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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

McFarland, James↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characteristics of low-priced solar PV systems in the U.S.

Despite impressive declines in average prices, there is wide dispersion in the prices of U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems; prices span more than a factor of four. What are the characteristics of the systems with low-prices? Using detailed characteristics of 42,611 small-scale (<15 kW) PV systems installed in 15 U.S. states during 2013, we identify the most important factors that make a system likely to be low-priced (LP). Comparing LP and non-LP systems, we find statistically significant differences in nearly all characteristics for which we have data. Logit and probit model results robustly indicate that LP systems are associated with: markets with few active installers; experienced installers; customer ownership; large systems; retrofits; and thin-film, low-efficiency, and Chinese modules. We also find significant differences across states, with LP systems much more likely to occur in some states, such as Arizona, New Jersey, and New Mexico, and less likely in others, such as California. Our focus on the left tail of the price distribution provides implications for policy that are distinct from recent studies of mean prices. While those studies find that PV subsidies increase mean prices, we find that subsidies also generate LP systems. PV subsidies appear to simultaneously shift and broaden the price distribution. Much of this broadening occurs in a particular location, northern California.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging inter-firm influence in the diffusion of energy efficiency technologies: An agent-based model

Energy efficiency technologies (EETs) are crucial for saving energy and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, the diffusion of EETs in small and medium-sized enterprises is rather slow. Literature shows the interactions between innovation adopters and potential adopters have significant impacts on innovation diffusion. Enterprises lack the motivation to share information, and EETs usually lack observability, which suppress the inter-firm influence. Thus, an information platform, together with proper policies encouraging or forcing enterprises to disclose EET-related information, should help harness inter-firm influence to accelerate EETs' diffusion. To explore whether and how such an information platform affects EETs' diffusion in small and medium-sized enterprises, this report builds an agent-based model to mimic EET diffusion processes. Based on a series of controlled numerical experiments, some counter-intuitive phenomena are discovered and explained. The results show that the information platform is a double-edged sword that notably accelerates EETs' diffusion by approximately 47% but may also boost negative information to diffuse even faster and delay massive adoption of EETs. Increasing network density and the intensity of inter-firm influence are effective to speed EET diffusion, but their impacts diminish drastically after reaching some critical values (0.05 and 0.15 respectively) and eventually harm the stability of the system. Ultimately, the findings implicate that EET suppliers should carefully launch their promising but immature products; policies that can reduce the perceived risk by enterprises and the effort to maintain an informative rather than judgmental information platform can prominently mitigate the negative side effects brought by high fluidity of information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep reinforcement learning based optimization for a tightly coupled nuclear renewable integrated energy system

New ways to integrate energy systems to maximize efficiency are being sought to meet carbon emissions goals. Nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) concepts are a leading solution that couples a nuclear power plant with renewable energy, hydrogen generation plants, and energy storage systems, such that thermal and electrical power are dispatchable to fulfill grid-flexibility requirements while also producing hydrogen and maximizing revenue. Here, this paper introduces a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based framework to address the complex decision-making tasks for NR-IES. The objective is to maximize revenue by generating and selling hydrogen and electricity simultaneously according to their time-varying prices while keeping the energy flow in the subsystems in balance. A Python-based simulator for a NR-IES concept has been developed to integrate with OpenAI Gym and Ray/RLlib to enable an efficient and flexible computational framework for DRL research and development. Three state-of-the-art DRL algorithms have been investigated, including two-delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), soft-actor critic (SAC), proximal policy optimization (PPO), to illustrate DRL’s superiority for controlling NR-IES by comparing it with a conventional control approach, particle swarm optimization (PSO). In this effort, PPO has shown more-stable performance and also better generalization capability than SAC and TD3. Comparisons with PSO have demonstrated that, on average, PPO can achieve 13.9% more mean episode returns from the training process and 29.4% more mean episode returns from the testing process when different hydrogen-production targets are applied.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Impact of CCS Readiness on the Evolution of China's Electric Power Sector

