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Bayesian model averaging for analysis of lattice field theory results

Statistical modeling is a key component in the extraction of physical results from lattice field theory calculations. Although the general models used are often strongly motivated by physics, many model variations can frequently be considered for the same lattice data. Model averaging, which amounts to a probability-weighted average over all model variations, can incorporate systematic errors associated with model choice without being overly conservative. We discuss the framework of model averaging from the perspective of Bayesian statistics, and give useful formulae and approximations for the particular case of least-squares fitting, commonly used in modeling lattice results. In addition, we frame the common problem of data subset selection (e.g. choice of minimum and maximum time separation for fitting a two-point correlation function) as a model selection problem and study model averaging as a straightforward alternative to manual selection of fit ranges. Numerical examples involving both mock and real lattice data are given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Signals of primordial black holes at gravitational wave interferometers

Primordial black holes (PBHs) can form as a result of primordial scalar perturbations at small scales. This PBH formation scenario has associated gravitational wave (GW) signatures from second-order GWs induced by the primordial curvature perturbation, and from GWs produced during an early PBH dominated era. We investigate the ability of next generation GW experiments, including BBO, LISA, and CE, to probe this PBH formation scenario in a wide mass range. Measuring the stochastic GW background with GW observatories can constrain the allowed parameter space of PBHs for masses 10 9 – 10 27 g. We also discuss possible GW sources from an unconstrained region where light PBHs (< 10 9 g) temporarily dominate the energy density of the universe before evaporating. Here we show how PBH formation impacts the reach of GW observatories to the primordial power spectrum and provide constraints implied by existing PBH bounds.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Tidal disruption of solitons in self-interacting ultralight axion dark matter

We report ultralight axions (ULAs) are promising dark matter candidates that can have a distinct impact on the formation and evolution of structure on nonlinear scales relative to the cold, collisionless dark matter (CDM) paradigm. However, most studies of structure formation in ULA models do not include the effects of self-interactions, which are expected to arise generically. Here, we study how the tidal evolution of solitons is affected by ULA self-interaction strength and sign. Specifically, using the pseudospectral solver UltraDark.jl, we simulate the tidal disruption of self-interacting solitonic cores as they orbit a 10 11 M ⊙ Navarro-Frenk-White CDM host halo potential for a range of orbital parameters, assuming a fiducial ULA particle mass of 10 -22 eV . We find that repulsive (attractive) self-interactions significantly accelerate (decelerate) soliton tidal disruption. We also identify a degeneracy between the self-interaction strength and soliton mass that determines the efficiency of tidal disruption, such that disruption timescales are affected at the ~ 50 % level for variations in the dimensionless ULA self-coupling from λ = -10 -92 to λ = 10 -92 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mass-induced confinement near the sill of the conformal window

We revisit standard arguments for hyperscaling of the spectrum when a nonzero fermion mass is introduced to a gauge-fermion theory which is conformal in the infrared limit. With some general assumptions, we argue that the induced confinement scale will be significantly enhanced near the edge of the conformal to confining transition. This enhancement can allow for the fermion mass to be arbitrarily small compared to the confinement scale. This scale separation may allow for apparent spontaneous breaking of chiral symmetry within the conformal window, which may be of interest for construction of dilaton effective field theories in this regime.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

