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Exploration of a Novel Technique for Waste Heat Recovery Through Molecular Dynamics: Influence of Wettability and Electric Field on Water and Water-Based Nanofluids

Most of the energy produced globally comes by way of a heat engine. The Carnot principle places a limit as to how thermodynamically efficient a heat engine can be. There is no heat engine that can be 100% thermodynamically efficient and as such a substantial proportion of all heat supplied to a heat engine is lost as waste heat. Waste heat therefore is a large energy source ready to be properly utilized. Herein, a novel approach for converting waste heat to electricity is discussed. It involves the use of the liquid to vapor phase change of a material dielectric (water) or electrolyte (nanofluid) in the embodiment of a capacitor for direct thermal to electrostatic energy conversion. While this method of waste heat recovery could potentially be added to the ever expanding portfolio of energy conversion techniques, a number of aspects must be addressed before it can be brought into practice. Water was seen as an ideal dielectric phase change material given its high relative permittivity ratio when in the liquid form as compared to its vapor form. However, given its short voltage holdoff time the phase change of water would need to occur rapidly. This brings up concerns of explosive boiling. Herein, molecular dynamics analysis into the explosive boiling behavior of thin water films gave more insight into how the interaction between the surface and liquid affected explosive boiling onset time. A Lennard-Jones potential with one interaction site and a Morse potential with three interaction sites between water and solid substrate were used. It was found generally that a stronger interaction between water film and substrate led to faster explosive boiling onset times but an increase in the number of interaction sites delayed explosive boiling, even at the same wettability (contact angle). Understanding changes in the density and enthalpy of vaporization of a liquid dielectric such as water in the presence of an electric field is of importance due to the electrostatic nature of the waste heat conversion method under consideration. Specifically, if both density and enthalpy of vaporization are increased, the thermodynamic efficiency of the waste heat conversion method under consideration is decreased. Electric field effects are explored herein via molecular dynamics using two water models, the TIP4P-Ew and SWM4-NDP. The SWM4-NDP model is polarizable while the TIP4P-Ew model is not, which allows for a determination of the importance of model polarizability (i.e. variation in water model dipole moment) on these two properties of water when subjected to an electric field. Herein it was found that both water models respond similarly in terms of density and vaporization enthalpy variance upon the introduction of an electric field. Comparison was also made to the pressure induced by the electric field (electrostriction pressure) by way of a density comparison and it was found that the predicted electrostriction pressure overestimates the pressure experienced by water. Water by itself has a high enthalpy of vaporization, which limits the efficiency of the newly proposed conversion method. Research both experimental and through simulation has shown that the vaporization enthalpy of nanofluids can be engineered via nanoparticle size and material selection. An avenue less explored is manipulating the enthalpy of vaporization by altering the interaction strength between the nanoparticles and the base fluid. In practice this could be achieved through the addition of coatings to the nanoparticles to alter their wettability to the base fluid. This was explored by using a Lennard-Jones potential and Morse potential to model the interaction between base fluid (water) and the nanoparticle. For nanoparticles 2nm in diameter and at weight percentages up to 6%, the change in vaporization enthalpy due to alterations of the interaction strength between nanoparticle and base fluid was not significant (less than a 1% difference) when compared to the effect of altering the weight percentage of nanoparticles in the nanofluid or introducing an electric field. However, the effect of wettability may still become important at other nanoparticle concentrations and sizes. In all, the studies presented here further the understanding of phase change and thermodynamic properties of water and water based nanofluids under an electrostatic field which will help inform the development of a novel approach to waste heat conversion. The reduction of waste heat will improve energy sustainability outlooks.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Disruption of electrostatic contacts in the HNH nuclease from a thermophilic Cas9 rewires allosteric motions and enhances high-temperature DNA cleavage

Allosteric signaling within multidomain proteins is a driver of communication between spatially distant functional sites. Understanding the mechanism of allosteric coupling in large multidomain proteins is the most promising route to achieving spatial and temporal control of the system. The recent explosion of CRISPR-Cas9 applications in molecular biology and medicine has created a need to understand how the atomic level protein dynamics of Cas9, which are the driving force of its allosteric crosstalk, influence its biophysical characteristics. In this study, we used a synergistic approach of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and computation to pinpoint an allosteric hotspot in the HNH domain of the thermostable GeoCas9. We show that mutation of K597 to alanine disrupts a salt-bridge network, which in turn alters the structure, the timescale of allosteric motions, and the thermostability of the GeoHNH domain. This homologous lysine-to-alanine mutation in the extensively studied mesophilic S. pyogenes Cas9 similarly alters the dynamics of the SpHNH domain. We have previously demonstrated that the alteration of allostery via mutations is a source for the specificity enhancement of SpCas9 (eSpCas9). Hence, this may also be true in GeoCas9.

