Microgrid resilience: A holistic approach for assessing threats, identifying vulnerabilities, and designing corresponding mitigation strategies
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This study models the role of electricity tariffs on the long-term adoption of photovoltaic and storage technologies as well as the consequent impact on the distribution grid. An adoption model that captures the economic rationality of tariff-driven investments and considers the stochastic nature of individual consumers’ decisions is proposed. This model is then combined with a probabilistic load flow to evaluate the long-term impacts of the adoption on the voltage profiles of the distribution grid. To illustrate the methodology, different components of the electricity tariffs, including solar compensation mechanisms and time differentiation of Time-of-Use (ToU) rates, are evaluated, using a case study involving a section of a medium-voltage network with 118 nodes.
History matching aims to find a numerical reservoir model that can be used to predict the reservoir performance. An engineer and model calibration (data inversion) method are required to adjust various parameters/properties of the numerical model in order to match the reservoir production history. In this study, we develop deep neural networks within the reinforcement learning framework to achieve automated history matching that will reduce engineers’ efforts, human bias, automatically and intelligently explore the parameter space, and remove the need of large set of labeled training data. To that end, a fast-marching-based reservoir simulator is encapsulated as an environment for the proposed reinforcement learning. The deep neural-network-based learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator within reinforcement learning framework to achieve the automated history matching. Reinforcement learning techniques, such as discrete Deep Q Network and continuous Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients, are used toth, used to train the learning agents. The continuous actions enable the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients to explore more states at each iteration in a a learning episode; consequently, a better history matching is achieved using this algorithm as compared to Deep Q Network. For simplified dual-target composite reservoir models, the best history-matching performances of the discrete and continuous learning methods in terms of normalized root mean square errors are 0.0447 and 0.0038, respectively. Furthermore, our study shows that continuous action space achieved by the deep deterministic policy gradient drastically outperforms deep Q network.
Successful geologic CO 2 storage projects depend on numerical simulations to predict reservoir performance during site selection, injection verification, and post-injection monitoring phases of the project. These numerical simulations solve non-linear sets of coupled partial differential equations, while accounting for multi-phase fluid dynamics on the basis of constitutive equations that are embedded into the solution scheme. As a consequence, individual simulations often require tens to hundreds of hours to complete on high-performance computing clusters. Moreover, laboratory experiments reveal that parametric functions for capillary pressure and relative permeability exhibit substantial variability, even within the same rock type. This combination of computational expense and wide-ranging parametric variability means that there remains substantial uncertainty in the behavior of multi-phase CO 2 -water systems, particularly in the context of feedbacks between relative permeability and capillary pressure. To bridge this knowledge gap, here we develop a novel workflow that utilizes physics-based numerical simulation to train an artificial neural network (ANN) emulator for interrogating the multivariate parameter space that governs both capillary pressure and relative permeability. With this approach, the ANN is trained to emulate both fluid pressure distribution and CO 2 saturation, which are then interrogated quantitatively to generate parametric response surface mappings with high-fidelity resolution. Results from this study initially show that capillary entry pressure is the dominant control on both CO 2 plume geometry and fluid pressure propagation when considering the combined effects of capillary pressure and relative permeability, particularly when phase interference is low and residual CO 2 saturation is high. Moreover, the ANN emulator provides tremendous computational speed-up by computing 2691 individual simulations in several minutes; whereas, the same simulation ensemble would have required ~3 years of simulation time using only physics-based simulation methods (25,000 times speed up).