𝐷-meson semileptonic decays to pseudoscalars from four-flavor lattice QCD

We present lattice-QCD calculations of the hadronic form factors for the semileptonic decays D → πℓν, D → Kℓν, and D s → Kℓν. Our calculation uses the highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) action for all valence and sea quarks and includes N f = 2 + 1 + 1 MILC ensembles with lattice spacings ranging from a ≈ 0.12 fm down to 0.042 fm. At most lattice spacings, an ensemble with physical-mass light quarks is included. The HISQ action allows all the quarks to be treated with the same relativistic light-quark action, allowing for nonperturbative renormalization using partial conservation of the vector current. We combine our results with experimental measurements of the differential decay rates to determine |V cd | D → π = 0.2238(11) Expt (15) QCD (04) EW (02) SIB [22] QED and |V cs | D → K = 0.9589 (23) Expt (40) QCD (15) EW (05) SIB [95] QED . This result for |V cd | is the most precise to date, with a lattice-QCD error that is, for the first time for the semileptonic extraction, at the same level as the experimental error. Using recent measurements from BES III, we also give the first-ever determination of |V cd | D s → K = 0.258(15) Expt (01) QCD [03] QED from D s → Klν. Our results also furnish new Standard Model calculations of the lepton flavor universality ratios $R$$^{D → π}_{μ/e}$ = 0.98671(17) QCD [500] QED , $R$$^{D → π}_{μ/e}$ = 0.97606(16) QCD [500] QED , and $R$$^{D → π}_{μ/e}$ = 0.98099(10) QCD [500] QED , which are consistent within 2σ with experimental measurements. Our extractions of |V cd | and |V cs |, when combined with a value for |V cb |, provide the most precise test of second-row Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa unitarity, finding agreement with unitarity at the level of one standard deviation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Light-quark connected intermediate-window contributions to the muon 𝑔 − 2 hadronic vacuum polarization from lattice QCD

We present a lattice-QCD calculation of the light-quark connected contribution to window observables associated with the leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a^{HVP,LO}_μ$. We employ the MILC Collaboration’s isospin-symmetric QCD gauge-field ensembles, which contain four flavors of dynamical highly improved staggered quarks with four lattice spacings between $a ≈ 0.06-0.15$ fm and close-to-physical quark masses. We consider several effective-field-theory-based schemes for finite volume and other lattice corrections and combine the results via Bayesian model averaging to obtain robust estimates of the associated systematic uncertainties. After unblinding, our final results for the intermediate and "W2" windows are $a^{U,W}_μ$(conn) = 206.6(1.0) x 10 -10 and $a^{U,W2}_μ$ (conn) = 100.7(3.2) x 10 -10 , respectively

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Infrared fixed point of the SU(3) gauge theory with 𝑁 𝑓 = 10 flavors

We use lattice simulations and the continuous renormalization group method, based on the gradient flow, to calculate the 𝛽 function and anomalous dimensions of the SU(3) gauge theory with 𝑁 𝑓 = 10 flavors of fermions in the fundamental representation. We employ several improvements to extend the range of available renormalized couplings, including the addition of heavy Pauli-Villars bosons to reduce cutoff effects and the combination of a range of gradient flow transformations. While in the weak coupling regime our result is consistent with those of earlier studies, our techniques allow us to study the system at much stronger couplings than previously possible. We find that the renormalization group 𝛽 function develops a zero, corresponding to an infrared-stable fixed point, at gradient-flow coupling 𝑔 2 = 15.0⁢(5). We also determine the mass and tensor anomalous dimensions: At the fixed point we find 𝛾 𝑚 ≃0.6, suggesting that this system might be deep inside the conformal window.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Improved information criteria for Bayesian model averaging in lattice field theory

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. Here, we revisit the derivation of estimators for these model weights. Use of the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a starting point leads naturally to a number of alternative information criteria suitable for Bayesian model weight estimation. We explore three such criteria, known to the statistics literature before, in detail: a Bayesian analog of the Akaike information criterion which we call the BAIC, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the posterior predictive information criterion (PPIC). We compare the use of these information criteria in numerical analysis problems common in lattice field theory calculations. We find that the PPIC has the most appealing theoretical properties and can give the best performance in terms of model-averaging uncertainty, particularly in the presence of noisy data, while the BAIC is a simple and reliable alternative.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Single phonon detection for dark matter via quantum evaporation and sensing of He 3

Dark matter is five times more abundant than ordinary visible matter in our Universe. While laboratory searches hunting for dark matter have traditionally focused on the electroweak scale, theories of low mass hidden sectors motivate new detection techniques. Extending these searches to lower mass ranges, well below 1 GeV / c 2 , poses new challenges as rare interactions with standard model matter transfer progressively less energy to electrons and nuclei in detectors. Here, we propose an approach based on phonon-assisted quantum evaporation combined with quantum sensors for detection of desorption events via tracking of spin coherence. The intent of our proposed dark matter sensors is to extend the parameter space to energy transfers in rare interactions to as low as a few meV for detection of dark matter particles in the keV / c 2 mass range. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

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