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At least 1,801 records · Page 100

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

Electric transmission value and its drivers in United States power markets

Electric transmission infrastructure plays a vital role during extreme weather and supply disruptions and can enable low-cost electricity systems. This paper contributes to a more complete understanding of the value and cost-effectiveness of transmission, as well as barriers to its development. By studying wholesale energy market prices in the United States between 2012 and 2022, we find that additional transfer capacity between regions would have been especially valuable, with a median value of $116 million per GW per year. This capacity would often have provided balanced benefits to each region. The market value of transmission was highly influenced by a small fraction of time: 5% of hours typically captured at least 45% of the total value. These peak periods were primarily driven by unforeseen changes in conditions within one day of operations. Annualized transmission infrastructure cost estimates were lower than the average market value for most locations, including all links crossing regional seams, where the value-to-cost ratio was often greater than 4. This suggests that there are barriers to developing valuable grid infrastructure. These results complement forward-looking modeling studies and support efforts to improve modeling practices.

Energy economics↗

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Diverse Land across the Continental United States

The current methods for designing hydrological infrastructure rely on precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency curves. However, they cannot accurately predict flooding caused by snowmelt or rain-on-snow events, potentially leading to underdesigned infrastructure and property damage. To address these issues, next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves have been developed for the open condition, characterizing water available for runoff from rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow. However, they lack consideration of land use land cover (LULC) factors, which can significantly affect runoff processes. We address this limitation by expanding open area NG-IDF dataset to include eight vegetated LULCs over the continental United States, including forest (deciduous, evergreen, mixed), shrub, grass, pasture, crop, and wetland. This NG-IDF 2.0 dataset offers a comprehensive analysis of hydrological extreme events and their associated drivers under different LULCs at a continental scale. It will serve as a useful resource for improving standard design practices and aiding in the assessment of infrastructure design risks. Additionally, it provides useful insights into how changes in LULC impact flooding magnitude, mechanisms, timing, and snow water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Targeted emission reductions from global super-polluting power plant units

There are more than 30,000 biomass- and fossil-fuel-burning power plants now operating worldwide, reflecting a tremendously diverse infrastructure, which ranges in capacity from less than a megawatt to more than a gigawatt. In 2010, 68.7% of electricity generated globally came from these power plants, compared with 64.2% in 1990. Although the electricity generated by this infrastructure is vital to economic activity worldwide, it also produces more CO2 and air pollutant emissions than infrastructure from any other industrial sector. Here, we assess fuel- and region-specific opportunities for reducing undesirable air pollutant emissions using a newly developed emission dataset at the level of individual generating units. For example, we find that retiring or installing emission control technologies on units representing 0.8% of the global coal-fired power plant capacity could reduce levels of PM2.5 emissions by 7.7–14.2%. In India and China, retiring coal-fired plants representing 1.8% and 0.8% of total capacity can reduce total PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired plants by 13.2% and 16.0%, respectively. Our results therefore suggest that policies targeting a relatively small number of ‘super-polluting’ units could substantially reduce pollutant emissions and thus the related impacts on both human health and global climate.

Tong, Dan↗

Towards cost-competitive middle distillate fuels from ethanol within a market-flexible C2 platform-based biorefinery concept

