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Event-driven simulation in SELMON: An overview of EDSE

EDSE (event-driven simulation engine), a model-based event-driven simulator implemented for SELMON, a tool for sensor selection and anomaly detection in real-time monitoring is described. The simulator is used in conjunction with a causal model to predict future behavior of the model from observed data. The behavior of the causal model is interpreted as equivalent to the behavior of the physical system being modeled. An overview of the functionality of the simulator and the model-based event-driven simulation paradigm on which it is based is provided. Included are high-level descriptions of the following key properties: event consumption and event creation, iterative simulation, synchronization and filtering of monitoring data from the physical system. Finally, how EDSE stands with respect to the relevant open issues of discrete-event and model-based simulation is discussed.

Rouquette, Nicolas F.↗

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Energetic solar electrons in the interplanetary medium

Results are given of ISEE-3 measurements of energetic solar electrons extending down to 2 keV energy. Such measurements have provided a new perspective on energetic solar electrons in the interplanetary medium. Impulsive solar electron events are observed, on the average, several times a day near solar maximum, with about 40 percent detected only below about 15 keV. The electron energy spectra have a nearly power-law shape extending smoothly down to 2 keV, indicating that the origin of these events is high in the corona. In large solar flares which accelerate electrons and ions to relativistic energies, the electron spectrum appears to be modified by a second acceleration which results in a double power-law shape above about 10 keV with a break near 100 keV and flattening from about 10-100 keV. Solar type-III radio bursts are produced by the escaping 2-100 keV electrons through a beam-plasma instability.

Lin, R. P.↗

Gamma-Ray Urgent Archiver for Novel Opportunities (GUANO): Swift/BAT Event Data Dumps on Demand to Enable Sensitive Subthreshold GRB Searches

We introduce a new capability of the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory to provide event-level data from the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on demand in response to transients detected by other instruments. We show that the availability of these data can effectively increase the rate of detections and arcminute localizations of gamma-ray bursts (GRB) like GRB 170817 by >400%. We describe an autonomous spacecraft-commanding pipeline purpose built to enable this science; to our knowledge, this is the first fully autonomous extremely low-latency commanding of a space telescope for scientific purposes. This pipeline has been successfully run in its complete form since 2020 January, and has resulted in the recovery of BAT event data for >800 externally triggered events to date (gravitational waves, GWs; neutrinos; GRBs triggered by other facilities; fast radio bursts; and very high-energy detections), now running with a success rate of ∼90%. We exemplify the utility of this new capability by using the resultant data to (1) set the most sensitive upper limits on prompt 1 s duration short GRB-like emission within ±15 s around the unmodeled GW burst candidate S200114f, and (2) provide an arcminute localization for short GRB 200325A and other bursts. We also show that using data from GUANO to localize GRBs discovered by other instruments, we can increase the net rate of arcminute-localized GRBs by 10%–20% per year. Along with the scientific yield of more sensitive searches for subthreshold GRBs, the new capabilities designed for this project will serve as the foundation for further automation and rapid target of opportunity capabilities for the Swift mission, and have implications for the design of future rapid-response space telescopes.

Aaron Tohuvavohu↗

Characteristics of cosmic X-ray bursts observed with the OGO-5 satellite

Observations of 11 cosmic X-ray bursts made with the solar X-ray spectrometer aboard OGO 5 are presented. Their identification as cosmic events is based on good time coincidence with observations of cosmic gamma-ray bursts reported in the literature. The OGO-5 experiment is most sensitive to cosmic X-ray sources located in the sunward hemisphere. When this condition was satisfied and the OGO-5 experiment was operating normally, almost every cosmic gamma-ray burst reported by other observers was detected at X-ray energies of at least 32 keV. In three events the spectrum was observed down to about 10 keV. Two intense events were observed with 0.288-s time resolution, and large time variations were observed to occur in times not exceeding 0.3 s. Evidence is found that most cosmic gamma-ray bursts have photon spectra extending down to about 10 keV. The origin of these cosmic events in processes similar to those believed to occur in solar flares is briefly examined.

