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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗
NASA NTRS2016

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS2015

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to- model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

histories↗
NASA NTRS2015

Pathways for Energization of Ca in Mercury's Exosphere

We investigate the possible pathways to produce the extreme energy observed in the calcium exosphere of Mercury. Any mechanism must explain the facts that Ca in Mercury's exosphere is extremely hot, that it is seen almost exclusively on the dawnside of the planet, and that its content varies seasonally, not sporadically. Simple diatomic molecules or their clusters are considered, focusing on calcium oxides while acknowledging that Ca sulfides may also be the precursor molecules. We first discuss impact vaporization to justify the assumption that CaO and Ca-oxide clusters are expected from impacts on Mercury. Then we discuss processes by which the atomic Ca is energized to a 70,000 K gas. The processes considered are (1) electron-impact dissociation of CaO molecules, (2) spontaneous dissociation of Ca-bearing molecules following impact vaporization, (3) shock-induced dissociative ionization, (4) photodissociation and (5) sputtering. We conclude that electron-impact dissociation cannot produce the required abundance of Ca, and sputtering cannot reproduce the observed spatial and temporal variation that is measured. Spontaneous dissociation is unlikely to result in the high energy that is seen. Of the two remaining processes, shock induced dissociative ionization produces the required energy and comes close to producing the required abundance, but rates are highly dependent on the incoming velocity distribution of the impactors. Photodissociation probably can produce the required abundance of Ca, but simulations show that photodissociation cannot reproduce the observed spatial distribution.

Sulfides↗
NASA NTRS2016

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Y0 WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 and the Y1 WISE J035000.32-565830.2: the Importance of Non-Equilibrium Chemistry

We present new near-infrared spectra, obtained at Gemini Observatory, for two Y dwarfs: WISE J035000.32−565830.2 (W0350) and WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 (W1738). A FLAMINGOS-2 R = 540 spectrum was obtained for W0350, covering 1.0 < λ micrometer < 1.7, and a cross-dispersed GNIRS R = 2800 spectrum was obtained for W1738, covering 0.993 - 1.087 micrometer, 1.191 - 1.305 micrometer, 1.589 - 1.631 micrometer, and 1.985 - 2.175 micrometer, in four orders. We also present revised Y JH photometry for W1738, using new NIRI Y and J imaging, and a re-analysis of the previously published NIRI H band images. We compare these data, together with previously published data for late-T and Y dwarfs, to cloud-free models of solar metallicity, calculated both in chemical equilibrium and with disequilibrium driven by vertical transport. We find that for the Y dwarfs the non-equilibrium models reproduce the near-infrared data better than the equilibrium models. The remaining discrepancies suggest that fine-tuning the CH4/CO and NH3/N2 balance is needed. Improved trigonometric parallaxes would improve the analysis. Despite the uncertainties and discrepancies, the models reproduce the observed near-infrared spectra well. We find that for the Y0, W1738, T(sub eff) = 425 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25, and for the Y1, W0350, T(sub eff) = 350 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25. W1738 may be metal-rich. Based on evolutionary models, these temperatures and gravities correspond to a mass range for both Y dwarfs of 3 - 9 Jupiter masses, with W0350 being a cooler, slightly older, version of W1738; the age of W0350 is 0.3 - 3 Gyr, and the age of W1738 is 0.15 - 1 Gyr.

two Y dwarfs↗
NASA NTRS2017

Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning From Long-Duration Spaceflight