Ethanol to middle distillates (ETMD) is a promising pathway to produce sustainable liquid fuels to decarbonize the hard-to-electrify transportation sectors due to (1) the abundant sugar/starch and lignocellulosic biomass, (2) the existing deployment scale of fuel ethanol production (similar to 29 billion gallons per year globally), and (3) emerging opportunities in C2+ alcohol synthesis from CO2. Here we report a conceptual market-responsive biorefinery centered around a new ETMD pathway based on one-step ethanol to butene-rich olefins (ETO) over a Cu-Zn-Y/Beta catalyst. Specifically, this ethanol conversion pathway comprises one-step ETO, oligomerization, and hydrotreating. This ETO is distinct from that in the conventional ethanol-to-jet process which is based on two-step ethanol to ethylene and ethylene oligomerization to butenes. Butene-rich olefins can be shifted to butadiene-rich products by simply changing the reaction atmosphere from hydrogen to inert gas over the same ETO catalyst. Leveraging the experimental results, baseline techno-economic analysis (TEA) and sensitivity analysis indicate that the ethanol conversion cost is $0.60 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), with opportunities for further cost reduction via improving the liquid hydrocarbon yield and space velocities, and process optimization on balancing dewatering of ethanol feed prior to the ETO step. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of liquid hydrocarbons derived from corn starch ethanol with butadiene as coproduct is $1.64 per GGE, in the range that is cost competitive with petroleum kerosene-type jet fuel. Projected MFSP for cellulosic ethanol (corn stover) derived hydrocarbons is below $3.00 per GGE and co-production of butadiene further reduces the MFSP to $1.70 per GGE. The Well-to-Wake life-cycle analysis indicates that 85% greenhouse gas emission reduction can be achieved when using corn stover compared to petroleum reference and the associated carbon credits will provide significant economic incentives to favor the cellulosic ethanol-derived hydrocarbon fuels. This study demonstrates a low-cost pathway to middle distillate fuels leveraging existing ethanol infrastructure, where catalysis innovation drives the reduction of process complexity and flexible coproduction of a value-added chemical product.

Zhang, Junyan↗

Repurposing Inactive Oil and Gas Wells for Energy Storage: Maximizing the Potential Via Optimal Drivetrain Control: Preprint

In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on utilizing energy storage to enhance grid resilience against disruptive events. While renewable energy supply continues to expand, gravity-based solutions like pumped hydro remain dominant in the commercial space. However, their geographical limitations constrain availability, scalability, and increase costs for co-locating solar and wind energy. An alternative approach proposes repurposing idle oil and gas wells located closer to existing grid infrastructure, offering a promising and cost-effective solution. This paper addresses the optimization and control of a regenerative drive system coupled to an interior permanent magnet synchronous machine in a 300-meter well with a 100-Newton weight. The study employs a dynamic MATLAB/Simulink model to simulate the operation of the electric drivetrain system during storage and discharge operations. The results demonstrate an initial round-trip efficiency of 85.9% for the electrical system alone and identify crucial factors for maximizing efficiency. The optimized operation and control of the electromechanical drivetrain system hold great potential for minimizing the levelized cost of storage while maximizing efficiency and revenue generation.

ENERGY STORAGE,ENGINEERING↗

Implementation of ATLAS Distributed Computing monitoring dashboards using InfluxDB and Grafana

For the last 10 years, the ATLAS Distributed Computing project has based its monitoring infrastructure on a set of custom designed dashboards provided by CERN. This system functioned very well for LHC Runs 1 and 2, but its maintenance has progressively become more difficult and the conditions for Run 3, starting in 2021, will be even more demanding; hence a more standard code base and more automatic operations are needed. A new infrastructure has been provided by CERN, based on InfluxDB as the data store and Grafana as the display environment. ATLAS has adapted and further developed its monitoring tools to use this infrastructure for data and workflow management monitoring and accounting dashboards, expanding the range of previous possibilities with the aim to achieve a single, simpler, environment for all monitoring applications. This document describes these tools and the data flows for monitoring and accounting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evolution of DUNE’s Production System

The DUNE experiment will start running in 2029 and record 30 PB/year of raw waveforms from Liquid Argon TPCs and photon detectors. The size of individual readouts can range from 100 MB to a typical 8 GB full readout of the detector, and even 100 TB for extended readouts from supernova candidates. These data then need to be cataloged, stored and distributed for processing worldwide. This massive amount of data and a heterogeneous computing environment necessitates a powerful and robust distributed computing infrastructure. In the process of building up that infrastructure, DUNE’s production system has recently undergone an overhaul, in which it has integrated 1) a new workflow management system (justIN) 2) a new data catalog (MetaCat) and 3) a state-of-the-art data management system (Rucio). Simulations of DUNE’s Far Detector and its prototypes ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift (ProtoDUNE-HD) and ProtoDUNE Vertical Drift (ProtoDUNE-VD), as well as data from ProtoDUNE-HD serve as the first tests of this infrastructure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Exploiting Kubernetes to Simplify the Deployment and Management of the Multi-purpose CMS Pilot Job Factory

