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Prolegomena to the Study of Friction Stir Welding

The literature contains many approaches toward modeling of the friction stir welding (FSW) process with varying treatments of the weld metal properties. It is worthwhile to consider certain fundamental features of the process before attempting to interpret FSW phenomena: Because of the unique character of metal deformation (as opposed to, say, viscous deformation) a velocity "discontinuity" or shear surface occurs in FSW and determines much of the character of the welding mechanism. A shear surface may not always produce a sound bond. Balancing mechanical power input against conduction and convection heat losses yields a relation, a "temperature index", between spindle speed and travel speed to maintain constant weld temperature. But many process features are only weakly dependent upon temperature. Thus, unlike modeling of metal forming processes, it may be that modeling the FSW process independently of the material conditions has some merit.

Nunes, Arthur C., Jr.↗

A model of impulsive acceleration and transport of energetic particles in Mercury's magnetosphere

A qualitative model of substorm processes in the Mercury magnetosphere is presented based on Mariner 10 observations obtained in 1974-1975. The model is predicated on close analogies observed with the terrestrial case. Particular emphasis is given to energetic particle phenomena as observed by Mariner on March 29, 1974. The suggestion is supported that energetic particles up to about 500 keV are produced by strong induced electric fields at 3 to about 6 Mercury radii in the Hermean tail in association with substorm neutral line formation. The bursts of energetic particles produced are, in this model, subsequently confined on closed field lines near Mercury and drift adiabatically on quasi-trapped orbits for many tens of seconds. Such gradient and curvature drift of the particles can explain prominent periodicities of 5-10 s seen in the Mariner for greater than 170-keV electron flux profiles.

Baker, D. N.↗

The Added Value of SMAP Soil Moisture in Crop Yield Forecasting Over Argentina

Argentina is one of the major producers and exporter of soybeans, corn, and wheat to the world market; therefore, the accurate and timely forecasting of those crops yield is crucial to national crop management and global food security. Previous studies have mainly focused on developing forecasting models for a specific crop type and location using a single source of data (e.g., vegetation indices), thus providing little insight into the forecasting models' performance on different crop types and regions. Besides, these models are based on traditional statistical regression algorithms, while more advanced machine learning approaches have not been explored. This study investigated the estimation of crop yields of three major crops (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), over major growing provinces in Argentina. Our models were trained and evaluated on data from 2015 to 2020, where three remote sensing products (Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), SMAP soil moisture, and MODIS evapotranspiration) were used as predictors. Our results indicated that accurate crop yield forecasts using the developed regression models could be made one to two months before harvest. The MLR and SVM model performance varied among different crop types, where soybean and corn exhibited better predictability compare to the wheat. In most cases, the SVM outperformed the multiple linear regression model due to its ability to capture the nonlinear and complex features of the crop-production process. The forecasted model that combines data from multiple sources outperformed single-source satellite data. The highest accuracy was obtained when the three data sources were all considered in the model development. Results also indicated that the inclusion of SMAP soil moisture improved crop yield forecasting in most provinces, and the most significant improvements occurred in the drier region.

Nazmus Shams Sazib↗

Gila Water Resources III - Modeling the Impacts of Post-fire Restoration Methods on Vegetation Recovery in the Gila National Forest

In recent years, wildfires in New Mexico’s Gila National Forest have become increasingly common and more severe. Wildfires can have powerful impacts on hydrology and soil stability, including erosion, flooding, and debris-flows that threaten lives and infrastructure downstream. Vegetation restoration treatments like seeding and mulching can mitigate these effects and facilitate ecosystem recovery. Understanding the effectiveness of various restoration methods is vital to planning a cost-effective and successful post-fire recovery strategy. The immediate response to a fire on US Forest Service land is coordinated by a Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team, a group responsible for mitigating immediate post-fire risks to human life, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. This study created a proof-of-concept methodology for a decision-support tool designed to help BAER teams identify the restoration treatments most likely to succeed in a given burned area. Leveraging random forest regression, Google Earth Engine, and Landsat 7 and 8 Earth observations, this study modeled vegetation recovery after the 2013 Silver Fire for seeded areas, seeded/mulched areas, and untreated areas. Treatment type and initial burn severity were the largest drivers of vegetation recovery across the landscape. Seeded/mulched areas showed higher recovery levels than untreated areas three months post-fire, but by four years post-fire, treated and untreated areas displayed similar recovery levels. To produce a robust predictive tool for the Gila National Forest, the model should be trained on many more fires and incorporate post-fire weather conditions into the process. Such a model will help partners ensure efficient resource use and plan effective post-fire restoration strategies.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Martian Dust Devil Electron Avalanche Process and Associated Electrochemistry

