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Atmospheric effects on SMMR and SSM/I 37 GHz polarization difference over the Sahel

The atmospheric effects on the difference of vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures, Delta(T) observed at 37 GHz frequency of the SMMR on board the Nimbus-7 satellite and SSM/I on board the DMSP-F8 satellite are studied over two 2.5 by 2.5 deg regions within the Sahel and Sudan zones of Africa from January 1985 to December 1986 through radiative transfer analysis using surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and cloud optical thickness. It is found that atmospheric effects alone cannot explain the observed temporal variation of Delta(T), although the atmosphere introduces important modulations on the observed seasonal variations of Delta(T) due to rather significant seasonal variation of precipitable water vapor. These Delta(T) data should be corrected for atmospheric effects before any quantitative analysis of land surface change over the Sahel and Sudan zones.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Quantifying Feedback from Narrow Line Region Outflows in Nearby Active Galaxies. III. Results for the Seyfert 2 Galaxies Markarian 3, Markarian 78, and NGC 1068

Outflows of ionized gas driven by active galactic nuclei (AGN) may significantly impact the evolution of their host galaxies. However, determining the energetics of these outflows is difficult with spatially unresolved observations that are subject to strong global selection effects. We present part of an ongoing study using Hubble Space Telescope and Apache Point Observatory spectroscopy and imaging to derive spatially resolved mass outflow rates and energetics for narrow-line region outflows in nearby AGN that are based on multi-component photoionization models to account for spatial variations in gas ionization, density, abundances, and dust content. This expanded analysis adds Mrk 3, Mrk 78, and NGC 1068, doubling our earlier sample. We find that the outflows contain total ionized gas masses of M ≈ 10(exp 5.5)-10(exp 7.5) M⨀ and reach peak velocities of v ≈ 800-2000 km s(exp -1). The outflows reach maximum mass outflow rates of M(sub OUT) ≈ 3-12 M⨀ yr(exp -1) and encompass total kinetic energies of E ≈ 10(exp 54)-10(exp 56) erg. The outflows extend to radial distances of r ≈ 0.1-3 kpc from the nucleus, with the gas masses, outflow energetics, and radial extents positively correlated with AGN luminosity. The outflow rates are consistent with in situ ionization and acceleration where gas is radiatively driven at multiple radii. These radial variations indicate that spatially resolved observations are essential for localizing AGN feedback and determining the most accurate outflow parameters.

Active galaxies↗

Observation of the Gamma-Ray Binary HESS J0632+057 with the H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS Telescopes

The results of gamma-ray observations of the binary system HESS J0632 + 057 collected during 450 hr over 15 yr, between 2004 and 2019, are presented. Data taken with the atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS at energies above 350 GeV were used together with observations at X-ray energies obtained with Swift-XRT, Chandra, XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, and Suzaku. Some of these observations were accompanied by measurements of the Hα emission line. A significant detection of the modulation of the very high-energy gamma-ray fluxes with a period of 316.7 ± 4.4 days is reported, consistent with the period of 317.3 ± 0.7 days obtained with a refined analysis of X-ray data. The analysis of data from four orbital cycles with dense observational coverage reveals short-timescale variability, with flux-decay timescales of less than 20 days at very high energies. Flux variations observed over a timescale of several years indicate orbit-to-orbit variability. The analysis confirms the previously reported correlation of X-ray and gamma-ray emission from the system at very high significance but cannot find any correlation of optical H$α$ parameters with fluxes at X-ray or gamma-ray energies in simultaneous observations. The key finding is that the emission of HESS J0632 + 057 in the X-ray and gamma-ray energy bands is highly variable on different timescales. The ratio of gamma-ray to X-ray flux shows the equality or even dominance of the gamma-ray energy range. This wealth of new data is interpreted taking into account the insufficient knowledge of the ephemeris of the system and discussed in the context of results reported on other gamma-ray binary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulated Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar influence on meteor rates and atmospheric density variations at meteor heights

