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Inverse estimation

Inverse estimation technique for problems in experimental design

PROBLEM SOLVING↗

Skylab D024 thermal control coatings and polymeric films experiment

The Skylab D024 Thermal Control Coatings and Polymeric Films Experiment was designed to determine the effects of the external Skylab space environment on the performance and properties of a wide variety of selected thermal control coatings and polymeric films. Three duplicate sets of thermal control coatings and polymeric films were exposed to the Skylab space environment for varying periods of time during the mission. The specimens were retrieved by the astronauts during extravehicular activities (EVA) and placed in hermetically sealed return containers, recovered, and returned to the Wright Laboratory/Materials Laboratory/WPAFB, Ohio for analysis and evaluation. Postflight analysis of the three sets of recovered thermal control coatings indicated that measured changes in specimen thermo-optical properties were due to a combination of excessive contamination and solar degradation of the contaminant layer. The degree of degradation experienced over-rode, obscured, and compromised the measurement of the degradation of the substrate coatings themselves. Results of the analysis of the effects of exposure on the polymeric films and the contamination observed are also presented. The D024 results were used in the design of the LDEF M0003-5 Thermal Control Materials Experiment. The results are presented here to call to the attention of the many other LDEF experimenters the wealth of directly related, low earth orbit, space environmental exposure data that is available from the ten or more separate experiments that were conducted during the Skylab mission. Results of these experiments offer data on the results of low altitude space exposure on materials recovered from space with exposure longer than typical STS experiments for comparison with the LDEF results.

Lehn, William L.↗

Models and Measurements Intercomparison 2

Models and Measurement Intercomparison II (MM II) summarizes the intercomparison of results from model simulations and observations of stratospheric species. Representatives from twenty-three modeling groups using twenty-nine models participated in these MM II exercises between 1996 and 1999. Twelve of the models were two- dimensional zonal-mean models while seventeen were three-dimensional models. This was an international effort as seven were from outside the United States. Six transport experiments and five chemistry experiments were designed for various models. Models participating in the transport experiments performed simulations of chemically inert tracers providing diagnostics for transport. The chemistry experiments involved simulating the distributions of chemically active trace cases including ozone. The model run conditions for dynamics and chemistry were prescribed in order to minimize the factors that caused differences in the models. The report includes a critical review of the results by the participants and a discussion of the causes of differences between modeled and measured results as well as between results from different models, A sizable effort went into preparation of the database of the observations. This included a new climatology for ozone. The report should help in evaluating the results from various predictive models for assessing humankind perturbations of the stratosphere.

Park, Jae H.↗

MISSE Results Used for RF Plasma Ground Testing-To-Space-Exposure Correlation for Coated Kapton

The ability to predict the durability of materials in the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment by exposing them in ground-based facilities is important because one can achieve test results sooner, expose more types of materials, and do it much more cost effectively than to test them in flight. However, flight experiments to determine the durability of groups or classes of materials that behave similarly are needed in order to provide correlations of how much time in ground-based facilities represents certain durations in LEO for the material type of interest. An experiment was designed and flown on the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) 2 (3.95 yr in LEO) and MISSE 4 (1.04 yr in LEO) in order to develop this type of correlation between ground-based RF plasma exposure and LEO exposure for coated Kapton. The experiment consisted of a sample of Kapton H (DuPont) polyimide coated with 1300 of silicon dioxide by Sheldahl, Inc. The samples were exposed to atomic oxygen in a radio frequency (RF) generated atomic oxygen plasma. Mass change was measured for the samples and then the same samples were exposed in flight on MISSE and the mass change was again recorded post-flight. After documentation, the samples were exposed again in the ground-based RF plasma in order to determine if the erosion would be the same as it had been in the same facility pre-flight which would indicate whether or not the sample had been damaged during flight and if the defects on the surface were those that were there preflight. The slopes of the mass change versus fluence plots were then used to develop a correlation factor that can be used to help predict the durability of coated Kapton in ground-based isotropic atomic oxygen plasma systems. This paper describes the experiment and presents the correlation factor results.