We present experimental results and a validated numerical model of a dual-circuit phase-change thermal energy storage module for air conditioners. The module incorporates a phase-change material encapsulated in compressed expanded natural graphite foam. We used n-tetradecane as the PCM with a transition temperature (~4.5 °C) suitable for air-conditioning applications. Heat exchange to and from the module is accomplished through two fluid loops operating as a heat source and sink embedded inside multiple slabs of the composite material. This dual-circuit design enables easier integration with air-conditioning equipment and provides enhanced flexibility in system operation as compared to the state-of-the-art thermal storage systems. When integrated with an air-conditioner, this design will enable peak-load shaving and enhances operational efficiency. The thermal storage device was designed for a nominal storage capacity of ~ 3.5 kWh. We evaluated the heat transfer and energy storage performance of this device using standalone heat transfer experiments to estimate key thermal resistances and identify design improvements before integration with an air conditioner. The numerical model of the heat exchanger uses a combination of discretized and lumped parameter approaches to maintain a balance between accuracy and computational expense. Our analyses show that the geometric features and integration of fluid tubes are key contributors to the thermal contact resistance between the fluid and the thermal storage material, and consequently, to the overall performance of the thermal storage module. Our standalone experiments also identified important operating scenarios in which this thermal storage module can be used for air-conditioning in buildings.
Decarbonization and resilience to heat waves have recently become high priorities for building and district energy systems. Geothermal coupled district heating and cooling systems that operate a water loop near ground temperature gain increasing adoption to support decarbonization. In these systems, vapor-compression machines, distributed in the energy transfer stations, lift the temperature up or down to the needs of the particular building. In principle, these systems can provide low-power, free cooling from the geothermal bore field during heat waves when electricity is often scarce. However, the performance of such a resilience operation mode and its implication on the energy system configuration and the sizing of the bore field and HVAC equipment is not yet understood. Consequently, we are assessing their resilience, power use and design implications under a scenario of a heat wave on five working days during which chillers are switched off to reduce electrical consumption. Our analysis is based on high-fidelity, coupled dynamic models of district energy, building-side HVAC and actual control logic, with whole building energy simulation used to assess thermal conditions in a 2004 vintage multi-zone office building in Chicago, IL. The results show that relying only on waterside economizer cooling, the indoor thermal conditions can be maintained in a tolerable range for the majority of the building zones with half the electrical energy compared to standard chiller operation. Thermal comfort in the hottest zones can be further improved by oversizing the cooling coil. However, the waterside economizer has significant implications on the system configuration and sizing: The geothermal bore field needs to be sized about 30% larger than the upper limit of the range observed for conventional geothermal systems. Nevertheless, if a central chiller plant is added, the bore field can be downsized to the typical design range. The latter configuration still allows compressor-less cooling during the heat wave with peak power reduced by 60% compared to the standard design and chiller operation.
Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) technologies are critical to ensure satisfactory building performance, such as reducing energy wastes and negative impacts on occupant comfort and productivity. Existing FDD technologies mainly focus on component-level FDD solutions, which could lead to mis-diagnosis of cross-level faults in heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. Cross-level faults are those faults that occur in one component or subsystem, but cause operational abnormalities in other components or subsystems, and result in a building level performance degradation. How to effectively diagnose the root cause of a cross-level fault is the focus of this study. Here, this paper presents a novel discrete Bayesian Network (DisBN)-based method for diagnosing cross-level faults in an HVAC system commonly used in commercial buildings. A two-level DisBN structure model is developed in this study. The parameters used in the DisBN model are obtained either from expert knowledge or through machine-learning strategies from normal system operation data. Meanwhile, the probability parameters are discretized to incorporate the uncertainties associated with typical expert knowledge. Thus, the developed DisBN method addresses the challenges many other BN based FDD methods face, i.e., the lack of fault data for BN parameter training. The developed DisBN represents causal relationships between a fault and its cross-level system impacts (i.e., fault symptoms or fault indicators) by considering how fault impacts propagate across different levels in an HVAC system. A weather and schedule information-based Pattern Matching (WPM) method is employed to automatically create WPM baseline data sets for each incoming real time snapshot data from the building systems. Consequently, BN inference and real-time diagnostics are achieved by comparing incoming snapshot data and the WPM baseline data set. The proposed method is evaluated using experimental fault data collected in a campus building. Fault diagnosis results demonstrate that the WPM-DisBN method is effective at locating the root causes of cross-level faults in an HVAC system.
