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Implementation of Combinatorial Optimization Techniques for Automated Fiber Placement Through Thickness Defect Stack-Up Minimization

The Computer Aided Process Planning (CAPP) module was developed to facilitate and accelerate the process planning workflow for Automated Fiber Placement (AFP). CAPP assists process planners in identifying optimal starting point locations and layup strategies for each ply of a laminate. Ply optimization operates on measurement and scoring of geometry-based defects such as gaps, overlaps, angle deviation, and steering. This paper expands on the established framework for analyzing defect stack-up through thickness of a laminate. Four different combinatorial optimization algorithms are implemented and evaluated: (1) genetic algorithm, (2) differential evolution, (3) particle swarm, and (4) greedy search. The algorithms identify the optimal combination of ply-level layup strategies, by scoring potential laminates on defect stacking, using two different objective functions. A final optimization approach is also presented which trades some performance for a large gain in efficiency. These approaches are compared to a randomized combination using a complex tool surface in a virtual case study. The result is a streamlined methodology for comparing different laminate-level manufacturing strategies and minimizing the through thickness defect stack up.

CAPP↗
DOE OSTI2018

Large-eddy Simulations of Spray Variability Effects on Flow Variability in a Direct-injection Spark-ignition Engine Under Non-combusting Operating Conditions

Large-eddy Simulations (LES) have been carried out to investigate spray variability and its effect on cycle-to-cycle flow variability in a direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engine under non-reacting conditions. Initial simulations were performed of an injector in a constant volume spray chamber to validate the simulation spray set-up. Comparisons showed good agreement in global spray measures such as the penetration. Local mixing data and shot-to-shot variability were also compared using Rayleigh-scattering images and probability contours. The simulations were found to reasonably match the local mixing data and shot-to-shot variability using a random-seed perturbation methodology. After validation, the same spray set-up with only minor changes was used to simulate the same injector in an optically accessible DISI engine. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements were used to quantify the flow velocity in a horizontal plane intersecting the spark plug gap. The engine was operated in a skip-fired operating mode and comparisons focused on cycles that included fuel injection, but no spark event and therefore no combustion. 105 total LES engine cycles were simulated using a parallel cycle simulation approach and 3 different perturbation methods in an attempt to isolate the effects of shot-to-shot spray variability and the initial turbulent flow field as well as their interaction effects on overall engine CCVs. The experimental mean and standard deviations were reasonably well matched by the simulations, though quantitative comparisons near the injection event during the intake stroke were difficult due to the high uncertainty in the PIV measurements at these crank angles. The 3 simulation perturbation methods resulted in very similar results, though further analysis found the current parallel cycle approach may be limiting the ability of the simulations to isolate the spray and flow effects.

Cycle-to-cycle Variability↗
DOE OSTI2014

Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the prior information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a laptop or desktop PC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Measurement of matter–antimatter differences in beauty baryon decays

Differences in the behaviour of matter and antimatter have been observed in K and B meson decays, but not yet in any baryon decay. Such differences are associated with the non-invariance of fundamental interactions under the combined charge-conjugation and parity transformations, known as CP violation. Here, using data from the LHCb experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, we search for CP-violating asymmetries in the decay angle distributions of Λ$^0_b$ baryons decaying to pπ - π + π - and pπ - K + K - final states. These four-body hadronic decays are a promising place to search for sources of CP violation both within and beyond the standard model of particle physics. We find evidence for CP violation in Λ$^0_b$ to pπ - π + π - decays with a statistical significance corresponding to 3.3 standard deviations including systematic uncertainties. This represents the first evidence for CP violation in the baryon sector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-index mesoscopic surface reconstructions of Au surfaces using Bayesian force fields

