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Gulf of Mexico Turbulence Intensity Model Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars. The simulated data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observed quantities. The simulations were carried out for the Gulf of Mexico region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mid-Atlantic Turbulence Intensity Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives observed and model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO). The observational data were measured by lidar and buoy deployed at ASIT. The simulated profiles and timeseries data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observations. Simulations were carried out for the mid-Atlantic region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles at the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Northern Pacific Turbulence Intensity Model Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the lidar buoys sites off the coast of California (Humboldt and Morro Bay). The simulated data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observed quantities. The simulations were carried out for the north Pacific region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Comparison of the Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery and Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles

The Red Green Blue (RGB) Air Mass imagery is derived from multiple channels or paired channel differences. Multiple channel products typically provide additional information than a single channel can provide alone. The RGB Air Mass imagery simplifies the interpretation of temperature and moisture characteristics of air masses surrounding synoptic and mesoscale features. Despite the ease of interpretation of multiple channel products, the combination of channels and channel differences means the resulting product does not represent a quantity or physical parameter such as brightness temperature in conventional single channel satellite imagery. Without a specific quantity to reference, forecasters are often confused as to what RGB products represent. Hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles of temperature, moisture, and ozone can provide insight about the air mass represented on the RGB Air Mass product and provide confidence in the product and representation of air masses despite the lack of a quantity to reference for interpretation. This study focuses on RGB Air Mass analysis of Hurricane Sandy as it moved north along the U.S. East Coast, while transitioning to a hybrid extratropical storm. Soundings and total column ozone retrievals were analyzed using data from the Cross-track Infrared and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder Suite (CrIMSS) on the Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership satellite and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aqua satellite along with dropsondes that were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Air Force research aircraft. By comparing these datasets to the RGB Air Mass, it is possible to capture quantitative information that could help in analyzing the synoptic environment enough to diagnose the onset of extratropical transition. This was done by identifying any stratospheric air intrusions (SAIs) that existed in the vicinity of Sandy as the wind field expanded and the cloud pattern evolved into an atypical pattern.

Berndt, E. B.↗

Seafloor Control on Sea Ice

The seafloor has a profound role in Arctic sea ice formation and seasonal evolution. Ocean bathymetry controls the distribution and mixing of warm and cold waters, which may originate from different sources, thereby dictating the pattern of sea ice on the ocean surface. Sea ice dynamics, forced by surface winds, are also guided by seafloor features in preferential directions. Here, satellite mapping of sea ice together with buoy measurements are used to reveal the bathymetric control on sea ice growth and dynamics. Bathymetric effects on sea ice formation are clearly observed in the conformation between sea ice patterns and bathymetric characteristics in the peripheral seas. Beyond local features, bathymetric control appears over extensive ice-prone regions across the Arctic Ocean. The large-scale conformation between bathymetry and patterns of different synoptic sea ice classes, including seasonal and perennial sea ice, is identified. An implication of the bathymetric influence is that the maximum extent of the total sea ice cover is relatively stable, as observed by scatterometer data in the decade of the 2000s, while the minimum ice extent has decreased drastically. Because of the geologic control, the sea ice cover can expand only as far as it reaches the seashore, the continental shelf break, or other pronounced bathymetric features in the peripheral seas. Since the seafloor does not change significantly for decades or centuries, sea ice patterns can be recurrent around certain bathymetric features, which, once identified, may help improve short-term forecast and seasonal outlook of the sea ice cover. Moreover, the seafloor can indirectly influence cloud cover by its control on sea ice distribution, which differentially modulates the latent heat flux through ice covered and open water areas.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Information Requirements for Supervisory Air Traffic Controllers in Support of a Wake Vortex Departure System