Lindblad (1967) has concluded that there was an inverse relation between meteor rates and the solar cycle brought about by an increase in atmospheric density gradient at the height of meteor ionization. The present paper investigates Lindblad's conclusion more fully by using three long series of continuous radar meteor data from New Zealand and Canada. The results confirm a clear variation of total rate from year to year, inversely correlated with the annual sunspot number. Although meteor rates call for a density gradient variation inversely related to the solar cycle, direct evidence for such a variation remains nonexistant. Possibly the effect is being obscured by other density changes occurring at these heights. Analysis of meteor rates within the same one-year period in the two hemispheres has established that seasonal rate changes brought about by the variation of the angle between the latitude of the observing station and the apex of the earth's way override change of density gradient in at least one of the hemispheres and possibly both in controlling meteor rates within the year.

Ellyett, C.↗

The role of the reflection coefficient in precision measurement of ultrasonic attenuation

Ultrasonic attenuation measurements using contact, pulse-echo techniques are sensitive to surface roughness and couplant thickness variations. This can reduce considerable inaccuracies in the measurement of the attenuation coefficient for broadband pulses. Inaccuracies arise from variations in the reflection coefficient at the buffer-couplant-sample interface. The reflection coefficient is examined as a function of the surface roughness and corresponding couplant thickness variations. Interrelations with ultrasonic frequency are illustrated. Reliable attenuation measurements are obtained only when the frequency dependence of the reflection coefficient is incorporated in signal analysis. Data are given for nickel 200 samples and a silicon nitride ceramic bar having surface roughness variations in the 0.3 to 3.0 microns range for signal bandwidths in the 50 to 100 MHz range.

Generazio, E. R.↗

The role of the reflection coefficient in precision measurement of ultrasonic attenuation

Ultrasonic attenuation measurements using contact, pulse-echo techniques are sensitive to surface roughness and couplant thickness variations. This can reduce considerable inaccuracies in the measurement of the attenuation coefficient for broadband pulses. Inaccuracies arise from variations in the reflection coefficient at the buffer-couplant-sample interface. The reflection coefficient is examined as a function of the surface roughness and corresponding couplant thickness variations. Interrelations with ultrasonic frequency are illustrated. Reliable attenuation measurements are obtained only when the frequency dependence of the reflection coefficient is incorporated in signal analysis. Data are given for nickel 200 samples and a silicon nitride ceramic bar having surface roughness variations in the 0.3 to 3.0 microns range for signal bandwidths in the 50 to 100 MHz range.

Generazio, E. R.↗

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗

The Origins of the Gamma-Ray Flux Variations of NGC 1275 Based on Eight Years of Fermi -LAT Observations

Here, we present an analysis of eight years of Fermi-LAT (>0.1 GeV) γ-ray data obtained for the radio galaxy NGC 1275. The γ-ray flux from NGC 1275 is highly variable on short (~days to weeks) timescales, and has steadily increased over this eight year timespan. By examining the changes in its flux and spectral shape in the LAT energy band over the entire data set, we found that its spectral behavior changed around 2011 February (~MJD 55600). The γ-ray spectra at early times evolved largely at high energies, while the photon indices were unchanged at later times despite rather large flux variations. To explain these observations, we suggest that the flux changes at the early times were caused by injection of high-energy electrons into the jet while, later, the γ-ray flares were caused by a changing Doppler factor owing to variations in the jet Lorentz factor and/or changes in the angle to our line of sight. To demonstrate the viability of these scenarios, we fit the broad band spectral energy distribution data with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model for flaring and quiescent intervals before and after 2011 February. To explain the γ-ray spectral behavior in the context of the SSC model, the maximum electron Lorentz factor would have changed at the early times, while a modest change in the Doppler factor adequately fits the quiescent and flaring state γ-ray spectra at the later times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implications of Galaxy Buildup for Putative IMF Variations in Massive Galaxies