Metal surfaces have long been known to reconstruct, significantly influencing their structural and catalytic properties. Many key mechanistic aspects of these subtle transformations remain poorly understood due to limitations of previous simulation approaches. Using active learning of Bayesian machine-learned force fields trained from ab initio calculations, we enable large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to describe the thermodynamics and time evolution of the low-index mesoscopic surface reconstructions of Au (e.g., the Au(111)-‘Herringbone,’ Au(110)-(1 × 2)-‘Missing-Row,’ and Au(100)-‘Quasi-Hexagonal’ reconstructions). This capability yields direct atomistic understanding of the dynamic emergence of these surface states from their initial facets, providing previously inaccessible information such as nucleation kinetics and a complete mechanistic interpretation of reconstruction under the effects of strain and local deviations from the original stoichiometry. We successfully reproduce previous experimental observations of reconstructions on pristine surfaces and provide quantitative predictions of the emergence of spinodal decomposition and localized reconstruction in response to strain at non-ideal stoichiometries. A unified mechanistic explanation is presented of the kinetic and thermodynamic factors driving surface reconstruction. Furthermore, we study surface reconstructions on Au nanoparticles, where characteristic (111) and (100) reconstructions spontaneously appear on a variety of high-symmetry particle morphologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-Based Fast-Frequency Estimation and Control of Low-Inertia Microgrids

The lack of inertial response from non-synchronous, inverter-based generation in microgrids makes the power system vulnerable to a large rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) and frequency excursions. Energy storage systems (ESSs) can be utilized to provide fast-frequency support to prevent such large excursions in the system. However, fast-frequency support is a power-intensive application that has a significant impact on the ESS lifetime. In this paper, a framework that allows the ESS operator to provide fast-frequency support as a service is proposed. The framework maintains the desired quality-of-service (limiting the ROCOF and frequency) while taking into account the ESS lifetime and physical limits. The framework utilizes moving horizon estimation (MHE) to estimate the frequency deviation and ROCOF from noisy phase-locked loop (PLL) measurements. These estimates are employed by a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that computes control actions by solving a finite-horizon, online optimization problem. Additionally, this approach avoids oscillatory behavior induced by delays that are common when using low-pass filters as with traditional derivative-based (virtual inertia) controllers. MATLAB/Simulink simulations on a test system from Cordova, Alaska, show the effectiveness of the MHE-MPC approach to reduce frequency deviations and ROCOF of a low-inertia microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capturing plume behavior in complex terrain: an overview of the Nevada National Security Site Meteorological Experiment (METEX21)

METEX21 was an atmospheric tracer release experiment executed at the Department of Energy’s Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in the southwestern U.S to study terrain-induced wind and thermodynamic conditions that influence local-scale (<5-km) plume transport under varying atmospheric forcing conditions. Meteorological observations were collected using 10-m tall meteorological towers, 2-m tall tripods with 3-d sonic anemometers, a 3-m tall eddy covariance flux tower, Doppler profiling lidars, Doppler scanning lidars, weather-balloon launched radiosondes, and a tethered balloon equipped with wind, temperature, and aerosol sensors at heights up to 800 m. A smoke tracer was released along three transects in the horizontal and vertical directions and observed with video cameras, aerosol sensors and lidars (via aerosol backscatter). The observations showed evidence of large-scale/synoptic transience as well as local-scale upslope and downslope flows, along-axis valley flows, recirculation eddies on leeward slopes, and periods of strong shear and veer aloft. The release days were classified as either synoptically-driven or locally-driven, and a single case day is presented in detail for each. Synoptically-forced days show relatively narrow smoke plumes traveling down the valley from north to south (with the predominant wind direction), with little deviation in transport direction regardless of the elevation or ground locations of the smoke releases, except near the presence of leeside recirculation eddies. Locally-forced days exhibit a wider range of plume behavior due to the combination of thermally-induced valley and slope flows, which are often flowing in different cardinal directions, and wind shear found aloft at higher altitudes and elevations. We saw evidence of smoke lofting on top of the mesas due to strong upslope flows on these days. A major finding of this experiment was the effectiveness of scanning lidars to measure 2-dimensional plume transport out to a 2–3 km distance; much farther than could be visibly observed. METEX21 was the first of three planned tracer experiments at NNSS, and future experiments will incorporate multiple tracers to improve individual plume identification so that finer resolution flow details can be attained from these measurements, as well as deploy a larger suite of meteorological instrumentation, including more temperature profiling data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Toward Immersed Boundary Simulation of High Reynolds Number Flows