Closely Space Parallel Runway (CSPR) configurations are capacity limited for departures due to the requirement to apply wake vortex separation standards from traffic departing on the adjacent parallel runway. To mitigate the effects of this constraint, a concept focusing on wind dependent departure operations has been developed, known as the Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD). This concept takes advantage of the fact that crosswinds of sufficient velocity blow wakes generated by aircraft departing from the downwind runway away from the upwind runway. Consequently, under certain conditions, wake separations on the upwind runway would not be required based on wakes generated by aircraft on the downwind runway, as is currently the case. It follows that information requirements, and sources for this information, would need to be determined for airport traffic control tower (ATCT) supervisory personnel who would be charged with decisions regarding use of the procedure. To determine the information requirements, data were collected from ATCT supervisors and controller-in-charge qualified individuals at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport (STL) and George Bush Houston Intercontinental Airport (IAH). STL and IAH were chosen as data collection sites based on the implementation of a WTMD prototype system, operating in shadow mode, at these locations. The 17 total subjects (STL: 5, IAH: 12) represented a broad-base of air traffic experience. Results indicated that the following information was required to support the conduct of WTMD operations: current and forecast weather information, current and forecast traffic demand and traffic flow restrictions, and WTMD System status information and alerting. Subjects further indicated that the requisite information is currently available in the tower cab with the exception of the WTMD status and alerting. Subjects were given a demonstration of a display supporting the prototype systems and unanimously stated that the WTMD status information they felt important was represented. Overwhelmingly, subjects felt that approving, monitoring and terminating the WTMD procedure could be integrated into their supervisory workload.

Lohr, Gary W.↗

Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) Science Implementation Plan

Boreal regions have experienced warming faster than the rest of the Earth, and the arctic ice cover has declined at a rate faster than predicted by most climate models. Uncertainties in climate projections for this region are large, in part due to the lack of observational guidance to constrain the treatment of aerosol-cloud-precipitation linkages in climate models. To remedy this shortfall, field campaigns have been conducted to collect integrated, comprehensive measurements under specific atmospheric regimes. While considerable efforts have been devoted to subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds, as well as to clouds in the stable arctic environment, very few targeted observations exist of convective boundary-layer clouds that form over open water when cold airmasses are advected off ice-covered regions or boreal continents. There is an urgent need to shed light on the dynamics and microphysical properties of clouds and precipitation in the high-latitude marine boundary layer during cold-air outbreaks. Despite the common occurrence of linear and cellular cloud patterns that typify cold-air outbreaks, little is known about the properties of these clouds; how they vary with surface, environmental, and aerosol conditions; the role of cold-air outbreaks in the global atmospheric and ocean circulation; and the accuracy of the treatment of this atmospheric regime in climate models. Thus, we proposed to conduct the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE), to focus on marine boundary-layer clouds during cold-air outbreaks. COMBLE will deploy the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) and an AMF “satellite” station in the far North Atlantic in January–May 2020. COMBLE will take advantage of the synergy with several coincident campaigns, notably MOSAIC, which will characterize the source airmasses of cold-air outbreaks over the arctic ice, and (AC) 3 , which will operate several aircraft between northern Scandinavia and the MOSAIC deployment to document evolution of these airmasses. COMBLE and its sister campaigns will compose a four-member array of supersites between northern Scandinavia and the Arctic, each with profiling and in situ cloud, precipitation, radiation, and aerosol measurements. COMBLE will be guided by six science themes. The first five deal with boundary-layer convection in cold-air outbreaks: (1) the fetch-dependent mesoscale organization of clouds and precipitation, including linear and cellular convection; (2) surface heat and momentum fluxes and vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, wind, and turbulence; (3) vertical structure of clouds and precipitation; (4) the sources and sinks of aerosol, including ice-nucleating particles, and the role of cloud-active aerosol on cloud processes and radiative fluxes; and (5) the influence of these four themes on polar cyclogenesis and polar low vertical structure. The overarching sixth theme is that COMBLE will provide integrated data sets of dynamical, thermodynamic, and cloud microphysical characteristics of marine boundary-layer convection in cold-air outbreaks, including cloud and aerosol properties, that will enable constraining high-resolution numerical simulations, developing process-level understanding, and, subsequently, evaluating and improving representations of shallow convection in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Time-Height Profile Assimilation Technique for Large-Eddy Simulation

Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal forcing terms are computed based on mesoscale time–height profiles of mean-flow quantities. The advantage of such an approach is that it can be used to drive a microscale simulation with either mesoscale or observational data, and that it does not rely on specific terms in the mesoscale budget equations, which are typically not part of the default output of a mesoscale solver. The performance of the proposed profile assimilation technique is assessed based on the simulation of a typical diurnal cycle over the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site in west Texas. Results indicate that simple data assimilation techniques lead to unphysically high levels of shear and turbulence caused by the algorithm’s inability to cope with inaccuracies in the mesoscale time–height profiles. Modifying the algorithm to account for vertical coherence in the mesoscale source terms gives the microscale solver a greater ability to correct the provided mesoscale time–height profiles, leading to improved predictions of shear and turbulence statistics. The resulting turbulence statistics are in good agreement with meteorological tower observations and simulation results obtained with state-of-the-art coupling techniques using mesoscale budget components.

data assimilation↗

Overview of ACE-Asia Spring 2001 Investigations on Aerosol Radiative Effects and Related Aerosol Properties

A primary, ACE-Asia objective was to quantify the interactions between aerosols and radiation in the Asia-Pacific region. Toward this end, radiometric and related aerosol measurements were made from ocean, land, air and space platforms. Models that predict aerosol fields guided the measurements and are helping integrate and interpret results. Companion overview's survey these measurement and modeling components. Here we illustrate how these components were combined to determine aerosol radiative. impacts and their relation to aerosol properties. Because clouds can obscure or change aerosol direct radiative effects, aircraft and ship sorties to measure these effects depended on predicting and finding cloud-free areas and times with interesting aerosols present. Pre-experiment satellite cloud climatologies, pre-flight aerosol and cloud forecasts, and in-flight guidance from satellite imagery all helped achieve this. Assessments of aerosol regional radiative impacts benefit from the spatiotemporal coverage of satellites, provided satellite-retrieved aerosol properties are accurate. Therefore, ACE-Asia included satellite retrieval tests, as part of many comparisons to judge the consistency (closure) among, diverse measurements. Early results include: (1) Solar spectrally resolved and broadband irradiances and optical depth measurements from the C-130 aircraft and at Kosan, Korea yielded aerosol radiative forcing efficiencies, permitting comparisons between efficiencies of ACE-Asia and INDOEX aerosols, and between dust and "pollution" aerosols. Detailed results will be presented in separate papers. (2) Based on measurements of wavelength dependent aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo the estimated 24-h a average aerosol radiative forcing efficiency at the surface for photosynthetically active radiation (400 - 700 nm) in Yulin, China is approx. 30 W sq m per AOD(500 nm). (3) The R/V Brown cruise from Honolulu to Sea of Japan sampled an aerosol optical depth gradient, with AOD(500 nm) extremes from 0.1 to 1.1. On the Pacific transit from Honolulu to Hachijo AOD(500 nm) averaged 0.2, including increases to 0.4 after several storms, suggesting the strong impact of wind-generated seasalt. The AOD maximum, found in the Sea of Japan, was influenced by dust and anthropogenic sources. (4) In Beijing, single scattering albedo retrieved from AERONET sun-sky radiometry yielded midvisible SSA=0.88 with strong wavelength dependence, suggesting a significant black carbon component. SSA retrieved during dust episodes was approx. 0.90 and variable but wavelength neutral reflecting the presence of urban haze with the dust. Downwind at Anmyon Island SSA was considerably higher, approx. 0.94, but wavelength neutral for dust episodes and spectrally dependent during non dust periods. (5) Satellite retrievals show major aerosol features moving from Asia over the Pacific; however, determining seasonal-average aerosol effects is hampered by sampling frequency and large-scale cloud systems that obscure key parts of aerosol patterns. Preliminary calculations using, satellite-retrieved AOD fields and initial ACE-Asia aerosol properties (including sulfates, soot, and dust) yield clear-sky aerosol radiative effects in the seasonal-average ACE-Asia plume exceeding those of manmade greenhouse gases. Quantifying all-sky direct aerosol radiative effects is complicated by the need to define the height of absorbing aerosols with respect to cloud decks.

