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At least 1,801 records · Page 100

Test methodology for validation of multi-frequency models of renewable energy generators using small-signal perturbations

Providing trustworthy and accurate multi-frequency (or harmonic) models for renewable energy generators (REG) is an ongoing challenge for harmonic studies. There have been effective attempts to propose and design a test device to validate the harmonic models, mainly based on shunt current perturbations. However, using additional devices for perturbations is costly for converter-based test sites. This paper provides the test specifications to extend the application of the grid emulators for voltage perturbations and appropriate harmonic model validation. Besides, the effects of the sequence couplings, initial emissions, and power set-points on the test results have been overlooked in the literature. Considering these effects, this paper proposes a generic test methodology to obtain more accurate models in the sequence domain. The experimental verification of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a 7 MVA grid emulator for testing of a 2 MVA photo-voltaic converter and a 2 MVA Type 3 wind turbine. This way, the test challenges, specifications, and recommendations are presented using the MW-scale experiments on different REGs. Furthermore, the effects of sequence couplings and initial emissions on the calculation results are investigated and compared. The proposed methodology is applicable for harmonic model validation as well as empirical modelling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Autonomous control for Heat-Pipe microreactor using Data-Driven model predictive control

To enable a self-regulating capability for heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy achieved via model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. This paper demonstrates data-driven methods for predicting the distribution and transient of temperatures and heat fluxes at selected components and regions in a 37-HP system, based on which the optimal control actions in response to changes in user-defined setpoints can be found. We present the development and validation of linear state-space model, feedfoward, and recurrent neural networks. Here, we compare the performance of MPCs with different modeling approaches in terms of following setpoints for temperatures and averaged output heat fluxes. The accuracies of the three data-driven models are similar, but the control actions initiated by neural-network-based MPC can better adapt to drastic changes in setpoints yet generate the smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Corrosion of Al-Fe self-pierce riveting joints with multiphysics-based modeling and experiments

Self-piercing riveting (SPR) is an extensively used joining technique to assemble dissimilar materials. However, this joining of the dissimilar materials can generate galvanic/crevice corrosion, which can drastically impact the mechanical properties and the service life of the joint. In this study, a multiphysics-based hybrid modeling approach is developed for the galvanic corrosion of the Al-Fe SPR joints, which can consider the corrosion initiation and corrosion evaluation jointly. Experimental studies are first performed to extract information regarding the corrosion initiation sites, corrosion evolution and overall corrosion induced material loss in SPR joints. The initiation information is then passed onto the multiphysics FE model thus making it a hybrid model. This model can help understand the influences of metal microstructure on the corrosion propagation while the morphology changes can also be analyzed. Using the developed hybrid modeling approach, thorough parametric studies can be performed to explore the coupled impacts of multiple corrosion factors on the corrosion behavior of the joints. The developed hybrid model is validated on the prediction of galvanic corrosion for the SPR joints by comparing with experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Verifying and assessing the performance of the perturbation strategy in polynomial chaos ensemble forecasts of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

Here we present an analysis of two recent efforts aimed at quantifying the uncertainties in a 30-day HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model forecast of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico, with particular emphasis on the separation of Loop Current Eddy Franklin, using Polynomial Chaos methods. The analysis herein explores whether the model perturbations lead to realistic representation of the uncertainty in the Gulf Circulation. Comparisons of model output with Sea Surface Height and current mooring data show that the observational data generally falls within the envelope of the ensemble and that the modal decomposition delivers “realistic” perturbations in the Loop Current region. We use information theory metrics to quantify the information gain and the computational trade-offs between different wind and initial conditions perturbation modes. The relative entropy measures indicate that two modes for initial condition perturbations are enough, in our model configuration, to represent the uncertainty in the Loop Current region; while two modes for wind forcing perturbations are necessary in order to estimate the uncertainty in the coastal zone. The ensemble statistics are then explored using the Polynomial Chaos surrogate and the newly developed contour boxplot methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Skewness and kurtosis of mean transverse momentum fluctuations at the LHC energies