Chemistry↗

Color Ultrafast Photography Study of a High-Current Discharge Initiated by Exploding a Short Wire in the Atmosphere

In this paper, we describe the ultrafast slit-scanning photography of light phenomena arising at the stage of the electrical breakdown in the atmosphere and in a channel initiated by a wire explosion. The characteristics and features of the photographic registration of the SFR-1 camera using color and spectrozonal negative aerial films sensitive in the visible and near infrared regions of the optical spectrum are presented. Using photograms in color, we were able to visualize small-scale inhomogeneities, a current-carrying channel and its “shell,” emissions of matter, and shock waves in the plasma. This technique made it possible to record a secondary shock wave in the plasma on the discharge axis during the explosion of short (length ≈15 mm) copper and nichrome wires with a diameter of 100–150 μm at a stored energy of ~100 J. At the moment of cumulation in the plasma, a “hot spot” with a minimum size of ~0.5 mm was formed on the discharge axis. It may be the source of narrow-beam coherent radiation with X-ray photon energies of 10–30 keV. The cumulation mechanism is discussed based on the regularities of the z-pinch phenomenon in a discharge initiated by a wire explosion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Constraining the progenitor companion of the nearby Type Ia SN 2011fe with a nebular spectrum at +981 d

We present an optical nebular spectrum of the nearby Type Ia supernova 2011fe, obtained 981 d after explosion. SN 2011fe exhibits little evolution since the +593 d optical spectrum, but there are several curious aspects in this new extremely late-time regime. We suggest that the persistence of the ~5800 Å feature is due to Na I D, and that a new emission feature at ~7300 Å may be [Ca II]. Also, we discuss whether the new emission feature at ~6400 Å might be [Fe I] or the high-velocity hydrogen predicted by Mazzali et al. The nebular feature at 5200 Å exhibits a linear velocity evolution of ~350 km s -1 per 100 d from at least +220 to +980 d, but the line's shape also changes in this time, suggesting that line blending contributes to the evolution. At ~1000 d after explosion, flux from the SN has declined to a point where contribution from a luminous secondary could be detected. In this work, we make the first observational tests for a post-impact remnant star and constrain its temperature and luminosity to T ≳ 104K and L ≲ 10 4 L⊙. Additionally, we do not see any evidence for narrow H α emission in our spectrum. We conclude that observations continue to strongly exclude many single-degenerate scenarios for SN 2011fe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Relating microstructure, temperature, and chemistry to explosive ignition and shock sensitivity

An analysis is put forth that relates explosive properties including microstructure, temperature, and chemistry to explosive ignition and sensitivity. Unlike approaches that focus only on elucidating mesoscopic mechanisms important to ignition, the present analysis seeks a methodology directly applicable to continuum explosive burn models. Because the Scaled Uniform Reactive Front (SURF) burn model has a microstructural basis, it is chosen as the starting point of the present analysis. To build upon the SURF framework, a literal translation is performed of the high-level conceptual notions for which SURF is based, to concrete ignition–combustion parameters, a statistical description of the microstructure, and other thermo-chemical data acquired by non-shock experiments. The analysis requires a void volume fraction distribution acquired from ultra-small angle neutron scattering (USANS). The shock response of PBX 9502 is used to illustrate the theory. While the analysis requires calibration to a shock experiment (the pop plot, for example), the results are a self-consistent set of realistic physical quantities that contribute to the shock initiation process including, initial temperature, chemical kinetics, a statistical description of the microstructure, and the hot spot size, spacing, and temperature. The utility of having a mesoscale based theory is that once the critical hot spot temperature, as a function of shock pressure, is known for a given explosive and initial porosity distribution, the entire set of meso- and macro-scale results, including the pop plot can be calculated for any other porosity. Thus, one can understand changes in sensitivity at different densities (void size distributions), relying only on the assumption that the hot spot temperature curve would not differ significantly if the morphology of the hots spots were similar. Another important utility of the present analysis is to address the question of the role of initial temperature on the observed shock sensitivity of PBX 9502 and other explosives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

THE OXYGEN FEATURES IN TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NATURE OF THERMONUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

