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Physical optics analysis of a 4-reflector antenna, part 2

The results of a rigorous analysis of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-m antenna S-band (2.295-GHz) RF performance are presented. Previous estimation of 1.6 dB S-band gain improvement of the 70-m antenna over the 64-m antenna has been revised to 1.5 dB by this analysis. The S-band right circularly polarized (RCP) beam position offset relative to X-band (8.45-GHz) beam position is predicted to be 0.0045 deg. (0.04 beamwidth). The effective S-band gain loss resulting from non-coincidence with the X-band is predicted to be 0.02 dB. Therefore, this is no longer a concern for the 64-m to 70-m upgrade project.

Cha, A. G.↗

GGOS Bureau of Networks and Observations: Network Infrastructure and Related Activities

The GGOS Bureau of Networks and Observations works with the IAG Services (IVS, ILRS, IGS, IDS, IGFS, and PSMSL) to advocate for the expansion and upgrade of space geodesy networks for the maintenance and improvement of the reference frame and other applications, as well as for the integration with other techniques, including absolute gravity and sea level measurements from tide gauges. New sites are being established following the GGOS concept of “core” and co-location sites, and new technologies are being implemented to enhance performance in data yield as well as accuracy. The Bureau continues to meet with organizations to discuss possibilities, including partnerships, for new and expanded participation. The GGOS Network continues to grow as new stations join every year. The Bureau holds meetings frequently, providing the opportunity for representatives from the services to meet and share progress and plans, and to discuss issues of common interest. It also monitors the status and projects the evolution of the network based on information from the current and expected future participants. Of particular interest at the moment is the integration of gravity and tide gauge networks and the forthcoming establishment of the new absolute gravity reference frame. The IAG Committees and Joint Working Groups play an essential role in the Bureau activity. The Standing Committee on Performance Simulations and Architectural Trade-offs (PLATO) uses simulation and analysis techniques to project future network capability and to examine trade-off options. The Committee on Data and Information is working on a strategy for a GGOS metadata system for data products and a more comprehensive long-term plan for an all-inclusive system. The Committee on Satellite Missions is working to enhance communication with the space missions, to advocate for missions that support GGOS goals and to enhance ground systems support. The IERS Working Group on Site Survey and Co-location (also participating in the Bureau) is working to enhance standardization in procedures, outreach and to encourage new survey groups to participate and improve procedures to determine systems’ reference points, a crucial aid in the detection of technique-specific systematic errors. We will give a brief update on the status and projection of the network infrastructure of the next several years, and the progress and plans of the Committees/Working Group in their critical role in enhancing data product quality and accessibility to the users.

Carey Noll↗

Holistic Small-Signal Stability Analysis for Large-Scale Inverter-Intensive Power Systems with Coupled and Full-Order Dynamics from Control Systems and Power Networks

The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) into the existing power systems introduces tremendous benefits for enhanced sustainability but also poses inevitable challenges in terms of insufficient inertia, potential instability, and complex network dynamics, among others. However, the additional coupling introduced by the interactions among gridfollowing (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) IBRs and the other components (i.e., synchronous generators [SGs], loads, and network, etc.) has not been clearly explored. A holistic, scalable, and quantitative stability analysis framework with the control systems and power networks is still missing. Here, in this paper, to fill in the technical gaps, a holistic small-signal model of the entire system with both rotating generation units and IBRs is established. An extended power flow model with operation dynamics from both generator control schemes and power networks is proposed to provide the varying steady-state operating points for small-signal modeling. The proposed method is compared with MATLAB solvers, and the results show that the proposed approach has a minimum calculation time, which can be less than 12 seconds for a large-scale power system with up to 2,000 buses. Furthermore, a quantitative method is developed to identify the impacts of IBRs on system performance with emphases on the potential stability issues with GFL IBRs, additional benefits of employing GFM IBRs, the feasibility of replacing SGs with GFM IBRs, and the impact of penetration level of different kinds of generation units. Finally, a field island power system is used to verify the proposed approach, and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests are provided to further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Towards the Development of a Multi-Agent Cognitive Networking System for the Lunar Environment