Kane, S. R.↗

BSE versus StarTrack: Implementations of new wind, remnant-formation, and natal-kick schemes in NBODY7 and their astrophysical consequences

As a result of their formation via massive single and binary stellar evolution, the masses of stellar-remnant black holes (BH) are subjects of great interest in this era of gravitational-wave detection from binary black hole (BBH) and binary neutron star merger events. In this work, we present new developments in the stellar-remnant formation and related schemes of the current N-body evolution program NBODY7. We demonstrate that the newly implemented stellar-wind and remnant-formation schemes in the stellar-evolutionary sector or BSE of the NBODY7 code, such as the “rapid” and the “delayed” supernova (SN) schemes along with an implementation of pulsational-pair-instability and pair-instability supernova (PPSN/PSN), now produce neutron star (NS) and BH masses that agree nearly perfectly, over large ranges of zero-age-main-sequence (ZAMS) mass and metallicity, with those from the widely recognised StarTrack population-synthesis program. We also demonstrate the new, recipe-based implementations of various widely debated mechanisms of natal kicks on NSs and BHs, such as “convection-asymmetry-driven”, “collapse-asymmetry-driven”, and “neutrino-emission-driven” kicks, in addition to a fully consistent implementation of the standard, fallback-dependent, momentum-conserving natal kick. All the above newly implemented schemes are also shared with the standalone versions of SSE and BSE. Furthermore, all these demonstrations are performed with both the updated standalone BSE and the updated NBODY7/BSE. When convolved with stellar and primordial-binary populations as observed in young massive clusters, such remnant-formation and natal-kick mechanisms crucially determine the accumulated number, mass, and mass distribution of the BHs retained in young massive, open, and globular clusters (GCs); these BHs would eventually become available for long-term dynamical processing. Among other conclusions, we find that although the newer, delayed SN remnant formation model gives birth to the largest number (mass) of BHs, the older remnant-formation schemes cause the largest number (mass) of BHs to survive in clusters, when incorporating SN material fallback onto the BHs. The SN material fallback also causes the convection-asymmetry-driven SN kick to effectively retain similar numbers and masses of BHs in clusters as for the standard, momentum-conserving kick. The collapse-asymmetry-driven SN kick would cause nearly all BHs to be retained in clusters irrespective of their mass, remnant-formation model, and metallicity, whereas the inference of a large population of BHs in GCs would potentially rule out the neutrino-driven SN kick mechanism. Pre-SN mergers of massive primordial binaries would potentially cause BH masses to deviate from the theoretical, single-star ZAMS to mass-remnant mass relation unless a substantial of the total merging stellar mass of up to ≈40% is lost during a merger process. In particular, such mergers, at low metallicities, have the potential to produce low-spinning BHs within the PSN mass gap that can be retained in a stellar cluster and be available for subsequent dynamical interactions. As recent studies indicate, the new remnant-formation modelling reassures us that young massive and open clusters would potentially contribute to the dynamical BBH merger detection rate to a similar extent as their more massive GC counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The FNAS Gamma Ray Observatory

Highly stressed and nonpotential magnetic fields in solar active region are believed to be the site and source of M or X class flares which release as much as 10(exp 32) ergs in a periods of 10 to 1000 s with intense emission detected over most of the electromagnetic spectrum. Such M or X class flares are the most likely gamma-ray emission candidates since sheared magnetic field is the means of energy storage for flare events. We have studied the correlation between 'nonpotentiality' parameters such as 'shear angle' and maximum magnetic field strength with the occurrences gamma-ray events. Also the angle of deviation of the magnetic field from the line of sight was studied since the bremsstrahlung gamma-ray beam produced by relativistic ions and electrons is highly directional in the forward direction and required non-vertical field-lines for the detection of the disk-center events.

