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Probabalistic Risk Analysis and Thermal Margin Process for an Inflatable Aeroshell

Uncertainties always exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. These uncertainties are mitigated in the design by ap-plying margin and factors of safety to the TPS. Entry vehicle TPS is often conservatively over-sized for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by stacking worst-case scenarios together. Additionally, the current TPS design and margin process used by NASA offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the reliability of the heat shield performance [1,3]. A probabilistic margin process can be used to calculate the amount of TPS margin necessary to survive a given entry heat load at a specified level of risk [2,3,4]. The vehicle’s initial entry state (entry velocity, flight path angle, and entry mass) determines the expected atmospheric entry environmental conditions and resulting heat load that the entry vehicle will experience. If there is flexibility in the entry state, then this process can be used to select an appropriate combination of entry state parameters and TPS size to target a desired reentry reliability. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and TPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive TPS margin from being applied. The probabilistic TPS margin process has been performed to determine TPS thickness and entry heating constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low Earth Orbit Flight Experiment of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) flight project. The process is used in a manner to size the entry heat load for a given flexible TPS (FTPS) thickness so that it meets project reliability standards while allowing the FTPS and the underlying inflatable structure (IS) to be pushed to adequately high temperatures. Since the LOFTID project is an experimental flight demonstration, it is de-sired to drive the FTPS and IS to temperatures that cover a large range of their thermal response models’ applicability. This will allow the thermal response models to be better improved and validated post-flight using LOFTID’s extensive instrumentation embedded within the aeroshell. The presentation demonstrates how uncertainty analysis is carried out using an end-to-end Monte Carlo process where three separate Monte Carlo simulations are run in sequence. The first Monte Carlo simulation operates on the entry trajectory model to generate trajectory parameter dispersions that are fed into the second Monte Carlo simulation. The second Monte Carlo simulation operates on the aerothermodynamics model to generate aeroheating parameter dispersions that are fed into the third Monte Carlo simulation. The third Monte Carlo simulation operates on the FTPS material thermal response model to generate the final FTPS/IS thermal response dispersions. The end-to-end Monte Carlo simulation propagates the uncertainties of each model into the next to quantify the resulting uncertainty of the FTPS/IS thermal response. The fractional contributions of the uncertain parameters in the trajectory, aerothermal, and thermal response models to the variance in the FTPS/IS thermal response is determined as a byproduct of the Monte Carlo analysis. The structural uncertainty of the FTPS thermal response model is evaluated by flight relevant ground testing and model error analysis using test measurements. This probabilistic TPS margin process had never been applied to an entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven A. Tobin↗

Fluid Dynamic Verification Experiments on STS-70

Fluid dynamic experiments were flown on STS-70 as phase two of the engineering evaluation of the first bioreactor Engineering Development Unit (EDU#1). The phase one experiments were comparative cell cultures in identical units on earth and onboard STS-70. In phase two, two types of fluid dynamic experiments were performed. Qualitative comparisons of the basic flow patterns were evaluated with the use of 'dye' streaklines formed from alternate injections of either a mild acid or base solution into the external flow loop that was then perfused into the vessel. The presence of Bromothymol Blue in the fluid then caused color changes from yellow to blue or vice versa, indicating the basic fluid motions. This reversible change could be repeated as desired. In the absence of significant density differences in the fluid, the flow patterns in space should be the same as on earth. Video tape records of the flow patterns for a wide range of operating conditions were obtained. The second type of fluid dynamic experiment was the quantitative evaluation of the trajectories of solid beads of various densities and sizes. The beads were introduced into the vessel and the paths recorded on video tape, with the vessel operated at various rotation rates and flow perfusion rates. Because of space limitations, the video camera was placed as close as possible to the vessel, resulting in significant optical distortion. This report describes the analysis methods to obtain comparisons between the in-flight fluid dynamics and numerical models of the flow field. The methods include optical corrections to the video images and calculation of the bead trajectories for given operating conditions and initial bead locations.

