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Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Analysis of the Statistics and Systematics of Limb Anomaly Detections in HST/STIS Transit Images of Europa

Several recent studies derived the existence of plumes on Jupiter’s moon Europa. The only technique that provided multiple detections is the far-ultraviolet imaging observations of Europa in transit of Jupiter taken by the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this study, we reanalyze the three HST/STIS transit images in which Sparks et al. identified limb anomalies as evidence for Europa’s plume activity. After reproducing the results of Sparks et al., we find that positive outliers are similarly present in the images as the negative outliers that were attributed to plume absorption. A physical explanation for the positive outliers is missing. We then investigate the systematic uncertainties and statistics in the images and identify two factors that are crucial when searching for anomalies around the limb. One factor is the alignment between the actual and assumed locations of Europa on the detector. A misalignment introduces distorted statistics, most strongly affecting the limb above the darker trailing hemisphere where the plumes were detected. The second factor is a discrepancy between the observation and the model used for comparison, adding uncertainty in the statistics. When accounting for these two factors, the limb minima (and maxima) are consistent with random statistical occurrence in a sample size given by the number of pixels in the analyzed limb region. The plume candidate features in the three analyzed images can be explained by purely statistical fluctuations and do not provide evidence for absorption by plumes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Applicability of Loads Estimation Techniques Using Sparse Acceleration Sensor Data to Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring

The use of structural health monitoring systems on spacecraft structures can play a crucial role in ensuring the safety, reliability, and longevity of the structure by gathering and analyzing onboard sensor data. Of specific importance is monitoring for excessive loading at critical interfaces as any off-nominal structural excitations experienced by spacecraft structures can cause early unpredicted high structural life consumption or damage. The availability and cost of flight-certified sensors along with the size of spacecraft structures and allowable payload mass drives the need for a method to estimate loads using sparsely-located sensors. Numerous approaches such as physics-based, statistical learning, and physics-enhanced statistical learning algorithms have gained popularity among structural prognostics applications. However, developing noise-robust prediction models to assess loads and structural life predictions from a sparse multi-sensor data acquisition system can be a challenging task. This paper discusses the evaluation of physics-based versus machine-learning algorithms for predicting loads and structural life at mission critical locations on the spacecraft structure using a finite element loads analysis with the application of simulated noise and noise reduction techniques. To estimate the loads from accelerations, the physics-based algorithm leverages a loads transformation matrix from a Craig-Bampton reduced finite element model. A System Equivalent Reduction Expansion Process (SEREP) and a pseudo-inverse approach are considered to expand from the onboard sensor degrees of freedom to the Craig-Bampton model degrees of freedom. The machine learning algorithm provides a data driven solution/mapping of the sensor accelerations to the loads at the mission critical locations using a high dimensionality analysis. Although these strategies produce comparable loads prediction without noise, the limitations of these strategies with incorporating simulated noise and noise reduction techniques with low signal to noise ratio signals are evaluated. The study demonstrates the immense potential of statistical learning algorithms for sparse structural prognostic models and enhancing signal denoising techniques. These findings also highlight the need for noise-resilient prognostic models and low-noise data acquisition systems onboard spacecraft structures.

Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring↗

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties, and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element methods (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗

Surface and Flow Field Measurements on the FAITH Hill Model

A series of experimental tests, using both qualitative and quantitative techniques, were conducted to characterize both surface and off-surface flow characteristics of an axisymmetric, modified-cosine-shaped, wall-mounted hill named "FAITH" (Fundamental Aero Investigates The Hill). Two separate models were employed: a 6" high, 18" base diameter machined aluminum model that was used for wind tunnel tests and a smaller scale (2" high, 6" base diameter) sintered nylon version that was used in the water channel facility. Wind tunnel and water channel tests were conducted at mean test section speeds of 165 fps (Reynolds Number based on height = 500,000) and 0.1 fps (Reynolds Number of 1000), respectively. The ratio of model height to boundary later height was approximately 3 for both tests. Qualitative techniques that were employed to characterize the complex flow included surface oil flow visualization for the wind tunnel tests, and dye injection for the water channel tests. Quantitative techniques that were employed to characterize the flow included Cobra Probe to determine point-wise steady and unsteady 3D velocities, Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to determine 3D velocities and turbulence statistics along specified planes, Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) to determine mean surface pressures, and Fringe Imaging Skin Friction (FISF) to determine surface skin friction (magnitude and direction). This initial report summarizes the experimental set-up, techniques used, data acquired and describes some details of the dataset that is being constructed for use by other researchers, especially the CFD community. Subsequent reports will discuss the data and their interpretation in more detail