Miller, Sharon K. R.↗

Augmenting Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling with Graph Theory

It has been well documented that decisions made in the early stages of Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design commit up to 80% of total Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) while engineers know the least about the product they are designing [1]. Once within Preliminary and Detailed design however, making changes to the design becomes far more difficult to enact in both cost and schedule. Primarily this has been due to a lack of detailed data usually uncovered later during the Preliminary and Detailed design phases. In our current budget-constrained environment, making decisions within Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design which minimize LCC while meeting requirements is paramount to a program's success. Within the arena of launch vehicle design, optimizing the ascent trajectory is critical for minimizing the costs present within such concerns as propellant, aerodynamic, aeroheating, and acceleration loads while meeting requirements such as payload delivered to a desired orbit. In order to optimize the vehicle design its constraints and requirements must be known, however as the design cycle proceeds it is all but inevitable that the conditions will change. Upon that change, the previously optimized trajectory may no longer be optimal, or meet design requirements. The current paradigm for adjusting to these updates is generating point solutions for every change in the design's requirements [2]. This can be a tedious, time-consuming task as changes in virtually any piece of a launch vehicle's design can have a disproportionately large effect on the ascent trajectory, as the solution space of the trajectory optimization problem is both non-linear and multimodal [3]. In addition, an industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), requires an expert analyst to produce simulated trajectories that are feasible and optimal [4]. In a previous publication the authors presented a method for combatting these challenges [5]. In order to bring more detailed information into Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design, knowledge of the effects originating from changes to the vehicle must be calculated. In order to do this, a model capable of quantitatively describing any vehicle within the entire design space under consideration must be constructed. This model must be based upon analysis of acceptable fidelity, which in this work comes from POST. Design space interrogation can be achieved with surrogate modeling, a parametric, polynomial equation representing a tool. A surrogate model must be informed by data from the tool with enough points to represent the solution space for the chosen number of variables with an acceptable level of error. Therefore, Design Of Experiments (DOE) is used to select points within the design space to maximize information gained on the design space while minimizing number of data points required. To represent a design space with a non-trivial number of variable parameters the number of points required still represent an amount of work which would take an inordinate amount of time via the current paradigm of manual analysis, and so an automated method was developed. The best practices of expert trajectory analysts working within NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) were implemented within a tool called multiPOST. These practices include how to use the output data from a previous run of POST to inform the next, determining whether a trajectory solution is feasible from a real-world perspective, and how to handle program execution errors. The tool was then augmented with multiprocessing capability to enable analysis on multiple trajectories simultaneously, allowing throughput to scale with available computational resources. In this update to the previous work the authors discuss issues with the method and solutions.

Patrick D Dees↗

Safety Considerations for Advanced Material Irradiation at the Advanced Test Reactor

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a light water reactor with aluminum-clad driver fuel. A primary mission of the ATR is to support the next generation of nuclear reactors. This support necessarily requires irradiation of advanced materials such as sodium, fuel salts, and metal eutectics. Irradiation of advanced materials in the ATR environment presents a challenge when completing accident analyses and demonstrating compliance to the Safety Analysis Report (SAR). Many advanced materials have the possibility to react with the ATR protective barriers such as the cladding or primary coolant system (PCS) boundary during postulated accident scenarios. Further, molten fuel experiments fall outside of the standard regulatory framework for dose consequence analyses. ATR is currently developing new safety analysis methods to support irradiation of advanced materials. The primary considerations for this development are 1) experiment containment design requirements, 2) primary coolant system response to an experiment containment failure, and 3) dose analyses for molten fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Safety Considerations for Advanced Material Irradiation at the ATR

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a light water reactor with aluminum-clad driver fuel. A primary mission of the ATR is to support the next generation of nuclear reactors. This support necessarily requires irradiation of advanced materials such as sodium, fuel salts, and metal eutectics. Irradiation of advanced materials in the ATR environment presents a challenge when completing accident analyses and demonstrating compliance to the Safety Analysis Report (SAR). Many advanced materials have the possibility to react with the ATR protective barriers such as the cladding or primary coolant system (PCS) boundary during postulated accident scenarios. Further, molten fuel experiments fall outside of the standard regulatory framework for dose consequence analyses. ATR is currently developing new safety analysis methods to support irradiation of advanced materials. The primary considerations for this development are 1) experiment containment design requirements, 2) primary coolant system response to an experiment containment failure, and 3) dose analyses for molten fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Stereo Imaging Velocimetry of Mixing Driven by Buoyancy Induced Flow Fields