Russell, Philip B.↗

Controller Strategies for Managing Air Traffic in High Altitude Arrival Sectors

Substantial increases in the volume of air traffic in the National Airspace System (NAS) are forecast for the next decade, with the number of passengers travelling on U.S. airlines expected to increase by as much as 60%. This increased demand on system capacity will be accompanied by increases in traffic complexity as air traffic service providers routinely accommodate user preferred routing requests. Changes to the NAS to meet these new demands are currently underway, including development of new decision support tools to aid controllers in monitoring and managing air traffic, and increased air-to-air and air-to-ground information exchange. Changes in roles and responsibilities of pilots and controllers in flight path management will accompany these changes in traffic patterns and information technology, however the ultimate responsibility for maintaining aircraft separation will remain with the air traffic controller. A thorough understanding of the methods controllers use to manage air traffic will help ensure that changes to the NAS are implemented in a way that maintains the controller's ability to separate aircraft as the system evolves. This presentation describes the strategies controllers use today to manage arrival traffic in its descent from cruise altitude to the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) boundary. Factors that increase the complexity of this task include the presence of overflight traffic, varying aircraft performance characteristics, winds aloft, ground speed variations with altitude, the need to merge arrival traffic into a single stream, and, when arrival traffic exceeds airport runway capacity, the added task of metering flow into the TRACON. Because of the limited information available to controllers to manage arrival traffic, their strategies are often driven by the need to reduce the task's complexity, which can result in de-optimized flight paths for individual aircraft (e.g., sub-optimal descent or speed profiles). Understanding these strategies and the cognitive demands that drive them will support a safe transition to a NAS that relies on enhanced technologies. In addition, it could enable system developers to identify opportunities for new automation-based procedures or information displays that could reduce the controller's workload and increase operational efficiency.

Smith, Nancy↗

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005

We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, 10 (12%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc), even though all the available solar observation in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus, while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a front-side fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.

Zhang, J.↗

Flows and torques in Brownian ferrofluids subjected to rotating uniform magnetic fields in a cylindrical and annular geometry

Ferrofluid flow in cylindrical and annular geometries under the influence of a uniform rotating magnetic field was studied experimentally using aqueous ferrofluids consisting of low concentrations (<0.01 v/v) of cobalt ferrite nanoparticles with Brownian relaxation to test the ferrohydrodynamic equations, elucidate the existence of couple stresses, and determine the value of the spin viscosity in these fluids. An ultrasound technique was used to measure bulk velocity profiles in the spin-up (cylindrical) and annular geometries, varying the intensity and frequency of the rotating magnetic field generated by a two pole stator winding. Additionally, torque measurements in the cylindrical geometry were made. Results show rigid-body like velocity profiles in the bulk, and no dependence on the axial direction. Experimental velocity profiles were in quantitative agreement with the predictions of the spin diffusion theory, with a value of the spin viscosity of ∼10{sup −8} kg m/s, two orders of magnitude larger than the value estimated earlier for iron oxide based ferrofluids, and 12 orders of magnitude larger than estimated using dimensional arguments valid in the infinite dilution limit. These results provide further evidence of the existence of couple stresses in ferrofluids and their role in driving the spin-up flow phenomenon.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Spaceborne Lidar Retrievals of PM2.5 for Air Quality Studies and Applications