Bell, James H.↗

Statistical separability of agricultural cover types in subsets of one to twelve spectral channels

The purpose of this study was to determine the statistical separability of multispectral measurements from agricultural cover types: corn, soybeans, green forage (hay and pasture) and forest, in one to twelve spectral channels. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range 0.4 to 11.7 microns, acquired for three flightlines were analysed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired a month later over the same three flightlines to investigate the effect of time on statistical separability of agricultural cover types. In the subsets of one to six spectral channels, the combination of wavelength regions (where V, N, M and T denote the visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared wavelength regions, respectively): V, V M, V N M, V N M T, V V N M T, V V N M M T, respectively, were found to be the best choices for getting good overall statistical separability of the agricultural cover types for the data acquired.

Kumar, R.↗

THE MASS DEPENDENCE BETWEEN PROTOPLANETARY DISKS AND THEIR STELLAR HOSTS

We present a substantial extension of the millimeter (mm) wave continuum photometry catalog for circumstellar dust disks in the Taurus star-forming region, based on a new ''snapshot'' {lambda} = 1.3 mm survey with the Submillimeter Array. Combining these new data with measurements in the literature, we construct a mm-wave luminosity distribution, f(L{sub mm}), for Class II disks that is statistically complete for stellar hosts with spectral types earlier than M8.5 and has a 3{sigma} depth of roughly 3 mJy. The resulting census eliminates a longstanding selection bias against disks with late-type hosts, and thereby demonstrates that there is a strong correlation between L{sub mm} and the host spectral type. By translating the locations of individual stars in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram into masses and ages, and adopting a simple conversion between L{sub mm} and the disk mass, M{sub d} , we confirm that this correlation corresponds to a statistically robust relationship between the masses of dust disks and the stars that host them. A Bayesian regression technique is used to characterize these relationships in the presence of measurement errors, data censoring, and significant intrinsic scatter: the best-fit results indicate a typical 1.3 mm flux density of {approx}25 mJy for 1 M{sub Sun} hosts and a power-law scaling L{sub mm}{proportional_to}M{sub *}{sup 1.5-2.0}. We suggest that a reasonable treatment of dust temperature in the conversion from L{sub mm} to M{sub d} favors an inherently linear M{sub d} {proportional_to}M{sub *} scaling, with a typical disk-to-star mass ratio of {approx}0.2%-0.6%. The measured rms dispersion around this regression curve is {+-}0.7 dex, suggesting that the combined effects of diverse evolutionary states, dust opacities, and temperatures in these disks imprint a full width at half-maximum range of a factor of {approx}40 on the inferred M{sub d} (or L{sub mm}) at any given host mass. We argue that this relationship between M{sub d} and M{sub *} likely represents the origin of the inferred correlation between giant planet frequency and host star mass in the exoplanet population, and provides some basic support for the core accretion model for planet formation. Moreover, we caution that the effects of incompleteness and selection bias must be considered in comparative studies of disk evolution, and illustrate that fact with statistical comparisons of f(L{sub mm}) between the Taurus catalog presented here and incomplete subsamples in the Ophiuchus, IC 348, and Upper Sco young clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Traction–separation relationships for hydrogen induced grain boundary embrittlement in nickel via molecular dynamics simulations

