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Interpreting radial correlation Doppler reflectometry using gyrokinetic simulations

A linear response, local model for the DBS amplitude applied to gyrokinetic simulations shows that radial correlation Doppler reflectometry measurements (RCDR, Schirmer et al 2007 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 49 1019) are not sensitive to the average turbulence radial correlation length, but to a correlation length that depends on the binormal wavenumber $k_{\perp}$ selected by the Doppler backscattering (DBS) signal. Nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations show that the turbulence naturally exhibits a nonseparable power law spectrum in wavenumber space, leading to a power law dependence of the radial correlation length with binormal wavenumber $l_r \sim C k_{\perp}^{-\alpha} (\alpha \approx 1)$ which agrees with the inverse proportionality relationship between the measured $l_r$ and $k_{\perp} $ observed in experiments (Fernández-Marina et al 2014 Nucl. Fusion 54 072001). This new insight indicates that RCDR characterizes the eddy aspect ratio in the perpendicular plane to the magnetic field. It also motivates future use of a nonseparable turbulent spectrum to quantitatively interpret RCDR and potentially other turbulence diagnostics. The radial correlation length is only measurable when the radial resolution at the cutoff location $W_\text n$ satisfies $W_\text n \ll l_r$, while the measurement becomes dominated by $W_\text n$ for $W_\text n \gg l_r$. This suggests that $l_r$ is likely to be inaccessible for electron-scale DBS measurements (${k_{\perp}}{\rho_{\text s}} \gt 1$). The effect of $W_\text n$ on ion-scale radial correlation lengths could be nonnegligible.

radial correlation Doppler reflectometry↗

The Influence of Environment on Post-Detonation Chemistry and Debris Formation (Abbreviated Final Report: 20-SI-006)

Predicting, responding to, or interpreting the chemical record preserved in debris derived from nuclear events can be challenging due to chemical fractionation. Chemical fractionation is where different species of the evolving radionuclide inventory segregate and/or are lost from the system over the timescales of debris formation. Both historic data and recent research suggest that the interaction and character of the local environment may exert controls on chemical fractionation by influencing the cooling and evolution of the associated fireball as well as the composition of the vapor term and resultant speciation. Prior to this work, an integrated platform permitting dynamic and concurrent consideration of physical and chemical evolution of early time post-detonation event environments did not exist. Our work merged historic data and experimental approaches to support development of a computational framework able to simulate fundamental processes (e.g., entrainment of local environment, oxidation chemistry, and cooling time scales) that may perturb the radionuclide inventory captured in post-detonation debris. Work with historic debris confirmed that entrained environmental material affect debris composition, structure, and radionuclide incorporation. Complementary work utilizing a readily controllable and tunable benchtop setup (a plasma flow reactor) simulated the late cooling of a nuclear fireball (e.g., T < 6000 K) and bounded the sensitivity of actinide speciation and particle size distribution to variations in oxygen concentration and cooling rates. Concurrent laser ablation and laser heating experiments were used to investigate the chemistry and physics of processes occurring in vaporized and/or rapidly heated actinides and other elements in the presence of oxygen. A more computationally efficient microphysical model was developed for predicting and evolving size distributions of particles forming from mixed vapor terms and simulating particle formation processes under a variety of extreme conditions. Continued study of historic nuclear event film confirmed that shockwave data and physics codes agree to within the uncertainty of the data. Good agreement was achieved for thermal emission from an airburst, however the paucity of low-temperature molecular opacity data for mixtures of air, bomb debris, entrained dirt, and water vapor complicate agreement for more elaborate scenarios. A multiphysics code (ALE3D) was modified to bring the necessary physics and chemistry, including these new data and insights, onto a single platform. Code development included improved initialization of large physical systems, modernization of chemistry capabilities, and modifications to enable inclusion of particle transport.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Transition-Sensitized Turbulence Models for Compressible and Incompressible Flows

During the grant period from January 1,2002 to December 31,2002 work was carried out on three projects to extend the range of applicability of advanced turbulence models. First, a new transition-sensitized turbulence model was tested and refined. Second, the influence of compressibility on the pressure-strain rate correlation was studied. Third, the relationship between time-filtered large eddy simulation (TLES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) modeling was investigated leading to submission of the article. The transition-sensitized turbulence model encompasses the early-stage transition and turbulent flow regimes describing the evolution of the ensemble mean disturbance energy and dissipation rate. It is founded on a consistent mathematical description of the laminar regime with its linear disturbances and the fully turbulent regime with its stochastic fluctuations. The unified description is provided by the ensemble viewpoint.