Emslie, A. Gordon↗

Gamma-ray burst constraints on the galactic frequency of extra-solar Oort clouds

With the strong CGRO/BATSE evidence that most gamma-ray bursts do not come from galactic neutron stars, models involving the accretion of a comet onto a neutron star (NS) no longer appear to be strong contenders for explaining the majority of bursts. If this is the case, then it is worth asking whether the lack of an observed galactic gamma-ray burst population provides a useful constraint on the number of comets and comet clouds in the galaxy. Owing to the previously unrecognized structural weakness of cometary nuclei, we find the capture cross sections for comet-NS events to be much higher than previously published estimates, with tidal breakup at distances R(sub b) approximately equals to 4 x 10(exp 10) cm from the NS. As a result, impacts of comets onto field NS's penetrating the Oort Clouds of other stars are found to dominate all other galactic NS-comet capture rates by a factor of 100. This in turn predicts that if comet clouds are common, there should be a significant population of repeater sources with (1) a galactic distribution, (2) space-correlated repetition, and (3) a wide range of peak luminosities and luminosity time histories. If all main sequences stars have Oort Clouds like our own, we predict approximately 4000 such repeater sources in the Milky Way at any time, each repeating on timescales of months to years. Based on estimates of the sensitivity of the CGRO/BATSE instrument and assuming isotropic gamma-ray beaming from such events, we estimate that a population of approximately 20-200 of these galactic NS-Oort Cloud gamma-ray repeater sources should be detectable by CGRO. In addition, if giant planet formation is common in the galaxy, we estimate that the accretion of isolated comets injected to the interstellar medium by giant planet formation should produce an additional source of galactic, nonrepeating events. Comparing these estimates to the three to four soft gamma-ray repeater sources detected by BATSE, one is forced to conclude that (1) comet impacts on NS's are inefficient at producing gamma-rays; or (2) the gamma-rays from such events are highly beamed; or (3) the fraction of stars in the galaxy with Oort Cloud like our own is not higher than a few percent.

Shull, J. Michael↗

Analytical Assessment of a Gross Leakage Event Within the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS)

Results of the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS) gross leakage analysis are presented for evaluating total leakage flowrates and volume discharge caused by a gross leakage event (i.e. open boundary condition). A Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer and Fluid Integrator (SINDA/FLUINT) thermal hydraulic mathematical model (THMM) representing the Node 2 IATCS was developed to simulate system performance under steady-state nominal conditions as well as the transient flow effects resulting from an open line exposed to ambient. The objective of the analysis was to determine the adequacy of the leak detection software in limiting the quantity of fluid lost during a gross leakage event to within an acceptable level.

Holt, James M.↗

Analytical Assessment of a Gross Leakage Event Within the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS)

Results of the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS) gross leakage analysis are presented for evaluating total leakage flow rates and volume discharge caused by a gross leakage event (i.e. open boundary condition). A Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer and Fluid Integrator (SINDA85/FLUINT) thermal hydraulic mathematical model (THMM) representing the Node 2 IATCS was developed to simulate system performance under steady-state nominal conditions as well as the transient flow effect resulting from an open line exposed to ambient. The objective of the analysis was to determine the adequacy of the leak detection software in limiting the quantity of fluid lost during a gross leakage event to within an acceptable level.

Holt, James M.↗

Material around the Centaur (2060) Chiron from the 2018 November 28 UT Stellar Occultation

A stellar occultation of Gaia DR3 2646598228351156352 by the Centaur (2060) Chiron was observed from the South African Astronomical Observatory on 2018 November 28 UT. Here we present a positive detection of material surrounding Chiron from the 74-inch telescope for this event. Additionally, a global atmosphere is ruled out at the tens of microbars level for several possible atmospheric compositions. There are multiple 3σ drops in the 74-inch light curve: three during immersion and two during emersion. Occulting material is located between 242 and 270 km from the center of the nucleus in the sky plane. Assuming the ring-plane orientation proposed for Chiron from the 2011 occultation, the flux drops are located at 352, 344, and 316 km (immersion) and 357 and 364 km (emersion) from the center, with normal optical depths of 0.26, 0.36, and 0.22 (immersion) and 0.26 and 0.18 (emersion) and equivalent widths between 0.7 and 1.3 km. This detection is similar to the previously proposed two-ring system and is located within the error bars of that ring-pole plane; however, the normal optical depths are less than half of the previous values, and three features are detected on immersion. These results suggest that the properties of the surrounding material have evolved between the 2011, 2018, and 2022 observations.