Kleis, Stanley J.↗

Embedding Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) Modules in SERPENT for Higher Fidelity Advanced Reactor Analysis

When a neutron born in fission thermalizes to the order of $k$ $B$ $T$, it’s de-Broglie wavelength and energy approach the order of inter-atomic spacing and elementary lattice oscillations, respectively. $S$($a,β,t$) or the scattering law, uuantify these temperature-dependent crystallographic contributions to total cross section (or reaction rate). In a Monte Carlo analysis, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of $S$($a,β,t$) are loaded to memory from “A Compact ENDF” (ACE) files for stochastically selecting thermal scattered neutron trajectories. In this work, novel neural thermal scattering (NeTS) modules for $S$($a,β,t$) CDFs are designed, trained, serialized and embedded within SERPENT using Python’s limited C-API for on-the-fly deployment of crystalline graphite $S$($a,β,t$) sampling. Torchscript tracing and Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation streamline neural inference on NVIDIA GPUs with CUDA libraries. Demonstrations of bare sphere thermalization of fast and thermal sources show excellent agreement between embedded NeTS in SERPENT and MCNP. With an explicit model of the reactor, NeTS can predict on-the-fly changes in TREAT neutron spectra as a function of local temperature, which can serve to improve transient and accident predictions in a multiphysics analysis framework. This framework can be further extended to account on-the-fly for changes in local graphitic microstructure to scattering cross sections, and outlines a novel coupling of modern machine learning with state-of-the-art reactor physics methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Experiments and analysis concerning the use of external burning to reduce aerospace vehicle transonic drag

The external combustion of hydrogen to reduce transonic drag was investigated. A control volume analysis is developed and indicates that the specific impulse performance of external burning is competitive with other forms of airbreathing propulsion and depends on the fuel-air ratio, freestream Mach number, and the severity of the base drag. A method is presented for sizing fuel injectors for a desired fuel-air ratio in the unconfined stream. A two-dimensional Euler analysis is also presented which indicates that the total axial force generated by external burning depends on the total amount of energy input and is independent of the transverse and streamwise distribution of heat addition. Good agreement between the Euler and control volume analysis is demonstrated. Features of the inviscid external burning flowfield are discussed. Most notably, a strong compression forms at the sonic line within the burning stream which may induce separation of the plume and prevent realization of the full performance potential. An experimental program was conducted in a Mach 1.26 free-jet to demonstrate drag reduction on a simple expansion ramp geometry, and verify hydrogen-air stability limits at external burning conditions. Stable combustion appears feasible to Mach number of between 1.4 and 2 depending on the vehicle flight trajectory. Drag reduction is demonstrated on the expansion ramp at Mach 1.26; however, force levels showed little dependence on fuel pressure or altitude in contrast to control volume analysis predictions. Various facility interference mechanisms and scaling issues were studied and are discussed.

Trefny, Charles J.↗

Analysis of ALTAIR 1998 Meteor Radar Data

We describe a new analysis of a set of 32 UHF meteor radar traces recorded with the 422 MHz ALTAIR radar facility in November 1998. Emphasis is on the velocity measurements, and on inferences that can be drawn from them regarding the meteor masses and mass densities. We find that the velocity vs altitude data can be fitted as quadratic functions of the path integrals of the atmospheric densities vs distance, and deceleration rates derived from those fits all show the expected behavior of increasing with decreasing altitude. We also describe a computer model of the coupled processes of collisional heating, radiative cooling, evaporative cooling and ablation, and deceleration - for meteors composed of defined mixtures of mineral constituents. For each of the cases in the data set we ran the model starting with the measured initial velocity and trajectory inclination, and with various trial values of the quantity mPs 2 (the initial mass times the mass density squared), and then compared the computed deceleration vs altitude curves vs the measured ones. In this way we arrived at the best-fit values of the mPs 2 for each of the measured meteor traces. Then further, assuming various trial values of the density Ps, we compared the computed mass vs altitude curves with similar curves for the same set of meteors determined previously from the measured radar cross sections and an electrostatic scattering model. In this way we arrived at estimates of the best-fit mass densities Ps for each of the cases. Keywords meteor ALTAIR radar analysis 1 Introduction This paper describes a new analysis of a set of 422 MHz meteor scatter radar data recorded with the ALTAIR High-Power-Large-Aperture radar facility at Kwajalein Atoll on 18 November 1998. The exceptional accuracy/precision of the ALTAIR tracking data allow us to determine quite accurate meteor trajectories, velocities and deceleration rates. The measurements and velocity/deceleration data analysis are described in Sections II and III. The main point of this paper is to use these deceleration rate data, together with results from a computer model, to determine values of the quantities mPs 2 (the meteor mass times its material density squared); and further, by combining these m s 2 values with meteor mass estimates for the same set of meteors determined separately from measured radar scattering

