obliquity of Dysnomia’s orbit pole with respect to the plane of Eris’ heliocentric orbit was calculated to be 78.29±0.65∘ and is in agreement with previous work; the next mutual events season will occur in 2239. The Keplerian orbit fit to all the data considered in this investi-gation can be excluded at the 6.3-σ level, but identifying the cause of the deviation was outside the scope of this work.

B J Holler↗

What Could Be the Observational Signature of Dark Matter in Globular Clusters?

Here we investigate the possibility that some globular clusters (GCs) harbor intermediate mass black holes (BH) in their centers and are also embedded in a low-mass dark matter (DM) halo. Up to date, there is no evidence on whether or not GCs have DM in their constitution. For standard cold DM cosmology, it is expected that GCs form with their own DM halos. Other studies investigate the possibility that GCs were initially embedded in massive DM halos that evolved during the cluster lifetime. An additional intriguing question is related to the existence of intermediate mass black holes (IMBH) in the GCs. The determination of whether GCs hold IMBHs would be able to answer important questions about GCs formation and the circumstances that gave rise to the IMBHs. DM & IMBH in the context of GCs are interesting subjects to be studied and we will perform such studies here, assuming the coexistence of both of them in some GCs. Having such information, we perform the study possible DM signals from GCs. One important subject to be studied is the DM density profile. In the inner regions of GCs, the DM density profile is still an open question of fundamental importance to DM studies, specially for the study of radio and γ-ray emission from DM annihilation in such regions. Here we consider the case of IMBHs in the inner regions of three GCs: 47 Tuc, NGC 6266 and ω Cen. The existence of a black hole (BH) directly affects the matter distribution in its vicinity. These effects are significant for IMBHs as well as supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and can lead to large DM overdensities called spikes. In this paper, we direct our studies to the radio synchrotron emission from DM annihilation with spike profiles around possible IMBHs in GCs. We present our results for synchrotron emission produced by DM annihilation via bbar b channel. We use the best-fit DM mass of 34 GeV and annihilation channel in bbar b used to explain the Galactic center "excess" and perform our analysis for the estimated radio flux. We direct our attention specially to the γ-ray emission from 47 Tuc. When considering a scenario wich includes a BH and the combined analysis of multi-wavelength studies, we conclude that some parameter choice as the annihilation cross section ⟨σ v⟩ used to fit the γ-ray excess differs by many orders of magnitude from the one necessary to fit the radio observations for this globular cluster if we consider the BH scenario.

Elaine C F S Fortes↗

Analysis of Broad-Lined Type Ic Supernovae From the (Intermediate) Palomar Transient Factory

We study 34 Type Ic supernovae that have broad spectral features (SNe Ic-BL). This is the only SN type found in association with long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs).We obtained our photometric data with the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) and its continuation, the intermediate PTF (iPTF). This is the first large, homogeneous sample of SNe Ic-BL from an untargeted survey. Furthermore, given the high observational cadence of iPTF, most of these SNe Ic-BL were discovered soon after explosion. We present K-corrected Bgriz light curves of these SNe, obtained through photometry on template-subtracted images. We analyzed the shape of the r-band light curves, finding a correlation between the decline parameter delta m15 and the rise parameter delta m-10. We studied the SN colors and, based on g - r, we estimated the host-galaxy extinction for each event. Peak r-band absolute magnitudes have an average of -18:6 +- 0:5 mag. We fit each r-band light curve with that of SN 1998bw (scaled and stretched) to derive the explosion epochs. We computed the bolometric light curves using bolometric corrections, r-band data, and g - r colors. Expansion velocities from Fe ii were obtained by fitting spectral templates of SNe Ic. Bolometric light curves and velocities at peak were fitted using the semianalytic Arnett model to estimate ejecta mass Mej, explosion energy EK and 56Ni mass M(56Ni) for each SN. We find average values of Mej = 4 +- 3 M sun, EK = (7 +- 6) x 1051 erg, and M(56Ni) = 0:31 +- 0:16 M . The parameter distributions were compared to those presented in the literature and are overall in agreement with them. We also estimated the degree of 56Ni mixing using scaling relations derived from hydrodynamical models and we find that all the SNe are strongly mixed. The derived explosion parameters imply that at least 21% of the progenitors of SNe Ic-BL are compatible with massive (>28 M ), possibly single stars, whereas at least 64% might come from less massive stars in close binary systems.

