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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗
NASA NTRS1991

Mass and power modeling of communication satellites

Analytic estimating relationships for the mass and power requirements for major satellite subsystems are described. The model for each subsystem is keyed to the performance drivers and system requirements that influence their selection and use. Guidelines are also given for choosing among alternative technologies which accounts for other significant variables such as cost, risk, schedule, operations, heritage, and life requirements. These models are intended for application to first order systems analyses, where resources do not warrant detailed development of a communications system scenario. Given this ground rule, the models are simplified to 'smoothed' representation of reality. Therefore, the user is cautioned that cost, schedule, and risk may be significantly impacted where interpolations are sufficiently different from existing hardware as to warrant development of new devices.

Price, Kent M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Contributions of Material Properties and Structure to Increased Bone Fragility for a Given Bone Mass in the UCD-T2DM Rat Model of Type 2 Diabetes

Adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have a higher fracture risk for a given bone quantity, but the mechanisms remain unclear. Using a rat model of polygenic obese T2D, we demonstrate that diabetes significantly reduces whole-bone strength for a given bone mass (μCT-derived BMC), and we quantify the roles of T2D-induced deficits in material properties versus bone structure; ie, geometry and microarchitecture. Lumbar vertebrae and ulnae were harvested from 6-month-old lean Sprague-Dawley rats, obese Sprague-Dawley rats, and diabetic obese UCD-T2DM rats (diabetic for 69 ± 7 days; blood glucose >200 mg/dL). Both obese rats and those with diabetes had reduced whole-bone strength for a given BMC. In obese rats, this was attributable to structural deficits, whereas in UCD-T2DM rats, this was attributable to structural deficits and to deficits in tissue material properties. For the vertebra, deficits in bone structure included thinner and more rod-like trabeculae; for the ulnae, these deficits included inefficient distribution of bone mass to resist bending. Deficits in ulnar material properties in UCD-T2DM rats were associated with increased non-enzymatic crosslinking and impaired collagen fibril deformation. Specifically, small-angle X-ray scattering revealed that diabetes reduced collagen fibril ultimate strain by 40%, and those changes coincided with significant reductions in the elastic, yield, and ultimate tensile properties of the bone tissue. Importantly, the biomechanical effects of these material property deficits were substantial. Prescribing diabetes-specific tissue yield strains in high-resolution finite element models reduced whole-bone strength by a similar amount (and in some cases a 3.4-fold greater amount) as the structural deficits. These findings provide insight into factors that increase bone fragility for a given bone mass in T2D; not only does diabetes associate with less biomechanically efficient bone structure, but diabetes also reduces tissue ductility by limiting collagen fibril deformation, and in doing so, reduces the maximum load capacity of the bone.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Level-3 Probabilistic Safety Analysis VAB-3 as an NPP Safety Enhancement Stage

Questions pertaining to the development of reactors from the standpoint of the evolution of protection and emergency response systems for large radiation accidents, and development of probabilistic safety analysis at different levels are examined. Examples are presented of the calculation of quantitative characteristics of risk in an accident at a model NPP that show the possibility of using VAB-3 to evaluate the scale of countermeasures as a function of the level of intervention, their effectiveness as a function of the time of application and validation of countermeasures for an individual populated point. It is shown that the VAB-3 methodology must be developed in order to increase NPP safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Application of Unbiased Estimators to Group Classification Risk Estimation

We consider the problem of construction of point and interval estimators for the Bayesian risk of a group classification decision rule provided that the elements of training samples have distributions belonging to the same one-parameter exponential family. We propose a solution to this problem using the asymptotic normality and efficiency of an unbiased risk estimator. An example of application of the obtained theoretical results is given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of analytical studies on seismic fluid-structure interaction of base-supported cylindrical tanks