This paper details the development of a multi-agent cognitive system intended to optimize networking performance in the lunar environment. NASA’s current concept of the future of lunar communication, LunaNet [1], outlines a complex network of networks. Challenges such as scalability, interoperability and reliability must first be addressed to successfully fulfill this vision. Machine intelligence can greatly reduce the reliance on human operators and enable efficient operations for tasks such as scheduling and network management. The application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and other automated decision-making techniques can be used to allow network nodes to intelligently sense and adapt to changes in the environment such as link disruptions, new nodes joining the network, and support for a diverse range of protocols. Cognitive networking seeks to evolve these technologies into an autonomous system with improved science data return, reliability, and scalability. In this paper, we study three main areas a means to further develop cognitive networking capabilities: networking and flight software development, analysis of wireless data for modeling and simulation, and development of algorithms for a multi-agent system.

Cognitive Networking↗

Exploratory analysis and performance prediction of big data transfer in High-performance Networks

Big data transfer in large-scale scientific and business applications is increasingly carried out over connections with guaranteed bandwidth provisioned in High-performance Networks (HPNs) via advance bandwidth reservation. Provisioning agents need to carefully schedule data transfer requests, compute network paths, and allocate appropriate bandwidths. Such reserved bandwidths, if not fully utilized, could be simply wasted due to the exclusive access during the approved time window, and cause extra overhead and complexity for resource management. This calls for accurate performance prediction to reserve bandwidths that match actual needs and avoid over-provisioning. We employ machine learning algorithms to predict big data transfer performance based on extensive performance measurements collected in the past several years from data transfer tests using different protocols and toolkits between various end sites on several real-life physical or emulated testbeds. We first analyze the performance patterns in response to a comprehensive list of parameters in end-host systems, network connections, and data transfer applications, which motivate the use of machine learning and also help us identify the effects of latent factors. We then propose threshold- and clustering-based methods to eliminate negative effects of latent factors in data preprocessing and build a robust performance predictor based on customized domain-oriented loss functions. The performance of the proposed methods is verified by extensive experiments using SVR and RFR as well as theoretical analysis of the general performance bound.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Hypothesis Testing for the Integrated Knowledge Engine

The Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) is a tool of Bayesian analysis, based on Bayesian Belief Networks or Bayesian networks for short. A Bayesian network is a graphical model (directed acyclic graph) that allows representing the probabilistic structure of many variables assuming a localized type of dependency called the Markov property. The Markov property in this instance makes any node or random variable to be independent of any non-descendant node given information about its parent. A direct consequence of this property is that it is relatively easy to incorporate new evidence and derive the appropriate consequences, which in general is not an easy or feasible task. Typically we use Bayesian networks as predictive models for a small subset of the variables, either the leave nodes or the root nodes. In IKE, since most applications deal with diagnostics, we are interested in predicting the likelihood of the root nodes given new observations on any of the children nodes. The root nodes represent the various possible outcomes of the analysis, and an important problem is to determine when we have gathered enough evidence to lean toward one of these particular outcomes. This document presents criteria to decide when the evidence gathered is sufficient to draw a particular conclusion or decide in favor of a particular outcome by quantifying the uncertainty in the conclusions that are drawn from the data. The material in this document is organized as follows: Section 2 presents briefly a forensics Bayesian network, and we explore evaluating the information provided by new evidence by looking first at the posterior distribution of the nodes of interest, and then at the corresponding posterior odds ratios. Section 3 presents a third alternative: Bayes Factors. In section 4 we finalize by showing the relation between the posterior odds ratios and Bayes factors and showing examples these cases, and in section 5 we conclude by providing clear guidelines of how to use these for the type of Bayesian networks used in IKE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis and prediction of aperiodic hydrodynamic oscillatory time series by feed-forward neural networks, fuzzy logic, and a local nonlinear predictor

Forecasting of aperiodic time series is a compelling challenge for science. In this work, we analyze aperiodic spectrophotometric data, proportional to the concentrations of two forms of a thermoreversible photochromic spiro-oxazine, that are generated when a cuvette containing a solution of the spiro-oxazine undergoes photoreaction and convection due to localized ultraviolet illumination. We construct the phase space for the system using Takens' theorem and we calculate the Lyapunov exponents and the correlation dimensions to ascertain the chaotic character of the time series. Finally, we predict the time series using three distinct methods: a feed-forward neural network, fuzzy logic, and a local nonlinear predictor. We compare the performances of these three methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Performance analysis of LAN bridges and routers