Supernovae↗

X-ray Spectra and Multiwavelength Machine Learning Classification for Likely Counterparts toFermi3FGL Unassociated Sources

We conduct X-ray spectral fits on 184 likely counterparts to Fermi-LAT 3FGL unassociated sources. Characterization and classification of these sources allows for more complete population studies of the high-energy sky. Most of these X-ray spectra are well fit by an absorbed power law model, as expected for a population dominated by blazars and pulsars. A small subset of 7 X-ray sources ave spectra unlike the power law expected from a blazar or pulsar and may be linked to coincident stars or background emission. We develop a multiwavelength machine learning classifier to categorize unassociated sources into pulsars and blazars using gamma- and X-ray observations. Training a random forest procedure with known pulsars and blazars, we achieve a cross-validated classification accuracy of 98.6%. Applying the random forest routine to the unassociated sources returned 126 likely blazar candidates (defined as P(bzr) ≥ 90%) and 5 likely pulsar candidates (P(bzr) ≤ 10%). Our new X-ray spectral analysis does not drastically alter the random forest classifications of these sources compared to previous works, but it builds a more robust classification scheme and highlights the importance of X-ray spectral fitting. Our procedure can be further expanded with UV, visual, or radio spectral parameters or by measuring flux variability.

Stephen Kerby↗

Atacama Cosmology Telescope measurements of a large sample of candidates from the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey: Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect confirmation of MaDCoWS candidates using ACT

Context. Galaxy clusters are an important tool for cosmology, and their detection and characterization are key goals for current and future surveys. Using data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey (MaDCoWS) located 2839 significant galaxy overdensities at redshifts 0.7 . z . 1.5, which included extensive follow-up imaging from the Spitzer Space Telescope to determine cluster richnesses. Concurrently, the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) has produced large area millimeter-wave maps in three frequency bands along with a large catalog of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ)-selected clusters as part of its Data Release 5 (DR5). Aims. We aim to verify and characterize MaDCoWS clusters using measurements of, or limits on, their thermal SZ effect signatures. We also use these detections to establish the scaling relation between SZ mass and the MaDCoWS-defined richness. Methods. Using the maps and cluster catalog from DR5, we explore the scaling between SZ mass and cluster richness. We do this by comparing cataloged detections and extracting individual and stacked SZ signals from the MaDCoWS cluster locations. We use complementary radio survey data from the Very Large Array, submillimeter data from Herschel, and ACT 224 GHz data to assess the impact of contaminating sources on the SZ signals from both ACT and MaDCoWS clusters. We use a hierarchical Bayesian model to fit the mass-richness scaling relation, allowing for clusters to be drawn from two populations: one, a Gaussian centered on the mass-richness relation, and the other, a Gaussian centered on zero SZ signal. Results. We find that MaDCoWS clusters have submillimeter contamination that is consistent with a gray-body spectrum, while the ACT clusters are consistent with no submillimeter emission on average. Additionally, the intrinsic radio intensities of ACT clusters are lower than those of MaDCoWS clusters, even when the ACT clusters are restricted to the same redshift range as the MaDCoWS clusters. We find the best-fit ACT SZ mass versus MaDCoWS richness scaling relation has a slope of p1 = 1.84+0.15 −0.14, where the slope is defined as M ∝ λ p1 15 and λ15 is the richness. We also find that the ACT SZ signals for a significant fraction (∼57%) of the MaDCoWS sample can statistically be described as being drawn from a noise-like distribution, indicating that the candidates are possibly dominated by low-mass and unvirialized systems that are below the mass limit of the ACT sample. Further, we note that a large portion of the optically confirmed ACT clusters located in the same volume of the sky as MaDCoWS are not selected by MaDCoWS, indicating that the MaDCoWS sample is not complete with respect to SZ selection. Finally, we find that the radio loud fraction of MaDCoWS clusters increases with richness, while we find no evidence that the submillimeter emission of the MaDCoWS clusters evolves with richness. Conclusions. We conclude that the original MaDCoWS selection function is not well defined and, as such, reiterate the MaDCoWS collaboration’s recommendation that the sample is suited for probing cluster and galaxy evolution, but not cosmological analyses. We find a best-fit mass-richness relation slope that agrees with the published MaDCoWS preliminary results. Additionally, we find that while the approximate level of infill of the ACT and MaDCoWS cluster SZ signals (1–2%) is subdominant to other sources of uncertainty for current generation experiments, characterizing and removing this bias will be critical for next-generation experiments hoping to constrain cluster masses at the sub-percent level.