Analytical solutions for seismic fluid-structure interaction (FSI) of tanks are used by analysts and engineers for a number of purposes, including preliminary sizing, risk assessment, and verification of numerical models. Analytical solutions for seismic FSI of tanks were first developed in the 1930s and have been extended and/or modified in the following nine decades to accommodate different seismic inputs and boundary conditions. This report reviews published analytical solutions for rigid and flexible, base-supported, cylindrical tanks subjected to unidirectional horizontal motion of a small amplitude. The studies parsed the fluid-structure (FSI) response into an impulsive and a convective component, and addressed frequencies of lateral motions of the tank (i.e., impulsive frequencies), hydrodynamic pressures, frequencies of waves (i.e., convective frequencies), wave heights, and reactions at the base. The solutions were categorized into exact and approximate solutions based on the methodologies used. Herein, FSI responses are calculated and compared for a range of tank dimensions using the analytical solutions from the different studies. The responses presented here are normalized to be unitless, and can be used for tanks with different dimensions and mechanical properties, and subjected to different input motions. A sample steel water tank is analyzed using the normalized solutions for two earthquake ground motions with different frequency contents. Ignoring tank flexibility may significantly underestimate seismic responses of the tank and its contained fluid. The approximate solutions, which have been widely used for decades, may not be sufficiently accurate in the modern era. Calculation errors in the reviewed studies are identified and corrected, and differences are quantified for the sample tank.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prognostic Factors and Patterns of Locoregional Failure After Surgical Resection in Patients With Cholangiocarcinoma Without Adjuvant Radiation Therapy: Optimal Field Design for Adjuvant Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To identify prognostic factors and patterns of local failure in patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), after surgical resection in the absence of adjuvant radiation, for optimal definition of target volumes encompassing the majority of local recurrences. Methods and Materials: A chart review was performed in patients who underwent resection for primary CCA (intrahepatic, hilar, and distal) between 1999 and 2014. Local failure was defined as recurrence in a theoretical reasonable postoperative radiation volume. This includes the cut surface of liver, biliary anastomosis, hilum, portal nodes, celiac nodes, peri-pancreatic nodes, gastro-hepatic nodes, and retroperitoneal nodes. Patients who received adjuvant radiation were excluded. Results: A total of 189 patients underwent surgical resection for CCA, of whom 145 patients had sufficient follow-up. Median follow-up was 41.6 months (95% confidence interval 35.4-48.7 months). Of the 145 cases, 102 were intrahepatic and 43 were hilar/distal CCA. Adjuvant chemotherapy was given in 38 cases (26%), of which 20 (54%) were gemcitabine-based. Eighty-six patients (59%) had a documented recurrence, of whom 44 (51%) had a locoregional component. Among patients who had a recurrence, 23 (27%) had a recurrence at the biliary anastomosis and/or cut liver surface. Twenty-eight patients (32.6%) had a recurrence in the regional lymph nodes, most prevalent in the portal (16.3%) and retroperitoneal (17.4%) lymph nodes. Univariable analysis identified tumor size, any vascular invasion, presence of satellites, stage/nodal status, and receipt of chemotherapy as significant prognostic factors of overall recurrence among intrahepatic patients. Presence of satellites, and stage 3/Nx status remained statistically significant in multivariable modeling. Conclusions: The areas at highest risk for locoregional recurrence after surgical resection for primary CCA are the biliary anastomosis/cut liver surface, portal lymph nodes, and retroperitoneal lymph nodes. Although these results need to be validated, adjuvant radiation should possibly cover these areas to maximize locoregional control.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods

In the past several years, several international organizations have begun to collect data on human performance in nuclear power plant simulators. The data collected provide a valuable opportunity to improve human reliability analysis (HRA), but these improvements will not be realized without implementation of Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods are widely used to incorporate sparse data into models in many parts of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but Bayesian methods have not been adopted by the HRA community. In this paper, we provide a Bayesian methodology to formally use simulator data to refine the human error probabilities (HEPs) assigned by existing HRA methods. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study, wherein we use simulator data from the Halden Reactor Project to update the probability assignments from the SPAR-H method. The case study demonstrates the ability to use performance data, even sparse data, to improve existing HRA methods. Furthermore, this paper also serves as a demonstration of the value of Bayesian methods to improve the technical basis of HRA.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

MyD88 mediates in vivo effector functions of alveolar macrophages in acute lung inflammatory responses to carbon nanotube exposure

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are rapidly emerging as high-priority occupational toxicants. CNT powders contain fibrous particles that aerosolize readily in places of manufacture and handling, posing an inhalation risk for workers. Studies using animal models indicate that lung exposure to CNTs causes prolonged inflammatory responses and diffuse alveolar injury. The mechanisms governing CNT-induced lung inflammation are not fully understood but have been suggested to involve alveolar macrophages (AMs). In the current study, we sought to systematically assess the effector role of AMs in vivo in the induction of lung inflammatory responses to CNT exposures and investigate their cell type-specific mechanisms. Multi-wall CNTs characterized for various physicochemical attributes were used as the CNT type. Using an AM-specific depletion and repopulation approach in a mouse model, we unambiguously demonstrated that AMs are major effector cells necessary for the in vivo elaboration of CNT-induced lung inflammation. We further investigated in vitro AM responses and identified molecular targets which proved critical to pro-inflammatory responses in this model, namely MyD88 as well as MAPKs and Ca{sup 2} {sup +}/CamKII. We further demonstrated that MyD88 inhibition in donor AMs abrogated their capacity to reconstitute CNT-induced inflammation when adoptively transferred into AM-depleted mice. Taken together, this is the first in vivo demonstration that AMs act as critical effector cell types in CNT-induced lung inflammation and that MyD88 is required for this in vivo effector function. AMs and their cell type-specific mechanisms may therefore represent potential targets for future therapeutic intervention of CNT-related lung injury. - Highlights: • Demonstrated in vivo effector role of alveolar macrophages (AMs) in CNT toxicity • MyD88, MAPKs, and Ca{sup 2} {sup +}/CamKII are required for AM inflammatory responses in vitro. • MyD88 signaling is required for in vivo effector function of AMs. • MyD88 may be a potential target for intervention in CNT lung exposures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiobjective Modular Biorefinery Configuration under Uncertainty