In this study, GCAM-China is exercised to examine the impact of CCS availability on the projected evolution of China’s electric power sector under the Paris Increased Ambition policy scenario developed by Fawcett et al. based on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the COP-21 Paris Agreement. This policy scenario provides a backdrop for understanding China’s electric generation mix over the coming century under several CCS availability scenarios: CCS is fully available for commercial-scale deployment by 2025; by 2050; by 2075; and CCS is unavailable for use in meeting the modelled mitigation targets through 2100. Without having CCS available, the Chinese electric power sector turns to significant use of nuclear, wind, and solar to meet growing demands and emissions targets, at a cost. Should large-scale CCS deployment be delayed in China by 25 years, the modeled per-ton cost of climate change mitigation is projected to be roughly $420/tC (2010 US dollars) by 2050, relative to $360/tC in the case in which CCS is available to deploy by 2025, a 16% increase. Once CCS is available for commercial use, mitigation costs for the two cases converge, equilibrating by 2085. However, should CCS be entirely unavailable to deploy in China, the mitigation cost spread, compared to the 2025 case, doubles by 2075 ($580/tC and $1130/tC respectively), and triples by 2100 ($1050/tC vs. $3200/tC). However, while delays in CCS availability may have short-term impacts on China’s overall per-ton cost of meeting the emissions reduction target evaluated here, as well as total mitigation costs, the carbon price is likely to approach the price path associated with the full CCS availability case within a decade of CCS deployment. Having CCS available before the end of the century, even under the delays examined here, could reduce the total amount of nuclear and renewable energy that must deploy, reducing the overall cost of meeting the emissions mitigation targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

The role of Health Impact Assessment in the setting of air quality standards: An Australian perspective

The approaches used for setting or reviewing air quality standards vary from country to country. The purpose of this research was to consider the potential to improve decision-making through integration of HIA into the processes to review and set air quality standards used in Australia. To assess the value of HIA in this policy process, its strengths and weaknesses were evaluated aligned with review of international processes for setting air quality standards. Air quality standard setting programmes elsewhere have either used HIA or have amalgamated and incorporated factors normally found within HIA frameworks. They clearly demonstrate the value of a formalised HIA process for setting air quality standards in Australia. The following elements should be taken into consideration when using HIA in standard setting. (a) The adequacy of a mainly technical approach in current standard setting procedures to consider social determinants of health. (b) The importance of risk assessment criteria and information within the HIA process. The assessment of risk should consider equity, the distribution of variations in air quality in different locations and the potential impacts on health. (c) The uncertainties in extrapolating evidence from one population to another or to subpopulations, especially the more vulnerable, due to differing environmental factors and population variables. (d) The significance of communication with all potential stakeholders on issues associated with the management of air quality. In Australia there is also an opportunity for HIA to be used in conjunction with the NEPM to develop local air quality standard measures. The outcomes of this research indicated that the use of HIA for air quality standard setting at the national and local levels would prove advantageous. -- Highlights: • Health Impact Assessment framework has been applied to a policy development process. • HIA process was evaluated for application in air quality standard setting. • Advantages of HIA in the air quality standard setting process are demonstrated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Not planning a sustainable transport system

The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and business throughout the country. More specifically, the transport sector shall, among other things, contribute to the achievement of environmental quality objectives in which the development of the transport system plays an important role in the achievement of the objectives. The aim of this study is to analyse if current transport planning supports this policy. This is done by analysing two recent cases: the National Infrastructure Plan 2010–2021, and the planning of Bypass Stockholm, a major road investment. Our results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. Another interesting aspect of the planning processes is that the long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes, neither as a clear goal nor as factor that will influence future transport systems. In this way, the long-term sustainability aspects are not present in the planning. We conclude that the two cases do not contribute to a sustainable transport system. Thus, several changes must be made in the processes, including putting up clear targets for emissions. Also, the methodology for the environmental assessments needs to be further developed and discussed. - Highlights: • Two cases are studied to analyse if current planning supports a sustainable transport system. • Results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. • Long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes. • Current practices do not contribute to a sustainable planning processes. • Methodology and process for environmental assessments must be further developed and discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Conceptualizing strategic environmental assessment: Principles, approaches and research directions