large↗

A NICER Look at Thermonuclear X-ray Bursts from Aql X-1

We present spectral and temporal properties of all the thermonuclear X-ray bursts observed from Aql X-1 by the Neutron StarInterior and Composition Explorer (NICER) between 2017 July and 2021 April. This is the first systematic investigation of alarge sample of type I X-ray bursts from Aql X-1 with improved sensitivity at low energies. We detect 22 X-ray bursts includingtwo short recurrence burst events in which the separation was only 451 s and 496 s. We perform time resolved spectroscopy of thebursts using the fixed and scaled background (fa method) approaches. We show that the use of a scaling factor to the pre-burstemission is the statistically preferred model in about 68% of all the spectra compared to the fixed background approach. Typically the fa values are clustered around 1–3, but can reach up to 11 in a burst where photospheric radius expansion is observed. Such fa values indicate a very significant increase in the pre-burst emission especially at around the peak flux moments of the bursts.We show that the use of the fa factor alters the best fit spectral parameters of the burst emission. Finally, we employed a reflectionmodel instead of scaling the pre-burst emission. We show that reflection models also do fit the spectra and improve the goodnessof the fits. In all cases we see that the disc is highly ionized by the burst emission and the fraction of the reprocessed emission tothe incident burst flux is typically clustered around 20%

Tolga Güver↗

TOI-674b: An oasis in the desert of exo-Neptunes transiting a nearby M dwarf

Context. The NASA mission TESS is currently doing an all-sky survey from space to detect transiting planets around bright stars. As part of the validation process, the most promising planet candidates need to be confirmed and characterized using follow-up observations. Aims. In this article, our aim is to confirm the planetary nature of the transiting planet candidate TOI-674b using spectroscopic and photometric observations. Methods. We use TESS, Spitzer, ground-based light curves, and HARPS spectrograph radial velocity measurements to establish the physical properties of the transiting exoplanet candidate TOI-674b. We perform a joint fit of the light curves and radial velocity time series to measure the mass, radius, and orbital parameters of the candidate. Results. We confirm and characterize TOI-674b, a low-density super-Neptune transiting a nearby M dwarf. The host star (TIC 158588995, V = 14.2 mag, J = 10.3 mag) is characterized by its M2V spectral type with M⋆ = 0.420 ± 0.010 Mꙩ, R⋆ = 0.420 ± 0.013 Rꙩ, and T(eff) = 3514 ± 57 K; it is located at a distance d = 46.16 ± 0.03 pc. Combining the available transit light curves plus radial velocity measurements and jointly fitting a circular orbit model, we find an orbital period of 1.977143 ± 3 × 10^(−6) days, a planetary radius of 5.25 ± 0.17 Rꚛ, and a mass of 23.6 ± 3.3 Mꚛ implying a mean density of ρp =0.91 ± 0.15 g/cu. cm. A non-circular orbit model fit delivers similar planetary mass and radius values within the uncertainties. Given the measured planetary radius and mass, TOI-674b is one of the largest and most massive super-Neptune class planets discovered around an M-type star to date. It is found in the Neptunian desert, and is a promising candidate for atmospheric characterization using the James Webb Space Telescope.

F. Murgas↗

Recommended Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Collision Model Parameters for Reacting Methane Flows