In the immersed boundary (IB) method, the surface of an object is reconstructed with forcing terms in the underlying flow field equations. The surface may split a computational cell removing the constraint of the near wall gridlines to be aligned with the surface. This feature greatly simplifies the grid generation process which is cumbersome and expensive in particular for structured grids and complex geometries. The IB method is ideally suited for Cartesian flow solvers. The flow equations written in Cartesian coordinates appear in a very simple form and several numerical algorithms can be used for an efficient solution of the equations. In addition, the accuracy of numerical algorithms is dependent on the underlying grid and it usually deteriorates when the grid deviates from a Cartesian mesh. The challenge for the IB method lies in the representation of the wall boundaries and in providing an adequate near wall flow field resolution. The issue of enforcing no-slip boundary conditions at the immersed surface has been addressed by several authors by imposing a local reconstruction of the solution. Initial work by Verzicco et al. was based on a simple linear, one-dimensional operator and this approach proved to be accurate for boundaries largely aligned with the grid lines. Majumdar et al. used various multidimensional and high order polynomial interpolations schemes. These high order schemes, however, are keen to introduce wiggles and spurious extrema. Iaccarino & Verzicco and Kalitzin & Iaccarino proposed a tri-linear reconstruction for the velocity components and the turbulent scalars. A modified implementation that has proven to be more robust is reported in this paper. The issue of adequate near wall resolution in a Cartesian framework can initially be addressed by using a non-uniform mesh which is stretched near the surface. In this paper, we investigate an unstructured approach for local grid refinement that utilizes Cartesian mesh features. The computation of high Reynolds number wall bounded flows is particularly challenging as it requires the consideration of thin turbulent boundary layers, i.e. near wall regions with large gradients of the flow field variables. For such flows, the representation of the wall boundary has a large impact on the accuracy of the computation. It is also critical for the robustness and convergence of the flow solver.

Kalitzin, Georgi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for the charge asymmetry in $pp$ → $t\bar{t}$ production at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Inclusive and differential measurements of the top–antitop ($t\bar{t}$) charge asymmetry ${A}_{C}^{t\bar{t}}$ and the leptonic asymmetry ${A}_{C}^{\ell\bar{\ell}}$ are presented in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement uses the complete Run 2 dataset, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 , combines data in the single-lepton and dilepton channels, and employs reconstruction techniques adapted to both the resolved and boosted topologies. A Bayesian unfolding procedure is performed to correct for detector resolution and acceptance effects. The combined inclusive $t\bar{t}$ charge asymmetry is measured to be ${A}_{C}^{t\bar{t}}$ = 0.0068 ± 0.0015, which differs from zero by 4.7 standard deviations. Differential measurements are performed as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum and longitudinal boost of the $t\bar{t}$ system. Both the inclusive and differential measurements are found to be compatible with the Standard Model predictions, at next-to-next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamics perturbation theory with next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. The measurements are interpreted in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory, placing competitive bounds on several Wilson coefficients.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Magnetohydrodynamic motion of a two-fluid plasma

Here, the two-fluid Maxwell system couples frictionless electron and ion fluids via Maxwell’s equations. When the frequencies of light waves, Langmuir waves, and single-particle cyclotron motion are scaled to be asymptotically large, the two-fluid Maxwell system becomes a fast-slow dynamical system. This fast-slow system admits a formally-exact single-fluid closure that may be computed systematically with any desired order of accuracy through the use of a functional partial differential equation. In the leading order approximation, the closure reproduces magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). Higher order truncations of the closure give an infinite hierarchy of extended MHD models that allow for arbitrary mass ratio, as well as perturbative deviations from charge neutrality. The closure is interpreted geometrically as an invariant slow manifold in the infinite-dimensional two-fluid phase space, on which two-fluid motions are free of high-frequency oscillations. This perspective shows that the full closure inherits a Hamiltonian structure from two-fluid theory. By employing infinite-dimensional Lie transforms, the Poisson bracket for the all-orders closure may be obtained in closed form. Thus, conservative truncations of the single-fluid closure may be obtained by simply truncating the single-fluid Hamiltonian. Moreover, the closed-form expression for the all-orders bracket gives explicit expressions for a number of the full closure’s conservation laws. Notably, the full closure, as well as any of its Hamiltonian truncations, admits a pair of independent circulation invariants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Time-integrated activity coefficient estimation for radionuclide therapy using PET and a pharmacokinetic model: A simulation study on the effect of sampling schedule and noise