Recent observational evidence for initial mass function (IMF) variations in massive quiescent galaxies at z = 0 challenges the long-established paradigm of a universal IMF. While a few theoretical models relate the IMF to birth cloud conditions, the physical driver underlying these putative IMF variations is still largely unclear. Here we use post-processing analysis of the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation to investigate possible physical origins of IMF variability with galactic properties. We do so by tagging stellar particles in the simulation (each representing a stellar population of ≈10{sup 6} M{sub ⊙}) with individual IMFs that depend on various physical conditions, such as velocity dispersion, metallicity, or star formation rate, at the time and place in which the stars are formed. We then follow the assembly of these populations throughout cosmic time and reconstruct the overall IMF of each z = 0 galaxy from the many distinct IMFs it is composed of. Our main result is that applying the observed relations between IMF and galactic properties to the conditions at the star formation sites does not result in strong enough IMF variations between z = 0 galaxies. Steeper physical IMF relations are required for reproducing the observed IMF trends, and some stellar populations must form with more extreme IMFs than those observed. The origin of this result is the hierarchical nature of massive galaxy assembly, and it has implications for the reliability of the strong observed trends, for the ability of cosmological simulations to capture certain physical conditions in galaxies, and for theories of star formation aiming to explain the physical origin of a variable IMF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A unified approach to the analysis and design of elasto-plastic structures with mechanical contact

With structural design in mind, a new unified variational model has been developed which represents the mechanics of deformation elasto-plasticity with unilateral contact conditions. For a design problem formulated as maximization of the load carrying capacity of a structure under certain constraints, the unified model allows for a simultaneous analysis and design synthesis for a whole range of mechanical behavior.

Bendsoe, Martin P.↗

Covariate Dependent Sparse Functional Data Analysis

This study proposes a method to incorporate covariate information into sparse functional data analysis. The method aims at cases where each subject has a limited number of longitudinal measurements and is associated with static covariates. This research is motivated by several use cases in practice. One representative example is void swelling, a nuclear-specific material degradation mechanism. Void swelling is affected by many covariates, including alloy composition and irradiation type. How to accurately model the complicated joint effects of such covariates on the swelling process is the key to mitigating the effect of swelling and ensuring safe operation. Unlike most of the existing methods, the proposed method can handle high-dimensional covariates with the informative covariate identification procedure and sparse and irregularly spaced measurements, that is, does not require complete or dense observations. The main innovation of the proposed method is that we model the variation coming from covariates and the variation left conditioned on covariates, such that the functional principal component analysis and Gaussian process can be conducted in a unified manner. Further, we also propose a systematic approach to identify important covariates in the hypothesis testing context. The methodology is demonstrated on applications in nuclear engineering and healthcare and simulation studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Improved Analysis of the Thermal Buckling of Silicon Sheet

Buckling problems on the production of wide and thin silicon sheet are discussed. Buckling occurs in all of the processes which are investigated for their potential in mass producing wide silicon sheet for use in making solar cells. It is a fact that the processes which produce good ribbon 2 cm in width do not yield the same quality product at 10 cm in width. Buckling develops precisely because the sheets are wide and very very thin. The buckling of very thin cantilever plates due to temperature variations in the axial direction is considered. The temperature variation in the width direction was determined. Axial temperature variations which cause very thin plates to buckle in a torsional mode are demonstrated. It is assumed that the particular variation of the stress function in the width direction and thereafter the analysis is exact.

Dillon, O. W., Jr.↗

An application of extremal field guidance in statistical low thrust guidance analysis

The subject of this paper is the application of extremal field guidance to the covariance analysis of low thrust retargeting guidance. The general procedure for low thrust navigation analysis is briefly reviewed. The basic equations of trajectory optimization and extremal field guidance are presented with emphasis on the low thrust problem. The adopted formulation includes thruster on-off times as control variables and accounts for the effects of model parameter variations. A method of solution of the guidance equations is outlined; and the application of the solution in a covariance analysis, including a procedure for the treatment of model parameter variations as either biases or first order Gauss-Markov stochastic processes, is discussed.