Competitive wholesale electricity markets can help facilitate energy system decarbonization by incentivizing investments in clean energy technologies that meet evolving system needs. We explore market structure impacts on generator operations and deployment by risk-averse, heterogeneous investor firms using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite - Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Here we apply clean energy targets of 45%-100% by 2035 considering energy, ancillary services, capacity, and clean energy credit products and pricing and eligibility rules. Results highlight a complexity conundrum, whereby finding the "right" market design to achieve decarbonization goals and avoid unintended consequences can be a highly-nuanced, non-incremental challenge. Carefully designed energy-only markets can achieve the same clean energy targets as capacity market structures but with different revenue and profitability outcomes. Operating reserve demand curve-based scarcity pricing can substitute capacity markets for similar deployment outcomes. Carbon pricing alone is most effective at achieving decarbonization levels at low clean energy targets, and clean energy credit markets and carbon pricing are substitutionary at high clean energy targets. Restricting technology participation in capacity and operating reserve markets can impact deployment and operations, even for nonrestricted technologies. Adding an inertia product with fast frequency response yields insufficient provision at high clean energy targets, but work is needed to understand frequency requirements and capabilities.
The rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, coupled with advancements in charging technologies, emphasizes the critical necessity for expanding EV recharging infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Distribution Network (DN) encounters escalating challenges in meeting charging demand during peak traffic periods. Consequently, there is a mounting demand for the deployment of innovative Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies to augment the DN’s flexibility in power dispatch and alleviate travel costs for EV users. Hence, this paper proposes an EV-user-equilibrium-(UE)-constrained V2G planning framework that enhances flexibility in the DN. The framework aims to ascertain the optimal placement and capacity of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and V2G charging piles within the Transportation Network (TN). It takes into account the equilibrium condition stemming from competitive EV charging and routing behaviors alongside the optimal expansion of DN energy resources to accommodate the electricity supplied by the V2G piles. This study commences by analyzing EV drivers’ travel decisions, considering the influence of charging and V2G pile locations and sizes. Subsequently, we tackle the Traffic Assignment Problem with User Equilibrium (TAP-UE) model to characterize the steady-state traffic flow distribution of EVs. Following this, we formulate the optimization model for the Coordinated Power and Transportation Network (CPTN), which encompasses the optimal expansion of DN facilities and traffic flow regulation under UE conditions. To mitigate the computational complexity associated with the V2G planning model, we introduce a series of linearization methods to obtain a manageable Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution. Finally, to validate the efficacy of our proposed planning framework, we apply it to two test systems, including a real-world case study. Through these case studies, we explore the necessity and potential benefits of V2G technologies.
The electric power grid is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional synchronous generators to inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and energy storage systems. This evolution leads to a reduction in system inertia, a critical attribute for maintaining frequency stability in response to disturbances. Consequently, the ability to monitor and estimate system inertia has become increasingly essential. This paper provides a comprehensive review of existing inertia estimation methodologies, analyzing them from multiple perspectives, including the types of data utilized, underlying estimation principles, operational modes, and system-wide applicability. A comparative summary table is included to distill commonalities and key characteristics across various studies. In addition, the paper examines practical implementations of inertia estimation across several major power systems worldwide, including the U.S. interconnections, the Nordic power system, and the U.K. grid. Key challenges are identified, particularly in estimating contributions from virtual inertia sources and load-induced inertia in increasingly converter-dominated networks. To address these emerging challenges, the paper proposes an integrated framework for real-time inertia estimation and monitoring. This framework encompasses critical components such as data acquisition, inertia estimation from both synchronous and non-synchronous sources, load-induced effects, optimization techniques, forecasting, and virtual inertia scheduling. Collectively, these elements enable dynamic, system-wide monitoring and adaptive control of grid inertia.