The first measurements of skewness and kurtosis of mean transverse momentum ($\langle$$p_T\rangle$) fluctuations are reported in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV, Xe–Xe collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.44 TeV and pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector. The measurements are carried out as a function of system size $\langle$dN ch /dη$\rangle$$^{1/3}_{|η|<0.5}$, using charged particles with transverse momentum ($p_T$) and pseudorapidity (η), in the range 0.2<$p_T$<3.0 GeV/c and |η|<0.8, respectively. In Pb–Pb and Xe–Xe collisions, positive skewness is observed in the fluctuations of $\langle$$p_T\rangle$ for all centralities, which is significantly larger than what would be expected in the scenario of independent particle emission. This positive skewness is considered a crucial consequence of the hydrodynamic evolution of the hot and dense nuclear matter created in heavy-ion collisions. Furthermore, similar observations of positive skewness for minimum bias pp collisions are also reported here. Kurtosis of $\langle$$p_T\rangle$ fluctuations is found to be in good agreement with the kurtosis of Gaussian distribution, for most central Pb–Pb collisions. Hydrodynamic model calculations with MUSIC using Monte Carlo Glauber initial conditions are able to explain the measurements of both skewness and kurtosis qualitatively from semicentral to central collisions in Pb–Pb system. Color reconnection mechanism in PYTHIA8 model seems to play a pivotal role in capturing the qualitative behavior of the same measurements in pp collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Electron-Conformational Model of Ryanodine Receptors of the Heart Cell

The main ideas of an electron-conformational (EC) model of ligand-activated ryanodine channels (RyR) that reduces many degrees of freedom of this gigantic nanoscopic molecular complex to two so-called electron and conformational degrees of freedom are presented. In the toy model, the conformational potential or energy profile of the RyR channel represents two branches that describe the dependence of energy on the conformational coordinate (reaction coordinate) in the initial and ligand-activated states, respectively. A model extension that takes into account both the tetrameric structure of the RyR channel and additional (orthogonal) rotational conformational mode has been considered. The EC model has been demonstrated to give a biophysical basis to the traditional phenomenological model of Markov chains. To demonstrate the possibilities of the EC model, we refer to examples of model description of the dynamics of isolated RyR channels and clusters of RyR channels in release units of the heart cell.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Iterative Importance Sampling Algorithms for Parameter Estimation

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is a challenging task. Several sampling algorithms have been proposed over the past years that take an iterative approach to constructing a proposal distribution. We investigate the applicability of such algorithms by applying them to two realistic and challenging test problems, one in subsurface flow, and one in combustion modeling. More specifically, we implement importance sampling algorithms that iterate over the mean and covariance matrix of Gaussian or multivariate t-proposal distributions. Our implementation leverages massively parallel computers, and we present strategies to initialize the iterations using “coarse” MCMC runs or Gaussian mixture models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MAPPER – A NOVEL CAPABILITY TO SUPPORT NUCLEAR MODEL VALIDATION AND MAPPING OF BIASES AND UNCERTAINTIES

This paper overviews the initial results of a new project at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory -- supported via an internal seed funding program -- focused on the development of a novel computational capability, called MAPPER, to support model validation. The MAPPER development aims to eliminate the need for empirical criteria, such as similarity indices, often employed to identify applicable experiments for given application conditions. To achieve that, MAPPER employs an information-theoretic-based approach, based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence principle, to combine responses of available or to-be-built experiments with application responses of interest using a training set of samples generated using randomized execution of the experiments and the application high fidelity analysis models. These samples are condensed using reduced order modeling techniques in the form of a joint probability distribution function (PDF) connecting each application response of interest with a new effective experimental response. The initial focus of the MAPPER capability will be to support the confirmatory analysis required for criticality safety analysis of storage facilities which require k-eff biases to be known for safe operation. This paper reports some of the initial results obtained with MAPPER as applied to a set of critical experiments for which existing similarity-based methods have been shown to provide inaccurate estimates of the biases.