Zinn, J.↗

Analysis of IUE Observations of Hydrogen in Comets

The 15-years worth of hydrogen Lyman-alpha observations of cometary comae obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite had gone generally unanalyzed because of two main modeling complications. First, the inner comae of many bright (gas productive) comets are often optically thick to solar Lyman-alpha radiation. Second, even in the case of a small comet (low gas production) the large IUE aperture is quite small as compared with the immense size of the hydrogen coma, so an accurate model which properly accounts for the spatial distribution of the coma is required to invert the infrared brightnesses to column densities and finally to H atom production rates. Our Monte Carlo particle trajectory model (MCPTM), which for the first time provides the realistic full phase space distribution of H atoms throughout the coma has been used as the basis for the analysis of IUE observations of the inner coma. The MCPTM includes the effects of the vectorial ejection of the H atoms upon dissociation of their parent species (H2O and OH) and of their partial collisional thermalization. Both of these effects are crucial to characterize the velocity distribution of the H atoms. This combination of the MCPTM and spherical radiative transfer code had already been shown to be successful in understanding the moderately optically thick coma of comet P/Giacobini-Zinner and the coma of comet Halley that varied from being slightly to very optically thick. Both of these comets were observed during solar minimum conditions. Solar activity affects both the photochemistry of water and the solar Lyman-alpha radiation flux. The overall plan of this program here was to concentrate on comets observed by IUE at other time during the solar cycle, most importantly during the two solar maxima of 1980 and 1990. Described herein are the work performed and the results obtained.

Combi, Michael R.↗

A guidance-motivated sensitivity analysis of an aero-assisted boost vehicle

A simple model of an aero-assisted booster is used to examine the contributions of propulsion system type, aerodynamic lift and flight trajectory to the efficiency with which payloads can be placed into low earth orbit. The higher propulsive efficiency of ramjet and scramjet propulsion has the potential of increasing the payload mass ratio significantly. The contributions of turbojet propulsion and aerodynamic lift are less significant. The additional complexity involved in using aerodynamic propulsion and lift requires dealing with a more comprehensive set of design variables than for rocket boosters. The approach taken is to derive a set of sensitivity functions which relate booster performance to the design variables. The problems of optimum mixing of aerodynamic lift with thrust and determining the optimal boost trajectory is treated. The potential payload capacity of a horizontal take-off air-breathing boost vehicle is examined. The optimization problem which considers propulsive efficiency, aerodynamic configuration, and control and guidance issues is discussed.

Taylor, L. W.↗

Systems analysis of Mars solar electric propulsion vehicles

Mission performance, mass, initial power, and cost are determined for solar electric propulsion vehicles across a range of payload masses, reference powers, and mission trajectories. Thick radiation shielding is added to arrays using indium phosphide or III-V multijunction solar cells to reduce the damage incurred through the radiation belts. Special assessments of power management and distribution systems, atmospheric drag, and energy storage are made. It is determined that atmospheric drag is of no great concern and that the energy storage used in countering drag is unnecessary. A scheme to package the arrays, masts, and ion thrusters into a single fairing is presented.

Hickman, J. M.↗

An Analysis of the Internal Truth Files for a CAST 4000 GPS Simulator for Two Rocket Launches and One Weather Balloon Flight

The CAST GPS 4000 simulator can create scenarios using external trajectories. The following information must be provided: time from a given epoch (a constant sampling rate must be used); position, velocity and acceleration in Earth Centered Earth Fixed (ECEF) coordinates; elements of the matrix that transforms from the body-axis coordinate system to the ECEF frame; and the angular velocity of the body-axis system relative to ECEF coordinates. The initial latitude, longitude, altitude, and UTC time must also be provided during the scenario setup. The simulator recomputes the positions and velocities using the given accelerations and a constant jerk model. The results are the internal "truth file".