As the glass-water reaction proceeds, certain glass compositions undergo a delayed acceleration in the alteration rate – a phenomenon that is commonly referred to as Stage III behavior – which generally coincides with zeolite formation. However, studying Stage III in the laboratory is difficult because the time scale required to observe Stage III behavior can vary from months to several years, and the solution conditions that initiate this acceleration remain poorly understood. Consequently, the development of a corrosion test method capable of quantifying Stage III rates in a timely manner would be of great benefit to both the scientific community and policy makers concerned with nuclear waste disposal. In this work, we induced and measured the acceleration in the corrosion rate of the AFCI glass by seeding static corrosion tests with zeolite Na-P2 at fixed pH90°C values ranging from 9.5 to 11.5. The induced Stage III rates increased linearly with increasing pH and were measured to be between the forward and residual rates of AFCI. Tests designed to compare induced Stage III rates obtained for different seeding times showed that the induced Stage III rates were faster in the absence of an alteration layer. In summary, the use of the seeded test method allows for a conservative quantification of Stage III rates in a relatively short, one-month time period.
Injection of acidic hydraulic fracture fluid (HFF) into shale formations for unconventional oil/gas production results in chemical reactions in the shale matrix that can alter fluid transport. Here, we report the results of set of experiments designed to evaluate the impact of calcite dissolution as a function of carbonate mineral content on matrix chemical reactivity and pore-space modification concomitant with imbibition. In this study, we tracked acidic HFF transport in four samples of Wolfcamp shale with calcite contents varying from 4% to 59% by monitoring the rate and spatial extent of bromide tracer transport using synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microprobe (XFM) imaging. Concurrently, we also carried out XFM imaging of the spatial distribution of Ca in the Wolfcamp shale cores (as a proxy of calcite distribution). Our approach thus yields a direct record of time-resolved selective ion transport resulting from the penetration of acidic HFF and the associated mineral transformations in the shale cores. We show that the variability in calcite content of Wolfcamp shale samples can directly affect the rate and spatial extent of imbibition. Although reaction of the acidic HFF with carbonates in shales enhances calcite dissolution and increases porosity, the spatial extent of calcite dissolution in the shale matrix is limited due to a rapid neutralization of pH. The relative abundance and spatial distribution of calcite control the chemical saturation state of the HFF progressing into the matrix. As a result, calcite has a major impact on the spatial extent and rate of matrix alteration and thus on HFF transport during subsurface reservoir stimulation. Consequently, increased calcite content in the shale matrix inhibits the spatial extent of the pore-volume increase and, by extension, the spatial extent and rate of imbibition. Our results thus show that the overall rates of calcite dissolution approach the rates of acidic HFF transport (i.e., Damköhler number ~1), which could contribute to the efficiency of subsurface reservoir stimulation. A better understanding of HFF-calcite reaction rates is crucial for improving the prediction and optimization of fluid transport across HFF-shale interfaces during hydraulic fracturing.
Managing heat in electrical conductors is a major challenge to meet the demands for sustainable energy use and electrical reliability, most notably power electronics and energy-critical electrical machines. Achieving such disparate functionalities, such as high temperature thermal and electrical reliability, require rational design and manufacturing of thermal conductor material and its hierarchical structures. Here we present hierarchical thermal-conductive nanocomposites, consisting of nanostructured ceramic conformal coating and aligned ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene fiber, to tailor heat dissipation in electric conductors. The hybrid aligned thermal interface exhibits a highly desirable temperature dependent anisotropic high thermal conductivity with 0.98W m –1 K –1 and dielectric strength with 3.4. In addition, electrically insulating thermal interfaces demonstrate high-performing and reliable electrical systems under the dynamic load conditions. The surface temperature of heterogeneous ceramic-polymer encapsulated conductor is 17.8 °C lower than that of polymer-encapsulated conductor at the same electrical load. Consequently, the findings shown here hold great promises for directing heat extraction in electrical machine systems, advancing thermal management for emerging electronic applications.