Thacker, William D.↗

Integrating Experiments and Simulations to Reveal Anisotropic Growth Mechanisms and Interfaces of a One-Dimensional Zeolite

Zeolites are nanoporous crystalline materials critical for diverse industrial applications, yet their growth mechanisms are poorly understood. Here, this study presents a novel integrated framework combining experimental synthesis, high-resolution imaging, coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations, and computer vision to uncover the mechanisms of growth of SSZ-24, a 1D channel zeolite. We demonstrate how synthesis conditions, such as temperature and reactant concentration, govern crystal anisotropy and surface roughness with growth dynamics differing markedly by crystallographic orientation. Along the channels, growth involves minimal energy barriers and rapid nucleation, resulting in rough surfaces. In contrast, growth perpendicular to the channels requires cooperative molecular organization and is highly sensitive to thermodynamic and kinetic conditions, yielding smooth anisotropic surfaces under low driving forces. By simulating transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images, we bridge molecular-scale simulations with experimental observations, identifying distinct growth mechanisms along different crystal planes. This work offers molecular-level insights into zeolite crystallization, advancing the rational design of nanoporous materials. The integration of cross-disciplinary methodologies establishes a transformative framework for optimizing zeolite synthesis, with implications for broader classes of materials.

Bertolazzo, Andressa A. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake ↗

Efficiency and Output Power Sensitivity to Control Parameter Variations in an LCC-Series Wireless Power Transfer System

In wireless power transfer (WPT) systems, output power (Pout) can be controlled through input parameters such as, input voltage (Vin) , duty cycle (d) , and switching frequency (fsw) . The impact of these control parameters on the overall system efficiency has not been explored in previous studies. This paper focuses on the efficiency (η) and Pout sensitivity to these control parameter variations in an LCC-Series tuned WPT system. There are multiple combinations of Vin, d , and fsw that can achieve a specified target Pout . However, it is important to determine the optimal combination of these control variables that will yield the maximum η for a target Pout . A MATLAB/Simulink model is built to calculate and measure η and Pout . In order to achieve this result, several simulations are run where Vin,d , and fsw are swept across a wide range to cover all possible combinations. MATLAB's Sensitivity Analysis toolbox is used to evaluate how the parameters influence the model's output. Finally, an experimental prototype is implemented. The optimal values acquired using the sensitivity analysis is then plugged into the hardware prototype and compared with the simulation. The results obtained confirm the validity of the proposed method.

Harave, Sudarshan↗

Improving GCM Representation of Convective Cloud Microphysics by Using ARM Raman Lidar and Cloud Radar Observations

The overall objective of this Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric System Research (ASR) funded project is to improve the representation of convective cloud microphysics in global climate models (GCMs) and check it by comparing the model simulations with observations. We have derived the cloud ice water content by synthesizing ARM Raman lidar (RL) and cloud radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. Noting that the simulated anvil clouds in terms of their macro- and micro-physical properties are sensitive to the parameterization of convective microphysical processes, observed ice water content in anvil clouds provides a useful constraint on these parameterizations. We have improved the convective microphysics parameterization scheme by (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. We have examined the impact of improved convective cloud microphysics parameterization on the simulated global climate from GCM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Discovery of Linear Molecular Probes with Optimal Selective Affinity for PFAS in Water