Jacobson, R. A.↗

Wind Tunnel Investigation of Ground Wind Loads for Ares Launch Vehicle

A three year program was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Aeroelasticity Branch (AB) and Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) with the primary objective to acquire scaled steady and dynamic ground-wind loads (GWL) wind-tunnel data for rollout, on-pad stay, and on-pad launch configurations for the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle (FTV). The experimental effort was conducted to obtain an understanding of the coupling of aerodynamic and structural characteristics that can result in large sustained wind-induced oscillations (WIO) on such a tall and slender launch vehicle and to generate a unique database for development and evaluation of analytical methods for predicting steady and dynamic GWL, especially those caused by vortex shedding, and resulting in significant WIO. This paper summarizes the wind-tunnel test program that employed two dynamically-aeroelastically scaled GWL models based on the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle. The first model tested, the GWL Checkout Model (CM), was a relatively simple model with a secondary objective of restoration and development of processes and methods for design, fabrication, testing, and data analysis of a representative ground wind loads model. In addition, parametric variations in surface roughness, Reynolds number, and protuberances (on/off) were investigated to determine effects on GWL characteristics. The second windtunnel model, the Ares I-X GWL Model, was significantly more complex and representative of the Ares I-X FTV and included the addition of simplified rigid geometrically-scaled models of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Mobile Launch Platform (MLP) and Launch Complex 39B primary structures. Steady and dynamic base bending moment as well as model response and steady and unsteady pressure data was acquired during the testing of both models. During wind-tunnel testing of each model, flow conditions (speed and azimuth) where significant WIO occurred, were identified and thoroughly investigated. Scaled data from the Ares I-X GWL model test was used in the determination of worst-case loads for the analysis of Ares I-X FTV design wind conditions. Finally, this paper includes a brief discussion of the limited full-scale GWL data acquired during the rollout and on-pad stay of the Ares I-X FTV that was launched from KSC on October 28, 2009.

Keller, Donald F.↗

Impact of three-dimensional hot-spot flow asymmetry on ion-temperature measurements in inertial confinement fusion experiments

Three-dimensional (3-D) implosion asymmetries lead to signficant variations in ion-temperature measurements in inertial confinement fusion experiments. We present an analytical method to generalize the physical properties of velocity variance in the Brysk ion-temperature model. This analysis provides a consistent explanation for the 3-D effects of inferred ion-temperature variations for various single modes and multimodes modeled by the deceleration-phase hydrocode DEC3D and the neutron transport code IRIS3D . The effect of the hot-spot ow asymmetry on variations in ion-temperature measurement is shown uniquely determined by a complete set of six hot-spot flow parameters. An approximated solution to the minimum inferred ion temperature is derived and shown to be close to the thermal ion temperature for low mode l = 1, which exhibits the largest anisotropic velocity variance in the single-mode spectrum. In conclusion, the isotropic velocity variance for low mode l = 2 is shown to result in the minimum inferred ion temperatures being well above the thermal ion temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗

Relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and stream water across watersheds of the National Ecological Observation Network

The timescales associated with precipitation moving through watersheds reveal processes that are critical to understanding many hydrologic systems. Measurements of environmental stable water isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) have been used as tracers to study hydrologic timescales by examining how long it takes for incoming precipitation tracers become stream discharge, yet limited measurements both spatially and temporally have bounded macroscale evaluations so far. Here in this observation driven study across North American biomes within the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), we examined δ 18 O and δ 2 H stable water isotope in precipitation (δP) and stream water (δQ) at 26 co-located sites. With an average 54 precipitation samples and 139 stream water samples per site collected over 2014–2022, assessment of local meteoric water lines and local stream water lines showed geographic variation across North America. Taking the ratio of estimated seasonal amplitudes of δP and δQ to calculate young water fractions (F yw ), showed a Fyw range from 1% to 93% with most sites having F yw below 20%. Calculate d mean transit times (MTT) based on a gamma convolution model showed a MTT range from 0.10 to 13.2 years, with half of the sites having MTT estimates lower than 2 years. Significant correlations were found between the F yw and watershed area, longest flow length, and the longest flow length/slope. Significant correlations were found between MTT and site latitude, longitude, slope, clay fraction, temperature, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation frequency. The significant correlations between water timescale metrics and the environmental characteristics we report share some similarities with those reported in prior studies, demonstrating that these quantities are primarily driven by site or area specific factors. The analysis of isotope data presented here provides important constraints on isotope variation in North American biomes and the timescales of water movement through NEON study sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

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