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DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of Expanding Natural Gas Use in Transportation

This report summarizes an analysis of the impacts of a successful expansion of natural gas use by the transportation sector. While natural gas has been successfully introduced into a few niche markets, it currently makes up a small fraction of transportation energy use. The barriers to expansion include several technical issues currently limiting the natural gas vehicle market . If research and development is successful in addressing these technical challenges, there could be a significant shift to natural gas vehicles. With the increased production of cheap natural gas, the Energy Information Administration within the U.S. Department of Energy projects a surplus production of 5.56 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to be exported in 2050. The analysis presented in this report shows that up to 3.40 trillion cubic feet of this surplus could be used by a set of selected transportation modes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Assessment for Opportunities to Integrate Algae Farming with Wastewater Treatment

This report investigates the economic and scalability potential for algal biomass production based on opportunities to couple algae farming with wastewater treatment (WWT). This activity was motivated in part by a recent influx of technology developers who are currently in various stages of planning, construction, and operation of algae facilities for treating municipal wastewater, all making claims of tremendous economic potential for algal WWT relative to other more traditional WWT methods when viewing treated wastewater as the primary product output and algal biomass as a secondary coproduct. In addition to solving for minimum biomass selling price (MBSP) for a farm configured to maximize biomass production while minimizing water footprint (when sourcing makeup water from local groundwater resources at added cost), the algal WWT cases evaluated here also solved for MBSP while assigning a treatment credit as a means to valorize the treated water as a coproduct in the farm model. This enables a consistent comparison against the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s standard algae farm models.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fostering Nuclear Security Culture through Effective Leadership: An Operational Perspective

Security culture plays a critical role in determining the effectiveness of an organization's security performance, making its significance impossible to overemphasize. It encompasses the collective values, shared perceptions, and habitual actions embraced by all individuals within a nuclear organization—from leadership to frontline staff. When the entire workforce recognizes the reality of potential threats, accepts that security is a shared duty, and integrates security-minded behavior into everyday routines, it fosters an environment where strong security practices are the norm. In such a setting, everyone can take pride and feel reassured in being part of an organization where a strong security culture is deeply embedded. Security culture is based on the broader concept of organizational culture. All organizations—whether families, social clubs, religious institutions, businesses, non-governmental organizations, or governments—possess an underlying culture shaped by core values and beliefs. These values and beliefs influence attitudes and drive behavior throughout the organization. While multiple factors contribute to the development of a strong security culture, leadership plays a particularly pivotal role. In organizations where security culture is well-established, leaders go beyond rhetoric; they demonstrate a genuine commitment to security through their actions. They implement policies and procedures that actively engage all employees, foster open dialogue around security concerns, and encourage teamwork in resolving issues. Furthermore, they reward proactive behavior and ensure that corrective actions are taken promptly. Regular assessments of the organization's security culture allow such leaders to gauge its effectiveness and take strategic steps to strengthen it when necessary. This paper leverages practical, real-world experience to guide leadership and senior management within nuclear organizations through the foundational steps of cultivating a robust, organization-wide culture of nuclear security. It emphasizes the critical importance of early leadership engagement in shaping this culture and outlines a comprehensive approach that includes strategic, tactical, and operational measures. Additionally, it explores methods for fostering a unified vision across all levels of the organization to ensure alignment, commitment, and continuous improvement in nuclear security practices.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Certification systems for sustainable neighbourhoods: What do they really certify?

Certification systems for sustainable neighbourhoods started to emerge around a decade ago. This study analysed the content, structure, weighting and indicators of two established certification systems for sustainable urban development – BREEAM Communities and LEED for Neighborhood Development. Several limitations of these systems were identified: both have a bias for procedure and feature indicators over indicators that assess actual performance; performance demands are set according to a relative understanding of sustainable development; the focus is on internal sustainability, while upstream and downstream impacts of construction are disregarded; the number and distribution of mandatory issues do not cover essential sustainability aspects; and the disproportionately large number of non-mandatory issues makes benchmarking difficult and signals that sustainability aspects are exchangeable. Altogether, this means that an area can be certified without being sustainable. Moreover, the lack of continuous development of certification requirements in the systems means that they risk exerting a conservative effect on urban development, rather than pushing it forward. - Highlights: • BREEAM-C and LEED-ND were analysed in terms of content and structure. • Specific attention was given to the type of indicators used for showing compliance. • In both systems procedure and feature indicators dominate over performance indicators. • Several other limitations of these certification systems were also identified. • Altogether the limitations imply that a certificate does not warrant sustainability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Ultra-Large-Scale Power System Control and Coordination Architecture: A Strategic Framework for Integrating Advanced Grid Functionality