Mars' dynamic atmosphere displays localized dust devils and larger, global dust storms. Based on terrestrial analog studies, electrostatic modeling, and laboratory work these features will contain large electrostatic fields formed via triboelectric processes. In the low-pressure Martian atmosphere, these fields may create an electron avalanche and collisional plasma due to an increase in electron density driven by the internal electrical forces. To test the hypothesis that an electron avalanche is sustained under these conditions, a self-consistent atmospheric process model is created including electron impact ionization sources and electron losses via dust absorption, electron dissociation attachment, and electron/ion recombination. This new model is called the Dust Devil Electron Avalanche Model (DDEAM). This model solves simultaneously nine continuity equations describing the evolution of the primary gaseous chemical species involved in the electrochemistry. DDEAM monitors the evolution of the electrons and primary gas constituents, including electron/water interactions. We especially focus on electron dynamics and follow the electrons as they evolve in the E field driven collisional gas. When sources and losses are self-consistently included in the electron continuity equation, the electron density grows exponentially with increasing electric field, reaching an equilibrium that forms a sustained time-stable collisional plasma. However, the character of this plasma differs depending upon the assumed growth rate saturation process (chemical saturation versus space charge). DDEAM also shows the possibility of the loss of atmospheric methane as a function of electric field due to electron dissociative attachment of the hydrocarbon. The methane destruction rates are presented and can be included in other larger atmospheric models.

Jackson, Telana L.↗

The importance of properties in modeling

Casting and welding of superalloys, stainless steel and titanium alloys are processes which can be improved through modeling of heat flow, fluid flow, residual stress development, and microstructural evolution. These simulations require inputs of thermophysical data, some of which involves the partially or totally liquid state. In particular, these processes involve melting, flow in the liquid, and solidification. Modeling of such processes can lead to an improved understanding of defects such as shrinkage, inclusions, cracks, incomplete filling (or penetration), macrosegregation, improper grain structure, and deviations from dimensional specifications. Effective modeling can shorten process development time and improve quality. An approach to these problems is to develop efficient models; validate through correlations with thermal, distortion, and microstructural data; run parametric studies; extract knowledge based rules; and apply to adaptive closed loop control systems. With the appropriate pre- and post-processing, such analyses can be made 'user friendly'. This would include graphical user interfaces as well as realistic images and color maps. In such form, these models can be used for sensitivity analyses, which are useful in defining appropriate sensors and in the development of control strategies. Such modeling can be done at several levels, e.g., the MARO level, modeling large scale phenomena such as heat and fluid flow or material deformation; the MICRO level, modeling the development of dendrites, grains or precipitates; or at the NANO level, modeling point defects, dislocations, stacking faults, etc. There are many computational issues associated with these simulations, e.g. computational efficiency and accuracy. In addition, there are many materials issues, not the least of which is the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data for complex alloys. This would include latent heat of fusion, temperature dependent heat capacity and thermal conductivity (for liquid and solid), viscosity, surface tension, thermal expansion, mechanical properties, etc. Preliminary data is frequently gathered from the literature; however, this is often not available for modern alloys. If additional data are required, measurements can be used; however, these are costly, time consuming and can be erroneous due to a lack of testing standards or impure materials. Microstructural predictors can be extracted from thermal information, e.g. cooling rate and thermal gradient; the prediction of microstructure is dependent on solidus and liquidus temperature, mushy zone permeability, the solidification curve, volume changes, phase transformations, alloying effects (such as surface tension or viscosity), mold/metal reactions, metal/environment reactions, etc. Defect maps may be needed to predict the onset of shrinkage, hot cracking or 'freckling'. Constants may be needed for stress relaxation, dendrite coarsening, vaporization, etc. Visualization was used as a tool to better comprehend complex data sets associated with the analysis of directional solidification (including crystal growth) and welding. Examples include not only isotherms, but also cooling rate, growth rate and thermal gradient. The latter two are not single valued scalars, but rather time and space dependent vector fields. Efficient models were developed for both casting and welding to predict heat flow and the relationship to dendrite and grain growth. These codes include many of the non-linear effects, e.g. radiation, which dominate these processes. The home-built FDM code(s) were designed to be useful not only to the scientist, but also to the process engineer. Special output can be requested to compare directly to experimental data. Visualization procedures were developed to visualize critical results, e.g. fusion zone width at the surface opposite that where the arc is applied ('penetration'). Both elaborate and simplified distortion analyses were carried out. It is clear that extensive mechanical property data are critical in order to accurately predict residual stress patterns. A scheme is currently being developed to integrate these modeling tools into a set of control algorithms; however, the success of this approach is critically dependent on the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data.

Giamei, A. F.↗

Sensor-model in-situ control of the RTM composite process

The paper reports on the use of in situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure, FDEMS monitors the advancement of the resin, viscosity, and the impregnation of the fabric, allowing a direct means of monitoring in situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process the effects of time, temperature, vacuum, and pressure.