While hydrocarbon combustion and gas-surface interactions have been simulated for a variety of applications in continuum solvers, such processes have been rarely investigated in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC). Thus Variable Hard/Soft Sphere (VHS/VSS)collision parameters are not available for most molecules of interest in the decomposition of methane, a significant pyrolysis gas product and potential atmospheric species for Titan re-entries. As these properties are essential for accurate modeling of gas transport and thermochemical effects, a method must be devised to compute them for use in DSMC. In this study, the methodology outlined in Stephani et al is utilized to compute the VHS/VSS parameters by fitting the Ω(1,1)and Ω(2,2) collision integrals [1]. These collision integrals are typically computed from intermolecular potentials and are used in CFD simulations to calculate transport properties such as viscosity, thermal conductivity, and diffusion. This approach ensures consistency between micro-scale collisions and macro-scale transport properties. To produce the necessary collision integrals needed for the fitting routine, we utilize the method described by Laricchiuta et al, where collision integrals are computed based on the constituent particles’ polarizability and effective electron number [2].Preliminary computations of pure-species Ω(1,1)and Ω(2,2)collision integrals produced from the coupled approach of Stephani et al and Laricchiuta et al for methane show good agreement with those computed via available ab-initio Potential Energy Surface Computations, as seen in Figure 1. Above 300K, no more than 12% deviation is observed between the two results over the temperature range of the fitted PES data [3].Current results of this study include full collision-specificVSS transport properties for a complex-species mixture involving major byproducts of pure methane decomposition. Targeted final results will include a comprehensive list of VSS parameters relevant toDSMC simulations of Titan atmospheric entry, based on the reduced kinetic model of Savajano et al [4].

M R Gosma↗

Advancements in Force and Angle Measurement by the NFMTC

The National Force Measurement Technology Capability (NFMTC) is a nationwide partnership established in 2008 and sponsored by NASA’s Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project to maintain and further develop force and angle measurement capabilities primarily for NASA’s ground test facilities. One of the NFMTC’s primary objectives is to develop new force and angle measurement capabilities to meet the needs of researchers testing in NASA’s ground test facilities. This work will highlight several new capabilities that are either at or near operational readiness. A new six-component flow-through balance was designed and fabricated to support an upcoming retropropulsion test campaign at the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The balance employs membranes in place of bellows, which have historically been used, and passes the flow through load bearing parts of the balance. Flow through the balance is optimized via the addition of flow guides, which are manufactured as separate parts, and attached to the balance. Calibration of this new flow-through balance demonstrates that it can suitably characterize the load and pressure ranges it was designed for, which provides aero researchers a new tool to directly measure retropropulsion performance of powered descent vehicles. Balances used in NASA’s ground test facilities are typically either single-piece balances or floating-frame balances. Historically, these two types of balances have generally used different front-end (model) attachments. Single-piece balances generally have a cylindrical front end that is forward of any measuring sections and at a reduced diameter relative to the balance outer diameter. Floating-frame balances generally have front end fits that extend over one or more measuring sections and that engage at the balance outer diameter. Recently, the NFMTC fabricated a single-piece balance with a front end fit that is compatible with the hardware used to calibrate floating-frame balances. Calibration results evaluating this front end fit will be presented. From a recent survey of angle measurement needs, the development of smaller angle measurement packages was identified as one area of improvement. Micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) are continually being refined to provide high performance accelerometers that are a fraction of the volume of the quartz flexure based accelerometers that are standard in wind tunnels. A survey of commercial off-the-shelf MEMS accelerometers was conducted, and it identified the Safran Colibrys MS lines to be of adequate performance. Single-axis test boards and tri-axis rigid-flex production boards were designed and fabricated with a volume of approximately .18 cubic inches. The boards were designed to provide all the necessary conditioning for the MEMS accelerometers at levels to meet or exceed all requirements for the MS line sensors. Preliminary testing of these assembled sensor packages has demonstrated acceptable performance for wind-tunnel angle measurement. Several new rotating balances are at various stages of completion for NASA Glenn Research Center’s fan drive rigs. These balances provide direct measurement of thrust and torque of a driven fan or fan section to provide an estimate of fan efficiency and net thrust. Three two-component balances have been recently completed, and one six-component balance is in active development. A custom rotating telemetry system has been developed to support testing with these balances, and the telemetry system is integrated into the forward end of each one. The telemetry system is designed to remove mechanical sliprings by using an optical ethernet-based slipring for data transmission.