Electric power grids are being stressed by integration of intermittent renewable resources and significant adoption of distributed energy resources. The complexity of the grid is growing rapidly as we attempt to support technical, business, and societal goals for which power grids were not originally designed. Today, we largely take stability of the grid for granted. Stability could significantly degrade or collapse because of new dynamics introduced to the grid, and because the emerging extreme complexity makes traditional control analysis intractable, so that grid behavior is more unpredictable than in the past. This paper describes emerging issues in grid control and provides reasons why the present path of grid control evolution is problematic and presents an ultra-large scale framework for grid control that can solve today’s problems and those expected over the next 30 years. Failure to address these issues in the short term will result in rapidly escalating system deployment and maintenance costs, potential stranded assets related to replacement of the “ad hoc” systems, along with substantial operational risks that are unacceptable under current utility and regulatory practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai‘i

Scientists at Berkeley Lab have teamed up with The University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology for building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai’i. The team is assessing the data necessary to model the feasibility of deploying this technology, the actual models that will be used, and what hurdles need to be overcome to install a demonstration case. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project, and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, making it crucial to select sites with large enough values of these properties. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Both closed-loop and open-loop systems are being investigated. Another option being considered is using cool seawater as the source of chill. Currently work is progressing on two fronts. A hydrogeologic model for a closed-loop system is being developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus, where a subsurface karst system immediately downgradient of the borefield may provide efficient removal of heated groundwater. The team will also develop a technoeconomic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air conditioning system. At the state scale, geographic information system (GIS) layers of various attributes relevant for GHE are being combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i.

Doughty, C↗
DOE OSTI2018

Resilient Cyber Infrastructure for the Minimum Wind Curtailment Remedial Control Scheme

Integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has been significantly increasing in the electric power grid. One of the predominant renewable energy sources, wind energy, possess a significant challenge for grid operations, due to its intermittency, uncertainty and variability. In changing operating conditions with wind uncertainty, part of wind may need to be curtailed for the safe utilization of the transmission system. In order to minimize the wind power curtailment and to keep the power flow on a transmission line under limits, a cyber resilient Distributed Remedial Action Scheme (DRAS) is developed in this paper. The RAS is formulated as an optimization problem, considering the real power flow constraints of the transmission lines and given wind variability. In this paper, DRAS is developed to operate even with failures in the computing nodes to make it cyber-resilient. Distributed simplex algorithm is used for optimization in the distributed RAS. The DRAS is implemented in a decentralized platform called Resilient Information Architecture Platform for Smart Grid (RIAPS) to enable cyber resiliency of DRAS. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through offline simulations of the New England 39 bus system and online simulations of IEEE 14 bus test system. In conclusion, a cyber physical test bed utilizing Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS), Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), and BeagleBones has been used for the online simulation and validation of the developed cyber-resilient RAS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding the Impact of the Secondary Market on Proliferation

Economic, technological, and social trends are changing the way consumers think about used commodities. Many consumers are now more willing to consider used or remanufactured goods. Simultaneously, new technological innovations are arising that make it more cost-effective to remanufacture these goods and easier to find buyers for them. Together, these changes have led to rapid growth in the secondary market and, along with it, a new threat: the potential export of used, listed weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-related commodities by secondary market resellers who are unaware of export control requirements. While the export of WMD-related commodities is regulated throughout the commodity’s lifetime, knowledge of those export control requirements is sometimes lost as commodities are sold and resold. As such, the secondary market for listed commodities pose proliferation risks and export control challenges that may not be well understood by the U.S. Government.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Opportunities for Research and Development of Hybrid Power Plants

Hybrid power plants show promise to provide significant value to the electric grid system especially as shares of renewable energy in systems increase from 10% to 20% or more. Many manufacturers and developers are proactively developing hybrid power plant strategies to ensure plant profitability in markets where it’s important to provide energy that is more predictable and controllable, with higher capacity values, as well as various ancillary services to the grid system. However, there still are many questions around if and when hybrid power plants make sense versus leaving it to the larger grid system to ensure low cost and reliable supply by engaging directly with all individual assets. This report summarizes literature on the state-of-the-art in research concerning hybrid power plants from multiple perspectives including: 1) resource and market opportunities, 2) technology selection and sizing, 3) physical design, and 4) operation and control. The emphasis was placed on wind and solar hybrid power plants (with or without storage) but additional technologies were briefly considered and merit further investigation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mapping Impervious Surface Expansion using Medium-resolution Satellite Image Time Series: A Case Study in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Cities have been expanding rapidly worldwide, especially over the past few decades. Mapping the dynamic expansion of impervious surface in both space and time is essential for an improved understanding of the urbanization process, land-cover and land-use change, and their impacts on the environment. Landsat and other medium-resolution satellites provide the necessary spatial details and temporal frequency for mapping impervious surface expansion over the past four decades. Since the US Geological Survey opened the historical record of the Landsat image archive for free access in 2008, the decades-old bottleneck of data limitation has gone. Remote-sensing scientists are now rich with data, and the challenge is how to make best use of this precious resource. In this article, we develop an efficient algorithm to map the continuous expansion of impervious surface using a time series of four decades of medium-resolution satellite images. The algorithm is based on a supervised classification of the time-series image stack using a decision tree. Each imerpervious class represents urbanization starting in a different image. The algorithm also allows us to remove inconsistent training samples because impervious expansion is not reversible during the study period. The objective is to extract a time series of complete and consistent impervious surface maps from a corresponding times series of images collected from multiple sensors, and with a minimal amount of image preprocessing effort. The approach was tested in the lower Yangtze River Delta region, one of the fastest urban growth areas in China. Results from nearly four decades of medium-resolution satellite data from the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) and China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) show a consistent urbanization process that is consistent with economic development plans and policies. The time-series impervious spatial extent maps derived from this study agree well with an existing urban extent polygon data set that was previously developed independently. The overall mapping accuracy was estimated at about 92.5% with 3% commission error and 12% omission error for the impervious type from all images regardless of image quality and initial spatial resolution.