Long-duration spaceflight results in sensorimotor adaptations, which cause functional deficits during gravitational transitions, such as landing on a planetary surface after long-duration microgravity exposure. Both the vestibular system and the central nervous system are affected by gravitational transitions. These systems are responsible for coordinating head and eye movements via the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) and go through an adaptation period upon exposure to microgravity. Consequently, they must also re-adapt to Earth's gravitational environment upon landing. This re-adaptation causes decrements in gaze control and dynamic visual acuity, with crewmembers reporting oscillopsia and blurred vision caused by retinal slip, or the inability to keep an image focused on their retina. This is thought to drive motion sickness symptoms experienced by most crewmembers following landing. Retinal slip can be estimated by dynamic visual acuity (DVA); visual acuity while in motion. Previously, DVA has been assessed in the laboratory where subjects walked at 6.4 km/hr on a motorized treadmill. Using this method, Peters et al. (2011) found that DVA is worsened in astronauts by an average of 0.75 eye-chart lines one day after landing. However, it is believed that re-adaptation occurs quickly and that DVA might be worse immediately upon re-exposure to a gravitational environment. Since many crewmembers are unable to walk safely upon landing, it was necessary to develop a method for replicating the vertical head movements associated with walking. In addition, the use of a chair to imitate the head displacement caused by walking isolates eye-head interactions without allowing for trunk and lower-body compensation, as seen with treadmill walking (Mulavara & Bloomberg 2003). Therefore, a modality for assessing DVA in the field within a few hours of landing was developed. In this study, we validated the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to reproduce the oscillatory frequency of walking on a treadmill. Healthy non-astronaut subjects (n=14) participated in one test session and completed three static (seated) and three dynamic (walking/oscillated) visual acuity tests. DVA was assessed using a motorized treadmill, an automated oscillating chair, and a manually operated chair, both developed in the Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC. The automated chair was motor-driven and set to oscillate vertically at 2 Hz with a vertical displacement of +/- 5 cm to simulate vertical translation while walking. The manually operated chair was oscillated vertically by a test operator to the beat of a metronome at 120 beats/min (2 Hz) and a vertical displacement of approximately +/- 5 cm. As the subject was oscillated, they were asked to discern the direction gap of Landolt-C optotypes of varying sizes and verbally reported the direction while an operator recorded their response using a gamepad. Subjects were outfitted with accelerometers (sampling rate = 128 Hz) on their head, trunk and lumbar spine. A fast Fourier transform was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. The spread of the frequency distribution for the manual chair was not significantly different from either the treadmill or the automated chair. However, all three conditions had similar non-zero standard error values, suggesting a variance in head movement frequency which may affect DVA. The average oscillation frequency of the manual chair (1.85 Hz) was significantly different (α=0.05) from that of treadmill walking (2.24 Hz), but not significantly different from that of the automated chair (1.85 Hz) and all three conditions had small standard errors (SEM = 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 Hz for manual, treadmill, and automated respectively). This implies that both chairs oscillate at a frequency below that of treadmill walking, but are comparable to each other and reproducible across sessions. Additionally, DVA scores did not vary significantly across conditions. The smaller spread values of the oscillating chairs' frequencies indicated mitigation of variation induced by locomotor strategies, which enables better examination of the issue of VOR adaptation. Furthermore, due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is easier to transport a manual bouncing chair into the field and safer to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. Therefore, the manually oscillating chair has been deemed to meet and exceed the DVA testing capabilities previously obtained by treadmill walking.

Kreutzberg, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Mathematical Functions for Vacuum System Analysis

A new bivariate function has been found that provides solutions of integrals having the form u (sup minus eta) e (sup u) du which arise when developing predictions for the behavior of pressure within a rigid volume under high vacuum conditions in the presence of venting as well as sources characterized by power law transient decay over the range [0,1] for eta and for u greater than or equal to 0. A few properties of the new function are explored in this work. For instance the eta equals 1/2 case reproduces the Dawson function. In addition, a slight variation of the solution technique reproduces the exponential integral for eta equals 1. The technique used to generate these functions leads to an approach for solving a more general class of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, with the potential for identifying other new functions that solve other integrals.