Mixing of two fluids generated by steady and particularly g-jitter acceleration is fundamental towards the understanding of transport phenomena in a microgravity environment. We propose to carry out flight and ground-based experiments to quantify flow fields due to g-jitter type of accelerations using Stereo Imaging Velocimetry (SIV), and measure the concentration field using laser fluorescence. The understanding of the effects of g-jitter on transport phenomena is of great practical interest to the microgravity community and impacts the design of experiments for the Space Shuttle as well as the International Space Station. The aim of our proposed research is to provide quantitative data to the community on the effects of g-jitter on flow fields due to mixing induced by buoyancy forces. The fundamental phenomenon of mixing occurs in a broad range of materials processing encompassing the growth of opto-electronic materials and semiconductors, (by directional freezing and physical vapor transport), to solution and protein crystal growth. In materials processing of these systems, crystal homogeneity, which is affected by the solutal field distribution, is one of the major issues. The understanding of fluid mixing driven by buoyancy forces, besides its importance as a topic in fundamental science, can contribute towards the understanding of how solutal fields behave under various body forces. The body forces of interest are steady acceleration and g-jitter acceleration as in a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. Since control of the body force is important, the flight experiment will be carried out on a tunable microgravity vibration isolation mount, which will permit us to precisely input the desired forcing function to simulate a range of body forces. To that end, we propose to design a flight experiment that can only be carried out under microgravity conditions to fully exploit the effects of various body forces on fluid mixing. Recent flight experiments, by the P.I. through collaboration with the Canadian Space Agency (STS-85, August 1997), aimed at determining the stability of the interface between two miscible liquids inside an enclosure show that a long liquid column (5 cm) under microgravity isolation conditions can be stable, i.e. the interface remains sharp and vertical over a short time scale; thus transport occurs by molecular mass diffusion. On the other hand, when the two liquids were excited from a controlled vibration source (Microgravity Vibration Isolation Mount) two to four mode large amplitude quasi-stationary waves were observed. The data was limited to CCD recording of the dynamics of the interface between the two fluids. We propose to carry out flight experiments to quantify the dynamics of the flow field using Stereo Imaging Velocimetry and measure the concentration field using laser fluorescence. The results will serve as a basis to understand effects of g-jitter on transport phenomena, in this case mass diffusion. As the measurement of the kinematics of the flow field will shed light on the instability mechanism. The research will allow measurement of the flow field in microgravity environment to prove two hypotheses: (1) Maxwell's hypothesis: finite convection always exists in diffusing systems, and (2) Quasi-stationary waves inside a bounded enclosure in a microgravity environment is generated by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability; resonance of the interface which produces incipient mixing is due to Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The first hypothesis can be used as a benchmark experiment to illustrate diffusive mixing. The second hypothesis will lead to the understanding of g-jitter effects on buoyancy driven flow fields which occur in many situations involving materials processing, and other basic fluid physics phenomena. In addition, the second hypothesis will also provide insight in how Rayleigh-Taylor and Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities propagate concentration fronts during mixing. Measurement of the flow field using SIV is important because it is the flow field which causes instability at the interface between the two fluids. Mixing driven by buoyancy induced flow fields will be addressed both experimentally and computationally. The experimental effort will address the kinematics of mixing: stretching, transport and chaos. Quantification of the mechanisms of mixing will consists of measuring the flow field using the SIV system at Glenn and capturing the dynamics of the interface, to measure mass transport, using a CCD camera. These experiments will be carried out within the framework of Earth's gravity and g-jitter microgravity acceleration as in a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. The g-jitter will be induced and controlled using a tunable vibration isolation platform to isolate against vibration as well as input periodic and random vibration to the system. The parametric range of the microgravity experiment will be extended from the experiments on STS-85 to investigate higher mode quasi-stationary waves (8 to 12), as well as resonance regions which leads to chaos and turbulence. Ground-based experiments will focus on effects of vibration on stably stratified fluid layers in order to scale for possible scenarios in a microgravity environment. These vibrations will be subjected perpendicular to the concentration field on the ground since the parallel case can only be carried out in a microgravity environment. The concept of dynamical similarity will be applied to tune the experiments as closely as possible to a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. The computational effort will take advantage of the Computational Laboratory at Glenn to corroborate the experimental findings with predictions of the dynamics of the flow field using the codes FLUENT (finite difference based) and FIDAP (finite element based). We will investigate two important cases, single-fluid model to address dilute systems with negligible jump in viscosity and the more general two-fluid model which accounts for finite jump in viscosity. Apart from its microgravity relevance, this experiment is well suited to study dynamics in nonlinear systems.

