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DOE OSTI2020

Paleo-Megadroughts and Abrupt Climate Changes in the Speleothem Records. Final report

This project is motivated by the speleothem isotope records in Asia, which show regional responses in the hydrologic cycle to different climate forcings. Speleothem isotopic records are typically interpreted in terms of local precipitation variations or monsoon intensity. Our study demonstrates that non-local processes also play an important role. We started this project to understand the regional difference in speleothem isotopic composition between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day. The record in Southwest China showed greater depletion during the LGM compared to those in East China. Our modeling and analysis showed that speleothems record, in addition, large scale changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture transport and their subsequent impact on precipitation. We developed an algorithm to partition total precipitation according to their formation dynamics, namely into frontal and non-frontal precipitation, and showed that the two have different trends and hence different causal mechanism. We then focused our subsequent attention on circulation impacts on precipitation changes. We applied a machine learning algorithm to detect rainbands in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product, and showed that the seasonal migrations of the rainbands are tied to the seasonal migrations of the jet stream, in particular the northerlies of the jet meanders. These northerlies, in turn, are partly topographic Rossby waves excited as the upstream westerlies impinge on the Tibetan Plateau. The seasonal variations of these upstream westerlies thus contribute to the seasonal movements of the rainbands and regional precipitation changes. Our analysis of the modern precipitation isotope record further confirms the importance of jet stream changes in the isotopic variations and shows that isotope-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality, with less pronounced northward migration of the jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of beam ion driven Alfvén eigenmode stability induced by Tungsten contamination in EAST

Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) activity is observed in the EAST high β N and low B T discharge 93910, operation scenario dedicated to explore the ITER baseline scenario. AEs are triggered after the plasma is contaminated by Tungsten that causes an abrupt variation of the thermal plasma and energetic particles (EPs) profiles. The aim of the present study is to analyze the AE stability in the 93910 discharge using the gyro-fluid code FAR3d, identifying the AE stability trends by comparing the plasma before and after the Tungsten contamination. Tungsten contamination causes the destabilization of Toroidal AEs (TAE) and Energetic particle modes (EPMs) in the same frequency range and radial location with respect to the experimental observation and M3D-K/GTAW code results. Next, a set of parametric studies are performed to analyze the effect of the thermal plasma and EP parameters on the AE stability. The analysis indicates a lower EP β threshold for the AEs destabilization if the EP energy increases, an improved AE stability of on-axis NBI configurations due to the stronger continuum damping in the inner plasma region as well as a large enhancement of the EP drive as the thermal ion density increases due to a higher ratio of the EP and Alfven velocities. Consequently, the simulations indicate the increment of the thermal ion density after the Tungsten contamination could be the main cause of the AE/EPM destabilization.

AE↗

NASA NTRS2024

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗

NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗

DOE OSTI2020

Drag Coefficient Analysis of Arbitrary Fragment Geometry with Emphasis on Meshing Sensitivity Studies.

This report characterizes Mach number effects in the hypersonic range from Mach 3 to Mach 7 for an arbitrary, computationally generated fragment. Force and moment coefficients in the x, y, z direction were successfully obtained and resulting trends were compared with theoretical expectations. Three orientations were tested in the form of unit vectors: [1,0,0], [0,1,0], and [0,0,1]; these represent the i, j, k principle axes. The final results ultimately showcased a trend very similar to that shown in previous literature — drag coefficients for a given orientation decreased with increasing Mach number by a very small amount in the hypersonic range. It was therefore concluded that the aerodynamic quantities used to obtain the fragment trajectory at low hypersonic Mach numbers (such as Mach 3) can be used to characterize the aerodynamic qualities at higher hypersonic Mach numbers (Mach 5, 7) with a reasonably small margin. A sensitivity study was also conducted which ultimately defined drag effects as a result of changing grid spacing and normal extrusion parameters for the unstructured tetrahedral mesh used in the simulation. Further work can be done in the form of experimental validation, specifically with regards to wind tunnels and ballistic range testing. Error can be reduced by testing more mesh variabilities and capturing a larger amount of fragment orientations. The results for force and moment characteristics dependent on meshing parameters and high Mach numbers are satisfactory and consistent with expected trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1972

Lunar crater origin in the maria from analysis of Orbiter photographs.

Attempt to diagnose the origin of craters that are predominantly between 100 and 2000 m diam by the use of a statistical method that is capable of measuring both the chaining and clustering of craters. It is argued that craters with aligned centers that trend in parallel directions over vast distances are exclusively of internal origin. Strong evidence that a high proportion of the chains are of tectonic origin is found. Other criteria, such as a systematic change in the number density of craters over a test area or an excess of craters on a recent lava flow, are also used to argue for endogenic craters. Using all the data together, it is found that at least 33%, but not more than 51%, of the craters sampled are of endogenic origin. It is shown that the flux of meteoroids has not necessarily varied for the past few billion years.