Increasing emphasis has been placed in recent years on transitioning strategic environmental assessment (SEA) away from its environmental impact assessment (EIA) roots. Scholars have argued the need to conceptualize SEA as a process designed to facilitate strategic thinking, thus enabling transitions toward sustainability. The practice of SEA, however, remains deeply rooted in the EIA tradition and scholars and practitioners often appear divided on the nature and purpose of SEA. This paper revisits the strategic principles of SEA and conceptualizes SEA as a multi-faceted and multi-dimensional assessment process. It is suggested that SEA can be conceptualized as series of approaches operating along a spectrum from less to more strategic – from impact assessment-based to strategy-based – with each approach to SEA differentiated by the specific objectives of SEA application and the extent to which strategic principles are reflected in its design and implementation. Advancing the effectiveness of SEA requires a continued research agenda focused on improving the traditional SEA approach, as a tool to assess the impacts of policies, plans and programs (PPPs). Realizing the full potential of SEA, however, requires a new research agenda — one focused on the development and testing of a deliberative governance approach to SEA that can facilitate strategic innovations in PPP formulation and drive transitions in short-term policy and initiatives based on longer-term thinking. - Highlights: • SEA facilitates strategic thinking, enabling transitions toward sustainability. • SEA is conceptualized as a spectrum of approaches, from IA-based to strategy-based. • Each approach variably emphasizes strategic principles in its design and practice. • There is no one conceptualization of SEA that is best, SEA is fit for PPP purpose. • Research is needed to advance SEA to facilitate strategic PPP transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Strategic environmental assessment performance factors and their interaction: An empirical study in China

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been seen as a preventive and participatory environmental management tool designed to integrate environmental protection into the decision-making process. However, the debate about SEA performance and effectiveness has increased in recent decades. Two main challenges exist in relation to this issue. The first is identifying the key influencing factors that affect SEA effectiveness, and the second is analyzing the relationship between SEA and these influencing factors. In this study, influencing factors were investigated through questionnaire surveys in the Chinese context, and then a Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential links and causal relationships among factors. The associations between the independent factors were divided into direct and indirect causal associations. The results indicate that the decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation, while information and data sharing, public participation, expertise and SEA institutions are indirectly related with SEA. The results also suggest that a lack of cooperation between different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. These findings could potentially contribute to the future management and implementation of SEA or enhance existing knowledge of SEA. The results show that the proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability. - Highlights: • Influencing factors were identified and investigated through questionnaire surveys. • Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential links and causal relationships among factors. • Decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation. • Lack of cooperation among different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. • The proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Health impact assessment in Latin American countries: Current practice and prospects

Background: With the objective to avoid and mitigate potential adverse health impacts of projects, programmes and policies, health impact assessment (HIA) offers an opportunity for disease prevention and health promotion. Although HIA has gained importance over the past two decades, it is unclear whether and to what extent HIA practice has been established and institutionalised in Latin America. To address this issue, the current practice and prospects of HIA in Latin America was assessed in the peer-reviewed literature and existing guidelines. Methodology: The peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched using five electronic databases until February 2016. Studies were included on a set of pre-defined criteria. The search was carried out in English, French, Portuguese and Spanish. Additionally, a search for HIA guidelines used in Latin American countries and territories was performed by means of a Google search and on websites of government departments and institutions that may promote HIA. Results: The search yielded 167 hits in the peer-reviewed literature of which 17 articles met inclusion criteria. Only four peer-reviewed articles described prospective HIAs and four featured a discussion of the HIA approach. The remaining nine articles presented health impact evaluations. Most studies were published only recently, after 2012 (88%). Seven HIA guideline documents were identified, two of which were country-specific (i.e. Brazil and Mexico) and the remaining five addressed HIA at the regional level. Conclusions: This study confirmed the paucity of literature pertaining to HIA implementation, as well as HIA guidelines in Latin America. Mexico, Brazil and Cuba have the longest track record in scientific literature and guidelines on HIA. In order to better understand current barriers and limitations to practice and institutionalisation of HIA in Latin American countries, a broad discussion among policy makers, academic institutions and HIA practitioners is warranted nationally and regionally. - Highlights: •We conducted a systematic review pertaining to HIA and a search for guidelines on HIA in use in Latin America. •We identified 17 peer-reviewed articles, four of which were prospective HIAs. •Seven HIA guideline documents were identified, with two country-specific pieces. •There is a paucity of HIA articles in the peer-reviewed literature and guidelines in Latin America, but the situation is improving.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modular evaluation method for subsurface activities (MEMSA). A novel approach for integrating social acceptance in a permit decision-making process for subsurface activities

We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes for subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Environmental impact of electricity relocation: A quasi-natural experiment from interregional electricity transmission