Dawson Function↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Lunar Helium Atmosphere Using Simultaneous Observations from LRO, LADEE, and ARTEMIS

Simultaneous measurements of helium in the exosphere of the Moon are made from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Lyman Alpha Mapping Project (LAMP) and the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) Neutral Mass Spectrometer (NMS) through the entire 5-month span of the LADEE mission. In addition, the ARTEMIS mission monitored the solar wind alpha particle flux to the Moon. Modeling the lunar helium exosphere, we relate the LAMP polar observations to the LADEE equatorial observations. Further, using the ARTEMIS alpha flux in the Monte Carlo model reproduces the temporal variations in helium density. Comparing the LAMP data to the LADEE data shows excellent agreement. Comparing those with the ARTEMIS data reveals that the solar wind alpha flux is the primary driver to variability in the helium exosphere throughout the LADEE mission. Using a decay time for exospheric helium of 5 days, we determine that the solar wind contributes 64 +/- 5% of the helium to the lunar exosphere. The remaining 36 +/- 5% is presumed to come from outgassing of radiogenic helium from the interior of the Moon. Furthermore, the model reproduces the measurements if 63 +/- 6% of the incident alpha particles are converted to thermalized helium atoms through the interaction between the alphas and the lunar surface. However, these values are dependent on both inferred source rates from LAMP and LADEE observations and on the assumed time constant of the exospheric decay rate.

Moon↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Amazonian Diurnal Cycle to Convective Intensity in Reanalyses

Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics-specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

Itterly, Kyle F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Gamma-Ray Emission in Dissipative Pulsar Magnetospheres: from Theory to Fermi Observations

We compute the patterns of gamma-ray emission due to curvature radiation in dissipative pulsar magnetospheres. Our ultimate goal is to construct macrophysical models that are able to reproduce the observed gamma-ray light curve phenomenology recently published in the Second Fermi Pulsar Catalog. We apply specific forms of Ohm's law on the open field lines using a broad range for the macroscopic conductivity values that result in solutions ranging, from near-vacuum to near-force-free. Using these solutions, we generate model gamma-ray light curves by calculating realistic trajectories and Lorentz factors of radiating particles under the influence of both the accelerating electric fields and curvature radiation reaction. We further constrain our models using the observed dependence of the phase lags between the radio and gamma-ray emission on the gamma-ray peak separation. We perform a statistical comparison of our model radio-lag versus peak-separation diagram and the one obtained for the Fermi standard pulsars. We find that for models of uniform conductivity over the entire open magnetic field line region, agreement with observations favors higher values of this parameter. We find, however, significant improvement in fitting the data with models that employ a hybrid form of conductivity, specifically, infinite conductivity interior to the light cylinder and high but finite conductivity on the outside. In these models the gamma-ray emission is produced in regions near the equatorial current sheet but modulated by the local physical properties. These models have radio lags near the observed values and statistically best reproduce the observed light curve phenomenology. Additionally, they also produce GeV photon cut-off energies.

stars↗
NASA NTRS2016

Patterns of Activity in A Global Model of A Solar Active Region

In this work we investigate the global activity patterns predicted from a model active region heated by distributions of nanoflares that have a range of frequencies. What differs is the average frequency of the distributions. The activity patterns are manifested in time lag maps of narrow-band instrument channel pairs. We combine hydrodynamic and forward modeling codes with a magnetic field extrapolation to create a model active region and apply the time lag method to synthetic observations. Our aim is not to reproduce a particular set of observations in detail, but to recover some typical properties and patterns observed in active regions. Our key findings are the following. (1) Cooling dominates the time lag signature and the time lags between the channel pairs are generally consistent with observed values. (2) Shorter coronal loops in the core cool more quickly than longer loops at the periphery. (3) All channel pairs show zero time lag when the line of sight passes through coronal loop footpoints. (4) There is strong evidence that plasma must be re-energized on a timescale comparable to the cooling timescale to reproduce the observed coronal activity, but it is likely that a relatively broad spectrum of heating frequencies are operating across active regions. (5) Due to their highly dynamic nature, we find nanoflare trains produce zero time lags along entire flux tubes in our model active region that are seen between the same channel pairs in observed active regions.