A statistical approach combined with molecular dynamics simulations is used to study the influence of hydrogen on intergranular decohesion. This methodology is applied to a Ni Σ3(112)[11¯0] symmetric tilt grain boundary. Hydrogenated grain boundaries with different H concentrations are constructed using an energy minimization technique with initial H atom positions guided by Monte Carlo simulation results. Decohesion behavior is assessed through extraction of a traction–separation relationship during steady-state crack propagation in a statistically meaningful approach, building upon prior work employing atomistic cohesive zone volume elements (CZVEs). A sensitivity analysis is performed on the numerical approach used to extract the traction–separation relationships, clarifying the role of CZVE size, threshold parameters necessary to differentiate elastic and decohesion responses, and the numerical averaging technique. Results show that increasing H coverage at the Ni Σ3(112)[11¯0] grain boundary asymmetrically influences the crack tip velocity during propagation, leads to a general decrease in the work of separation required for crack propagation, and provides a reduction in the peak stress in the extracted traction–separation relationship. Furthermore the present framework offers a meaningful vehicle to pass atomistically derived interfacial behavior to higher length scale formulations for intergranular fracture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Dynamic Performance Enhancement for Nonlinear Stochastic Systems Using RBF Driven Nonlinear Compensation with Extended Kalman Filter

In this paper, a novel hybrid control method is proposed to enhance the control performance of the PI based control system for a class of nonlinear and non-Gaussian stochastic dynamic processes with unmeasurable states. Firstly, to enhance the tracking performance of the PI controller where the PI parameters are fixed in many actual control systems, the compensative signal is formed using the extended Kalman filter(EKF) based state estimator and driven by the radial basis function (RBF) neural network based compensator. In addition, the weights of RBF is trained to minimize the entropy criterion of tracking error as the process is subjected to non-Gaussian disturbances. Meanwhile, since the precise statistical property of noises is hard to obtain for many industrial processes, the kernel density estimation (KDE) technique is employed in this paper to estimate the entropy. The convergence of RBF network is discussed and the stability of the resulted closed-loop hybrid control system is analyzed in mean square sense. Finally, a numerical example and a practical system testing are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

stochastic systems, PI Controller, Entropy, Extend↗

On the analysis of signal peaks in pulse-height spectra

The estimation of the signal location and intensity of a peak in a pulse height spectrum is important for X- ray and γ-ray spectroscopy, charged-particle spectrometry, liquid chromatography, and many other subfields. However, both the ‘‘centroid’’ and ‘‘signal intensity’’ of a peak in a pulse-height spectrum are ill-defined quantities and different methods of analysis will yield different numerical results. Here, we apply three methods of analysis. Method A is based on simple count summation and is likely the technique most frequently applied in practice. The analysis is straightforward and fast, and does not involve any statistical modeling. We find that it provides reliable results only for high signal-to-noise data, but has severe limitations in all other cases. Method B employs a Bayesian model to extract signal counts and centroid from the measured total and background counts. The resulting values are derived from the respective posteriors and, therefore, have a rigorous statistical meaning. The method makes no assumptions about the peak shape. It yields reliable and relatively small centroid uncertainties. However, it provides relatively large signal count uncertainties. Method C makes a strong assumption regarding the peak shape by fitting a Gaussian function to the data. Furthermore, the fit is based again on a Bayesian model. Although Method C requires careful consideration of the Gaussian width (usually given by the detector resolution) used in the fitting, it provides reliable values and relatively small uncertainties both for the signal counts and the centroid.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Characterization of methane oxidation in a simulated landfill cover system by comparing molecular and stable isotope mass balances

Highlights: • Quantification of bacterial methane oxidation was investigated by isotope analysis. • Independent approaches (mass balancing, stoichiometry, and stable isotope analysis). • Robust statistical validation of calculated biodegradation in experimental reactor. • Thermal imaging to locate bacterial methane oxidation along with isotope analysis. - Abstract: Biological methane oxidation may be regarded as a method of aftercare treatment for landfills to reduce climate relevant methane emissions. It is of social and economic interest to estimate the behavior of bacterial methane oxidation in aged landfill covers due to an adequate long-term treatment of the gas emissions. Different approaches assessing methane oxidation in laboratory column studies have been investigated by other authors recently. However, this work represents the first study in which three independent approaches, ((i) mass balance, (ii) stable isotope analysis, and (iii) stoichiometric balance of product (CO{sub 2}) and reactant (CH{sub 4}) by CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratio) have been compared for the estimation of the biodegradation by a robust statistical validation on a rectangular, wide soil column. Additionally, an evaluation by thermal imaging as a potential technique for the localization of the active zone of bacterial methane oxidation has been addressed in connection with stable isotope analysis and CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratios. Although landfills can be considered as open systems the results for stable isotope analysis based on a closed system correlated better with the mass balance than calculations based on an open system. CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratios were also in good agreement with mass balance. In general, highest values for biodegradation were determined from mass balance, followed by CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratio, and stable isotope analysis. The investigated topsoil proved to be very suitable as a potential cover layer by removing up to 99% of methane for CH{sub 4} loads of 35–65 g m{sup –2} d{sup –1} that are typical in the aftercare phase of landfills. Finally, data from stable isotope analysis and the CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratios were used to trace microbial activity within the reactor system. It was shown that methane consumption and temperature increase, as a cause of high microbial activity, correlated very well.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Constraining Data Mining with Physical Models: Voltage- and Oxygen Pressure-Dependent Transport in Multiferroic Nanostructures