Simpson, James C.↗

Space shuttle vehicle rocket plume impingement study for separation analysis. Tasks 2 and 3: Definition and preliminary plume impingement analysis for the MSC booster

The results are presented of a space shuttle plume impingement study for the Manned Spacecraft Center configuration. This study was conducted as two tasks which were to (1) define the orbiter main stage engine exhaust plume flow field, and (2) define the plume impingement heating, force and resulting moment environments on the booster during the staging maneuver. To adequately define these environments during the staging maneuver and allow for deviation from the nominal separation trajectory, a multitude of relative orbiter/booster positions are analyzed which map the region that contains the separation trajectories. The data presented can be used to determine a separation trajectory which will result in acceptable impingement heating rates, forces, and the resulting moments. The data, presented in graphical form, include the effect of roll, pitch and yaw maneuvers for the booster. Quasi-steady state analysis methods were used with the orbiter engine operating at full thrust. To obtain partial thrust results, simple ratio equations are presented.

Wojciechowski, C. J.↗

Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

A real time dashboard was developed in order to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. In addition to shared situational awareness the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial set of metrics computed on operational data. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017; Charlotte-Douglas International Airport. Analysis and metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of metrics across delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

integrated arrival departure surface operations↗

Near-Field Separation Analysis of SLS Block-1 and Block-1B Secondary Payloads

The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program Block-1 and Block-1B missions are expected to carry a number of CubeSat secondary payloads (SPL) to space, where they will be ejected from internal SLS structures to begin their own missions. This near-field ejection process must be closely evaluated to ensure that no SPL contacts the SLS structures, as contacts could result in SPL component damage, mission loss, or aberrant SPL trajectories. To this end, multiple SPL ejection events were analyzed for both Block-1 and Block-1B mission configurations using CLVTOPS, a NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed multi-body dynamics, proximity analysis, and visualization toolchain. This paper details the SPL-to-SLS clearance assessment process, with a focus on simulation setup and results as well as SPL design requirement analysis. Relevant CLVTOPS, statistics, and mission backgrounds are covered; important constraints, difficulties, and assumptions are also documented. Furthermore, the importance of SPL housing geometry on near-field vehicle clearance is highlighted, and examples are shown.

Jared Rucker↗

Analysis of aerothermodynamic environment of a Titan aerocapture vehicle

The feasibility of an aerocapture vehicle mission has been emphasized recently for inner and outer planetary missions. Aerocapture involves a system concept which utilizes aerodynamic drag to acquire the velocity reduction necessary to obtain a closed planetary orbit from a hyperbolic flyby trajectory. It has been proposed to use the atmosphere of Titan for braking into a Saturn orbit. This approach for a Saturn orbital mission is expected to cut the interplanetary cruise travel time to Saturn from 8 to 3.5 years. In connection with the preparation of such a mission, it will be necessary to provide a complete analysis of the aerodynamic environment of the Titan aerocapture vehicle. The main objective of the present investigation is, therefore, to determine the extent of convective and radiative heating for the aerocapture vehicle under different entry conditions. This can be essentially accomplished by assessing the heating rates in the stagnation and windward regions of an equivalent body.

Tiwari, S. N.↗

Assessment of velocity/trajectory measurement technologies during a particle capture event

Since the early 1960s, the means to measure the time of flight (TOF) of dust grain within a mechanical detection array has existed, first in the laboratory and then in space experiments. Laboratory hypervelocity dust particle accelerators have used electrostatic detection of charge on accelerated particles for TOF and particle mass detections. These laboratory studies have led to the development of ultra-thin-film sensors that have been used for TOF measurements in dust particle space experiments. The prototypes for such devices were ultra-thin-film capacitors that were used in the OGO series of satellites. The main goal of the experimental work to be described is the development of the capability to determine the velocity vector or trajectory of a dust grain traversing an integrated dust detection array. The results of these studies have shown that the capability of detecting the charge liberated by hypervelocity dust grains with diameters in the micrometer range can be detected. Based on these results, detection systems have been designed to provide a precise analysis of the physical and dynamic properties of micrometer and submicrometer dust grains, namely the design verification unit (DVU). Through unique combinations of in situ detection systems, direct measurements of particle surface charge, velocity, momentum, kinetic energy, and trajectory have been achieved. From these measurements, the remaining physical parameters of mass, size, and density can be determined.