Bridges and routers are used to interconnect Local Area Networks (LANs). The performance of these devices is important since they can become bottlenecks in large multi-segment networks. Performance metrics and test methodology for bridges and routers were not standardized. Performance data reported by vendors is not applicable to the actual scenarios encountered in an operational network. However, vendor-provided data can be used to calibrate models of bridges and routers that, along with other models, yield performance data for a network. Several tools are available for modeling bridges and routers - Network II.5 was used. The results of the analysis of some bridges and routers are presented.

Hajare, Ankur R.↗

Analysis of Search Results for the Clarification and Identification of Technology Emergence (AR-CITE)

This work examines a scientometric model that clarifies and identifies the technology of emergence from initial discovery (via original scientific and conference literature), through critical discoveries(via original scientific, conference literature and patents), transitioning through Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and ultimately on to commercial application. The purpose of this study therefore, is to address the relationships among multiple disparate sources of information as a way to explain systematically the emergence of new technologies from innovation on through to commercial application. In one example, we investigate the combinations of four distinct and separate searchable on-line networked sources (i.e., scholarly publications and citation, patents, news archives, and on-line mapping networks) as they are assembled to become one collective network (a data set for analysis of relations). In another example, we investigate the combinations of five distinct sources (i.e., university R&D, industry R&D, product emergence, and two levels of annual market revenue [$1B and $10B]). These established networks and relationship become the basis from which to quickly analyze the temporal flow of activity (searchable events) for multiple example subject domains we investigated.

Abercrombie, Robert K↗

Coarse-Grain Bandwidth Estimation Techniques for Large-Scale Space Network

In this paper, we describe a top-down analysis and simulation approach to size the bandwidths of a store-andforward network for a given network topology, a mission traffic scenario, and a set of data types with different latency requirements. We use these techniques to estimate the wide area network (WAN) bandwidths of the ground links for different architecture options of the proposed Integrated Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) Network.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

SDN Project

The SDN Project completed on time and on budget and successfully accomplished 100% of the scope of work outlined in the original Statement of Project Objective (SOPO). The SDN Project formed an alliance between Ameren Corporation, University of Illinois Urbana- Champaign (UIUC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL), and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. (SEL). The objective of the SDN Project is to address Topic Area of Interest 2: Sustain critical energy delivery functions while responding to a cyber-intrusion under Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0000797. The goal of the project is to design and commercially release technology that provides a method to sustain critical energy delivery functions during a cyber intrusion and to do this control system operators need the ability to quickly identify and isolate the affected network areas, and re-route critical information and control flows around. The objective of the SDN Project is to develop a Flow Controller that monitors, configures, and maintains the safe, reliable network traffic flows of all the local area networks (LANs) on a control system in the Energy sector. The SDN team identified the core attributes of a control system and produced an SDN flow controller that has the same core attributes enabling networks to be designed, configured and deployed that maximize the whitelisted, deny-bydefault and purpose built networks. This project researched, developed and commercially released technology that: Enables all field networks be to configured and monitored as if they are a single asset to be protected; Enables greatly improved and even precalculated response actions to reliability and cyber events; Supports pre-configured localized response actions tailored to provide resilience against failures and centralized response to cyber-attacks that improve network reliability and availability; Architecturally enables the right subject matter experts, who are usually the information technology and operational technology engineers, to be the ones centrally administering the technology and responding to events; Simplifies network configuration, improving deterministic Ethernet transport times, and providing instant visualization on where the communication circuits are and how all circuits are impacted when changes (e.g., configuration changes, failures or intrusions) happen, allowing operators to minimize downtime; and Improves the ability to identify deviations in network behavior resulting in detection and analysis of potential cyber intrusions and faster response times Results: This project has forever changed the way critical infrastructure networks are designed, secured, deployed and maintained. The cybersecurity and performance advantages achieved are significant, simply put traditional networking has been obsoleted while the team maintained Ethernet interoperability avoiding any legacy concerns. The team commercially released technology that accomplished all the cybersecurity goals outlined in the SOPO and completed it by executing the project management plan approved in the initial contract. The resulting Energy sector SDN flow controller model number is SEL-5056 and can be freely downloaded from the www.SELinc.com website. This technology not only improves the cybersecurity of control systems but has measured results that it improves the performance and reliability of the control system as well. This means the system owners can confidently apply it to their systems knowing that it will, “first do no harm” but actually improve the system as well. Success of the project is best measured by the sales and deployment of the technology. System owners in industrial, electric, defense, and oil and gas only months after commercial release have approved plans for deployment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A new calibration method for time delay standard and its application