Gao, Feng↗
NASA NTRS2018

Curating NASA's Past, Present, and Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections

As codified in NASA Policy Directive 7100.10F, the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA Johnson Space Center (hereafter JSC Curation) is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. JSC Curation curates all or part of nine astromaterial collections in seven clean room suites: (1) Apollo Samples (1969; ISO 6-7), (2) Luna Samples (from USSR; 1972; ISO 7), (3) Antarctic Meteorites (1976; ISO 7), (4) Cosmic Dust (1981; ISO 5), (5) Microparticle Impact Collection (formerly called Space Exposed Hardware; 1985; ISO 5), (6) Genesis Solar Wind Atoms (2004; ISO 4); (7) Stardust Comet Particles (2006; ISO 5), (8) Stardust Interstellar Particles (2006; ISO 5), (9) Hayabusa Asteroid Particles (from JAXA; 2010; ISO 5). In addition to the labs that house the samples, we have installed and maintained a wide variety of facilities and infrastructure required to support the clean-rooms: more than 10 different HEPA-filtered air-handling systems, ultrapure dry gaseous nitrogen systems, an ultrapure water system (UPW) and cleaning facilities to provide clean tools and equipment for the labs. We also have sample preparation facilities for making thin sections, microtome sections, and even focused ion-beam (FIB) sections to meet the research requirements of scientists. To ensure that we are keeping the samples as pristine as possible, we routinely monitor the cleanliness of our clean rooms and infrastructure systems. This monitoring includes: daily monitoring of the quality of our UPW, weekly airborne particle counts in the labs, monthly monitoring of the stable isotope composition of the gaseous N2 system, and annual measurements of inorganic or organic contamination in processing cabinets. We track within our databases the current and ever-changing characteristics of more than 250,000 individual samples across our various collections (including the 19,141 samples on loan to 433 Principal Investigators in 24 countries). The next sample return missions that NASA will participate in are Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx (Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security - Regolith Explorer). The designs for a new state-of-the-art suite of clean rooms to house these samples at JSC have been finalized. This includes separate ISO class 5 clean rooms to house each collection, a common ISO class 7 area for general use, an ISO class 7 microtome laboratory, and a separate thin section lab. Additionally, a new cleaning facility is being designed and procedures developed that will allow for enhanced cleaning of cabinets and tools in an inorganically, organically, and biologically clean manner. We are also designing a large multi-purpose Advanced Curation laboratory that will allow us to develop the techniques necessary to fully support the Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx missions, as well as future possible sample return missions (e.g., Lunar Polar Volatiles, Mars, Comet Surface). A micro-CT (micro Computed Tomography) laboratory dedicated to the study of astromaterials has come online within JSC Curation, and we plan to add additional facilities that will enable non-destructive (or minimally-destructive) analyses of astromaterials in the near future (e.g., micro-XRF (micro X-Ray Fluorescence), confocal imaging Raman Spectroscopy). These facilities will be available to: (1) develop sample handling and storage techniques for future sample return missions, (2) be utilized by PET (Positron Emission Tomography) for future sample return missions, (3) for retroactive PET-style analyses of our existing collections, and (4) for periodic assessments of the existing sample collections.

