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A tool for manual endmember selection and spectral unmixing

Sampling a continuous radiance spectrum in many narrow contiguous spectral bands results in a high covariance between the bands. Hence, the true dimensionality of imaging spectrometer data is not determined by the number of spectral bands, but by the number of spectrally unique signatures whose mixtures reproduce the spectral variance observed in an image. Methods to unmix high dimensional multispectral data use principal components analysis to reduce the dimensionality. The variance of the spectral data is modeled as a linear combination of a finite set of endmembers in the space of the eigen-vectors that account for most of the variance. The number and characteristics of these endmembers are determined not only by the number and characteristics of the spectrally unique materials on the surface but also by processes (e.g., illumination, atmospheric scattering and absorption) affecting the signal received by the sensor. Selection of endmember spectra has typically been from a library. However, since most libraries are incomplete and do not account for the processes mentioned above, we have devised a computer display that allows researchers to explore interactively the eigenvector space of a representative and mean-corrected subset of the image data in search of extreme spectra to designate as endmembers. This display, which is based on parallel coordinates, is unique in the area of multidimensional visualization in that it includes not only a passive view of higher dimensional data but also the capability to interact and move geometrical objects in higher dimensional spaces.

Bateson, C. Ann↗

Examination of Multiple Lithologies Within the Primitive Ordinary Chondrite NWA 5717

Northwest Africa 5717 is a primitive (subtype 3.05) ungrouped ordinary chondrite which contains two apparently distinct lithologies. In large cut meteorite slabs, the darker of these, lithology A, looks to host the second, much lighter in color, lithology B (upper left, Fig. 1). The nature of the boundary between the two is uncertain, ranging from abrupt to gradational and not always following particle boundaries. The distinction between the lithologies, beyond the obvious color differences, has been supported by a discrepancy in oxygen isotopes and an incongruity in the magnesium contents of chondrule olivine. Here, quantitative textural analysis and mineralogical methods have been used to investigate the two apparent lithologies within NWA 5717. Olivine grains contained in a thin section from NWA 7402, thought to be paired to 5717, were also measured to re-examine the distinct compositional range among the light and dark areas. Procedure: Particles from a high-resolution mosaic image of a roughly 13x15cm slice of NWA 5717 were traced in Adobe Photoshop. Due to the large size of the sample, visually representative regions of each lithology were chosen to be analyzed. The resulting layers of digitized particles were imported into ImageJ, which was used to measure their area, along with the axes, the angle from horizontal, and the centroid coordinates of ellipses fitted to each particle following the approach. Resulting 2D pixel areas were converted to spherical diameters employing the unfolding algorithm, which outputs a 3D particle size distribution based on digitized 2D size frequency data. Spatstat was used to create kernel density plots of the centroid coordinates for each region. X-ray compositional maps, microprobe analyses, and Mossbauer spectroscopy was conducted on a thin section of NWA 7402, tentatively paired to NWA 5717.

Cato, M. J.↗

Full field flow visualization and computer-aided velocity measurements in a bank of cylinders in a wind tunnel

The full field flow tracking (FFFT) method that is presented in this paper uses a laser-generated, mechanically strobed planar sheet of light, a low luminosity TV camera coupled with a long distance microscope, and a computer-controlled video recorder to study nonintrusively and qualitatively the flow structures in a bank of cylinders that are placed in a wind tunnel. This setup simulates an upscale version of the geometry of internal cooling passageways characteristic of small air-cooled radial turbines. The qualitative images supplied by the FFFT system are processed by means of a computer-integrated image quantification (CIIQ) method into quantitative information, trajectories and velocities, that describe the flow upstream of and within the bank of cylinders. The tracking method is Lagrangian in concept, and permits identification and tracking of the same particle, thus facilitating construction of time dependent trajectories and the calculation of true velocities and accelerations. The error analysis evaluates the accuracy with which the seed particles follow the flow and the errors incurred during the quantitative processing of the raw data derived from the FFFT/CIIQ method.