GlideinWMS, a widely utilized workload management system in high-energy physics (HEP) research, serves as the backbone for efficient job provisioning across distributed computing resources. It is utilized by various experiments and organizations, including CMS, OSG, Dune, and FIFE, to create HTCondor pools as large as 600k cores. In particular, a shared factory service historically deployed at UCSD has been configured to interface with more than 500 routes to compute clusters. As part of our team’s initiative to modernize infrastructure and enhance scalability, we undertook the migration of the GlideinWMS factory service into the Kubernetes environment. Leveraging the flexibility and orchestration capabilities of Kubernetes, we successfully deployed the factory service within the OSG Tiger Kubernetes cluster. The major benefits Kubernetes gives us is it streamlines the management and monitoring of the factory infrastructure, and improves fault tolerance through its resilient deployment strategies. Through this case study, we aim to share insights, challenges, and best practices encountered during the migration process. Our experience underscores the benefits of embracing containerization and Kubernetes orchestration for HEP computing infrastructure, paving the way for scalability and resilience in distributed computing environments.

Dost, Jeffrey Michael [UC, San Diego (main)]↗

Toward implementing autonomous adaptive data acquisition for scanning hyperspectral imaging of biological systems

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging area of research, primarily related to autonomous vehicles, scientific combinatorial discovery approaches in materials science and drug discovery, and iterative research loops of planning, experimentation, and analysis. However, autonomous approaches developed in these contexts are difficult to apply to high-dimensional mapping technologies, such as scanning hyperspectral imaging of biological systems, due to sample complexity and heterogeneity. We briefly cover the history of adaptive sampling algorithms and surrogate modeling in order to define autonomous adaptive data acquisition as an objective-based, flexible building block for future biological imaging experimentation driven by intelligent infrastructure. We subsequently summarize the recent implementations of autonomous adaptive data acquisition (AADA) for scanning hyperspectral imaging, assess how these address the difficulties of autonomous approaches in hyperspectral imaging, and highlight the AADA design variation from a goal-oriented perspective. Finally, we present a modular AADA architecture that embeds AADA-driven flexible building blocks to address the challenge of time resolution for high-dimensional scanning hyperspectral imaging of nonequilibrium dynamical systems. In our example research-driven experimental design case, we propose an AADA infrastructure for time-resolved, noninvasive, and label-free scanning hyperspectral imaging of living biological systems. This AADA infrastructure can accurately target the correct state of the system for experimental workflows that utilize subsequent expensive, high-information-content analytical techniques.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Used Nuclear Fuel Management Using the Next Generation System Analysis Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the National effort to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, encompassing the safe transportation, storage/staging, and/or eventual disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is DOE’s discrete-event, agent-based simulation tool designed to model the full life cycle of UNF from reactor discharge to final disposal. NGSAM supports the DOE Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition by enabling a detailed, scenario-based analysis of logistics, infrastructure, and shipping strategies. NGSAM replaces legacy models with a modern, flexible platform built on Repast Simphony and enhanced by the Process Analysis Tool. NGSAM simulates the movement and interaction of individual fuel assemblies with system components such as canisters, casks, railcars, and facilities. The model integrates with the Java Transportation Operations Model to plan and execute transportation scenarios, supporting both constrained and unconstrained resource allocation. Key features include customizable allocation and acceptance algorithms, detailed facility-level operations, and a Quick Edit tool for rapid scenario adjustments. NGSAM supports multimodal transportation modeling (e.g. rail, road, barge) and provides comprehensive cost, schedule, and infrastructure data. NGSAM utilizes data from sources such as DOE’s STANDARDS UNF database and DOE’s Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation, while also allowing user-defined inputs for scenario customization. NGSAM enables stakeholders to evaluate complex UNF management strategies, assess system performance under varying assumptions, and inform decision making for future infrastructure investments. Its modular architecture and integration with other Integrated Waste Management System tools make it a critical asset for planning the safe and efficient disposition of the Nation’s growing UNF inventory.

