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NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have approximately 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and. afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have approximately 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error eo. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error eo. We find eo can decrease the global temperature trend by approximately 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors ed and ec present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry. ed arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature and ec is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error ed can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observation made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error ec is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the error ec on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error ec is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by approximately 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+/-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the entire error is placed in the am data while in the other it is placed in the pm data. Global temperature trend is increased or decreased by about 0.03 K/decade depending upon this placement. Taking into account all random errors and systematic errors our analysis of MSU observations leads us to conclude that a conservative estimate of the global warming is 0. 11 (+-) 0.04 K/decade during 1980 to 1998.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analysis Using Satellite Observations

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) observations are reviewed in the context of weather and climate applications. All the data sets discussed are the result of mergers of information from multiple satellites and gauges, where available. The focus of the talk is on TRMM-based 3 hr. analyses that use TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3 hr. resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) at the end of 2002. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg N-50 deg S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. The 3-hourly analysis is placed in the context of two research products of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The first is the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown is the GPCP daily, 1 deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the GPCP products are outlined. The outcome should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including real-time 3-hourly (or finer) analyses over much of the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses (3-Hourly to Monthly) Using TRMM, SSM/I and other Satellite Information

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENS0 variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 deg. latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is discussed. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg. latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O deg. N-50 deg. S. Examples are shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of Multiple Nozzles on Asymmetric Ejector Performance

This paper presents a comparison of a single nozzle and a dual nozzle strut based ejector. The results are focused on the fluid properties in the ejector duct. The research focused on choking mechanisms, mass flow entrainment, and mixing duct pressure distributions. The two ejectors were tests at equivalent primary mass flow rates. This corresponds to chamber pressures ranging from 100 psi to 900 psi in the single nozzle strut and 50 psi to 450 psi in the dual nozzle strut. Secondary flow was drawn from the lab at atmospheric pressure, and was not controlled. The secondary flow was found to choke at a value of 2.3 lb/s for a primary mass flow rate at approximately 2.1 lb/s for both ejectors. This choke was believed to be a mass addition choke rather than a traditional aerodynamic choke. The mixing duct pressure distribution exhibited two distinct trends at "low pressure" trend and at "high pressure" trend. For the low pressure trend, the mixing length for the ejectors remained fixed around 20 inches, regardless of the chamber pressure. For the higher pressure trend, the mixing length was considerably longer and increased with increasing chamber pressure. At high chamber pressures (high mass flow rates), a supersonic core flow was present at the exit of the duct. For these cases, the two streams did not have time to mix by the end of the duct.

Lineberry, D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Satellite Sounder-Based OLR-, Cloud- and Atmospheric Temperature Climatologies for Climate Analyses

Global energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system may change due to natural and man-made climate variations. For example, changes in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) can be regarded as a crucial indicator of climate variations. Clouds play an important role -still insufficiently assessed in the global energy balance on all spatial and temporal scales, and satellites provide an ideal platform to measure cloud and large-scale atmospheric variables simultaneously. The TOVS series of satellites were the first to provide this type of information since 1979. OLR [Mehta and Susskind], cloud cover and cloud top pressure [Susskind et al] are among the key climatic parameters computed by the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A algorithm using mainly the retrieved temperature and moisture profiles. AIRS, regarded as the new and improved TOVS , has a much higher spectral resolution and greater S/N ratio, retrieving climatic parameters with higher accuracy. First we present encouraging agreements between MODIS and AIRS cloud top pressure (C(sub tp) and effective (A(sub eff), a product of infrared emissivity at 11 microns and physical cloud cover or A(sub c)) cloud fraction seasonal and interannual variabilities for selected months. Next we present validation efforts and preliminary trend analyses of TOVS-retrieved C(sub tp) and A(sub eff). For example, decadal global trends of the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-D2 P(sub c), and A(sub eff)/A(sub c), values are similar. Furthermore, the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-AVHRR [available since 19831 cloud fractions correlate even more strongly, including regional trends. We also present TOVS and AIRS OLR validation effort results and (for the longer-term TOVS Pathfinder Path-A dataset) trend analyses. OLR interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and both from the AIRS [Susskind et al] and TOVS OLR computations are in remarkably good agreement. Global monthly mean CERES and TOVS OLR time series show very good agreement in absolute values also. Finally, we will assess correlations among long-term trends of selected parameters, derived simultaneously from the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A datase

Molnar, Gyula I.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Hybrid Modeling Improves Health and Performance Monitoring

Scientific Monitoring Inc. was awarded a Phase I Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project by NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center to create a new, simplified health-monitoring approach for flight vehicles and flight equipment. The project developed a hybrid physical model concept that provided a structured approach to simplifying complex design models for use in health monitoring, allowing the output or performance of the equipment to be compared to what the design models predicted, so that deterioration or impending failure could be detected before there would be an impact on the equipment's operational capability. Based on the original modeling technology, Scientific Monitoring released I-Trend, a commercial health- and performance-monitoring software product named for its intelligent trending, diagnostics, and prognostics capabilities, as part of the company's complete ICEMS (Intelligent Condition-based Equipment Management System) suite of monitoring and advanced alerting software. I-Trend uses the hybrid physical model to better characterize the nature of health or performance alarms that result in "no fault found" false alarms. Additionally, the use of physical principles helps I-Trend identify problems sooner. I-Trend technology is currently in use in several commercial aviation programs, and the U.S. Air Force recently tapped Scientific Monitoring to develop next-generation engine health-management software for monitoring its fleet of jet engines. Scientific Monitoring has continued the original NASA work, this time under a Phase III SBIR contract with a joint NASA-Pratt & Whitney aviation security program on propulsion-controlled aircraft under missile-damaged aircraft conditions.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.