Zeigler, Ryan A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regulation of the Shutdown Defueling and Decommissioning Reactors in the United Kingdom - 16576

Nuclear policy, including for decommissioning, in the United Kingdom is set by the UK Government. The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, NDA, is responsible for managing the clean-up of the UK's nuclear legacy which includes the first generation of Magnox power stations. Magnox Ltd (MXL), owned by Cavendish Fluor Partnership, is the licensee and the management and operations contractor responsible for ten Magnox reactor sites and two restoration sites in the UK, working for the sites' owner, NDA. The work of the company is diverse covering electricity generation at Wylfa (until December 2015), defueling, and preparation for an interim end state, known as Care and Maintenance (C and M) which will precede the final site clearance. The C and M phase is expected to last over 75 years during which the sites are maintained in a passively safe and secure state while radiation levels are left to decay naturally. Preparations for this phase include removing fuel from the reactors and storage ponds; retrieving intermediate level waste from current stores and treating it or converting it to forms suitable for long-term storage or disposal and making sure of the integrity of critical safety systems of the de-fuelled reactors. The Decommissioning, Fuel and Waste programme within the Office for Nuclear Regulation, ONR, regulates nuclear safety in the 12 Magnox nuclear licensed sites. ONR works with the environmental regulators who are responsible for environmental protection on nuclear sites. The focus of this paper is the regulation of nuclear safety by ONR across the Magnox sites and the interactions with nuclear security and the environmental aspects required to achieve effective, proportionate and efficient regulation of these sites in the UK. ONR's strategy for regulating the Magnox defueling and decommissioning sites is focused on enabling the licensee to complete the initial stages of decommissioning and reduce the nuclear and radioactive hazards on its sites. To this effect, ONR's revised inspection guidance is centred on inspecting the (remaining) important systems for safety identified in the safety cases. Other interventions focus on engaging with the licensee on safety significant decommissioning projects to gain evidence of the licensee's readiness prior to and during these activities rather than formal assessment of the associated safety cases. In light of reduced hazards and risks across the de-fueled and decommissioning Magnox reactors, ONR's revised regulatory expectation regarding evolution of emergency arrangements during decommissioning is based on key transition points that follow electricity generation. Implementation of these revised strategies as well as organisational restructuring within the team responsible for regulation of the Magnox fleet has resulted in improved efficiency and consistency in regulatory approach whilst securing the required safety standards in managing decommissioning activities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Renewable Energy Opportunities in Select Southeast Asian Countries: A Geospatial Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Photovoltaics

The costs of renewable energy-based electricity generation have fallen precipitously in recent years to levels that are increasingly competitive with traditional generation such as fossil fuel-based generation. As these costs become increasingly competitive, private developers, policymakers, and energy system planners are searching for opportunities to harness high-quality renewable energy resources. Developing economies are setting ambitious targets and exploring how cost-effective, grid-connected renewable energy options can help power economic growth and meet growing electricity demands. This includes the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that are determined to reach a target of 23% of renewable energy in the region's total primary energy supply by 2025. A critical gap to identifying opportunities and scaling up renewable energy is the lack of quality data and analyses to support decisions on the investment and deployment of renewables - including wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). This work supports decision making by providing high-quality data and spatial analysis of the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV generation in select countries of Southeast Asia - specifically, the ASEAN member states. Generation costs are expressed as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - a commonly used metric that represents the net present value of the unit cost of electricity during the lifetime of a particular electricity generation technology. This is the first spatial estimate of LCOE for these technologies within the ASEAN member states - providing insights into the roles that renewable energy resource quality and other factors may play in generation costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating agricultural trade-offs in the age of sustainable development

Here, a vibrant, resilient and productive agricultural sector is fundamental to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Bringing about such a transformation requires optimizing a range of agronomic, environmental and socioeconomic outcomes from agricultural systems – from crop yields, to biodiversity, to human nutrition. However, these outcomes are not independent of each other – they interact in both positive and negative ways, creating the potential for synergies and trade-offs. Consequently, transforming the agricultural sector for the age of sustainable development requires tracking these interactions, assessing if objectives are being achieved and allowing for adaptive management within the diverse agricultural systems that make up global agriculture. This paper reviews the field of agricultural trade-off analysis, which has emerged to better understand these interactions – from field to farm, region to continent. Taking a “cradle-to-grave” approach, we distill agricultural trade-off analysis into four steps: characterizing the decision setting and identifying the context-specific indicators needed to assess agricultural sustainability, selecting the methods for generating indicator values across different scales, deciding on the means of evaluating and communicating the trade-off options with stakeholders and decision-makers, and improving uptake of trade-off analysis outputs by decision-makers. Given the breadth of the Sustainable Development Goals and the importance of agriculture to many of them, we assess notions of human well-being beyond income or direct health concerns (e.g. related to gender, equality, nutrition), as well as diverse environmental indicators ranging from soil health to biodiversity to climate forcing. Looking forward, areas of future work include integrating the four steps into a single modeling platform and connecting tools across scales and disciplines to facilitate trade-off analysis. Likewise, enhancing the policy relevance of agricultural trade-off analysis requires improving scientist-stakeholder engagement in the research process. Only then can this field proactively address trade-off issues that are integral to sustainably intensifying local and global agriculture – a critical step toward successfully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

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