Bradshaw, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Advection of Potential Temperature in the Atmosphere of Irradiated Exoplanets: A Robust Mechanism to Explain Radius Inflation

The anomalously large radii of strongly irradiated exoplanets have remained a major puzzle in astronomy. Based on a two-dimensional steady-state atmospheric circulation model, the validity of which is assessed by comparison to three-dimensional calculations, we reveal a new mechanism, namely the advection of the potential temperature due to mass and longitudinal momentum conservation, a process occurring in the Earth's atmosphere or oceans. In the deep atmosphere, the vanishing heating flux forces the atmospheric structure to converge to a hotter adiabat than the one obtained with 1D calculations, implying a larger radius for the planet. Not only do the calculations reproduce the observed radius of HD 209458b, but also reproduce the observed correlation between radius inflation and irradiation for transiting planets. Vertical advection of potential temperature induced by non-uniform atmospheric heating thus provides a robust mechanism to explain the inflated radii of irradiated hot Jupiters.

tmospheric effects; methods: numerical; planets an↗
NASA NTRS2017

Thermonuclear Bursts with Short Recurrence Times from Neutron Stars Explained by Opacity-Driven Convection

Thermonuclear flashes of hydrogen and helium accreted onto neutron stars produce the frequently observed Type I X-ray bursts. It is the current paradigm that almost all material burns in a burst, after which it takes hours to accumulate fresh fuel for the next burst. In rare cases, however, bursts are observed with recurrence times as short as minutes. We present the first one-dimensional multi-zone simulations that reproduce this phenomenon. Bursts that ignite in a relatively hot neutron star envelope leave a substantial fraction of the fuel unburned at shallow depths. In the wake of the burst, convective mixing events driven by opacity bring this fuel down to the ignition depth on the observed timescale of minutes. There, unburned hydrogen mixes with the metal-rich ashes, igniting to produce a subsequent burst. We find burst pairs and triplets, similar to the observed instances. Our simulations reproduce the observed fraction of bursts with short waiting times of approximately 30%, and demonstrate that short recurrence time bursts are typically less bright and of shorter duration.

nucleosynthesis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Evolving Isoprene Mechanisms on Simulated Formaldehyde: An Inter-comparison Supported by in Situ Observations from SENEX

Isoprene oxidation schemes vary greatly among gas-phase chemical mechanisms, with potentially significant ramifications for air quality modeling and interpretation of satellite observations in biogenic-rich regions. In this study, in situ observations from the 2013 SENEX mission are combined with a constrained O-D photochemical box model to evaluate isoprene chemistry among five commonly used gas-phase chemical mechanisms: CBO5, CB6r2, MCMv3.2, MCMv3.3.1, and a recent version of GEOS-Chem. Mechanisms are evaluated and inter-compared with respect to formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield product of isoprene oxidation. Though underestimated by all considered mechanisms, observed HCHO mixing ratios are best reproduced by MCMv3.3.1 (normalized mean bias = -15%), followed by GEOS-Chem (-17%), MCMv3.2 (-25%), CB6r2 (-32%) and CB05 (-33%). Inter-comparison of HCHO production rates reveals that major restructuring of the isoprene oxidation scheme in the Carbon Bond mechanism increases HCHO production by only approx. 5% in CB6r2 relative to CBO5, while further refinement of the complex isoprene scheme in the Master Chemical Mechanism increases HCHO production by approx. 16% in MCMv3.3.1 relative to MCMv3.2. The GEOS-Chem mechanism provides a good approximation of the explicit isoprene chemistry in MCMv3.3.1 and generally reproduces the magnitude and source distribution of HCHO production rates. We analytically derive improvements to the isoprene scheme in CB6r2 and incorporate these changes into a new mechanism called CB6r2-UMD, which is designed to preserve computational efficiency. The CB6r2-UMD mechanism mimics production of HCHO in MCMv3.3.1 and demonstrates good agreement with observed mixing ratios from SENEX (-14%). Improved simulation of HCHO also impacts modeled ozone: at approx. 0.3 ppb NO, the ozone production rate increases approx. 3% between CB6r2 and CB6r2-UMD, and rises another approx. 4% when HCHO is constrained to match observations.