Thermal management is one of the major challenges facing the development of three-dimensional (3D) chip stacks. Recently, experimental studies have shown that neck-based thermal structure (NTS) between chip layers formed by drying of colloidal suspension in cavity filled with micro-size particles can improve the vertical heat conduction threefold. However, a deep understanding of the mechanisms of neck formation and its influence on heat conduction is still lacking. In this paper, we numerically study the effects of three parameters, i.e., initial nanoparticle concentration, drying temperature and chip surface wettability on neck formation between filler particles and on the resulting heat conduction of the NTS. With increasing nanoparticle concentration, the size and number of necks increase, resulting in an increased effective thermal conductivity (ETC) of NTS. The drying temperature is found to have only little influence on the ETC of resultant NTS, while the neck size and spatial distribution become more uniform at higher drying temperature. When reducing the wettability of the top and bottom surfaces of the cavity, the necks shrink in size until completing evacuating at the top and bottom layers, while the size of the necks between filler particles in the middle height of the cavity expands slowly. In consequence, the ETC of NTS drops at an increasing rate. Being able to reveal the underlying multiple mechanisms of two-phase flow, phase change and heat transport, the current numerical study suggests optimal values for the deposition process, with initial nanoparticle concentration over 0.8%, a drying temperature of 60°C and a uniform contact angle of 30° for practical production of NTS.
Increasing ventilation is an effective method to reduce indoor airborne disease transmission. An Energy recovery ventilator (ERV) is a passive energy recovery device used to reduce the energy consumption of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for conditioning the ventilation air. It preconditions the ventilation air by transferring energy from building exhaust air. Therefore, the ventilation and exhaust air streams interact directly/indirectly in the ERV for energy transfer. It is surmised that the ERV may transfer bioaerosols (with pathogens) from the exhaust air to ventilation air, resulting in the spread of infectious diseases. Consequently, many pandemic HVAC guidelines recommend that the use of ERVs be limited. This is a highly unsustainable direction given the increased energy requirements associated with the high ventilation provision advocated for pandemic operation. It must be noted that no validated experimental evidence exists in literature for bioaerosol transfer in ERVs. Hence, it is necessary to conduct extensive bioaerosol transfer research before adopting the unsustainable practice of limiting the utilization of ERVs. The main objective of this review study is to summarize the experimental methods and instrumentation for bioaerosol transfer research in ERVs. This comprehensive article provides a detailed overview of the generation, sampling, and analysis of bioaerosols for conducting the experiments. Further, it explains the possible mechanisms for bioaerosol transfer in various types of ERVs based on which the ERVs that need immediate attention are identified. The main contribution of this research paper is that it provides a novel experimental method which encompasses the biosafety aspects, instrumentation, performance parameters and uncertainties in conducting virus contained bioaerosol transfer study in ERVs. The findings from this review will be helpful in designing bioaerosol transfer experiments and developing future ERV test standards for such experiments.
This study investigates the impact of fuel-film formation on engine-out soot emissions in a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine under cold-start conditions. Split-injection strategies were applied by varying the number of injections, injection duration, and total fuel quantity to affect wall wetting and control the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio. A combined experimental and numerical approach was employed to analyze fuel-film deposition, combustion efficiency, and engine-out soot and unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC) emissions. In particular, fuel film distribution estimated by means of non-reacting, 3-D, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, together with experimentally measured soot data, were used to investigate fuel film formation and its role in soot generation. In the experiments, a skip-fired engine control strategy was applied to mimic the transient nature of engine cold-start operation. The results indicate that, under the same total number of injections, increasing the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio through longer injection durations improves combustion stability, as indicated by the decrease of the coefficient of variation of IMEP n (Net Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) from 6.0 % to 0.6 %. However, this strategy leads to higher soot emissions, which increased by nearly an order of magnitude, primarily due to enhanced wall-film formation. In contrast, increasing the number of injections while maintaining a constant equivalence ratio significantly impacts fuel-film deposition and, consequently, soot emissions, with a fivefold reduction of the measured engine-out soot, decreasing from 3.5 mg to 0.7 mg. A soot-film correlation was developed and achieved a high coefficient of determination (r 2 = 0.95) and was further extended to account for spark timing effects. These findings confirm the effectiveness of split-injection for avoiding wall film formation and soot emissions, and the critical role of fuel film in soot generation, supporting the hypothesis that pool fires play a crucial role in contributing to soot formation under these cold-start conditions. In conclusion, the study also indicates the value of a predictive soot-film correlation for developing cold-start emission control strategies.