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of PET-based treatment planning for predicting the time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs). Methods: The parameters of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model were fitted to the biokinetic data of 15 patients to derive assumed true parameters and were used to construct true mathematical patient phantoms (MPPs). Biokinetics of 150 MBq {sup 68}Ga-DOTATATE-PET was simulated with different noise levels [fractional standard deviation (FSD) 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01%], and seven combinations of measurements at 30 min, 1 h, and 4 h p.i. PBPK model parameters were fitted to the simulated noisy PET data using population-based Bayesian parameters to construct predicted MPPs. Therapy simulations were performed as 30 min infusion of {sup 90}Y-DOTATATE of 3.3 GBq in both true and predicted MPPs. Prediction accuracy was then calculated as relative variability v{sub organ} between TIACs from both MPPs. Results: Large variability values of one time-point protocols [e.g., FSD = 1%, 240 min p.i., v{sub kidneys} = (9 ± 6)%, and v{sub tumor} = (27 ± 26)%] show inaccurate prediction. Accurate TIAC prediction of the kidneys was obtained for the case of two measurements (1 and 4 h p.i.), e.g., FSD = 1%, v{sub kidneys} = (7 ± 3)%, and v{sub tumor} = (22 ± 10)%, or three measurements, e.g., FSD = 1%, v{sub kidneys} = (7 ± 3)%, and v{sub tumor} = (22 ± 9)%. Conclusions: {sup 68}Ga-DOTATATE-PET measurements could possibly be used to predict the TIACs of {sup 90}Y-DOTATATE when using a PBPK model and population-based Bayesian parameters. The two time-point measurement at 1 and 4 h p.i. with a noise up to FSD = 1% allows an accurate prediction of the TIACs in kidneys.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Modified Sand’s Time Incorporating Li-Ion Transport Across the SEI: Basis for Understanding Li Dendrite Formation and Li-Metal Battery Electrolyte Selection

Abstract Understanding the initiation of lithium dendrites remains elusive, largely due to the intricate role of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) which forms on the Li surface during electrodeposition. Many studies have utilized the classical Sand’s equation to estimate the onset time when lithium dendrites begin to form. The Sand’s equation provides the time when the cation (Li+) concentration at the electrode-electrolyte interface approaches zero under diffusion-limited conditions in galvanostatic Li electrodeposition. However, recent experimental studies have revealed that the observed lithium dendrite onset time deviates considerably from the Sand’s time. Here, we show that this deviation from classical theory is likely due to the transport of Li+ ions through the SEI - a transport limitation that is much more dominant in controlling dendrite formation. We develop a ‘modified’ Sand's equation, incorporating the SEI layer and the diffusional transport across it to predict Li dendrite onset times. To validate this approach, we conducted Li electrodeposition experiments at various current densities using two distinct organic electrolytes. Analysis of the results demonstrates that the modified Sand's equation provides a more accurate prediction of dendrite onset times, highlighting the importance of incorporating SEI into transport models of Li plating in next-generation rechargeable Li-metal batteries.

Ma, Yuanman (ORCID:0000000200444811)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Building the Scientific Basis for Cyber Resilience of Critical Infrastructure

Rigorous methods and models are needed to quantify, measure, and increase the cyber resilience of critical infrastructure. An adversary may exploit vulnerabilities in the vital networks such as industrial control systems (ICS) associated with critical infrastructure (e.g., energy, financial, transportation, security), in order to achieve harmful consequences. In cyber systems, the number of vulnerabilities may be large, the attack surface changes over time, and the problem consists of both technical and non-technical factors (e.g., errors in software and human error). Given this complex and dynamic landscape, strategically mitigating risk is important, where “risk” considers both the probability of an event and the consequences if that event occurs. One way to decrease risk is to address consequences by ensuring that critical infrastructure is resilient. In this context, resilience is characterized by the magnitude and duration of a deviation from targeted performance levels, given a disruption. Increasing resilience decreases the consequences of a successful attack.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1997