Mertyurek, Ugur↗

CFD Simulation of Helium Flow Loop Test Section

A helium flow loop is being assembled at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to analyze heat transfer enhancement for systems such as blanket and divertor components. To efficiently identify optimum geometries for heat transfer enhancement in these applications, simulation work is performed to optimize test section designs that are built and tested in the helium flow loop that operates at 4 MPa and a mass flow rate of 100 g/s. Different ribbed geometries that examine rib shape, rib height, rib orientation, rib spacing, and three dimensional orientation are modeled and simulated in STAR-CCM+ to compare their ability to remove heat and mitigate pressure drop. Following the simulations, models are selected and manufactured for the helium flow loop tests. Simulations initially focus on a hydrodynamic study to determine the appropriate mesh and physics models and then add a heat flux to analyze the heat transfer abilities of the models. The simulations are run in steady state and use a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes k-ε turbulence model. The helium is modeled as an ideal gas. The simulation explores models of geometries that enhance the heat transfer and decrease pressure drop with an overall goal of increasing fluid collision with the wall. Enhanced geometries are simulated to select appropriate designs for manufacturing, and preliminary experimental results are used to validate the simulations. Furthermore, the factors that are being analyzed in the comparison between the experimental and the simulated results include matching thermocouple temperatures, pressure drop, roughness, and fluid velocity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MatCal Users Guide: Release 1.3.0

Any continuum mechanics model will require three components: (1) a discretized geometry of the boundary value problem being studied, (2) the partial differential equations to be solved, and (3) the initial conditions and boundary conditions for the problem. To describe material behavior in these computational models, material models contribute to (2) the underlying equations and, occasionally, to (3) the initial conditions for the simulation. These material models can exhibit a mathematical form that is empirically based, based on first principles, or developed from both empirical observations and known physics. In general, these models are meant to represent a class of materials with well understood behavior. As a result, material models have parameters that must be tuned or calibrated so that the model response matches characterization data available for the specific material it is intended to represent when used to simulate a specific system. For simple models, such as isotropic, linear elastic materials in solid mechanics, this calibration process can be a simple analytical calculation directly extracting the parameters from experimental measurements. For complex models that have many inputs and require many characterization datasets to adequately identify the material behavior, the model calibration process can require an inverse problem approach where an optimization is performed to tune the model parameters to the available data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model Plus (DER-CAM+), Version 1.0.0

DER-CAM+ v1.0.0 is internally referred to as DER-CAM v5.0.0. Due to fundamental changes from previous versions, a new name (DER-CAM+) will be used for DER-CAM version 5.0.0 and above. DER-CAM+ is a Decision Support Tool for Decentralized Energy Systems that has been tailored for microgrid applications, and now explicitly considers electrical and thermal networks within a microgrid, ancillary services, and operating reserve. DER-CAM was initially created as an exclusively economic energy model, able to find the cost minimizing combination and operation profile of a set of DER technologies that meet energy loads of a building or microgrid for a typical test year. The previous versions of DER-CAM were formulated without modeling the electrical/thermal networks within the microgrid, and hence, used aggregate single-node approaches. Furthermore, they were not able to consider operating reserve constraints, and microgrid revenue streams from participating in ancillary services markets. This new version DER-CAM+ considers these issues by including electrical power flow and thermal flow equations and constraints in the microgrid, revenues from various ancillary services markets, and operating reserve constraints.

Stadler, Michael↗

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification with Applications in Wind Turbine Aerodynamics: Preprint

The propagation of input uncertainty through engineering models allows designers to better understand the range of possible outcomes resulting from design decisions. This could lead to greater trust between modelers and stakeholders in the wind energy industry. In this study, we apply multilevel-multifidelity Monte Carlo sampling to flow over an airfoil, assuming uncertainty in the inflow conditions, and characterize the associated computational savings compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches. The truth model is provided by an airfoil simulation with a very fine computational time step, and auxiliary lower-level models are provided by simulations with coarser time steps. Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes and detached eddy simulations are used to obtain two different model fidelities. The primary quantity of interest for this analysis is the lift force, which is examined for a range of angles of attack. We launch an initial set of 'trial' samples to determine the optimal allocation of model evaluations, and these trial evaluations are used to inform a larger sampling effort. Using the multilevel-multifidelity approach, we achieve roughly an order of magnitude variance reduction in expected lift as compared to the standard Monte Carlo approach with an equivalent computational cost.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