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) substantially contributes to air pollution and negatively affects human health. While many studies have investigated the use of passive column-integrated aerosol optical depth to infer surface PM2.5, the use of lidar observations for air quality characterization is not nearly as extensive. Lidar measurements are critical, however, due to the vertical aerosol information they provide, including near the surface. In this presentation, we first provide an overview of various lidar-based approaches for estimating PM2.5 concentrations and then discuss how lidar measurements can assist other air quality applications. For example, estimates of PM2.5 have been obtained in a physics-based approach through CALIOP near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals, assumptions on the mass extinction efficiency, and incorporating other parameters (an aerosol hygroscopic growth factor and PM2.5/PM10 ratio). Application of this algorithm over the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2006 to 2018 yielded larger PM2.5 values over the eastern and western CONUS (~10-15 μg/m³) and lower PM2.5 levels in the central CONUS (~5 μg/m³). These spatial patterns were similar to those from gridded PM2.5 concentrations obtained through in situ measurements at ground stations operated by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In another approach, the Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar was used with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model in a 1D ensemble-based variational technique to obtain PM2.5 over the US and Europe, and the spatial patterns of the CATS/GEOS based PM2.5 concentrations generally captured those from surface stations (with corresponding hourly EPA PM2.5 vs CATS PM2.5 statistics of R=0.4 and bias=1.5 μg/m³). In our recent work, as part of the Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) Working Group, we have applied both the CALIOP and CATS/GEOS based approaches over the highly polluted country of India during the post-monsoon season (September-October 2016). We derived elevated levels of two-month mean PM2.5 (~100 μg/m³) in northern India, especially near New Delhi. These high PM2.5 concentrations in the Indo-Gangetic plain are driven in large part from the seasonal burning of crop residue and meteorological conditions typical at this time of the year, such as low wind speeds and a shallow boundary layer. While the satellite-derived PM2.5 moderately replicates (R = ~0.7-0.9) the spatial variability in the two-month mean of surface in situ PM2.5 from monitoring sites operated by the Central and State Pollution Control Boards, we show results from specific scenes for which there are large deviations between the satellite-derived PM2.5 and in situ measurements. Other current work on this topic focuses on developing PM2.5 estimates using airborne high spectral resolution lidar measurements through machine learning regression algorithms and involves several parameters (e.g., aerosol extinction, color ratio, lidar ratio). Application of this method over major metropolitan areas in the US and Asia have resulted in high correlations (R = 0.93) with surface measurements. This airborne lidar approach can be adapted to spaceborne lidar measurements, and all three of these approaches can be applied to ESA’s EarthCARE Atmospheric Lidar instrument, setting the stage for the future Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land Atmosphere System (CALIGOLA) mission. Ultimately, beyond estimates of PM2.5, the aerosol vertical distribution from lidars can benefit studies involving passive sensor approaches for PM2.5 proxies (including from geostationary satellites), wildfire smoke plume injection heights, volcanic emissions (e.g., ash height retrievals), and aerosol/air quality model assimilation, evaluation, and forecasts.

Travis D Toth↗

Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on the simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in May 2007, and the results are validated against radar and surface observations in Oklahoma. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including WRF 5-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6), Goddard Three Ice scheme (Goddard 3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice scheme (Goddard 2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail scheme. The simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme, and especially to whether graupel or hail category is included. All of the three ice (3-ice) schemes overestimated the total precipitation, within which WSM6 has the highest overestimation. Two ice (2-ice) schemes, missing a graupel/hail category, produced less total precipitation than 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that by including the graupel/hail processes, there is an increase in areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft and downdraft intensity in convective region and a reduction of areal coverage and its precipitation intensity in stratiform region. For vertical structures, all the bulk schemes, especially 2-ice schemes, have the highest reflectivity located at upper levels (~8 km), which is unrealistic compared to observations. In addition, this study shows the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF simulated precipitation, wind and microphysics fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

characteristics↗

Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in Oklahoma during May 2007, and the simulations are validated against radar and surface observations. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including the WRF 5-Class Microphysics (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics (WSM6), Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Three Ice (3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice (2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail schemes. Simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme when the graupel or hail categories are included. All of the 3-ice schemes overestimate the total precipitation with WSM6 having the largest bias. The 2-ice schemes, without a graupel/hail category, produce less total precipitation than the 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that including graupel/hail processes increases the convective areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft, and downdraft intensities, and reduces the stratiform areal coverage and precipitation intensity. For vertical structures, simulations have higher reflectivity values distributed aloft than the observed values in both the convective and stratiform regions. Three-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in convective regions, while 2-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in stratiform regions. In addition, this study has demonstrated that the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF-simulated precipitation, wind, and microphysical fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

snow↗

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗

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