Fielder, G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Wrf-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNO(x) Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Cloud physics↗

NASA NTRS2014

A WRF-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNOx Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were applied to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2014

Impact of Satellite Viewing-Swath Width on Global and Regional Aerosol Optical Thickness Statistics and Trends

We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product to assess the impact of reduced swath width on global and regional AOT statistics and trends. Alongtrack and across-track sampling strategies are employed, in which the full MODIS data set is sub-sampled with various narrow-swath (approximately 400-800 km) and single pixel width (approximately 10 km) configurations. Although view-angle artifacts in the MODIS AOT retrieval confound direct comparisons between averages derived from different sub-samples, careful analysis shows that with many portions of the Earth essentially unobserved, spatial sampling introduces uncertainty in the derived seasonal-regional mean AOT. These AOT spatial sampling artifacts comprise up to 60%of the full-swath AOT value under moderate aerosol loading, and can be as large as 0.1 in some regions under high aerosol loading. Compared to full-swath observations, narrower swath and single pixel width sampling exhibits a reduced ability to detect AOT trends with statistical significance. On the other hand, estimates of the global, annual mean AOT do not vary significantly from the full-swath values as spatial sampling is reduced. Aggregation of the MODIS data at coarse grid scales (10 deg) shows consistency in the aerosol trends across sampling strategies, with increased statistical confidence, but quantitative errors in the derived trends are found even for the full-swath data when compared to high spatial resolution (0.5 deg) aggregations. Using results of a model-derived aerosol reanalysis, we find consistency in our conclusions about a seasonal-regional spatial sampling artifact in AOT Furthermore, the model shows that reduced spatial sampling can amount to uncertainty in computed shortwave top-ofatmosphere aerosol radiative forcing of 2-3 W m(sup−2). These artifacts are lower bounds, as possibly other unconsidered sampling strategies would perform less well. These results suggest that future aerosol satellite missions having significantly less than full-swath viewing are unlikely to sample the true AOT distribution well enough to obtain the statistics needed to reduce uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing of climate.

remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Workforce planning: a review of methodologies

Workforce planning deals with determining the number of employees and associated skills necessary to meet the future operational needs of an organization. A workforce system consists of six elements: recruitment, attrition, promotion, training, retention, and scheduling. Historically, several workforce modeling and analysis methodologies have been developed to capture these elements. This paper reviews the results of workforce and manpower models published within peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2021 to provide an in-depth analysis of current models. The focus of this review is on analytical, simulation, and empirical models found in literature that were collected based on a citation requirement and keyword search criteria. Results demonstrate the trends in workforce modeling research and discuss the common uses of each model type and the advantages/disadvantages related to each model. Based on the common attributes of workforce systems, the discussion focuses on the most frequently used model type for each element and the best use for each model. Lastly, recommendations are made for the development of workforce models that allow the most comprehensive view of the workforce systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Insights into Rotational and Translational Dynamics in Mixtures of Ethylene Glycol and Choline Chloride Using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Techniques

This work examines molecular dynamics and interactions in ethylene glycol–choline chloride (EG–ChCl) mixtures across 0–33 mol % ChCl, spanning the true eutectic region near 17–20 mol % and the commonly used 1:2 formulation. We combine pulsed-field-gradient (PFG) diffusion, fast-field-cycling (FFC) relaxometry, temperature-dependent 13 C T 1 , and nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY) to disentangle local from macroscopic dynamics. PFG and FFC show that both translational and average rotational motions largely track the strong increase in viscosity with ChCl content, with ethylene glycol consistently diffusing faster than the choline cation and no global dynamical anomaly at the eutectic composition. More subtle, site-specific composition effects nevertheless emerge. The ratio of the diffusion coefficient of the hydroxyl group of choline to the diffusion coefficient of the methyl group of choline displays a shallow minimum in the 17–25 mol % region, indicating a modest change in how the hydroxyl-bearing end of choline samples the underlying translational motion relative to the methyl groups. 13 C T 1 analysis shows that rotational correlation times at 25 °C generally increase with ChCl, reflecting viscosity-coupled slowing, while the CH 2 –N α site exhibits a small but reproducible deviation from this monotonic trend near the eutectic. NOESY spectra at similar compositions reveal enhanced cross-relaxation between EG and choline protons, consistent with increased headgroup–solvent contact density rather than a wholesale structural rearrangement. Overall, our multitechnique study demonstrates that EG–ChCl dynamics are predominantly viscosity-dominated, with the eutectic region acting as a subtle dynamical crossover where specific choline segments become maximally coupled to the hydrogen-bond network. These insights refine the structure–dynamics picture of choline-chloride DESs and provide practical guidance for tuning composition in electrochemical, separation, and catalytic applications.

diffusion↗

DOE OSTI2023

The influence of counterion structure identity on conductivity, dynamical correlations, and ion transport mechanisms in polymerized ionic liquids