A method which is used to measure time delay accurately by using a Type 900-LB slotted line is described. The accuracy for calibrating time delay of a precision coaxial air line Type 900-L is about + or - (0.4 to 0.6)ps, and for coaxial cables with VSWR less than 1.5 and time delay t less than 50ns is about + or - (3 to 5)ps. Theoretical analysis and mathematical derivation of microwave networks in cascade are given. Methods to eliminate the errors which are caused by the discontinuities and the error analysis of the measuring system are presented. Skin effect analysis of the transient characteristic of coaxial transmission line are discussed in detail. Methods to eliminate the errors which result from using the calibrated time delay standard to calibrate time interval measurement instruments are presented. The estimation of errors and formulae for correction of those errors are described.

Su, B. W.↗

Data Optical Networking Architecture Using Wavelength-Division Multiplexing Method for Optical Sensors

Recently there has been a growth in the number of fiber optical sensors used for health monitoring in the hostile environment of commercial aircraft. Health monitoring to detect the onset of failure in structural systems from such causes as corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and fatigue is a critical factor in safety as well in aircraft maintenance costs. This report presents an assessment of an analysis model of optical data networking architectures used for monitoring data signals among these optical sensors. Our model is focused on the design concept of the wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) method since most of the optical sensors deployed in the aircraft for health monitoring typically operate in a wide spectrum of optical wavelengths from 710 to 1550 nm.

Nguyen, Hung D.↗

Distributed Link Removal Using Local Estimation of Network Topology

In this paper, we consider the problem of network structure manipulation in the absence of information on the global network topology. In particular, the problem of removing some of links is investigated in order to slow or stop the spread of disease in a network while preserving its connectivity. Existing methods solve this combinatorial problem in a centralized manner and they require the global information of network structure. In this paper, we propose a distributed design algorithm to compute a suboptimal solution to this problem efficiently by mimicking gradient based method, namely by iteratively removing one or multiple links at a time from the network. Specifically, using matrix perturbation analysis we formulate an optimization problem involving the eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix and whose solution is equal to a suboptimal solution to the original problem. This strategy also enables us to overcome the combinatorial issue of the problem. Distributed algorithms to estimate the eigenvector and to verify network’s connectivity are then proposed which facilitate us to solve the new optimization problem. In addition, topological insights into the proposed algorithm and optimality of its solution are also discussed. Lastly, the proposed distributed design method is demonstrated and evaluated via several numerical examples.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Recurrent Neural Network Language Models for Open Vocabulary Event-Level Cyber Anomaly Detection

Automated analysis methods are crucial aids for monitoring and defending a network to protect the sensitive or confidential data it hosts. This work introduces a flexible, powerful, and unsupervised approach to detecting anomalous behavior in computer and network logs; one that largely eliminates domain-dependent feature engineering employed by existing methods. By treating system logs as threads of interleaved ``sentences'' (event log lines) to train online unsupervised neural network language models, our approach provides an adaptive model of normal network behavior. We compare the effectiveness of both standard and bidirectional recurrent neural network language models at detecting malicious activity within network log data. Extending these models, we introduce a tiered recurrent architecture, which provides context by modeling sequences of users' actions over time. Compared to isolation forests and Principal Components Analysis (PCA), two popular anomaly detection algorithms, we observe superior performance on the Los Alamos National Laboratory Cyber Security dataset. For log-line-level predictions, our best performing character-based model provides test set anomaly scores ranking red team events in the 98th percentile on average, and yields 0.97 area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, demonstrating the strong fine-grained anomaly detection performance of this approach on open vocabulary logging sources.