The absorption feature O i λ 7773 is an important spectral indicator for type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) that can be used to trace the unburned material in outer layers of the exploding white dwarf (WD). In this work, we use a large sample of SNe Ia to examine this absorption at early phases (i.e., 13 day ≲ t ≲ 7 day) and make comparisons with the absorption features of Si ii λ 6355 and the Ca ii near-infrared triplet. We show that for a subgroup of spectroscopically normal SNe with normal photospheric velocities (i.e., v {sub si} ≲ 12,500 km s{sup 1} at optical maximum), the line strength of the high velocity feature (HVF) of O i is inversely correlated with that of Si ii (or Ca ii), and this feature also shows a negative correlation with the luminosity of SNe Ia. This finding, together with other features we find for the O i HVF, reveal that for this subgroup of SNe Ia, explosive oxygen burning occurs in the outermost layer of the SN. Differences in the oxygen burning could lead to the observed diversity, which is in remarkable agreement with the popular delayed-detonation model of Chandrasekhar mass WDs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A comparison of two- and three-dimensional neutrino-hydrodynamics simulations of core-collapse supernovae

We present numerical results on two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic core-collapse simulations of an 11.2 M {sub ☉} star. By changing numerical resolutions and seed perturbations systematically, we study how the postbounce dynamics are different in 2D and 3D. The calculations were performed with an energy-dependent treatment of the neutrino transport based on the isotropic diffusion source approximation scheme, which we have updated to achieve a very high computational efficiency. All of the computed models in this work, including nine 3D models and fifteen 2D models, exhibit the revival of the stalled bounce shock, leading to the possibility of explosion. All of them are driven by the neutrino-heating mechanism, which is fostered by neutrino-driven convection and the standing-accretion-shock instability. Reflecting the stochastic nature of multi-dimensional (multi-D) neutrino-driven explosions, the blast morphology changes from model to model. However, we find that the final fate of the multi-D models, whether an explosion is obtained or not, is little affected by the explosion stochasticity. In agreement with some previous studies, higher numerical resolutions lead to slower onset of the shock revival in both 2D and 3D. Based on the self-consistent supernova models leading to the possibility of explosions, our results systematically show that the revived shock expands more energetically in 2D than in 3D.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

METAMORPHOSIS OF SN 2014C: DELAYED INTERACTION BETWEEN A HYDROGEN POOR CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVA AND A NEARBY CIRCUMSTELLAR SHELL

We present optical observations of supernova SN 2014C, which underwent an unprecedented slow metamorphosis from H-poor type Ib to H-rich type IIn over the course of one year. The observed spectroscopic evolution is consistent with the supernova having exploded in a cavity before encountering a massive shell of the progenitor star’s stripped hydrogen envelope. Possible origins for the circumstellar shell include a brief Wolf–Rayet fast wind phase that overtook a slower red supergiant wind, eruptive ejection, or confinement of circumstellar material by external influences of neighboring stars. An extended high velocity Hα absorption feature seen in near-maximum light spectra implies that the progenitor star was not completely stripped of hydrogen at the time of core collapse. Archival pre-explosion Subaru Telescope Suprime-Cam and Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 images of the region obtained in 2009 show a coincident source that is most likely a compact massive star cluster in NGC 7331 that hosted the progenitor system. By comparing the emission properties of the source with stellar population models that incorporate interacting binary stars we estimate the age of the host cluster to be 30–300 Myr, and favor ages closer to 30 Myr in light of relatively strong Hα emission. SN 2014C is the best observed member of a class of core-collapse supernovae that fill the gap between events that interact strongly with dense, nearby environments immediately after explosion and those that never show signs of interaction. Better understanding of the frequency and nature of this intermediate population can contribute valuable information about the poorly understood final stages of stellar evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multidimensional simulations of core-collapse supernovae and

Core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), the culmination of massive stellar evolution, are the principle actors in the story of our elemental origins. Our understanding of these events, while still incomplete, centers around a neutrino-driven central engine which is highly hydrodynamically-unstable. Simulations of increasing sophistication show a shock that stalls for hundreds of milliseconds before reviving. Though brought back to life by neutrino heating, the development of the supernova explosion is inextricably linked to three dimensional fluid flows. Regrettably, much of our understanding of the nucleosynthesis that occurs in these explosions, and their impact on galactic chemical evolution, is based on spherically symmetric simulations with parameterized explosions, ignoring much that has been learned about the central engine of these supernovae over the past two decades. Here in this paper we discuss recent results from two-dimensional CCSN simulations using our CHIMERA code, as well as ongoing three-dimensional simulations, and discuss how the multidimensional character of the explosions directly impacts the nucleosynthesis and other observables of core-collapse supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Explosive-actuated valve design concept that eliminates blow-by

A method of evaluating the normally open normally closed, explosive actuated valves that were selected for use in the trajectory correction propulsion subsystem of the Thermoelectric Outer Planet Spacecraft (TOPS) program is presented. The design philosophy which determined the requirements for highly reliable valves that could provide the performance capability during long duration (10 year) missions to the outer planets is discussed. The techniques that were used to fabricate the valves and manifold ten valves into an assembly with the capability of five propellant-flow initiation/isolation sequences are described. The test program, which was conducted to verify valve design requirements, is outlined and the more significant results are shown.