Craig, Brian [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

Integrating Spatial and Ethnographic Methods for Resilience Research: A Thick Mapping Approach for Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria left unprecedented impacts on Puerto Rican communities, leaving some without infrastructure services and unable to communicate with family for several months. Here, to understand the forms of community-level resilience that emerged while hard infrastructure systems took time recover, this article (1) abductively explores resilience as an emergent phenomenon of complex adaptive systems; (2) identifies subsequent forms of social capital, local adaptive capacities, and manifestations of quantifiable variables, such as infrastructure performance, in community experiences; and (3) demonstrates a framework to integrate disparate methodologies for resilience assessments via a multiplicity of mappings of space and place. We combine ethnographic and geospatial methods into an interactive GeoApp for analysis using participant-coded narratives and a series of geospatial indicators as a thick map. Thick mapping facilitates quantitative and qualitative data analysis at several scales, while enabling qualitative query of collected narratives. Results highlight local innovation, community bonding and bridging, and nuances in the role of public institutions as emergent elements of resilience. The thick map shows how top-down assessments can be augmented by thick data and how multiple framings can be anchored in the same system or place. These findings are important to inform and integrate community-oriented and technocentric solutions toward resilience-enhancing measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote operation of the DIII-D National Fusion Facility

Abstract Full remote scientific operation of the DIII-D National Fusion Facility is now possible through significant advances in the computer science hardware and software infrastructure made over the last decade. Capabilities around information visualization, data movement, and communication have all been enhanced. The level of capability deployed to remotely operate DIII-D required an infrastructure advancement over what had previously been achieved in the fusion community. The large quantity of real-time data that is automatically displayed on DIII-D’s control room screens can now be visualized by remote participants via web-based applications. New audio/video solutions using the VoIP and instant messaging application Discord have been implemented to mimic the dynamic and ad-hoc scientific conversations that are critical in successfully operating an experimental campaign. Discord’s ability for a user to rapidly move between audio channels, text with images, and share screens is a significant enhancement over traditional videoconferencing tools. In addition, multiple combinations of broadcast audio are made available via a web-based application to allow remote participants to simultaneously listen to general announcements/sounds while conducting their own specific conversations. Secure methodologies have been put into place to allow remote control of hardware including DIII-D’s plasma control system application. Secure methods also included the ability of the on-site team to closely coordinate their work with remote team members which has been enhanced through extensions to the wireless network and the use of tablet computers for audio/video/screen sharing. However, no amount of software can fully replace the need for ‘hands on hardware.’ This infrastructure was severely stress tested during the COVID-19 pandemic where occupancy of the DIII-D control room was restricted. Operational efficiency during the pandemic, measured in discharges per hour, remained high (3.8 ± 0.8) compared to values obtained pre-pandemic (3.7 ± 0.8).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Next generation experimental data access at NSLS-II

The NSLS-II network and computing infrastructure has been significantly updated recently. The re-IP process in 2020-2021 enabled the NSLS-II network to be routable to the rest of the BNL campus. Then, standardization of the operating systems and deployment procedures helped to deliver a consistent environment to workstations and servers used by all NSLS-II beamlines. In particular, the RedHat Enterprise Linux 8 was deployed to 700+ machines using the RedHat Satellite infrastructure management product, and all critical services (IOCs, databases, etc.) were migrated to the new OS. NFS users’ home directories are consistent across all of the machines, which eliminates the need for the individual configuration of the user environment on each host. The standard suite of software packages is available to the beamline staff and users, which includes the system packages (deployed via RPM) as well as the conda environments for data acquisition and analysis. Security measures were implemented to comply with the industry standards, which include multi-factor authentication (using Duo), secure screen lock for the beamline machines, and advanced access control to the experimental data that is stored in shared central storage available on all hosts. These major enhancements facilitated sharing the experimental data (currently for a number of selected beamlines, with a plan to extend it to the whole facility in the nearest future) with the users via an externally facing JupyterHub instance. The beamlines keep using the Bluesky data acquisition framework to orchestrate their experiments, and the new infrastructure enabled them to use a next-generation data access library called tiled.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ScienceSearch: Enabling Search through Automatic Metadata Generation