When and Where Lithium Plating Occurs, Its Correlation with Microstructure Heterogeneity, and the Mechanisms That Initiate and Self-Regulate Electrochemical Heterogeneity (A02-0444)

A microstructure scale electrochemical LIB model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. Model predicts active material particle surface roughness and size distribution (respectively, non-uniform curvature within and between particles) initiate in-plane heterogeneity, and that particle size heterogeneity at the separator interface controls the lithium plating preferential deposition ("Where"). These in-plane heterogeneities are then exacerbated by through-plane heterogeneities induced at fast charge as electrolyte depletion occurs and concentrates intercalation reaction near the anode-separator interface. Also, magnitude and occurrence of lithium plating is controlled by effective, or macroscale, microstructure parameters ("When"). As local states of charge start to diverge between nearby active material regions, overpotential differences induced by OCP difference kick in and contribute to reduce these SOC local heterogeneities. However, for staged materials such as graphite, with OCP profile alternating between plateaus and varying regions, this balancing mechanism is, respectively, inactive and active. This leads to a dynamic, non-monotonic, in-plane heterogeneity time evolution for state of charge and Faraday current density, for which their respective in-plane heterogeneity magnitude alternates. Such behavior has been modeled both for the whole electrode at the microstructure scale and at the particle scale. In-plane heterogeneities are usually considered to be detrimental, as they result in material non-uniform utilization (i.e., under and over stressed regions) and earlier degradations. However, this work provides a more granular approach as it discriminates between a harmful in-plane heterogeneity (non-uniform curvature) that triggers SOC in-plane heterogeneity, and a beneficial in-plane heterogeneity (Faraday current density) that contributes to reduce SOC in-plane heterogeneity. This work comprehensively explains the mechanisms that initiate, exacerbate, and regulate heterogeneity at the microstructure scale, while providing some design suggestions to reduce both in-plane and through-plane heterogeneities, as summarized in the graphical abstract.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models

Atmospheric aerosol and chemistry modules are key elements in Earth system models (ESMs), as they predict air pollutant concentrations and properties that can impact human health, weather, and climate. The current uncertainty in climate projections is partly due to the inaccurate representation of aerosol direct and indirect forcing. Aerosol/chemistry parameterizations used within ESMs and other atmospheric models span large structural and parameter uncertainties that are difficult to assess independently of their host models. Moreover, there is a strong need for a standardized interface between aerosol/chemistry modules and the host model to facilitate portability of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations from one model to another, allowing not only a comparison between different parameterizations within the same modeling framework, but also quantifying the impact of different model frameworks on aerosol/chemistry predictions. To address this need, we have initiated a new community effort to coordinate the construction of a Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT) for use across weather and climate models. We aim to organize a series of community workshops and hackathons to design and build GIANT, which will serve as the interface between a range of aerosol/chemistry modules and the physics and dynamics components of atmospheric host models. GIANT will leverage ongoing efforts at the U.S. modeling centers focused on building next-generation ESMs and the international AeroCom initiative to implement this common aerosol/chemistry interface. GIANT will create transformative opportunities for scientists and students to conduct innovative research to better characterize structural and parametric uncertainties in aerosol/chemistry modules, and to develop a common set of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical simulations of the ablative Rayleigh-Taylor instability in planar inertial-confinement-fusion targets using the FastRad3D code