Tanner, William G.↗

Control-inspired design and power optimization of an active mechanical motion rectifier based power takeoff for wave energy converters

Ocean waves have high energy density and are persistent and predictable. Yet, converting wave energy to a useable form remains challenging. A significant hurdle is the oscillatory nature of waves resulting in the alternating loads, which necessitate the use of rectification at some stage of the energy conversion. This research effort presents a novel design of active mechanical motion rectifier (AMMR) for the power takeoff (PTO), which provides enhanced controllability and better power performance when compared to passive mechanical motion rectifiers (MMR). Inspired by transistors used in synchronous electrical rectifiers, the proposed design uses controllable electromagnetic clutches in the mechanical transmission to allow active engagement-disengagement control; thus, rectifying the oscillatory motion into a unidirectional rotation for high energy conversion efficiency and allowing the generator in unidirectional rotation to control the bidirectional wave capture structure for maximizing the power output. A semi-analytical computational approach is developed to efficiently evaluate the optimal power achieved using the proposed AMMR-based PTO and active control. It is found that the AMMR-based PTO design yields a higher optimal power than the previous passive MMR design across the wave spectrum. The influences of generator inertia and reactive power are discussed. Furthermore, the effects of control parameters on the power output and the optimal trajectories are analyzed. Wave tank tests with the AMMR prototype demonstrated the effectiveness of AMMR based PTO design and validated the numerical analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Dynamics of the molecular and atomic mechanisms for the hydrogen-iodine exchange reaction.

The molecular and atomic mechanisms for the hydrogen-iodine exchange reaction are treated theoretically by means of extensive classical trajectories calculated on a reasonable potential energy surface on which the single adjustable parameter is the iodine-core effective charge. The analysis shows the molecular mechanism to be dynamically forbidden, but gives an over-all rate constant for the atomic mechanism that is in agreement with the experimental values. It is indicated that the formation of a weak H2I complex plays an important dynamical role if the atomic mechanism is limited to reactions with collision complexes involving no more than two hydrogen atoms and two iodine atoms. Excellent agreement with experiment is obtained for the rate constant for the recombination I+I+H2 yields I2+H2 and its negative temperature coefficient.

Raff, L. M.↗

NASA Electric Propulsion Program

The described NASA program is to provide the technology base to meet the U.S. future needs in the area of low thrust, high specific impulse propulsion. An electric propulsion system will be needed to augment the Shuttle-IUS Space Transportation System for space missions involving the exploration of the solar system. Plans exist in this connection for comet and asteroid rendezvous, a Saturn and a Mercury orbiter, and a Mars surface sample return. An analysis has shown that electric propulsion can be used to obtain larger payloads, shorter trip times, more mission flexibility, and less complicated trajectories. In addition, electric propulsion has also potential uses for earth orbital missions. Attention is given to the auxiliary propulsion technology program which is to develop a one millipound electron bombardment thrust system, a baseline program concerned with a 3 kilowatt thrust system, ion thruster research, magnetoplasmadynamic thruster research and evaluation, and the use of a mass driver as a reaction mass propulsion system.

Hudson, W. R.↗

An experimental investigation of propeller wakes using a laser Doppler velocimeter

The results of experimental investigations on three single rotation propellers are summarized in this paper. Force measurements showed a definite improvement in efficiency at low advance ratios and in static operation due to use of proplets. Extensive velocity measurements were made using a LDV system. The large amounts of data gathered are presented to reveal clearly the tip vortex streaming back from the propeller. The velocities were also processed using momentum theorem to obtain the thrust and power radial distributions as well as the integrated thrust and power coefficients. The thrust coefficient compared well with force measurements and theoretical prediction from vortex lattice and Goldstein analysis. However, the power coefficient calculated from the momentum analysis was consistently lower than the theoretical or measured values. The measured velocities were also used to compute the vorticity and the trajectory of the tip vortex in the wake behind the propeller.

Sundar, R. M.↗

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