Hagler, R., Jr.↗

A model of the pre-Sedov expansion phase of supernova remnant-ambient plasma coupling and X-ray emission from SN 1987A

This paper examines the mechanism responsible for coupling supernova (SN) remnant to the ambient medium during the pre-Sedov or the so-called free expansion phase, immediately following the progenitor explosion. A theory is developed for the interaction of an SN piston with the ambient medium during the pre-Sedov phase. The possibility of X-ray production by the high-speed portion of the piston during this phase is investigated. The relevant observations of high-energy emissions from the SN 1987A, including the X-ray spectrum, luminosity, and temporal development, are considered. It is shown that the commonly assumed snowplow model for SNR evolution is valid, because of the action of a variety of collisionless two-stream instabilities that permit the coupling of the ambient plasma with SNR.

Spicer, D. S.↗

Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard

The small fraction of the asteroids with Earth-crossing or Earth-approaching orbits is of special interest to us because many will eventually impact our planet. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics, although we have little information on the possible variability of this flux over time. The effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts (such as the KT impactor 65 million years ago), nuclear explosive testing, and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile roughly 15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near one million megatons energy. The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. These include the relative risk of different impact scenarios and the associated costs and probability of success of countermeasures. It is generally agreed that the first step is to survey and catalogue the thousand-or-so Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and we review the status of the Spaceguard NEA Survey. We compare the efficiency of various ground and space-based approaches and consider the challenges of international coordination and the problems and opportunities associated with communicating the results with the press and the public. It is also important to reflect on how the impact hazard might be dealt with by both national governments and international decision-making bodies, and to anticipate ways of mitigating the danger if a NEA were located on an apparent Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.

Morrison, David↗

Pyroshock Environments Characterized for Spacecraft Missions

Pyrotechnic shock, or pyroshock, is the transient response of a structure to loading induced by the ignition of pyrotechnic (explosive or propellant activated) devices. These devices are typically used to separate structural systems (e.g., separate a spacecraft from a launch vehicle) and deploy appendages (e.g., solar panels). Pyroshocks are characterized by high peak acceleration, high-frequency content, and short duration. Because of their high acceleration and high-frequency, pyroshocks can cause spaceflight hardware to fail. Verifying by test that spaceflight hardware can withstand the anticipated shock environment is considered essential to mission success. The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 spacecraft for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth is scheduled to be launched on an Atlas IIAS vehicle in 1999, and the NASA Lewis Research Center is the launch vehicle integrator for this NASA Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft. The EOS spacecraft was subjected to numerous ground shock tests to verify that its scientific instruments and avionics components will withstand the shock-induced vibration produced when the spacecraft separates from the launch vehicle. Shock test data from these tests represent the third largest available pyroshock database in the United States. Future spacecraft missions will directly benefit from the knowledge gained from these tests. The payload separation system used for EOS is a new system that operates by firing six separation nuts. This system was tested to verify its functional operation and to characterize the resulting shock levels. The launch vehicle contractor (Lockheed Martin Astronautics) and spacecraft contractor (Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space) completed 16 separation test firings. This resulted in an unusually large amount of pyroshock data. Typically, only one or two pyroshock test firings are performed for a spacecraft mission. Because of the size of this separation system shock database, engineers were able to perform unique statistical analyses to characterize the distribution of the test data. For example, it was proven that the shock data follow a lognormal distribution, a concept often assumed but rarely proven. The test-to-test repeatability of the shock source level was analyzed, and the effects of various test configurations and separation nut production lots were examined and quantified. Engineers investigated the change in shock level as the shock traveled from the spacecraft separation interface to the avionics components of the upper stage and analyzed the effects of the structural fidelity (simulator versus real) of the components and their weight on vibrational response. In addition, the shock attenuation with distance and across joints was quantified and compared with concepts originally generated in 1970, and the effects of separation nut preload and firing sequences effects were examined. Because of this EOS shock testing and the analyses performed at NASA Lewis, a significant amount of new information on pyroshock and its characteristics is now available to the aerospace industry. We hope that this information will help future spacecraft test planners to perform better and cheaper spacecraft separation shock tests and to better understand their test data.