Cyber Analysis, Deep Learning, language analysis, ↗

Structural analysis of cortical porosity applied to HR-pQCT data

Purpose: The investigation of cortical porosity is an important aspect of understanding biological, pathoetiological, and biomechanical processes occurring within the skeleton. With the emergence of HR-pQCT as a noninvasive tool suitable for clinical use, cortical porosity at appendicular sites can be directly visualizedin vivo. The aim of this study was to introduce a novel topological analysis of the cortical pore network for HR-pQCT data and determine the influence of resolution on measures of cortical pore network microstructure and topology. Methods: Cadaveric radii were scanned using HR-pQCT at two different voxel sizes (41 and 82μm) and also using μCT at a voxel size of 18 μm. HR-pQCT and μCT image sets were spatially coregistered. Segmentation and quantification of cortical porosity (Ct.Po) and mean pore diameter (Ct.Po.Dm) were achieved using an established extended cortical analysis technique. Topological classification of individual pores was performed using topology-preserving skeletonization and multicolor dilation algorithms. Based on the pore skeleton topological classification, the following parameters were quantified: total number of planar surface-skeleton canals (N.Slabs), tubular curve-skeleton canals (N.Tubes), and junction elements (N.Junctions), mean slab volume (Slab.Vol), mean tube volume (Tube.Vol), mean slab orientation (Slab.θ), mean tube orientation (Tube.θ), N.Slabs/N.Tubes, and integral (total) slab volume/integral tube volume (iSlab.Vol/iTube.Vol). An in vivo reproducibility study was also conducted to assess short-term precision of the topology parameters. Precision error was characterized using root mean square coefficient of variation (RMSCV%). Results: Correlations toμCT values for Ct.Po were significant for both the 41 and 82 μm HR-pQCT data (41: r{sup 2} = 0.82, p < 0.001, 82: r{sup 2} = 0.75, p < 0.001). For Ct.Po.Dm, only the 41 μm data were significantly predictive of μCT values (r{sup 2} = 0.72, p < 0.01) Data at both HR-pQCT voxel sizes were strongly predictive of the μCT values for N.Slabs (41: r{sup 2} = 0.93, p < 0.001; 82: r{sup 2} = 0.84, p < 0.001), N.Tubes (41: r{sup 2} = 0.94, p < 0.001; 82: r{sup 2} = 0.84, p < 0.001), and N.Junctions (41: r{sup 2} = 0.93, p < 0.001; 82: r{sup 2} = 0.78, p < 0.001), though proportional bias was evident in these correlations. Weak correlations were seen for iSlab.Vol/iTube.Vol at both voxel sizes (41: r{sup 2} = 0.52, p < 0.01; 82: r{sup 2} = 0.39, p < 0.05). Slab.Vol was significantly correlated to μCT data at 41 μm (r{sup 2} = 0.60, p < 0.01) but not at 82 μm, while Tube.Vol was significantly correlated at both voxel sizes (41: r{sup 2} = 0.79, p < 0.001; 82: r{sup 2} = 0.68, p < 0.01). In vivo precision error for these parameters ranged from 2.31 to 9.68 RMSCV%. Conclusions: Strong correlations betweenμCT- and HR-pQCT-derived measurements were found, particularly in HR-pQCT images obtained at 41 μm. These data are in agreement with our previous study investigating the effect of voxel size on standard HR-pQCT metrics of trabecular and cortical microstructure, and extend our previous findings to include topological descriptors of the cortical pore network.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Data Analysis Challenges for Multi-Messenger Astrophysics

Recent multi-messenger observations of gravitational-wave and high-energy neutrino sources together with electromagnetic signatures have opened new ways of observing the Universe. These promise a future in which physics and astronomy will be advanced by combining observations and data from across the electromagnetic spectrum with gravitational waves and neutrinos. We consider the challenges the field is facing in fully utilizing data for multi-messenger astrophysics. Such data come from heterogeneous detector networks and standards, and their analysis is often time-critical to guide further observations. In this area, science capabilities depend on the interplay among observation, theory and computational/modeling work. Advances in data science and computing present additional opportunities and considerations in analyzing such data. We invited ADASS participants to a Birds of a Feather session to engage in discussion on the challenges and opportunities in data analysis for multimessenger astrophysics.

Peter S Shawhan↗

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