Braun, M. J.↗

Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

Non-NASA Center↗

Effect of altered sensory conditions on multivariate descriptors of human postural sway

Multivariate descriptors of sway were used to test whether altered sensory conditions result not only in changes in amount of sway but also in postural coordination. Eigenvalues and directions of eigenvectors of the covariance of shnk and hip angles were used as a set of multivariate descriptors. These quantities were measured in 14 healthy adult subjects performing the Sensory Organization test, which disrupts visual and somatosensory information used for spatial orientation. Multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis showed that resulting sway changes were at least bivariate in character, with visual and somatosensory conditions producing distinct changes in postural coordination. The most significant changes were found when somatosensory information was disrupted by sway-referencing of the support surface (P = 3.2 x 10(-10)). The resulting covariance measurements showed that subjects not only swayed more but also used increased hip motion analogous to the hip strategy. Disruption of vision, by either closing the eyes or sway-referencing the visual surround, also resulted in altered sway (P = 1.7 x 10(-10)), with proportionately more motion of the center of mass than with platform sway-referencing. As shown by discriminant analysis, an optimal univariate measure could explain at most 90% of the behavior due to altered sensory conditions. The remaining 10%, while smaller, are highly significant changes in posture control that depend on sensory conditions. The results imply that normal postural coordination of the trunk and legs requires both somatosensory and visual information and that each sensory modality makes a unique contribution to posture control. Descending postural commands are multivariate in nature, and the motion at each joint is affected uniquely by input from multiple sensors.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

In-Situ Nondestructive Evaluation of Kevlar(Registered Trademark)and Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composite Micromechanics for Improved Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Health Monitoring

NASA has been faced with recertification and life extension issues for epoxy-impregnated Kevlar 49 (K/Ep) and carbon (C/Ep) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) used in various systems on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station, respectively. Each COPV has varying criticality, damage and repair histories, time at pressure, and pressure cycles. COPVs are of particular concern due to the insidious and catastrophic burst-before-leak failure mode caused by stress rupture (SR) of the composite overwrap. SR life has been defined [1] as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress level(s), time at stress level(s), and associated environment. SR has none of the features of predictability associated with metal pressure vessels, such as crack geometry, growth rate and size, or other features that lend themselves to nondestructive evaluation (NDE). In essence, the variability or surprise factor associated with SR cannot be eliminated. C/Ep COPVs are also susceptible to impact damage that can lead to reduced burst pressure even when the amount of damage to the COPV is below the visual detection threshold [2], thus necessitating implementation of a mechanical damage control plan [1]. Last, COPVs can also fail prematurely due to material or design noncompliance. In each case (SR, impact or noncompliance), out-of-family behavior is expected leading to a higher probability of failure at a given stress, hence, greater uncertainty in performance. For these reasons, NASA has been actively engaged in research to develop NDE methods that can be used during post-manufacture qualification, in-service inspection, and in-situ structural health monitoring. Acoustic emission (AE) is one of the more promising NDE techniques for detecting and monitoring, in real-time, the strain energy release and corresponding stress-wave propagation produced by actively growing flaws and defects in composite materials [3,4,5,6,7,8]. To gain further insight into the mechanisms responsible for composite rupture, broadband modal acoustic emission analysis was used. Also, since AE data reduction proved to be very time consuming, specialized data reduction software was written to automate the process.