© 2018 IEEE. Scientific facilities are increasingly generating and handling large amounts of data from experiments and simulations. Next-generation scientific discoveries rely on insights derived from data, especially across domain boundaries. Search capabilities are critical to enable scientists to discover datasets of interest. However, scientific datasets often lack the signals or metadata required for effective searches. Thus, we need formalized methods and systems to automatically annotate scientific datasets from the data and its surrounding context. Additionally, a search infrastructure needs to account for the scale and rate of application data volumes. In this paper, we present ScienceSearch, a system infrastructure that uses machine learning techniques to capture and learn the knowledge, context, and surrounding artifacts from data to generate metadata and enable search. Our current implementation is focused on a dataset from the National Center for Electron Microscopy (NCEM), an electron microscopy facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory sponsored by the Department of Energy which supports hundreds of users and stores millions of micrographs. In this paper, we describe a) our search infrastructure and model, b) methods for generating metadata using machine learning techniques, and c) optimizations to improve search latency, and deployment on an HPC system. We demonstrate that ScienceSearch is capable of producing valid metadata for NCEM's dataset and providing low-latency good quality search results over a scientific dataset.

Rodrigo, Gonzalo P.↗

Simulation-Guided Decision-Making for Enhancing Energy Resilience in a Remote Alaskan Community

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events underscore the need to bolster the resilience of energy infrastructure in remote coastal communities exposed to climate hazards. In recent years, considerable effort has been made to harden the grid infrastructure of remote communities through investment in energy storage, advanced metering, renewable generation and energy-efficient loads. However, simulation-based studies are still needed to identify appropriate locations for investment and determine the adequacy of existing infrastructure in supporting new resources. Preparing the required models may often be challenging due to insufficient metering, disparate data sources and workforce limitations. This paper describes modeling efforts undertaken to represent, within a unified co-simulation platform: (a) the electric distribution network and (b) the thermal behavior of a community medical center, in the remote community of Cordova, Alaska. With the help of case-studies, it is shown how the developed simulation platform can help the local utility in making decisions regarding capital investment aimed at enhancing community resilience.

Microgrid, energy storage, resilience↗

Improving Resiliency in Planning MW-Scale Medium and Heavy Duty EV Charging Stations Considering TSCOTS Optimization

Electrification of heavy-duty (HD) vehicles marks an important milestone and technical challenge in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and the public grid. However, implementing EV charging at this scale will necessitate that traditional truck stops be updated with EV charging infrastructure that could represent 10's of MW in electricity consumption. Furthermore, as the transportation sector is represented as critical infrastructure, supporting resiliency considerations in EV charging infrastructure will be critical. This paper proposes an optimization-based approach for optimally designing a MW-scale microgrid charging network. This approach transforms conventional designed truck stops into a reliable HDEV charging stations capable of overnight slow charging and 30-minute to 1 hour fast charging. Using a mixed-integer linear program formulation blending capacity planning and reliability constraints, an optimal network configuration can be solved for a proposed EV charging station that includes photovoltaic and battery energy storage capabilities.

Ponce, Moises [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

Envisioning the Future Renewable and Resilient Energy Grids—A Power Grid Revolution Enabled by Renewables, Energy Storage, and Energy Electronics

Today’s power grids are facing tremendous challenges because of the ever-increasing power demand, system complexity, infrastructure cost, knowledge base, and policy and regulatory issues to achieve supply–demand power balance and resiliency with respect to more frequent extreme weather events and cyberattacks. It is particularly challenging when the transition toward 100% intermittent renewable energy sources is considered. Many countries are calling for building up more transmission and distribution lines to increase power delivery capacities. This article is an attempt to answer two urgent questions: Is more transmission and distribution infrastructure really needed to meet the increasing power demand? What kind of future grid infrastructure should we envision and build? This article attempts to answer these questions and proposes the concept of community-centric asynchronous renewable and resilient energy grids. By clearly differentiating the concepts of grid resilience and reliability, the importance of building resilient power electronics’ devices and robust system-level control algorithms to achieve 100% renewable energy integrated resilient grids is presented. To identify the shortcomings and propose advancements, power electronics’ technologies are categorized using the proposed concepts of natural source frequencies (NSf), energy storage, direct energy conversion/control and fault protection (DeCaFp), and high-efficiency energy consumption and buffering (heECaB) technology. The ability of networked microgrids to greatly reduce power outages and power system restoration time is demonstrated by leveraging robust decentralized and centralized control algorithms, identified through a comprehensive literature review. Future research areas are proposed to further enhance grid stability, controllability, cybersecurity, and protection against faults in the presence of 100% renewable sources by leveraging the advanced capabilities of NSf, DeCaFp, and heECaB devices and system-level control algorithms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

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