Pollutants such as sulfur would concentrate in the source regions and thus the localized impacts are more obvious. Local balance of electricity by transporting coal has resulted in dense concentration of coal-fired power plants in load centers and caused severe environmental problems. Electricity relocation through interregional transmission is another choice for energy transportation to achieve electricity balance across regions and pollution mitigation. Using interregional electricity transmission (IRET) lines in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper assesses the environmental impact of electricity relocation. In the assessment, the grid organization of “province as executor” in China is considered because it affects the sphere of IRET's influence on pollution mitigation. Here we show the environmental benefits of electricity relocation. We find that, electricity relocation through interregional transmission leads to the growth rate of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) emission decreasing 7% in landing areas and Sichuan province benefits most from electricity relocation. It is interesting that there is no significant increase of SO{sub 2} emission growth rate in sending areas compared to counterfactuals if there had no IRET due to more integration of clean energy and improved emission efficiency in sending areas. Placebo study and robustness check show that the results are quite convincing. Therefore, IRET provides an appealing choice for China's environmental control in eastern region, and it is not necessarily at the cost of pollution in western region. The methodology can be applied to assess the environmental impacts of other program or policy elsewhere. - Highlights: •Proposing a model to assess the environmental impact of electricity relocation •Interregional electricity transmission in China provides a quasi-natural experiment. •Grid organization of “province as executor” is considered that affects sphere of IRET. •Providing insight about environmental necessity of IRET using China as a case study •The model can be used to assess environmental impacts of other program or policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

The attractive concept of simplicity in environmental impact assessment: Perceptions of outcomes in southeastern Brazil

Pressures are mounting for the simplification of environmental impact assessment (EIA). This phenomenon is drawing increasing scholarly attention, but studies have not gone far beyond speculating what could happen as a result of recently implemented or proposed regulatory changes. This paper takes a more longitudinal look at simplified EIAs. The main objective was to analyze the perceived outcomes of a number of simplified EIA processes, using Brazil as the empirical context. More specifically, this paper aimed at understanding: 1) how simplified EIAs have been conceptualized and implemented in southeastern Brazil; and 2) how developers and civil servants in that region perceive the outcomes of simplified EIAs. This study adopted a sequential mixed method research approach. Data was collected through literature reviews, 261 telephone-based interviews and 10 face-to-face interviews. Degrees of EIA simplification can vary significantly within and across jurisdictions. In any case, simplification is often framed as a win-win solution to EIA ineffectiveness, through which regulatory and procedural changes are made to ease the process, while, at the same time, maintaining or providing better environmental protection. This approach is more frequently applied to potentially low-impact processes. Chi-square tests of the data collected through telephone interviews in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais indicated that developers tend to perceive EIA processes as difficult and slow regardless of how simplified it is. Most civil servants, who were directly involved in the implementation of simplified EIAs in state environmental agencies, argued that simplified EIAs are driven mostly by environmental agencies, as these institutions have long been unable to cope with an ever-increasing load of license applications. Policy outcomes of simplified EIAs in the territory are not sufficiently monitored by state agencies. Civil servants revealed concerns about the potential long term effects of EIA simplification on the ground, as they have had limited resources for audits and inspections. - Highlights: •Simplified EIA is conceptualized. •We analyze how simplified EIA is implemented and perceived in Brazil. •Developers perceived EIA as difficult and slow regardless of how simplified it was. •State agencies' low institutional capacity is a key driver of simplification. •Policy outcomes of simplified EIAs in the territory are not monitored.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing direct and indirect emissions of greenhouse gases in road transportation, taking into account the role of uncertainty in the emissions inventory

Highlights: • The use-chain model implemented in this paper is effective in minimizing uncertainty. • Data integration is important to reduce uncertainty. • An innovative metric, Emission Value at Risk, was used to adjust uncertainty values. • Indirect impacts of economic activities change the estimate of GHG emissions. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial era, with dramatic effects on climate change. Transportation is one of the main sources of GHGs, with more than two-thirds of transport-related GHG emissions attributable to road vehicles. Any policy that aims to reduce GHG emissions needs robust measuring methods that guarantee the quality and reliability of primary data and estimates. However, these estimates are subject to uncertainty, both at the stage of compiling accounting tables and at the stage of using this information to formulate a specific policy question. This paper considers how to reduce uncertainty in estimating GHG emissions from road transportation, with specific reference to a regional emissions inventory in Italy. We propose the application of a use-chain model that can tackle uncertainty in measuring GHG emissions by enhancing the quality of the emissions data registry in the inventory. This new metric, which we call emission value at risk (VaR), draws from methodologies and concepts employed in the insurance and financial sectors. Moreover, additional assessments are performed, integrating the inventory data with those available in the regional energy balance and disaggregated sectoral economic dataset. The results show that a sound accounting method enables uncertainty in emission data to be taken into account, thus improving the design of appropriate strategies to reduce GHG emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Measuring greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel of a country’s residents methodological development and application for Sweden