Waller, Jess↗

An Upgrade of the Aeroheating Software "MINIVER"

Many software packages assist engineers with performing flight vehicle analysis, but some of these packages have gone many years without updates or significant improvements to their workflows. One such software, known as MINIVER, is a powerful yet lightweight tool that is used for aeroheating analyses. However, it is an aging program that has not seen major improvements within the past decade. As part of a collaborative effort with Florida Institute of Technology, MINIVER has received a major user interface overhaul, a change in program language, and will be continually receiving updates to improve its capabilities. The user interface update includes a migration from a command-line interface to that of a graphical user interface supported in the Windows operating system. The organizational structure of the preprocessor has been transformed to clearly defined categories to provide ease of data entry. Helpful tools have been incorporated, including the ability to copy sections of cases as well as a generalized importer which aids in bulk data entry. A visual trajectory editor has been included, as well as a CAD Editor which allows the user to input simplified geometries in order to generate MINIVER cases in bulk. To demonstrate its continued effectiveness, a case involving the JAXA OREX flight vehicle will be included, providing comparisons to captured flight data as well as other computational solutions. The most recent upgrade effort incorporated the use of the CAD Editor, and current efforts are investigating methods to link MINIVER projects with SINDA/Fluint and Thermal Desktop.

Louderback, Pierce M.↗

Supporting Scientific Analysis within Collaborative Problem Solving Environments

Collaborative problem solving environments for scientists should contain the analysis tools the scientists require in addition to the remote collaboration tools used for general communication. Unfortunately, most scientific analysis tools have been designed for a "stand-alone mode" and cannot be easily modified to work well in a collaborative environment. This paper addresses the questions, "What features are desired in a scientific analysis tool contained within a collaborative environment?", "What are the tool design criteria needed to provide these features?", and "What support is required from the architecture to support these design criteria?." First, the features of scientific analysis tools that are important for effective analysis in collaborative environments are listed. Next, several design criteria for developing analysis tools that will provide these features are presented. Then requirements for the architecture to support these design criteria are listed. Sonic proposed architectures for collaborative problem solving environments are reviewed and their capabilities to support the specified design criteria are discussed. A deficiency in the most popular architecture for remote application sharing, the ITU T. 120 architecture, prevents it from supporting highly interactive, dynamic, high resolution graphics. To illustrate that the specified design criteria can provide a highly effective analysis tool within a collaborative problem solving environment, a scientific analysis tool that contains the specified design criteria has been integrated into a collaborative environment and tested for effectiveness. The tests were conducted in collaborations between remote sites in the US and between remote sites on different continents. The tests showed that the tool (a tool for the visual analysis of computer simulations of physics) was highly effective for both synchronous and asynchronous collaborative analyses. The important features provided by the tool (and made possible by the specified design criteria) are: 1. The tool provides highly interactive, dynamic, high resolution, 3D graphics. 2. All remote scientists can view the same dynamic, high resolution, 3D scenes of the analysis as the analysis is being conducted. 3. The responsiveness of the tool is nearly identical to the responsiveness of the tool in a stand-alone mode. 4. The scientists can transfer control of the analysis between themselves. 5. Any analysis session or segment of an analysis session, whether done individually or collaboratively, can be recorded and posted on the Web for other scientists or students to download and play in either a collaborative or individual mode. 6. The scientist or student who downloaded the session can, individually or collaboratively, modify or extend the session with his/her own "what if" analysis of the data and post his/her version of the analysis back onto the Web. 7. The peak network bandwidth used in the collaborative sessions is only 1K bit/second even though the scientists at all sites are viewing high resolution (1280 x 1024 pixels), dynamic, 3D scenes of the analysis. The links between the specified design criteria and these performance features are presented.