We used equilibrium and non-equilibrium atomistic simulations to probe the influence of anion chemistry on the true conductivity, dynamical correlations, and ion transport mechanisms in polymeric ionic liquids. An inverse correlation was found between anion self-diffusivities, ionic mobilities, and the anion size for spherical anions. While some larger asymmetric anions had higher diffusivities than smaller spherical anions, their diffusivities and mobilities did not exhibit a direct correlation to the anion volumes. Here, the conductivity and anion dynamical correlations also followed the same trends as displayed by the diffusivity and mobility of anions. All the systems we examined displayed positively correlated motion among anions, suggesting a contribution that enhances the conductivity beyond the ideal Nernst–Einstein value. Analysis of ion transport mechanisms demonstrated very similar hopping characteristics among the spherical anions despite differences in their sizes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Pressure on NO x Entitlement and Reaction Timescales in a Premixed Axial Jet-In-Crossflow

This paper investigates the pressure dependency of a lean premixed jet injected into a lean vitiated crossflow with an experimentally verified detailed chemistry computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and 53 species considered. Experimental data were taken in an axially staged combustor with an optically accessible test section, allowing the use of particle image velocimetry (PIV) and CH* chemiluminescence techniques as well as point measurement of species concentration, temperature, and pressure. The experimental data cases at one, three, and five atmospheres were selected to describe the flame stabilization dependency on pressure and gain the required knowledge for an extrapolation to engine condition. Simulated exit nitrogen oxide levels were validated with experimental emission data, and a global emission trend for the NO reduction at elevated pressure and constant turbine inlet temperature level was defined. The nitrogen oxide benefit at elevated operating pressure was justified with the significantly smaller flame surface area: the analysis of the simulated spanwise and top-view profiles showed a relatively short receded core flame with nitrogen oxide production in the center at high pressure relative to a longer and larger shear layer flame at atmospheric condition that produced NO toward the inner and outer side of the flame. Furthermore, decomposition of the Damköhler number revealed the strong influence of the reaction timescales with higher reaction rates at elevated pressure, along with a moderate influence of the turbulent timescales, showing higher turbulence intensity in the lee-side recirculation zone at lower pressure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2022 Edition

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2021, and is based on data from roughly 2.5 million systems. New to the report this year is an expanded coverage of paired PV-plus-storage systems, including details on system design and pricing trends. The report describes trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state, including preliminary data for first half of 2022 -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark Tracking System for Performance Monitoring

Benchmarking is essential for high-performance software development, particularly for monitoring performance across code iterations. This project focused on enhancing the benchmarking process for Lamellar, an asynchronous runtime for High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Prior to this work, benchmark results were difficult to track and compare across code versions, presenting significant challenges in identifying performance regressions and long-term trends. The primary objective was to establish a systematic, reproducible approach for measuring performance and detecting regressions following code commits. Our methodology involved three key components: standardizing benchmark outputs, implementing data versioning, and developing analysis tools. We standardized the benchmark output format to JSON Line records containing specific fields (execution time, hardware specifications, and environmental variables). To address data management challenges, we evaluated several options and eventually chose a git repository dedicated to benchmark data. We developed a suite of Python tools that processed benchmark results, enriched them with metadata, and facilitated search in the repository. The resulting system enables more efficient filtering and comparison of performance metrics across commit histories, hardware configurations, and benchmark variants through a unified query interface. Our implementation reduces computational overhead by first checking for existing results through configuration matching before initiating new benchmark runs, thereby conserving resources. The system has been validated by Lamellar developers. It organizes results by benchmark type and build configurations for efficient retrieval. Future developments include a planned Large Language Model interface for predicting benchmark performance, incorporating the criterion package for statistical analysis, which will enable automated detection of statistically significant performance changes, and integration with continuous integration pipelines. Despite these enhancements being reserved for future work, this project has successfully provided the Lamellar development team with a framework for maintaining consistent performance standards and identifying optimization opportunities across workloads and hardware environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1976

Vibratory hub load data reduction and analysis from the reverse velocity rotor wind tunnel test, phase 2B

The vibratory hub loads data analysis from the reverse velocity rotor wind tunnel test is reported. Vibratory loads were obtained from the rotating hub balance and also by synthesis of generalized coordinates from the blade flap bending moments. Load trends were defined as a function of speed, rotor thrust and 2 per rev cyclic from each of the data methods. These trends were compared to determine the degree of agreement between each method and provide substantiation for the generalized coordinate approach.

Taylor, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Application of Landsat data to wetland study and land use classification in West Tennessee

Landsat data were employed in determining land use of a 32,300-hectare watershed area within the Obion-Forked Deer River Basin in northwest Tennessee. Black and white transparency chips for all four wavelength bands were interpreted by use of a video-input analog/digital automatic analysis and classification facility; densitometric methods showed that wetlands, urban areas, agricultural lands and forests could be discriminated by analysis of band 6 or 7 together with band 4 or 5. Comparison with high- and low-altitude photography indicated that the Landsat data could provide sufficiently accurate resource information and determine drainage trends.

Jones, N. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Solar energy storage via liquid filled cans - Test data and analysis

This paper describes the design of a solar thermal storage test facility with water-filled metal cans as heat storage medium and also presents some preliminary tests results and analysis. This combination of solid and liquid mediums shows unique heat transfer and heat contents characteristics and will be well suited for use with solar air systems for space and hot water heating. The trends of the test results acquired thus far are representative of the test bed characteristics while operating in the various modes.

Saha, H.↗

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