Kranbuehl, D. E.↗

Inverse problems in the design, modeling and testing of engineering systems

Formulations, classification, areas of application, and approaches to solving different inverse problems are considered for the design of structures, modeling, and experimental data processing. Problems in the practical implementation of theoretical-experimental methods based on solving inverse problems are analyzed in order to identify mathematical models of physical processes, aid in input data preparation for design parameter optimization, help in design parameter optimization itself, and to model experiments, large-scale tests, and real tests of engineering systems.

Alifanov, Oleg M.↗

Hybrid phenology matching model for robust crop phenological retrieval

Crop phenology regulates seasonal agroecosystem carbon, water, and energy exchanges, and is a key component in empirical and process-based crop models for simulating biogeochemical cycles of farmlands, assessing gross and net primary production, and forecasting the crop yield. The advances in phenology matching models provide a feasible means to monitor crop phenological progress using remote sensing observations, with a priori information of reference shapes and reference phenological transition dates. Yet the underlying geometrical scaling assumption of models, together with the challenge in defining phenological references, hinders the applicability of phenology matching in crop phenological studies. The objective of this study is to develop a novel hybrid phenology matching model to robustly retrieve a diverse spectrum of crop phenological stages using satellite time series. The devised hybrid model leverages the complementary strengths of phenometric extraction methods and phenology matching models. It relaxes the geometrical scaling assumption and can characterize key phenological stages of crop cycles, ranging from farming practice-relevant stages (e.g., planted and harvested) to crop development stages (e.g., emerged and mature). To systematically evaluate the influence of phenological references on phenology matching, four representative phenological reference scenarios under varying levels of phenological calibrations in terms of time and space are further designed with publicly accessible phenological information. The results indicate that the hybrid phenology matching model can achieve high accuracies for estimating corn and soybean phenological growth stages in Illinois, particularly with the year- and region-adjusted phenological reference (R-squared higher than 0.9 and RMSE less than 5 days for most phenological stages). The inter-annual and regional phenological patterns characterized by the hybrid model correspond well with those in the crop progress reports (CPRs) from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Compared to the benchmark phenology matching model, the hybrid model is more robust to the decreasing levels of phenological reference calibrations, and is particularly advantageous in retrieving crop early phenological stages (e.g., planted and emerged stages) when the phenological reference information is limited. This innovative hybrid phenology matching model, together with CPR-enabled phenological reference calibrations, holds 3 considerable promise in revealing spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenology over extended geographical regions.

Phenology↗

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE): Improvements and Applications for Studying Precipitation Processes

Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

GCE↗

Analysis procedures and subjective flight results of a simulator validation and cue fidelity experiment

A joint experiment to investigate simulator validation and cue fidelity was conducted by the Dryden Flight Research Facility of NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and NASA Langley Research Center. The primary objective was to validate the use of a closed-loop pilot-vehicle mathematical model as an analytical tool for optimizing the tradeoff between simulator fidelity requirements and simulator cost. The validation process includes comparing model predictions with simulation and flight test results to evaluate various hypotheses for differences in motion and visual cues and information transfer. A group of five pilots flew air-to-air tracking maneuvers in the Langley differential maneuvering simulator and visual motion simulator and in an F-14 aircraft at Ames-Dryden. The simulators used motion and visual cueing devices including a g-seat, a helmet loader, wide field-of-view horizon, and a motion base platform.

Carr, Peter C.↗

Hidden-Markov-Model Analysis Of Telemanipulator Data

Mathematical model and procedure based on hidden-Markov-model concept undergoing development for use in analysis and prediction of outputs of force and torque sensors of telerobotic manipulators. In model, overall task broken down into subgoals, and transition probabilities encode ease with which operator completes each subgoal. Process portion of model encodes task-sequence/subgoal structure, and probability-density functions for forces and torques associated with each state of manipulation encode sensor signals that one expects to observe at subgoal. Parameters of model constructed from engineering knowledge of task.

Hannaford, Blake↗

Empirical studies of software design: Implications for SSEs

Implications for Software Engineering Environments (SEEs) are presented in viewgraph format for characteristics of projects studied; significant problems and crucial problem areas in software design for large systems; layered behavioral model of software processes; implications of field study results; software project as an ecological system; results of the LIFT study; information model of design exploration; software design strategies; results of the team design study; and a list of publications.