Duval, W. M. B.↗

EUCLID: Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data [Slides]

EUCLID will design validation experiments optimized to resolve compensating errors and adjust nuclear data to experiments. A big part of the success of the EUCLID proposal was due to previous work supported by NCSP (MCNP, nuclear data, and NCERC capabilities). The work performed under EUCLID will similarly benefit the NCSP mission. It will lead to new MCNP capabilities, improved nuclear data and nuclear data capabilities, and new methodology and tools that will have large impact on future NCERC experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Computational design aspects of a NASP nozzle/afterbody experiment

This paper highlights the influence of computational methods on design of a wind tunnel experiment which generically models the nozzle/afterbody flow field of the proposed National Aerospace Plane. The rectangular slot nozzle plume flow field is computed using a three-dimensional, upwind, implicit Navier-Stokes solver. Freestream Mach numbers of 5.3, 7.3, and 10 are investigated. Two-dimensional parametric studies of various Mach numbers, pressure ratios, and ramp angles are used to help determine model loads and afterbody ramp angle and length. It was found that the center of pressure on the ramp occurs at nearly the same location for all ramp angles and test conditions computed. Also, to prevent air liquefaction, it is suggested that a helium-air mixture be used as the jet gas for the highest Mach number test case.

Ruffin, Stephen M.↗

Robust A-Optimal Experimental Design for Sensor Placement in Bayesian Linear Inverse Problems

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a predefined utility function that is formulated in terms of the elements of an inverse problem, an example being optimal sensor placement for parameter identification. The state-of-the-art algorithmic approaches following this simple formulation generally overlook misspecification of the elements of the inverse problem, such as the prior or the measurement uncertainties. This work presents an efficient algorithmic approach for designing optimal experimental design schemes for Bayesian linear inverse problems such that the optimal design is robust to misspecification of elements of the inverse problem. Specifically, we consider a worst-case scenario approach for the uncertain or misspecified parameters, formulate robust objectives, and propose an algorithmic approach for optimizing such objectives. Furthermore, both relaxation and stochastic solution approaches are discussed with detailed analysis and insight into the interpretation of the problem and the proposed algorithmic approach. Extensive numerical experiments to validate and analyze the proposed approach are carried out for sensor placement in a parameter identification problem.

Bayesian inverse problems↗

The FIFE information system

A description is given of the FIFE (First ISLSCP Field Experiment) information system, which was developed to serve FIFE investigators as a tool for designing the experiment and for organizing and manipulating the complex data set. Fulfilling these functions on an experiment-driven timeline led to abandoning the classical sequential development paradigm of software engineering in favor of a more responsive and broadly based approach. The design, development, and operation of the information system supporting the experiment had to be flexible and under direct day-to-day control of scientist/users. Because of the organization around scientific requirements, the system was able to incorporate diverse data types in a systematic way as they became available, to add scientific rigor by identifying data gaps at an early stage, and to provide real-time quality assurance. These factors are important for designing and building future databases and long-term information systems to support interdisciplinary scientific research.

Strebel, Donald E.↗

Assessment of the BISON Metallic Fuel Performance Models

The US Department of Energy is leading a project to design and construct a fast spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR). The BISON nuclear fuel performance code will be used to model VTR driver fuel, including looking at the effects of differences between the VTR driver fuel element design and the legacy fuel designs and experiments on which it is based. Simulations will be conducted to help determine whether the design’s behavior and performance are properly understood and to assess the margins to cladding failure and fuel melting relative to those predicted for past metallic fuel experiments. These predictions are expected to streamline VTR design and operation by helping inform the VTR driver fuel element design and by providing supplemental information for the fuel design safety basis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of display design and command usage guidelines for Spacelab experiment computer applications