Development of new generation electronic devices requires understanding and controlling the electronic transport in ferroic, magnetic, and optical materials, which is hampered by two factors. First, the complications of working at the nanoscale, where interfaces, grain boundaries, defects, and so forth, dictate the macroscopic characteristics. Second, the convolution of the response signals stemming from the fact that several physical processes may be activated simultaneously. Here, we present a method of solving these challenges via a combination of atomic force microscopy and data mining analysis techniques. Rational selection of the latter allows application of physical constraints and enables direct interpretation of the statistically significant behaviors in the framework of the chosen physical model, thus distilling physical meaning out of raw data. We demonstrate our approach with an example of deconvolution of complex transport behavior in a bismuth ferrite–cobalt ferrite nanocomposite in ambient and ultrahigh vacuum environments. Measured signal is apportioned into four electronic transport patterns, showing different dependence on partial oxygen and water vapor pressure. These patterns are described in terms of Ohmic conductance and Schottky emission models in the light of surface electrochemistry. Finally and furthermore, deep data analysis allows extraction of local dopant concentrations and barrier heights empowering our understanding of the underlying dynamic mechanisms of resistive switching.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards intelligent diagnostic system employing integration of mathematical and engineering model

The development of medical diagnostic system has been one of the main research fields during years. The goal of the medical diagnostic system is to place a nosological system that could ease the diagnostic evaluation normally performed by scientists and doctors. Efficient diagnostic evaluation is essentials and requires broad knowledge in order to improve conventional diagnostic system. Several approaches on developing the medical diagnostic system have been designed and tested since the earliest 60s. Attempts on improving their performance have been made which utilizes the fields of artificial intelligence, statistical analyses, mathematical model and engineering theories. With the availability of the microcomputer and software development as well as the promising aforementioned fields, medical diagnostic prototypes could be developed. In general, the medical diagnostic system consists of several stages, namely the 1) data acquisition, 2) feature extraction, 3) feature selection, and 4) classifications stages. Data acquisition stage plays an important role in converting the inputs measured from the real world physical conditions to the digital numeric values that can be manipulated by the computer system. One of the common medical inputs could be medical microscopic images, radiographic images, magnetic resonance image (MRI) as well as medical signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG). Normally, the scientist or doctors have to deal with myriad of data and redundant to be processed. In order to reduce the complexity of the diagnosis process, only the significant features of the raw data such as peak value of the ECG signal or size of lesion in the mammogram images will be extracted and considered in the subsequent stages. Mathematical models and statistical analyses will be performed to select the most significant features to be classified. The statistical analyses such as principal component analysis and discriminant analysis as well as mathematical model of clustering technique have been widely used in developing the medical diagnostic systems. The selected features will be classified using mathematical models that embedded engineering theory such as artificial intelligence, support vector machine, neural network and fuzzy-neuro system. These classifiers will provide the diagnostic results without human intervention. Among many publishable researches, several prototypes have been developed namely NeuralPap, Neural Mammo, and Cervix Kit. The former system (NeuralPap) is an automatic intelligent diagnostic system for classifying and distinguishing between the normal and cervical cancerous cells. Meanwhile, the Cervix Kit is a portable Field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based cervical diagnostic kit that could automatically diagnose the cancerous cell based on the images obtained during sampling test. Besides the cervical diagnostic system, the Neural Mammo system is developed to specifically aid the diagnosis of breast cancer using a fine needle aspiration image.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

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