With increasing interest in using biomass as a raw material for fuel, the development of biorefineries is an active area of research. However, increasing market competition, uncertainty, and environmental concerns are a few of the challenges that need to be addressed. In this work, mathematical optimization formulations are proposed to address these challenges simultaneously. A multiobjective deterministic optimization framework is proposed to address economic and environmental objectives. A two-stage stochastic optimization framework is proposed to account for uncertainties in material flow and product yields. To model the environmental objective, an environmental risk metric is proposed. Finally, as modularization is gaining popularity in the process industry due to its ability to save capital cost because of standardization and reduce time to market, a formulation for simultaneously achieving modular process design and biorefinery configuration is proposed. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Meconium microbiome associates with the development of neonatal jaundice

Objective: Neonatal jaundice is a common disease that affects up to 60% of newborns. Gut microbiota mediated the excretion of bilirubin from the human body. However, the relationship between early gut microbiome and development of neonatal jaundice is not fully understood. Here we sought to characterize meconium microbiome of newborns and to clarify its association with risk of neonatal jaundice. Methods: We conducted a nested case–control study with 301 newborns providing meconium samples from 2014 to 2015. The main outcome was the development of neonatal jaundice at 42 day follow-up. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was performed to profile the meconium microbiome. LEfSe was employed to identify different features between control and case groups. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk effect of early gut microbiome on neonatal jaundice. Results: Logistic regression models suggested that higher α-diversity was significantly associated with lower risk of jaundice in cesarean infants (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52–0.98), but not in infants born naturally. Higher relative abundance of Bifidobacterium pseudolongum in newborn meconium was significantly associated with lower risk of jaundice both in cesarean-born infants and in the total subjects (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.07–0.68; OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31–0.95, respectively). Spearman’s correlations showed that relative abundance of B. pseudolongum was significantly correlated with α-diversity (P < 0.01). Conclusion: Preventive and treatment methods implying early gut microbiome intervention could be promising for the management of neonatal jaundice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling and Cost Benefit Analysis to Guide Deployment of POC Diagnostics for Non-typhoidal Salmonella Infections with Antimicrobial Resistance

Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) is among the leading causes of blood stream infections in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions, especially among pediatric populations. Invasive NTS can be difficult to treat and have high case-fatality rates, in part due to emergence of strains resistant to broad-spectrum antibiotics. Furthermore, improper treatment contributes to increased antibiotic resistance and death. Point of care (POC) diagnostic tests that rapidly identify invasive NTS infection, and differentiate between resistant and non-resistant strains, may greatly improve patient outcomes and decrease resistance at the community level. Here we present for the first time a model for NTS dynamics in high risk populations that can analyze the potential advantages and disadvantages of four strategies involving POC diagnostic deployment, and the resulting impact on antimicrobial treatment for patients. Our analysis strongly supports the use of POC diagnostics coupled with targeted antibiotic use for patients upon arrival in the clinic for optimal patient and public health outcomes. We show that even the use of imperfect POC diagnostics can significantly reduce total costs and number of deaths, provided that the diagnostic gives results quickly enough that patients are likely to return or stay to receive targeted treatment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Zika plasma viral dynamics in nonhuman primates provides insights into early infection and antiviral strategies

Significance In light of the recent outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV), an understanding of the within-host viral dynamics is essential to assess persistence in vivo, transmission risk, and antiviral therapeutics. Using mathematical modeling we find that, in nonhuman primates, the viral dynamics of ZIKV are characterized by a short lifetime of infected cells (<10 h) during which enough viral particles are produced to infect ∼11 other cells. Higher disease burden is associated with changes in natural killer cell subset concentrations and with elevated expression of the cytokine MCP-1, although the mechanisms behind these associations remain unclear. In order for an antiviral treatment to effectively reduce the time to plasma viral clearance therapy should be initiated at the time of infection or given prophylactically.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

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