Force measurement↗

Polarization performance simulation for the GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument: NO2 retrieval impacts

NOAA’s Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) constellation will continue and expand on the capabilities of the current generation of geostationary satellite systems to support US weather, ocean, atmosphere, and climate operations. It is planned to consist of a dedicated atmospheric composition instrument (ACX) to support air quality forecasting and monitoring by providing similar capabilities to missions such as TEMPO (Tropospheric Emission: Monitoring Pollution), currently planned to launch in 2023, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument), and GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) currently in operation. As the early phases of ACX development are progressing, design trade-offs are being considered to understand the relationship between instrument design choices and trace gas retrieval impacts. Some of these choices will affect the instrument polarization sensitivity (PS), which can have radiometric impacts on environmental satellite observations. We conducted a study to investigate how such radiometric impacts can affect NO2 retrievals by exploring their sensitivities to time of day, location, and scene type with an ACX instrument model that incorporates PS. The study addresses the basic steps of operational NO2 retrievals: the spectral fitting step and the conversion of slant column to vertical column via the air mass factor (AMF). The spectral fitting step was performed by generating at-sensor radiance from a clear sky scene with a known NO2 amount, the application of an instrument model including both instrument PS and noise, and a physical retrieval. The spectral fitting step was found to mitigate the impacts of instrument PS. The AMF-related step was considered for clear sky and partially cloudy scenes, where instrument PS can lead to errors in interpreting the cloud content, propagating to AMF errors and finally to NO2 retrieval errors. For this step, the NO2 retrieval impacts were small but non-negligible for high NO2 amounts; we estimated that a typical high NO2 amount can cause maximum of 0.25 x 10^15 molecules/cm^2 for a PS of 5%. These simulation capabilities were designed to aid in the development of a GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument that will improve our ability to monitor and understand the Earth’s atmosphere.

trace gases↗

Variability Timescale and Spectral Index of Sgr A* in the Near Infrared: Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis of the Variability of the Closest Supermassive Black Hole

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A* ) is the variable radio, near-infrared (NIR), and X-ray source associated with accretion onto the Galactic center black hole. We present an analysis of the most comprehensive NIR variability data set of Sgr A* to date: eight 24 hr epochs of continuous monitoring of Sgr A* at 4.5 μm with the IRAC instrument on the Spitzer Space Telescope, 93 epochs of 2.18 μm data from Naos Conica at the Very Large Telescope, and 30 epochs of 2.12 μm data from the NIRC2 camera at the Keck Observatory, in total 94,929 measurements. A new approximate Bayesian computation method for fitting the first-order structure function extracts information beyond current fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods of power spectral density (PSD) estimation. With a combined fit of the data of all three observatories, the characteristic coherence timescale of Sgr A* is b 243 57 82 t = - + minutes (90% credible interval). The PSD has no detectable features on timescales down to 8.5 minutes (95% credible level), which is the ISCO orbital frequency for a dimensionless spin parameter a = 0.92. One light curve measured simultaneously at 2.12 and 4.5 μm during a low flux-density phase gave a spectral index αs = 1.6 ± 0.1 (F µ n s n -a ). This value implies that the Sgr A* NIR color becomes bluer during higher flux-density phases. The probability densities of flux densities of the combined data sets are best fit by log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, the Sgr A* spectral energy distribution is consistent with synchrotron radiation from a nonthermal electron population from below 20 GHz through the NIR.

accretion↗

Model for Dielectric Constant of Seawater based on L-band Measurements with Conductivity by Definition

This article reports an improvement in the model for the dielectric constant of seawater used to fit laboratory measurements of the dielectric constant at the L-band. The new model (dielectric constant as a function of salinity, temperature, and frequency) is based on the response of a polar molecule proposed by Debye and fits the same measurement as reported in earlier work but uses a functional form for conductivity, σ(S,T) , that is given by the definition of salinity. The new version of this model fits the data well and has the advantages that the relaxation time constant is allowed to be a function of temperature and salinity and is well behaved when extrapolated to high salinities.

L-band↗

An Investigation Into Possible Systematic Effects on Neutron Star Radius Estimates using NICER-like Synthetic Data

Neutron star cores contain the densest matter in the observable universe. The state of this matter is of interest in numerous fields, but laboratory experiments cannot explore this matter. Although the composition of the matter would be of great interest, macroscopic observables such as the neutron star mass-radius relation depend primarily on the equation of state (EOS). As a result, precise and reliable radius measurements would be valuable in constraining the EOS. However, most attempts at radius measurements are susceptible to systematic errors, meaning the inferred radius can be significantly biased even though the fit to the data appears to be statistically good. Previous studies suggested that radii inferred using X-ray data provided by NASA’s NICER mission may be more immune from such systematic errors. This is in part because, compared with previous measurements that obtained averaged spectra and fluxes, NICER observes millisecond pulsars by timing the photons so precisely, it is possible to obtain the spectrum as a function of rotational phase and see variations such as heated regions on the star rotate into and out of view hundreds of times per second. This extra information seems promising to break degeneracies and mitigate systematic errors, but a more in-depth study is necessary. We report the first steps of that study, in which we generate NICER-like synthetic data and determine the quality of fit and bias in radius obtained when we fit the data using a model different from the model used to generate the data.