Krasner, Herb↗

The development and technology transfer of software engineering technology at NASA. Johnson Space Center

The United State's big space projects of the next decades, such as Space Station and the Human Exploration Initiative, will need the development of many millions of lines of mission critical software. NASA-Johnson (JSC) is identifying and developing some of the Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) technology that NASA will need to build these future software systems. The goal is to improve the quality and the productivity of large software development projects. New trends are outlined in CASE technology and how the Software Technology Branch (STB) at JSC is endeavoring to provide some of these CASE solutions for NASA is described. Key software technology components include knowledge-based systems, software reusability, user interface technology, reengineering environments, management systems for the software development process, software cost models, repository technology, and open, integrated CASE environment frameworks. The paper presents the status and long-term expectations for CASE products. The STB's Reengineering Application Project (REAP), Advanced Software Development Workstation (ASDW) project, and software development cost model (COSTMODL) project are then discussed. Some of the general difficulties of technology transfer are introduced, and a process developed by STB for CASE technology insertion is described.

Pitman, C. L.↗

Advantages of estimating rate corrections during dynamic propagation of spacecraft rates: Applications to real-time attitude determination of SAMPEX

This paper describes real-time attitude determination results for the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX), a gyroless spacecraft, using a Kalman filter/Euler equation approach denoted the real-time sequential filter (RTSF). The RTSF is an extended Kalman filter whose state vector includes the attitude quaternion and corrections to the rates, which are modeled as Markov processes with small time constants. The rate corrections impart a significant robustness to the RTSF against errors in modeling the environmental and control torques, as well as errors in the initial attitude and rates, while maintaining a small state vector. SAMPLEX flight data from various mission phases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the RTSF against a priori attitude and rate errors of up to 90 deg and 0.5 deg/sec, respectively, as well as a sensitivity of 0.0003 deg/sec in estimating rate corrections in torque computations. In contrast, it is shown that the RTSF attitude estimates without the rate corrections can degrade rapidly. RTSF advantages over single-frame attitude determination algorithms are also demonstrated through (1) substantial improvements in attitude solutions during sun-magnetic field coalignment and (2) magnetic-field-only attitude and rate estimation during the spacecraft's sun-acquisition mode. A robust magnetometer-only attitude-and-rate determination method is also developed to provide for the contingency when both sun data as well as a priori knowledge of the spacecraft state are unavailable. This method includes a deterministic algorithm used to initialize the RTSF with coarse estimates of the spacecraft attitude and rates. The combined algorithm has been found effective, yielding accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude and 0.01 deg/sec in the rates and convergence times as little as 400 sec.

Challa, M. S.↗

ISPAN (Interactive Stiffened Panel Analysis): A tool for quick concept evaluation and design trade studies

Interactive Stiffened Panel Analysis (ISPAN) modules, written in FORTRAN, were developed to provide an easy to use tool for creating finite element models of composite material stiffened panels. The modules allow the user to interactively construct, solve and post-process finite element models of four general types of structural panel configurations using only the panel dimensions and properties as input data. Linear, buckling and post-buckling solution capability is provided. This interactive input allows rapid model generation and solution by non finite element users. The results of a parametric study of a blade stiffened panel are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the ISPAN modules. Also, a non-linear analysis of a test panel was conducted and the results compared to measured data and previous correlation analysis.

Hairr, John W.↗

Simulation of Inflated Pahoehoe Lava Flows

A new stochastic model simulates late-stage pahoehoe lobes where random processes dominate emplacement. The model prescribes probabilistic rules for determining where and when parcels of lava move within the lobe. Unlike a classical Brownian motion random walk, the model allows individual parcels to remain dormant, but fluid, for multiple time steps. The randomness of parcel volume transfers within the lobe interior as well as at the margins qualitatively reflects inflation processes observed in the field. The fraction of inflated volume to total volume increases with the total volume, with greater than 75% of the lobe volume contributed through inflation for typical lobes. The influence on planform shape and topographic cross-sectional profiles of total volume, source area and shape, topographic confinement, and sequential breakouts at the lobe margins, are all explored with the stochastic model. Each of these factors influences the overall lobe thickness and width. The model provides a means for assessing the relative importance of these processes through comparisons with field data. For the first time, Gaussian and parabolic functions are quantitatively fit to field measurements of pahoehoe lobes. Both functional forms provide adequate description of the cross-sectional flow shapes. When comparing simulated lobes to field data, sequential breakouts at the lobe margins are found to be an important process controlling the final topographic distribution of observed pahoehoe lobes.

modeling↗

Optimal estimator model for human spatial orientation

A model is being developed to predict pilot dynamic spatial orientation in response to multisensory stimuli. Motion stimuli are first processed by dynamic models of the visual, vestibular, tactile, and proprioceptive sensors. Central nervous system function is then modeled as a steady-state Kalman filter which blends information from the various sensors to form an estimate of spatial orientation. Where necessary, this linear central estimator has been augmented with nonlinear elements to reflect more accurately some highly nonlinear human response characteristics. Computer implementation of the model has shown agreement with several important qualitative characteristics of human spatial orientation, and it is felt that with further modification and additional experimental data the model can be improved and extended. Possible means are described for extending the model to better represent the active pilot with varying skill and work load levels.

Borah, J.↗

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