Individual Spacelab experiments are responsible for developing their CRT display formats and interactive command scenarios for payload crew monitoring and control of experiment operations via the Spacelab Data Display System (DDS). In order to enhance crew training and flight operations, it was important to establish some standardization of the crew/experiment interface among different experiments by providing standard methods and techniques for data presentation and experiment commanding via the DDS. In order to establish optimum usage guidelines for the Spacelab DDS, the capabilities and limitations of the hardware and Experiment Computer Operating System design had to be considered. Since the operating system software and hardware design had already been established, the Display and Command Usage Guidelines were constrained to the capabilities of the existing system design. Empirical evaluations were conducted on a DDS simulator to determine optimum operator/system interface utilization of the system capabilities. Display parameters such as information location, display density, data organization, status presentation and dynamic update effects were evaluated in terms of response times and error rates.

Dodson, D. W.↗

Thermal design support for the Explorer gamma ray experiment telescope

The results of a thermal design definition study for the GSFC Explorer Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) were documented. A thermal computer model of EGRET with 241 nodes was developed and used to analyze the thermal performance of the experiment for a range of orbits, payload orientations and internal power dissipations. The recommended thermal design utilizes a small radiator with an area of 1.78 square foot on the anti-sun side of the mission adaptor and circumferential heat pipes on the interior of the same adaptor to transfer heat from the electronics compartments to the single radiator. Fifty watts of thermostatically controlled heater power are used to control the temperature level to 10 C + or - 20 C inside the insulated dome structure.

Almgren, D. W.↗

Kerr Reservoir LANDSAT experiment analysis for November 1980

An experiment was conducted on the waters of Kerr Reservoir to determine if reliable algorithms could be developed that relate water quality parameters to remotely sensed data. LANDSAT radiance data was used in the analysis since it is readily available and covers the area of interest on a regular basis. By properly designing the experiment, many of the unwanted variations due to atmosphere, solar, and hydraulic changes were minimized. The algorithms developed were constrained to satisfy rigorous statistical criteria before they could be considered dependable in predicting water quality parameters. A complete mix of different types of algorithms using the LANDSAT bands was generated to provide a thorough understanding of the relationships among the data involved. The study demonstrated that for the ranges measured, the algorithms that satisfactorily represented the data are mostly linear and only require a maximum of one or two LANDSAT bands. Rationing techniques did not improve the results since the initial design of the experiment minimized the errors that this procedure is effective against. Good correlations were established for inorganic suspended solids, iron, turbidity, and secchi depth.

Lecroy, S. R.↗

Electrical design of the flexible imaging diffraction diagnostic for laser experiments (FIDDLE) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF)—Requirements, design, and performance

The Flexible Imaging Diffraction Diagnostic for Laser Experiments (FIDDLE) is a newly developed diagnostic for imaging time resolved diffraction in experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). It builds on the successes of its predecessor, the Gated Diffraction Development Diagnostic (G3D). The FIDDLE was designed to support eight Daedalus version 2 sensors (six more hCMOS sensors than any other hCMOS-based diagnostic in NIF to date) and an integrated streak camera. We will review the electrical requirements, design, and performance of the electrical subsystems that were created to support this large number of cameras in the FIDDLE. The analysis of the data that the FIDDLE is intended to collect relies heavily on the accurate and well-understood timing of each sensor. We report camera-to-camera timing jitter of less than 100 ps rms and sensor integration times of 2.2 ns FWHM in 2-2 timing mode. Additionally, diffraction experiments on the NIF produce electric fields (EMI) on the order of 1 kV/m, which have been observed to negatively impact the performance of some electrical components of the FIDDLE. We report on the results of testing hCMOS camera electronics in a similar EMI environment generated in an offline lab. In addition, we also summarize the use of a novel approach to using a vector network analyzer as an EMI leak detector to understand and reduce the negative impacts of EMI on the FIDDLE.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Thermal Energy Storage Flight Experiment in Microgravity

The Thermal Energy Storage Flight Experiment was designed to characterize void shape and location in LiF-based phase change materials in different energy storage configurations representative of advanced solar dynamic systems. Experiment goals and payload design are described in outline and graphic form.

Namkoong, David↗

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