Watson, Velvin R.↗

Tests of a simple data merging algorithm for the GONG project

The GONG (Global Oscillation Network Group) project proposes to reduce the impact of diurnal variations on helioseismic measurements by making long-term observations of solar images from six sites placed around the globe. The sun will be observed nearly constantly for three years, resulting in the acquisition of l+ terabyte of image data. To use the solar network to maximum advantage, the images from the sites must be combined into a single time series to determine mode frequencies, amplitudes, and line widths. Initial versions of combined, i.e., merged, time series were made using a simple weighted average of data from different sites taken simultaneously. In order to accurately assess the impact of the data merge on the helioseismic measurements, a set of artificial solar disk images was made using a standard solar model and containing a well known set of oscillation modes and frequencies. This undegraded data set and data products computed from it were used to judge the relative merits of various data merging schemes. The artificial solar disk images were subjected to various instrumental and atmospheric degradations, dependent on site and time, in order to create a set of images simulating those likely to be taken at the site. The degraded artificial solar disk images for the six observing sites were combined in various ways to form merged time series of images and mode coefficients. Various forms of a weighted average were used, including an equally-weighted average, an average with weights dependent upon air mass and averages with weights dependent on various quality assurance parameters. Both the undegraded solar disk image time series and several time series made up of various combinations of the degraded solar disk images from the six sites were subjected to standard helioseismic measurement processing. This processing consisted of coordinate remapping, detrending, spherical harmonic transformation, computation of power series for the oscillation mode coefficients, and mode frequency identification. Visual and statistical evaluation of the merged data sets themselves and differences between the merged and undegraded data set shows good agreement between the two data sets. Some slight differences in image scale and registration appear between the undegraded data set and the various merged data sets. In the set of power series made from the mode coefficients of the merged data sets, some power leakage is observed into the background and into slightly lower l-value modes, especially at higher l-value mode frequencies. The results of the comparison of time series and mode oscillation frequencies of the undegraded data with those of the data merged using weighted averages indicate that, at least for p-mode solar oscillations, a weighted average of either the detrended remapped images or the mode coefficients gives good determination of the mode frequencies and adequate-to-good determination of the amplitudes and widths of the mode frequency lines. This conclusion is most advantageous to the analysis of the massive amounts of data to be received by the GONG network.

Williams, W. E.↗

A Upgrade of the Aeroheating Software "MINIVER"

Many software packages assist engineers with performing flight vehicle analysis, but some of these packages have gone many years without updates or significant improvements to their workflows. One such software package, known as MINIVER, is a powerful yet lightweight tool used for aeroheating analyses. However, it is an aging program that has not seen major improvements within the past decade. As part of a collaborative effort with the Florida Institute of Technology, MINIVER has received a major user interface overhaul, a change in program language, and will be continually receiving updates to improve its capabilities. The user interface update includes a migration from a command-line interface to that of a graphical user interface supported in the Windows operating system. The organizational structure of the pre-processor has been transformed to clearly defined categories to provide ease of data entry. Helpful tools have been incorporated, including the ability to copy sections of cases as well as a generalized importer which aids in bulk data entry. A visual trajectory editor has been included, as well as a CAD Editor which allows the user to input simplified geometries in order to generate MINIVER cases in bulk. To demonstrate its continued effectiveness, a case involving the JAXA OREX flight vehicle will be included, providing comparisons to captured flight data as well as other computational solutions. The most recent upgrade effort incorporated the use of the CAD Editor, and current efforts are investigating methods to link MINIVER projects with SINDA/Fluint and Thermal Desktop.

Louderback, Pierce↗

Real-World Testing of LiDAR-Inertial Based Navigation and Mapping for Precision Landing

The fusion of LiDAR and inertial measurements duringspacecraft descent and landing can be used to estimate alander’s navigation state and map the terrain below. Together,these data products can be used to enable safe and preciselanding on celestial bodies for which a priori orbital reconnaissanceis insufficient for hazard detection and avoidance.Unlike camera images used in visual terrain relative navigation,LiDAR scans are insensitive to changes in illumination; as aresult, the technique can be used to land in poorly lit areas,or at times of day when the lighting conditions are incongruentwith existing orbital imagery. In this paper, we extend previouswork in which we introduced a factor graph based smoothingapproach for LiDAR-inertial navigation and mapping. Whereasthe algorithms were previously tested on simulated data, thispaper presents testing on real-world data. Data from theAutonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT)airplane flight tests in the Yucca Flats and Death Valley in2009 (FT3), the Morpheus vertical take off and landing flighttests at Kennedy Space Center in 2014 (FT6), and the landingof Perseverance and Ingenuity on Mars in 2021 (M2020) wereused to evaluate algorithm performance. In this paper, weextend our LiDAR-inertial technique to work with a variety ofranging technologies: single point laser altimetry (FT3), denseflash LiDAR (FT6), and six-beam radar (M2020). A thoroughperformance analysis for all three datasets is presented. Datasetpreparation, improvements in algorithm robustness, and outlierrejection, which were necessitated by the transition to realworlddata, are discussed.