Approaches to tackle the wide and growing variety of highly persistent per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are of pressing global need because of their detrimental human health effects, such as cancer, birth defects, and hormone imbalance. Sensitive, selective, and easy-to-use real-time sensors to monitor and detect PFAS and sorbents to extract them are critical to meeting government-mandated environmental concentrations. In this work, we combine all-atom molecular dynamics simulations, enhanced sampling, deep representational learning, and Bayesian optimization to perform high-throughput virtual screening for highly sensitive and selective molecular probes. Our molecular design space consists of 3850 linear hydrocarbon chains with varying degrees of halogenation with and without amine- and phosphine-based headgroups. By employing a data-driven search process, we efficiently explore the molecular design space to optimize the sensitivity to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) as a prototypical PFAS analyte and selectivity relative to a sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) interferent. We calculate 504 Gibbs free energies of probe-analyte and probe-interferent interactions and identify probes with PFOS association free energies of up to (-ΔG PFOS ) = 9.8 ± 0.2 kJ/mol and selectivities relative to SDS of (-ΔΔG PFOS–SDS ) = 3.1 ± 1.5 kJ/mol. A C 11 Br 23 P(CH 3 ) 2 probe containing 11 backbone brominated carbons and a tertiary phosphine headgroup possesses the most sensitive binding constant to PFOS within the defined search space of K b PFOS = 177.4 ± 12.7, and a semibrominated probe C 5 H 11 C 7 Br 14 N(CH 3 ) 2 containing 12 backbone carbons and a tertiary amine headgroup possesses the highest selectivity relative to SDS of K b PFOS /K b SDS = 4.6 ± 1.7. A retrospective analysis of our data to extract interpretable design rules reveals that the sensitivity of linear hydrogenated probes increases by approximately 1 kJ/mol per C–C bond. The addition or removal of halogen atoms and amine or phosphine headgroups produces nonmonotonic changes in both sensitivity and selectivity with changes to the sensitivity of up to 2.5 kJ/mol. Finally, this work places empirical limitations on the performance of a wide range of linear probes for PFOS detection and offers a generic strategy for high-throughput computational screening to promote selective and sensitive binding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dataset for manuscript "Equipartition and the temperature of maximum density of TIP4P/2005 water"

We simulate TIP4P/2005 water in the temperature range of 257 K to 318 K with time-steps 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 fs. The density-temperature behavior obtained using 0.25 or 0.50 fs are in excellent agreement with each other but differ from those obtained using time-steps that have been shown earlier to lead to a breakdown of equipartition. The temperature of maximum density (TMD) is 277.15 K with time-step 0.25 or 0.50 fs, but is shifted to progressively lower values for longer time-steps, a trend that holds for different thermostat/barostat combinations. Enhancing the water-water dispersion interaction, as has been recommended for simulating disordered proteins in TIP4P/2005, degrades the description of the liquid-vapor phase envelope. We present a simple physically transparent reasoning to highlight the separation of the time-scales between translational and rotational motion. We also develop a metric, Chi, that we term the equipartition anomaly, to detect equipartition violations in simulations that include molecules that are treated as rigid objects. Calculating Chi is shown to be straightforward and sensitive to equipartition violations. A key takeaway from this study is that using sufficiently short time-steps (less than or equal to 0.5 fs) to preserve equipartition is essential for obtaining meaningful liquid water properties and for producing reliable simulation data, as correct-ensemble sampling is fundamental to ensure reproducibility across codes and simulation alogrithms. The included dataset provides the raw data used in the preparation of the graphs noted in the manuscript.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Atmospheric Energy Spectra in Global Kilometre-Scale Models

Eleven 40-day long integrations of five different global models with horizontal resolutions of less than 9 km are compared in terms of their global energy spectra. The method of normal-mode function decomposition is used to distinguish between balanced (Rossby wave; RW) and unbalanced (inertia-gravity wave; IGW) circulation. The simulations produce the expected canonical shape of the spectra, but their spectral slopes at mesoscales, and the zonal scale at which RW and IGW spectra intersect differ significantly. The partitioning of total wave energies into RWs an IGWs is most sensitive to the turbulence closure scheme and this partitioning is what determines the spectral crossing scale in the simulations, which differs by a factor of up to two. It implies that care must be taken when using simple spatial filtering to compare gravity wave phenomena in storm-resolving simulations, even when the model horizontal resolutions are similar. In contrast to the energy partitioning between the RWs and IGWs, changes in turbulence closure schemes do not seem to strongly affect spectral slopes, which only exhibit major differences at mesoscales. Despite their minor contribution to the global (horizontal kinetic plus potential available) energy, small scales are important for driving the global mean circulation. Our results support the conclusions of previous studies that the strength of convection is a relevant factor for explaining discrepancies in the energies at small scales. The models studied here produce the major large-scale features of tropical precipitation patterns. However, particularly at large horizontal wavenumbers, the spectra of upper tropospheric vertical velocity, which is a good indicator for the strength of deep convection, differ by factors of three or more in energy. High vertical kinetic energies at small scales are mostly found in those models that do not use any convective parameterisation.