Mecikalski, John↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Review of Recent Changes in Southern Ocean Sea Ice, Their Drivers and Forcings

Over the past 37years, satellite records show an increase in Antarctic sea ice cover that is most pronounced in the period of sea ice growth. This trend is dominated by increased sea ice coverage in the western Ross Sea, and is mitigated by a strong decrease in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. The trends in sea ice areal coverage are accompanied by related trends in yearly duration. These changes have implications for ecosystems, as well as global and regional climate. In this review, we summarize the researchto date on observing these trends, identifying their drivers, and assessing the role of anthropogenic climate change. Whilst the atmosphere is thought to be the primary driver, the ocean is also essential in explaining the seasonality of the trend patterns. Detecting an anthropogenic signal in Antarctic sea ice is particularly challenging for a number of reasons: the expected response is small compared to the very high natural variability of the system; the observational record is relatively short; and the ability of global coupled climate models to faithfully represent the complex Antarctic climate system is in doubt.

Southern Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2018

Linking Improvements in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions to Decreasing Sulfate Wet Deposition by Combining Satellite and Surface Observations with Trajectory Analysis

Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a criteria pollutant, and sulfate (SO42) deposition are major environmental concerns in the eastern U.S. and both have been on the decline for two decades. In this study, we use satellite column SO2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and SO42 wet deposition data from the NADP (National Atmospheric Deposition Program) to investigate the temporal and spatial relationship between trends in SO2 emissions and the downward sulfate wet deposition over the eastern U.S. from 2005 to 2015. To establish the relationship between SO2 emission sources and receptor sites, we conducted a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis using HYSPLIT back trajectories for five selected Air Quality System (AQS) sites - (Hackney, OH, Akron, OH, South Fayette, PA, Wilmington, DE, and Beltsville, MD) - in close proximity to NADP sites with large downward SO42 trends since 2005. Back trajectories were run for three summers (JJA) and three winters (DJF) and used to generate seasonal climatology PSCFs for each site. The OMI SO2 and interpolated NADP sulfate deposition trends were normalized and overlapped with the PSCF, to identify the areas that had the highest contribution to the observed drop. The results suggest that emission reductions along the Ohio River Valley have led to decreases in sulfate deposition in eastern OH and western PA (Hackney, Akron and South Fayette). Farther to the east, emission reductions in southeast PA resulted in improvements in sulfate deposition at Wilmington, DE, while for Beltsville, reductions in both the Ohio River Valley and nearby favorably impacted sulfate deposition. For Beltsville, sources closer than 300km from the site contribute roughly 56% observed deposition trends in winter, and 82% in summer, reflecting seasonal changes in transport pattern as well as faster oxidation and washout of sulfur in summer. This suggests that emissions and wet deposition are linked through not only the location of sources relative to the observing sites, but also to photochemistry and the weather patterns characteristic to the region, as evidenced by a west to east shift in the contribution between winter and summer. The method developed here is applicable to other regions with significant trends such as China and India, and can be used to estimate the potential benefits of emission reduction in those areas.

Acid depostion↗
NASA NTRS2019

Arctic Cloud Radiative Forcing in Contemporary Atmospheric Reanalyses

Arctic clouds play an important role in modifying the surface energy balance. In the Arctic, clouds are thought to influence the underlying sea ice cover through changing downwelling longwave radiative fluxes to the surface and through the selective reflection of the shortwave flux in summer. Atmospheric reanalyses are generally thought to have a poor representation of cloud processes at high latitudes, although the representation of trends over the perennial Arctic sea ice pack is less well known. Here, atmospheric energy fluxes are examined at the top of the atmosphere from contemporary reanalyses in comparison to satellite measurements from the CERES-EBAF version 4.1 product. The principal reanalyses examined are the NASA MERRA-2, the ECMWF ERA5 and ERA-Interim, the JRA-55, and the regional Arctic System Reanalysis version 2. In agreement with previous observation-based studies, changes with time in the shortwave cloud radiative forcing in reanalyses are found to be negligible despite strong trends in the absorbed shortwave. Over the full satellite period, there is large disagreement in the seasonality of longwave cloud forcing trends. These trends are reduced during the CERES-EBAF observing period (2003-present). An examination of these trends with respect to sea ice cover changes in each of the reanalyses is conducted.

Cullather, Richard I.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Machine Learning Examination of Hydroxyl Radical Differences Among Model Simulations for CCMI-1

Hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting CH4 lifetime (TCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of TCH4 differences among ten models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D) due mostly to clouds, mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapor, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in TCH4, while isoprene, CH4, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead O3 column, and temperature account for little-to-no model variation in CH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in CH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in TCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapor on OH and CH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5% decade(exp -1), respectively. The responses due to NOx, O3 column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies, though a discrepancy in the CH4 response highlights a need for further examination of the CH4 feedback on the abundance of OH.

Julie M Nicely↗

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