Trawny, Nikolas↗

Modeling Flight: The Role of Dynamically Scaled Free-Flight Models in Support of NASA's Aerospace Programs

The state of the art in aeronautical engineering has been continually accelerated by the development of advanced analysis and design tools. Used in the early design stages for aircraft and spacecraft, these methods have provided a fundamental understanding of physical phenomena and enabled designers to predict and analyze critical characteristics of new vehicles, including the capability to control or modify unsatisfactory behavior. For example, the relatively recent emergence and routine use of extremely powerful digital computer hardware and software has had a major impact on design capabilities and procedures. Sophisticated new airflow measurement and visualization systems permit the analyst to conduct micro- and macro-studies of properties within flow fields on and off the surfaces of models in advanced wind tunnels. Trade studies of the most efficient geometrical shapes for aircraft can be conducted with blazing speed within a broad scope of integrated technical disciplines, and the use of sophisticated piloted simulators in the vehicle development process permits the most important segment of operations the human pilot to make early assessments of the acceptability of the vehicle for its intended mission. Knowledgeable applications of these tools of the trade dramatically reduce risk and redesign, and increase the marketability and safety of new aerospace vehicles. Arguably, one of the more viable and valuable design tools since the advent of flight has been testing of subscale models. As used herein, the term "model" refers to a physical article used in experimental analyses of a larger full-scale vehicle. The reader is probably aware that many other forms of mathematical and computer-based models are also used in aerospace design; however, such topics are beyond the intended scope of this document. Model aircraft have always been a source of fascination, inspiration, and recreation for humans since the earliest days of flight. Within the scientific community, Leonardo da Vinci, George Cayley, and the Wright brothers are examples of early aviation pioneers who frequently used models during their scientific efforts to understand and develop flying machines. Progress in the technology associated with model testing in worldwide applications has firmly established model aircraft as a key element in new aerospace research and development programs. Models are now routinely used in many applications and roles, including aerodynamic data gathering in wind tunnel investigations for the analysis of full-scale aircraft designs, proof-of-concept demonstrators for radical aeronautical concepts, and problem-solving exercises for vehicles already in production. The most critical contributions of aerospace models are to provide confidence and risk reduction for new designs and to enhance the safety and efficiency of existing configurations.

Chambers, Joseph↗

A structural-stochastic model for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images

A structural-stochastic image model is developed for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images. The ability of the model to characterize the visual appearance of cloud fields observed by satellite with a limited number of parameters is demonstrated. The model merges structural and stochastic information, the stochastic model acting as a local statistical operator applied to the output of the structural model. The structural or large-scale organization of the scene is retrieved from the two-dimensional Fourier representation of the digital image. The pattern generated by the major Fourier components provides a first guess of the scene. The stochastic aspect is described by a Markov model of texture that assumes a binomial probability distribution for the local grey-level variability. This Markov model provides four parameters that represent the clustering strength in the horizontal, vertical and diagonal directions. These parameters are estimated by a standard maximum-likelihood technique. The image can be reproduced with a fair degree of verisimilitude from these parameters. The data compression factor is of the order of one hundred to several hundreds.