DYAMOND↗

Measurement of Insulation Compaction in the Cryogenic Fuel Tanks at Kennedy Space Center by Fast/Thermal Neutron Techniques

The liquid hydrogen and oxygen cryogenic storage tanks at John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) use expanded perlite as thermal insulation. Th ere is evidence that some of the perlite has compacted over time, com promising the thermal performance and possibly also structural integr ity of the tanks. Therefore an Non-destructive Testing (NDT) method for measuring the perlite density or void fraction is urgently needed. Methods based on neutrons are good candidates because they can readil y penetrate through the 1.75 cm outer steel shell and through the ent ire 120 cm thickness of the perlite zone. Neutrons interact with the nuclei of materials to produce characteristic gamma rays which are the n detected. The gamma ray signal strength is proportional to the atom ic number density. Consequently, if the perlite is compacted then the count rates in the individual peaks in the gamma ray spectrum will i ncrease. Perlite is a feldspathic volcanic rock made up of the major elements Si, AI, Na, K and 0 along with some water. With commercially available portable neutron generators it is possible to produce simul taneously fluxes of neutrons in two energy ranges: fast (14 MeV) and thermal (25 meV). Fast neutrons produce gamma rays by inelastic scatt ering which is sensitive to Fe and O. Thermal neutrons produce gamma rays by radiative capture in prompt gamma neutron activation (PGNA) and this is sensitive to Si, AI, Na, Kand H. Thus the two energy ranges produce complementary information. The R&D program has three phases: numerical simulations of neutron and gamma ray transport with MCNP s oftware, evaluation of the system in the laboratory on test articles and finally mapping of the perlite density in the cryogenic tanks at KSC. The preliminary MCNP calculations have shown that the fast/therma l neutron NDT method is capable of distinguishing between expanded an d compacted perlite with excellent statistics.

Livingston, R. A.↗

Constraints on Cumulus Parameterization from Simulations of Observed MJO Events

Two recent activities offer an opportunity to test general circulation model (GCM) convection and its interaction with large-scale dynamics for observed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to entrainment, rain evaporation, downdrafts, and cold pools. Single Column Model versions that restrict weakly entraining convection produce the most realistic dependence of convection depth on column water vapor (CWV) during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment at Gan Island. Differences among models are primarily at intermediate CWV where the transition from shallow to deeper convection occurs. GCM 20-day hindcasts during the Year of Tropical Convection that best capture the shallow–deep transition also produce strong MJOs, with significant predictability compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. The dry anomaly east of the disturbance on hindcast day 1 is a good predictor of MJO onset and evolution. Initial CWV there is near the shallow–deep transition point, implicating premature onset of deep convection as a predictor of a poor MJO simulation. Convection weakly moistens the dry region in good MJO simulations in the first week; weakening of large-scale subsidence over this time may also affect MJO onset. Longwave radiation anomalies are weakest in the worst model version, consistent with previous analyses of cloud/moisture greenhouse enhancement as the primary MJO energy source. The authors’ results suggest that both cloud-/moisture-radiative interactions and convection–moisture sensitivity are required to produce a successful MJO simulation.

Madden-Julian Oscillation↗

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Wind tunnel test results of heavy rain effects on airfoil performance

The effects of simulated heavy rain on the aerodynamic characteristics of a NACA 64-210 airfoil section equipped with high-lift devices were investigated in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The experiment was part of an on-going NASA program to determine the effect of heavy rain on airplane performance, and was directed at providing insight into scaling laws for subscale model testing of rain effects. The model used in the investigation had a chord of 2.5 feet, a span of 8.0 feet, and was mounted on the tunnel centerline between two large endplates. A water spray distribution system was located 10 chord lengths upstream of the model. The sensitivity of test results to partial-span coverage of the model in the simulated rain environment as compared to full-span coverage was also investigated. The lift and drag data obtained for the high-lift configuration show excellent repeatability of results compared to the previous data. Results obtained for various spray concentrations and tunnel speeds showed significant losses in maximum lift capability, a decrease in the angle of attack for maximum lift, and an increase in drag as the stimulated rain rate was increased. The test results also indicated that the data were not strongly affected by surface tension effects for the high-lift configuration.