The ablative Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability is a central issue in the performance of laser-accelerated inertial-confinement-fusion targets. Historically, the accurate numerical simulation of this instability has been a challenging task for many radiation hydrodynamics codes, particularly when it comes to capturing the ablatively stabilized region of the linear dispersion spectrum and modeling ab initio perturbations. Here, we present recent results from two-dimensional numerical simulations of the ablative RT instability in planar laser-ablated foils that were performed using the Eulerian code FastRad3D. Our study considers polystyrene, (cryogenic) deuterium-tritium, and beryllium target materials, quarter- and third-micron laser light, and low and high laser intensities. An initial single-mode surface perturbation is modeled in our simulations as a small modulation to the target mass density and the ablative RT growth-rate is calculated from the time history of areal-mass variations once the target reaches a steady-state acceleration. By performing a sequence of such simulations with different perturbation wavelengths, we generate a discrete dispersion spectrum for each of our examples and find that in all cases the linear RT growth-rate γ is well described by an expression of the form γ=α [kg/(1+ϵ kLm)]1/2−βkVa, where k is the perturbation wavenumber, g is the acceleration of the target, Lm is the minimum density scale-length, Va is the ablation velocity, and ϵ is either one or zero. The dimensionless coefficients α and β in the above formula depend on the particular target and laser parameters and are determined from two-dimensional simulation results through the use of a nonlinear curve-fitting procedure. While our findings are generally consistent with those of Betti et al. (Phys. Plasmas 5, 1446 (1998)), the ablative RT growth-rates predicted in this investigation are somewhat smaller than the values previously reported for the same target and laser parameters. It is speculated that differences in the equation-of-state and opacity models are largely responsible for the discrepancy. Resolution of this issue awaits the development of better experimental diagnostics capable of measuring small-wavelength (5–20 μm) perturbation growth due to the ablative RT instability in the linear regime.

Bates, J. W. (ORCID:0000000188087240)↗

Improved Frequency-Domain Steady-State Modeling of the Dual-Active-Bridge Converter Considering Finite ZVS Transition Time Effects

This article presents an improved analytical modeling (IAM) approach for the dual-active-bridge (DAB) converter in the frequency-domain. Specifically, finite transition times are incorporated into the improved modeling that are significant in DAB converters operated at high frequency. The IAM approach is first motivated by comparing traditional frequency-domain modeling against realistic simulation results in LTspice. Next, the IAM approach is mathematically developed in an iterative fashion, where the conventional frequency-domain approach is used as the initialization of the operational behavior of the converter. Subsequent iterations of the IAM algorithm incorporate finite rise- and falltimes of device output capacitances based on detailed switching behavior analyses, which may considerably perturb the desired modulation parameters (i.e., phase shift and zero states). While the initially proposed IAM approach demonstrates advantages over ideal modeling, it is still shown to exhibit errors when applied to device transitions with significant nonlinearity in parasitic output capacitance. To account for this, a three-slope approximation to the switching transition is then motivated and developed, which enables significantly improved steady-state prediction accuracy. Simulation and experimental results confirm unacceptable inaccuracies associated with the conventional frequency-domain modeling across a wide range of operating conditions, alongside enhanced accuracy provided by the proposed modeling approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

What Questions Would a Systems Engineer Ask to Assess Systems Engineering Models as Credible

Digital Systems Engineering strategies typically call for digital Systems Engineering models to be retained in repositories and certified as an authoritative source of truth (enabling model reuse, qualification, and collaboration). In order for digital Systems Engineering models to be certified as authoritative (credible), they need to be assessed - verified and validated - and with the amount of uncertainty in the model quantified (consider reusing someone else's model without knowing the author). Due to this increasing model complexity, the authors assert that traditional human-based methods for validating, verifying, and uncertainty quantification - such as human-based peer-review sessions - cannot sufficiently establish that a digital Systems Engineering model of a complex system is credible. Digital Systems Engineering models of complex systems can contain millions of nodes and edges. The authors assert that this level of detail is beyond the ability of any group of humans - even working for weeks at a time - to discern and catch every minor model infraction. In contrast, computers are highly effective at discerning infractions with massive amounts of information. The authors suggest that a better approach might be to focus the humans at what model patterns should be assessed and enable the computer to assess the massive details in accordance with those patterns - by running through perhaps 100,000 test loops. In anticipation of future projects to implement and automate the assessment of models at Sandia National Laboratories, a study was initiated to elicit input from a group of 25 Systems Engineering experts. The authors positioning query began with - 'What questions would a Systems Engineer ask to assess Systems Engineering models for credibility?" This report documents the results of that survey.

42 ENGINEERING↗

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