isoprene↗
NASA NTRS2017

Embracing Open Source for NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

The overarching purpose of NASAs Earth Science program is to develop a scientific understanding of Earth as a system. Scientific knowledge is most robust and actionable when resulting from transparent, traceable, and reproducible methods. Reproducibility includes open access to the data as well as the software used to arrive at results. Additionally, software that is custom-developed for NASA should be open to the greatest degree possible, to enable re-use across Federal agencies, reduce overall costs to the government, remove barriers to innovation, and promote consistency through the use of uniform standards. Finally, Open Source Software (OSS) practices facilitate collaboration between agencies and the private sector. To best meet these ends, NASAs Earth Science Division promotes the full and open sharing of not only all data, metadata, products, information, documentation, models, images, and research results but also the source code used to generate, manipulate and analyze them. This talk focuses on the challenges to open sourcing NASA developed software within ESD and the growing pains associated with establishing policies running the gamut of tracking issues, properly documenting build processes, engaging the open source community, maintaining internal compliance, and accepting contributions from external sources. This talk also covers the adoption of existing open source technologies and standards to enhance our custom solutions and our contributions back to the community. Finally, we will be introducing the most recent OSS contributions from NASA Earth Science program and promoting these projects for wider community review and adoption.

Earth Science↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗
NASA NTRS2018

How Can TOLNet Help to Better Understand Tropospheric Ozone? A Satellite Perspective

Potential sources of a priori ozone (O3) profiles for use in Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite tropospheric O3 retrievals are evaluated with observations from multiple Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) systems in North America. An O3 profile climatology (tropopause-based O3 climatology (TB-Clim), currently proposed for use in the TEMPO O3 retrieval algorithm) derived from ozonesonde observations and O3 profiles from three separate models (operational Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) product, reanalysis product from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2), and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM)) were: 1) evaluated with TOLNet measurements on various temporal scales (seasonally, daily, hourly) and 2) implemented as a priori information in theoretical TEMPO tropospheric O3 retrievals in order to determine how each a priori impacts the accuracy of retrieved tropospheric (0-10 km) and lowermost tropospheric (LMT, 0-2 km) O3 columns. We found that all sources of a priori O3 profiles evaluated in this study generally reproduced the vertical structure of summer-averaged observations. However, larger differences between the a priori profiles and lidar observations were observed when evaluating inter-daily and diurnal variability of tropospheric O3. The TB-Clim O3 profile climatology was unable to replicate observed inter-daily and diurnal variability of O3 while model products, in particular GEOS-Chem simulations, displayed more skill in reproducing these features. Due to the ability of models, primarily the CTM used in this study, on average to capture the inter-daily and diurnal variability of tropospheric and LMT O3 columns, using a priori profiles from CTM simulations resulted in TEMPO retrievals with the best statistical comparison with lidar observations. Furthermore, important from an air quality perspective, when high LMT O3 values were observed, using CTM a priori profiles resulted in TEMPO LMT O3 retrievals with the least bias. The application of time-specific (non-climatological) hourly/daily model predictions as the a priori profile in TEMPO O3 retrievals will be best suited when applying this data to study air quality or event-based processes as the standard retrieval algorithm will still need to use a climatology product. Follow-on studies to this work are currently being conducted to investigate the application of different CTM-predicted O3 climatology products in the standard TEMPO retrieval algorithm. Finally, similar methods to those used in this study can be easily applied by TEMPO data users to recalculate tropospheric O3 profiles provided from the standard retrieval using a different source of a priori.

Satellite↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Kay, C.↗

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