Bezos, G. M.↗

Exploring Li-Air Batteries for High Specific Energy and High Power Applications: A Simulation Study

Commercialization of lithium-air batteries face many challenges, such as electrolyte decomposition, short cycle life, low energy efficiency, low power density, etc. However, commercialization of Li-air batteries for mass sensitive applications such as electric vehicles, portable power source, and drones is more challenging due to additional constraints of safety, electrolyte evaporation, high specific energy requirements, and reliable discharge times. In this presentation, we will present our finite element simulation results comparing Li-O2 and Li-air batteries using power density, energy density, specific power, and discharge times as metrics to evaluate different electrolytes and electrode geometry to reduce total mass and maximize discharge current. We use a finite element model and a discharge product model developed in which is based on porous electrode and concentrated electrolyte theories and the discharge product is modeled using quantum tunneling; for reaction kinetics and oxygen diffusion, an improved model was used. The electrolyte properties such as ion conductivity and ion diffusion were obtained from Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations while the other parameters for the finite element model were calibrated to match experiments at high discharge current densities (>1.5 mA/cm2). The mass densities of different electrolytes were computed using MD simulations as well. For this presentation, we examine the practical electrochemical mass of a system at different current ratings, the sensitivity of mass to the use of ambient air as compared to pure oxygen as well as the electrolyte, which affects maximum current density and the total mass associated with the electrolyte (which includes the mass of additional components), and, the optimization of battery geometry for total discharge time, average discharge voltage, maximum discharge current, and minimum electrochemical mass.

Mehta, M.↗

A Study of Imaging Interferometer Simulators

Several new space science mission concepts under development at NASA-GSFC for astronomy are intended to carry out synthetic imaging using Michelson interferometers or direct (Fizeau) imaging with sparse apertures. Examples of these mission concepts include the Stellar Imager (SI), the Space Infrared Interferometric Telescope (SPIRIT), the Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure (SPECS), and the Fourier-Kelvin Stellar Interferometer (FKSI). We have been developing computer-based simulators for these missions. These simulators are aimed at providing a quantitative evaluation of the imaging capabilities of the mission by modelling the performance on different realistic targets in terms of sensitivity, angular resolution, and dynamic range. Both Fizeau and Michelson modes of operation can be considered. Our work is based on adapting a computer simulator called imSIM, which was initially written for the Space Interferometer Mission in order to simulate the imaging mode of new missions such as those listed. In a recent GSFC-funded study we have successfully written a preliminary version of a simulator SISIM for the Stellar Imager and carried out some preliminary studies with it. In a separately funded study we have also been applying these methods to SPECS/SPIRIT.

Allen, Ronald J.↗

Study of the Imaging Capabilities of SPIRIT/SPECS Concept Interferometers

Several new space science mission concepts under development at NASA-GSFC for astronomy are intended to carry out synthetic imaging using Michelson interferometers or direct (Fizeau) imaging with sparse apertures. Examples of these mission concepts include the Stellar Imager (SI), the Space Infrared Interferometric Telescope (SPIRIT), the Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure (SPECS), and the Fourier-Kelvin Stellar Interferometer (FKSI). We have been developing computer-based simulators for these missions. These simulators are aimed at providing a quantitative evaluation of the imaging capabilities of the mission by modeling the performance on different realistic targets in terms of sensitivity, angular resolution, and dynamic range. Both Fizeau and Michelson modes of operation can be considered. Our work is based on adapting a computer simulator called imSIM which was initially written for the Space Interferometer Mission in order to simulate the imaging mode of new missions such as those listed. This report covers the activities we have undertaken to provide a preliminary version of a simulator for the SPIRIT mission concept.

Allen, Ronald J.↗

Thermocapillary motion of deformable drops

The thermocapillary motion of initially spherical drops/bubbles driven by a constant temperature gradient in an unbounded liquid medium is simulated numerically. Effects of convection of momentum and energy, as well as shape deformations, are addressed. The method used is based on interface tracking on a base cartesian grid, and uses a smeared color or indicator function for the determination of the surface topology. Quad-tree adaptive refinement of the cartesian grid is implemented to enhance the fidelity of the surface tracking. It is shown that convection of energy results in a slowing of the drop, as the isotherms get wrapped around the front of the drop. Shape deformation resulting from inertial effects affect the migration velocity. The physical results obtained are in agreement with the existing literature. Furthermore, remarks are made on the sensitivity of the calculated solutions to the smearing of the fluid properties. Analysis and simulations show that the migration velocity depends very strongly on the smearing of the interfacial force whereas it is rather insensitive to the smearing of other properties, hence the adaptive grid.

Haj-Hariri, Hossein↗

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

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