Hughes, William O.↗

Chemical Fractionation is not a Constant: Revisiting Bomb Vapor Chemistry

The debris produced by a nuclear explosion forms a hazard to response, can serve as a record used to interpret the event, and may persist in the environment necessitating long term management. Hence, understanding the radiochemical inventory of nuclear debris remains an important area of study, particularly the behavior and resulting distribution of actinides and fission products. Despite formation in a high energy environment, it has been recognized for decades that the chemical and isotopic composition of debris rarely, if ever, captures a homogenized blend of the bomb products. Instead, during cooling and debris formation, a variety of chemical processes cause separation of the different constituents. This process of chemical fractionation creates debris with a variety of different radionuclide inventories. Here we provide an overdue re-examination of our historic basis for understanding chemical fractionation in nuclear explosions through the context of new characterization of a large set of historical nuclear test data. Finally, we then discuss the implications of our findings for advancing models of radionuclide distribution and postdetonation chemical fractionation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Mechanism of Nonequilibrium Formation of Novel Interface Structures in Explosive Welding

Novel structures are commonly observed in explosive welding products. This paper presents the nonequilibrium mechanism of the welding interface. A theoretical model was established first to deduce the motion equation of the rapid accelerated flyer plate. Numerical simulations of the welding interface were carried out with the smooth particle hydrodynamic method. Both the theoretical and numerical results were compared with experimental phenomena and showed that under the very rapid application of an impact load usually associated with high-strength plastic deformation, a significant strain rate, and temperature rise, the material volumes of the welding interface are in the viscoelastic state and prone to rotation, detrusion, and dilatation. In addition, the extreme values from the nonequilibrium development of the interface structure are a consequence of the competition between the loading and unloading stress waves during the explosive welding process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fuel-Coolant Interaction Results for High Energy In-Pile LWR Fuels Experiments

Fuel-coolant interaction (FCI) has long been a subject of interest in severe-accident reactor safety applications. Significant chemical interaction also frequently results at the high temperature associated with these events in a water environment. Historical rapid, high energy transient irradiation test results are reviewed for experiments performed in transient experimental reactors in Idaho. Though such events are not credible for any deployed nuclear reactor technology, the pressure waves produced by FCI on surrounding containment structures are of importance to advanced light water reactor designs and for transient experiment design considerations. A brief introduction to steam explosion and related studies is provided in the context of these experiments. Extensive reactivity initiated accident testing programs were carried out in the Transient REActor Test (TREAT) facility, the Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) facility, and the Power Burst Facility (PBF) from the 1960’s through the late 1970’s. A variety of fuel forms including waterlogged rods were tested in capsules containing water coolant at standard temperature pressure. A few tests were performed at high pressure and temperature in the water loop of PBF. In many of these experiments, energy deposition was high enough to greatly exceed melting temperatures of the fuel, resulting in some fraction of the fuel being dispersed into the coolant. A purpose of many of these tests was to determine the nuclear-to-mechanical energy conversion ratio as well as the extent of metal-water reaction. Relevant data collected from these tests included transient energy deposition, pressure response of the coolant, water column velocity, total hydrogen generation, and resulting particle size distributions and particle characterization. In this paper, the mechanical configuration of each experiment facility is reviewed and discussed relative to the measured responses. The empirical results for source pressure and extent of metal-water reaction are presented in the context of the experimental conditions. The results of these experiments provide a unique understanding for behavior of fuel under severe accident conditions in a reactor environment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Induction Melter Processing Alternatives for High Level Radioactive Wastes – 26198

This work investigates the potential to vitrify nuclear fuel directly, as well as the vitrification potential associated with experimental dissolver solutions. Greater understanding of the exothermicity is needed to quantify processing risk, especially with respect to potential phase changes and associated explosion hazards present in some systems. Thermal analysis was carried out on various simulants to elucidate the exothermic reaction potential from solid metal dissolution in glass and from the drying of alternative process dissolver solutions. Results from experimental testing of simulants to demonstrate vitrification potential and compatibility indicate that alternative dissolver flowsheets suppress the heat released during processing and that common silicate- and phosphate- based glass systems are potential candidates for direct vitrification. Direct vitrification (conversion) of fuel simulants was assessed using laboratory scale glass melts to obtain qualitative information on dissolution rates and waste loadings. Initial tests were successful to dissolve and incorporate metal directly into glass, although the kinetics and limits of dissolution and incorporation into glass are not fully understood.

Amoroso, Jake [Savannah River National Laboratory ↗

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

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