Garand, L.↗

PSIDD3: Post-Scan Ultrasonic Data Display System for the Windows-Based PC Including Fuzzy Logic Analysis

Post-Scan Interactive Data Display (PSIDD) III is a user-oriented Windows-based system that facilitates the display and comparison of ultrasonic contact data. The system is optimized to compare ultrasonic measurements made at different locations within a material or at different stages of material degradation. PSIDD III provides complete analysis of the primary wave forms in the time and frequency domains along with the calculation of several frequency dependent properties including Phase Velocity and Attenuation Coefficient and several frequency independent properties, like the Cross Correlation Velocity. The system allows image generation on all of the frequency dependent properties at any available frequency (limited by the bandwidth used in the scans) and on any of the frequency independent properties. From ultrasonic contact scans, areas of interest on an image can be studied with regard to underlying raw waveforms and derived ultrasonic properties by simply selecting the point on the image. The system offers various modes of in-depth comparison between scan points. Up to five scan points can be selected for comparative analysis at once. The system was developed with Borland Delphi software (Visual Pascal) and is based on a SQL database. It is ideal for classification of material properties, or location of microstructure variations in materials.

Lovelace, Jeffrey J.↗

Image Mapping and Visual Attention on the Sensory Ego-Sphere

The Sensory Ego-Sphere (SES) is a short-term memory for a robot in the form of an egocentric, tessellated, spherical, sensory-motor map of the robot s locale. Visual attention enables fast alignment of overlapping images without warping or position optimization, since an attentional point (AP) on the composite typically corresponds to one on each of the collocated regions in the images. Such alignment speeds analysis of the multiple images of the area. Compositing and attention were performed two ways and compared: (1) APs were computed directly on the composite and not on the full-resolution images until the time of retrieval; and (2) the attentional operator was applied to all incoming imagery. It was found that although the second method was slower, it produced consistent and, thereby, more useful APs. The SES is an integral part of a control system that will enable a robot to learn new behaviors based on its previous experiences, and that will enable it to recombine its known behaviors in such a way as to solve related, but novel, task problems with apparent creativity. The approach is to combine sensory-motor data association and dimensionality reduction to learn navigation and manipulation tasks as sequences of basic behaviors that can be implemented with a small set of closed-loop controllers. Over time, the aggregate of behaviors and their transition probabilities form a stochastic network. Then given a task, the robot finds a path in the network that leads from its current state to the goal. The SES provides a short-term memory for the cognitive functions of the robot, association of sensory and motor data via spatio-temporal coincidence, direction of the attention of the robot, navigation through spatial localization with respect to known or discovered landmarks, and structured data sharing between the robot and human team members, the individuals in multi-robot teams, or with a C3 center.

Fleming, Katherine Achim↗

Discussion on selected symbiotic stars

Because of its large variety of aspects, the symbiotic phenomenon is not very suitable for a statistical treatment. It is also not clear whether symbiotic stars really represent a homogeneous group of astrophysical objects or a collection of objects of different natures but showing similar phenomena. However we are especially interested in the symbiotic phenomenon, i.e., in those physical processes occurring in the atmosphere of each individual object and in their time dependence. Such a research can be performed through the detailed analysis of individual objects. This study should be done for a time long enough to cover all the different phases of their activity, in all the spectral ranges. Since the typical time scale of the symbiotic phenomena is up to several years and decades, this represents a problem since, for instance, making astronomy outside the visual region is a quite new field of research. It was a fortunate case that a few symbiotic stars (Z And, AG Dra, CH Cyg, AX Per, and PU Vul) had undergone remarkable light variations (or 'outbursts') in recent years, which could have been followed in the space ultraviolet with IUE, and simultaneously in the optical and IR with ground-based telescopes. But, in general, the time coverage of most of the symbiotic objects is too short to have a complete picture of their behavior. In this regard, one should recall Mayall's remark about the light curve of Z And: 'Z Andromedae is another variable that shows it will require several hundred years of observations before a good analysis can be made of its variations'. This pessimistic remark should be considered as a note of caution for those involved in the interpretation of the observations. We shall discuss a number of individual symbiotic stars for which the amount of observational data is large enough to draw a rather complete picture of their general behavior and to make consistent models. We shall especially illustrate the necessary steps toward an empirical model and take the discussion of the individual objects as a useful occasion to describe different techniques of diagnosis.

Viotti, Roberto↗

Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.

Potter, Christopher S.↗

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Hong, Yang↗

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