Isiah Holt↗

Risk of Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength &, Endurance (Short Title: Muscle) and Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity (Short Title: Aerobic)

This report reviews the scientific literature regarding the human system risks to the microgravity environment of space flight in relation to human performance. The primary human performance-related risks involve deconditioning of the cardiovascular and skeletal muscles systems due to prolonged exposure to the reduced gravitational input. The chronological history of U.S. space flight is reviewed as a starting point to inform and understand the gaps in the knowledge to these risks. Maintenance of physical performance capabilities involves understanding the health of many organ systems (peripheral [vascular, heart, blood volume, skeletal muscle] and central [brain]) that ultimately contribute to the submaximal and maximal capacity of the aerobic (VO2peak), skeletal muscle (strength and endurance) systems. Maintaining astronaut VO2peak, muscle mass, strength, and endurance before, during, and after space flight is a significant priority to NASA for the current International Space Station (ISS) era, as well as for future exploration missions. A growing research database from both space flight and ground-based analog studies finds that the cardiorespiratory system is compromised and skeletal muscles (predominantly postural muscles of the lower limbs) undergo atrophy. These structural and metabolic responses to living in microgravity conditions contribute to physiological deconditioning during space flight that potentially increase the risks to astronauts returning to surface operations (i.e., Moon, Mars, or Earth). The time course changes from short to long-duration space flight and the relationships between in-flight performance deconditioning levels are not well characterized. Moreover, there are large interindividual variabilities that may be dependent on genetics, age, sex, preflight fitness levels, and individual exercise prescriptions that need further careful evaluations. Efforts should be made to understand the current status of preflight, in-flight, and postflight exercise performance capability and to define the operational goals and target areas for protection with the in-flight exercise program. There is a bi-directional relationship between exercise prescription and hardware countermeasures that need further understanding in-flight. For example, hardware with limited capabilities/modalities may be counterbalanced by changes in exercise prescription (i.e., frequency, time, intensity, volume) for providing effective responses to maintain fitness. Importantly, the minimal requirements for exercise prescription on ISS hardware may not translate to lower capability hardware on exploration missions. Due to limited volume on exploration vehicles, future Artemis missions to the Lunar surface will not have similar exercise hardware capabilities as ISS. This may alter the effectiveness of hardware to provide adequate physiological stress on bodily systems allowing for adaptations to maintain aerobic capacity, strength, and bone density. Thus, it will be important to understand the exercise responses of current ISS countermeasures to develop individualized exercise prescriptions that minimize aerobic and muscular risks, accounting for the large variability of responses among crewmembers. Newer exploration exercise hardware is currently being evaluated that is more compact (i.e., E4D and Orion Flywheel) and will require careful evaluation of the hardware on the stressor (i.e., metabolic rate, oxygen uptake, and heart rate work relationships, and force plate load profiles) needed the human body to protect and maintain crew health and performance. Moreover, exercise responses on the hardware need careful evaluation on the chronic adaptations. Lastly, in-flight evaluation of hardware exercise response may differ in 0-g or partial-g compared to 1-g. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that the stress on the body will be the same in each environment. Understanding this has a direct impact on exercise prescriptions. This document provides an overview of key scientific investigations that have been conducted before, during, and after human space flight missions, as well as from human ground-based analog studies that contribute to the evidence base on changes in aerobic capacity and muscle mass, strength, and endurance. Additional data from rodent and nonhuman primate experiments of skeletal muscle unloading completed during space flight or ground-based flight-simulations provide supportive information about this risk topic. Most importantly, a recent, large dataset from long-duration ISS crew has been added to give improved insight into the variability of exercise response of crew, demonstrating that a large portion of the crew population return to Earth with greater than 10-20% loss of aerobic capacity and muscle strength and endurance. Data from human space flight and ground-based studies are narrowing in on the required exercise paradigms but thus far still provide an incomplete answer to an effective approach for maintaining skeletal muscle function and aerobic fitness of all human space travelers. Finally, the relationship of this risk topic to various space flight operational scenarios is examined and discussed.