Highlights: • A new method for estimating a country's GHG emissions from international air travel. • A reliable method based on total statistics of departures and on surveys for distance to final destination. • Total emissions for Swedish residents' air travel increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014 • In 2014 Swedish residents air travel emissions was on par with emissions from Swedish car traffic - Abstract: Global civil aviation accounts for 4–5% of total greenhouse gas emissions and these emissions are increasing. In the absence of sufficiently effective global climate instruments, national instruments might be considered as a complement, in which case some way of allocating emissions from international air travel between countries is needed. The purpose of this paper is to develop an accounting method that reflects one country's greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel, and to apply this methodology to Sweden. The new methodology consists of three parts: the number of international air trips made by the country's residents; the average distance of these trips; and the greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km. For Sweden, data for 1990 to 2014 show an increase in the number of trips by Sweden's population of 3.6% per year, resulting in, on average, one international journey (round trip 5800 km) per capita in 2014. The average distance to the final destination has increased only marginally due to simultaneous growth in both long and short trips. However, global average greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km have decreased by 1.9% per year between 1990 and 2014. Because the increase in the number of their trips has outweighed the decrease in emissions per km, the total emissions from Swedish residents' international air travel have increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014. The total emissions from Swedish residents' air travel, including both CO{sub 2} and non-CO{sub 2}-effects, were 11 Mt CO{sub 2} equivalents in 2014, which is the same level as the emissions from Swedish car traffic. This type of reliable data is important when designing policies and for getting public support for new policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

The industry sector consumes more energy and emits more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other end-use sector. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models have been widely used to evaluate climate policy at a global level, and include a representation of industrial energy use. In this study, the projected industrial energy use and accompanying GHG emissions, as well as the model structure of multiple long-term energy models are compared. The models show varying degrees to which energy consumption is decoupled from GDP growth in the future. In all models, the sector remains mostly (>50%) reliant on fossil energy through 2100 in a reference scenario (i.e., absent emissions mitigation policies), though there is significant divergence in the projected ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions. Among the set analyzed here, the more technologically detailed models tend to have less capacity for switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding of economy-wide mitigation responses and costs as an area for future improvement. Analyzing industry subsector material and energy use details can improve the ability to interpret results, and provide insight in feasibility of how emissions reduction can be achieved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Incorporating residential AC load control into ancillary service markets: Measurement and settlement

Many pre-existing air conditioner load control programs can provide valuable operational flexibility but have not been incorporated into electricity ancillary service markets or grid operations. Multiple demonstrations have shown that residential air conditioner (AC) response can deliver resources quickly and can provide contingency reserves. A key policy hurdle to be overcome before AC load control can be fully incorporated into markets is how to balance the accuracy, cost, and complexity of methods available for the settlement of load curtailment. Overcoming this hurdle requires a means for assessing the accuracy of shorter-term AC load control demand reduction estimation approaches in an unbiased manner. This paper applies such a method to compare the accuracy of approaches varying in cost and complexity ? including regression analysis, load matching and control group approaches ? using feeder data, household data and AC end-use data. We recommend a practical approach for settlement, relying on an annually updated set of tables, with pre-calculated reduction estimates. These tables allow users to look up the demand reduction per device based on daily maximum temperature, geographic region and hour of day, simplifying settlement and providing a solution to the policy problem presented in this paper.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

The value of price transparency in residential solar photovoltaic markets

Installed prices for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have declined significantly in recent years. However price dispersion and limited customer access to PV quotes prevents some prospective customers from obtaining low price offers. This study shows that improved customer access to prices - also known as price transparency - is a potential policy lever for further PV price reductions. We use customer search and strategic pricing theory to show that PV installation companies face incentives to offer lower prices in markets with more price transparency. We test this theoretical framework using a unique residential PV quote dataset. Our results show that installers offer lower prices to customers that are expected to receive more quotes. Our study provides a rationale for policies to improve price transparency in residential PV markets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

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