We report on a simple approach for synthesis of temperature-responsive giant unilamellar vesicles (GUVs) from poly(N-vinylcaprolactam) 15 -block-poly(dimethylsiloxane) 65 -block-poly(N-vinylcaprolactam) 15 (PVCL 15 -PDMS65-PVCL 15 ) triblock copolymer and non-temperature responsive small and giant vesicles from novel poly(N-vinylpyrrolidone)-block-poly(dimethylsiloxane)-block-poly(N-vinylpyrrolidone) (PVPON 15 -PDMS 65 -PVPON 15 and PVPON 6- PDMS 30- PVPON 6 ) triblock copolymers using microfluidic mixing at 25 °C. We show that temperature-responsive PVCL 15 -PDMS 65- PVCL 15 GUVs with the average diameter of 1.4 ± 0.2 µm while being stable at room temperature for at least 14 days, transformed irreversibly into small vesicles of 168 ± 40 nm after incubation of their aqueous solution at 42 °C for 24 h. We hypothesized that this transformation is induced by local compressive stresses of the vesicle membrane due to the collapse of PVCL blocks above the copolymer lower critical solution temperature (LCST) leading to the decrease of the vesicle membrane thickness. Consequently, we found that the temperature-induced size transformation of the PVCL-based GUVs at 42°C can be suppressed by substituting PVCL with its hydrophilic homologue PVPON, or by suppressing the PVCL's LCST behavior through hydrogen-bonding with tannic acid molecules. In the former case, novel PVPON n -PDMS m -PVPON n triblock copolymers (n = 15, m = 65 and n = 6, m = 30) assemble into vesicles stable from 25 °C to 55 °C as confirmed by optical and electron microscopy, dynamic light scattering (DLS) and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS). In the latter, hydrogen bonding interactions of PVCL with the polyphenol tannic acid (TA) at room temperature resulted in stable PVCL-based GUVs at 42°C as confirmed by optical, electron, and atomic force microscopies. We also found that physical crosslinking of the PVCL corona through hydrogen bonding with TA in PVCL 15- PDMS 65- PVCL 15 GUVs will delay their low pH-induced degradation at 37°C by 48 h compared to non-modified GUVs. Our findings open opportunities for the development of temperature-regulated stable micro-vehicles that would change their structural characteristics in the physiologically relevant temperature range from 25 to 42°C and can be utilized for cell mimicking studies. The developed GUVs also have potential in theranostic drug delivery as substitutes for polymer microcapsules and lipid microbubbles as well as for stimuli-triggered sensing, protection, and rapid response in an aqueous environment.
Wildfire is a pervasive disturbance in mixed-conifer forests, yet the relative influence of fire recurrence versus burn severity on soil biogeochemistry and microbial communities remains poorly quantified. We examined a natural gradient of fire history (0–3 prior fires) and burn severity (low–high) spanning 50 yr in a mixed-conifer ecosystem to assess how repeated fire shapes soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, their isotopic signatures, mineral and particulate fractions, microbial community composition, carbon-use, CO₂ fluxes, and vegetation cover. Successive fires produced progressively higher bare-ground percentages and lower tree cover, which were tightly linked to declines in microbial diversity and reductions bulk %C, and %N. δ 13 C increased with fire frequency, indicating preferential loss of labile C through combustion or enhanced microbial oxidation, thereby explaining the observed net soil-C decline. Conversely, δ 15 N decreased and pH increased as tree density declined, reflecting altered N cycling and reduced acidification in post-fire soils. Fire recurrence, more than severity, corresponded with a marked shift in the bacterial community: for example, Xanthobacteraceae—key N-fixers and C-cyclers—diminished, while N-fixing Bacillaceae increased, underscoring the tightly coupled nature of soil nutrient dynamics and microbiome composition after repeated burns. Our results demonstrate that fire recurrence appears to be a stronger driver of post-fire soil ecosystem responses in this mixed-conifer forest, influencing both abiotic nutrient pools and the functional potential of the soil microbiome. These findings provide a more enhanced assessment and understanding to date of the biogeochemical consequences of repeated wildfire disturbance that can be used to inform management strategies aimed at preserving soil health in fire-prone landscapes.
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