Eric Rivas↗

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

Evaluation of Aerobic Standards for Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

As NASA prepares to return to the Moon, astronauts will need to be physically primed to successfully execute Extravehicular Activities (EVA) on the Lunar surface. Compared to past Apollo missions, Artemis missions will include EVAs of increased physical demand, frequency, intensity, and duration, thus requiring adequate fitness to successfully and safely complete mission objectives. The physical demand associated with partial gravity (g) EVAs on the Moon is expected to be greater compared to microgravity EVAs based on initial workload estimation. Currently, aerobic fitness standards for partial g EVAs are not well supported by high-fidelity data and require further research for establishing standards to protect crew health and performance during Lunar surface missions. Therefore, the aim of this investigation is to characterize metabolic data from Lunar analog simulations and in-flight crew population aerobic capacity data to validate the current NASA 3001 standard for celestial partial g aerobic fitness (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min).

Nicole Strock↗

Polarization Performance Simulation for the GeoXO Atmospheric Composition Instrument: NO2 Retrieval Impacts

NOAA's Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) constellation will continue and expand on the capabilities of the current generation of geostationary satellite systems to support US weather, ocean, atmosphere, and climate operations. It is planned to consist of a dedicated atmospheric composition instrument (ACX) to support air quality forecasting and monitoring by providing capabilities similar to missions such as TEMPO (Tropospheric Emission: Monitoring Pollution), currently planned to launch in 2023, as well as OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument), and GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) currently in operation. As the early phases of ACX development are progressing, design trade-offs are being considered to understand the relationship between instrument design choices and trace gas retrieval impacts. Some of these choices will affect the instrument polarization sensitivity (PS), which can have radiometric impacts on environmental satellite observations. We conducted a study to investigate how such radiometric impacts can affect NO2 retrievals by exploring their sensitivities to time of day, location, and scene type with an ACX instrument model that incorporates PS. The study addresses the basic steps of operational NO2 retrievals: the spectral fitting step and the conversion of slant column to vertical column via the air mass factor (AMF). The spectral fitting step was performed by generating at-sensor radiance from a clear-sky scene with a known NO2 amount, the application of an instrument model including both instrument PS and noise, and a physical retrieval. The spectral fitting step was found to mitigate the impacts of instrument PS. The AMF-related step was considered for clear-sky and partially cloudy scenes, for which instrument PS can lead to errors in interpreting the cloud content, propagating to AMF errors and finally to NO2 retrieval errors. For this step, the NO2 retrieval impacts were small but non-negligible for high NO2 amounts; we estimated that a typical high NO2 amount can cause a maximum retrieval error of 0.25×1015 molec. cm−2 for a PS of 5 %. These simulation capabilities were designed to aid in the development of a GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument that will improve our ability to monitor and understand the Earth's atmosphere.

Aaron Pearlman↗

JWST Observations of the Enigmatic Y Dwarf WISE 1828+2650: I. Limits to a Binary Companion

The Y-dwarf WISE 1828+2650 is one of the coldest known Brown Dwarfs with an effective temperature of ~300 K. Located at a distance of just 10 pc, previous model-based estimates suggest WISE 1828+2650 has a mass of ~5-10 M J , making it a valuable laboratory for understanding the formation, evolution and physical characteristics of gas giant planets. However, previous photometry and spectroscopy have presented a puzzle with the near-impossibility of simultaneously fitting both the short (0.9-2.0 μm) and long wavelength (3-5 μm) data. A potential solution to this problem has been the suggestion that WISE 1828+2650 is a binary system whose composite spectrum might provide a better match to the data. Alternatively, new models being developed to fit JWST/NIRSpec and MIRI spectroscopy might provide new insights. This article describes JWST/NIRCam observations of WISE 1828+2650 in 6 filters to address the binarity question and to provide new photometry to be used in model fitting. We also report Adaptive Optics imaging with the Keck 10 m telescope. We find no evidence for multiplicity for a companion beyond 0.5 AU with either JWST or Keck. Companion articles will present low and high resolution spectra of WISE 1828 obtained with both NIRSpec and MIRI.

Infrared spectroscopy↗

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