Effects of static fingertip loading on carpal tunnel pressure

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between carpal tunnel pressure and fingertip force during a simple pressing task. Carpal tunnel pressure was measured in 15 healthy volunteers by means of a saline-filled catheter inserted percutaneously into the carpal tunnel of the nondominant hand. The subjects pressed on a load cell with the tip of the index finger and with 0, 6, 9, and 12 N of force. The task was repeated in 10 wrist postures: neutral; 10 and 20 degrees of ulnar deviation; 10 degrees of radial deviation; and 15, 30, and 45 degrees of both flexion and extension. Fingertip loading significantly increased carpal tunnel pressure for all wrist angles (p = 0.0001). Post hoc analyses identified significant increase (p < 0.05) in carpal tunnel pressure between unloaded (0 N) and all loaded conditions, as well as between the 6 and 12 N load conditions. This study demonstrates that the process whereby fingertip loading elevates carpal tunnel pressure is independent of wrist posture and that relatively small fingertip loads have a large effect on carpal tunnel pressure. It also reveals the response characteristics of carpal tunnel pressure to fingertip loading, which is one step in understanding the relationship between sustained grip and pinch activities and the aggravation or development of median neuropathy at the wrist.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRS2011

Emissions of Black Carbon, Organic, and Inorganic Aerosols From Biomass Burning in North America and Asia in 2008

Reliable assessment of the impact of aerosols emitted from boreal forest fires on the Arctic climate necessitates improved understanding of emissions and the microphysical properties of carbonaceous (black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA)) and inorganic aerosols. The size distributions of BC were measured by an SP2 based on the laser-induced incandescence technique on board the DC-8 aircraft during the NASA ARCTAS campaign. Aircraft sampling was made in fresh plumes strongly impacted by wildfires in North America (Canada and California) in summer 2008 and in those transported from Asia (Siberia in Russia and Kazakhstan) in spring 2008. We extracted biomass burning plumes using particle and tracer (CO, CH3CN, and CH2Cl2) data. OA constituted the dominant fraction of aerosols mass in the submicron range. The large majority of the emitted particles did not contain BC. We related the combustion phase of the fire as represented by the modified combustion efficiency (MCE) to the emission ratios between BC and other species. In particular, we derived the average emission ratios of BC/CO = 2.3 +/- 2.2 and 8.5 +/- 5.4 ng/cu m/ppbv for BB in North America and Asia, respectively. The difference in the BC/CO emission ratios is likely due to the difference in MCE. The count median diameters and geometric standard deviations of the lognormal size distribution of BC in the BB plumes were 136-141 nm and 1.32-1.36, respectively, and depended little on MCE. These BC particles were thickly coated, with shell/core ratios of 1.3-1.6. These parameters can be used directly for improving model estimates of the impact of BB in the Arctic.

Kondo, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Tropospheric Ozone From 1877 to 2016, Observed Levels, Trends and Uncertainties

From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have different uncertainties and biases, and the data records differ with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness. In this study, various ozone measurement methods and ozone datasets are reviewed and selected for inclusion in the historical record of background ozone levels, based on relationship of the measurement technique to the modern UV absorption standard, absence of interfering pollutants, representativeness of the well-mixed boundary layer and expert judgement of their credibility. There are significant uncertainties with the 19th and early 20th-century measurements related to interference of other gases. Spectroscopic methods applied before 1960 have likely underestimated ozone by as much as 11% at the surface and by about 24% in the free troposphere, due to the use of differing ozone absorption coefficients. There is no unambiguous evidence in the measurement record back to 1896 that typical mid-latitude background surface ozone values were below about 20 nmol mol–1, but there is robust evidence for increases in the temperate and polar regions of the northern hemisphere of 30–70%, with large uncertainty, between the period of historic observations, 1896–1975, and the modern period (1990–2014). Independent historical observations from balloons and aircraft indicate similar changes in the free troposphere. Changes in the southern hemisphere are much less. Regional representativeness of the available observations remains a potential source of large errors, which are difficult to quantify. The great majority of validation and intercomparison studies of free tropospheric ozone measurement methods use ECC ozonesondes as reference. Compared to UV-absorption measurements they show a modest (~1–5% ±5%) high bias in the troposphere, but no evidence of a change with time. Umkehr, lidar, and FTIR methods all show modest low biases relative to ECCs, and so, using ECC sondes as a transfer standard, all appear to agree to within one standard deviation with the modern UV-absorption standard. Other sonde types show an increase of 5–20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970–1995. Biases and standard deviations of satellite retrieval comparisons are often 2–3 times larger than those of other free tropospheric measurements. The lack of information on temporal changes of bias for satellite measurements of tropospheric ozone is an area of concern for long-term trend studies.

UV absorption standard↗

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