Amanda A. Sickafoose↗

On the Coronal Mass Ejection Detection Rate during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's white light coronagraphs have observed more than25,000 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 1996 January to the end of 2015 July. This period of time covers almost two solar cycles (23 and 24). The basic attributes of CMEs, reported in the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) catalog, during these solar cycles were statistically analyzed. The question of the CME detection rate and its connection to the solar cycles was considered in detail. Based on the properties and detection rate, CMEs can be divided into two categories: regular and specific events. The regular events are pronounced and follow the pattern of sunspot number. On the other hand, the special events are poorer and more correlated with the general conditions of heliosphere and corona. Nevertheless, both groups of CMEs are the result of the same physical phenomenon, viz. release of magnetic energy from closed field regions. It was demonstrated that the enhanced CME rate, since the solar cycle 23 polar-field reversal, is due to a significant decrease of total(magnetic and plasma) heliospheric pressure as well as the changed magnetic pattern of solar corona. CMEs expel free magnetic energy and helicity from the Sun; therefore, they are related to complex solar magnetic field structure. It is also worth emphasizing that the CMEs listed in the SOHO/LASCO catalog are real ejections (not false identification). Their detection rate reflects the global evolution of the magnetic field on the Sun, and not only changes in the magnetic structures associated with sunspots.

Michalek, Grzegorz↗

Spacecraft-Doppler gravity-wave detection. II - Results

A description is presented of the results of experiments conducted to detect very-low-frequency (VLF)-band gravitational radiation. The experiments are based on Doppler tracking of the Voyager I spacecraft. There were basically two kinds of experiments performed. The first was concerned with the detection of solitary bursts of gravitational radiation such as might emanate from a single violent astrophysical event. There were no positive results of the search for such burst events at a level of 3 x 10 to the -14th, nearly two orders of magnitude away from the required sensitivity. The second kind of experiment performed was related to an attempt to detect the isotropic background of cosmic gravitational radiation. The negative results fail by a little over an order of magnitude to limit radiation below the existing limits due to cosmic evolution. In summary, there was no detection of gravitational radiation at an amplitude of 3 x 10 to the -14th for VLF waves of frequency around 0.001 Hz.

Hellings, R. W.↗

A dark siren measurement of the Hubble constant using gravitational wave events from the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs and DELVE

The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant H_0 via the distance–redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one possibility is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic source redshift. Here we presented H_0 measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data: GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo. The combination of the H_0 posterior from GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to |$H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68 per cent confidence interval (CI) by 7 per cent over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the addition of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision of cosmological measurements. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, without the inclusion of GW170817, we determine a measurement of |$H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Equation of state constraints from multi-messenger observations of neutron star mergers

The very first detection of gravitational waves from a neutron star binary merger, GW170817, exceeded all expectations. The event was relatively nearby, which may point to a relatively high merger rate. It was possible to extract finite-size effects from the gravitational-wave signal, which constrains the nuclear equation of state. Also, an electromagnetic counterpart was detected at many wavebands from radio to gamma rays marking the begin of a new multi-messenger era involving gravitational waves. We describe how multi-messenger observations of GW170817 are employed to constrain the nuclear equation of state. Combining the information from the optical emission and the mass measurement through gravitational waves leads to a lower limit on neutron star radii. According to this conservative analysis, which employs a minimum set of assumptions, the radii of neutron stars with typical masses should be larger than about 10.7 km. This implies a lower limit on the tidal deformability of about 210, while much stronger lower bounds are not supported by the data of GW170817. The multi-messenger interpretation of GW170817 rules out very soft nuclear matter and complements the upper bounds on NS radii which are derived from the measurement of finite-size effects during the pre-merger phase. We highlight the future potential of multi-messenger observations and of GW measurements of the postmerger phase for constraining the nuclear equation of state. Finally, we propose an observing strategy to maximize the scientific yield of future multi-messenger observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibration and Timing Performance of the Light Detection System in the ICARUS Detector

ICARUS is the largest Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) in operation and serves as the Far Detector of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab. It aims to investigate the possible existence of sterile neutrinos with $\Delta m^2 \approx \SI{1}{eV^2}$ using the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and explore physics beyond the Standard Model with the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. The ICARUS light detection system, comprising 360 TPB-coated large-area Photo-Multiplier Tubes (PMTs), is crucial for triggering and event reconstruction. Due to its shallow installation, the detector is exposed to a high flux of cosmic rays, necessitating precise timing to reject background events and align neutrino interactions with the beam time profile. This talk will detail the timing inter-calibration procedures for the ICARUS light detection system, which achieve sub-nanosecond resolution. Additionally, the performance of the system in reconstructing the timing of neutrino interactions from the BNB and NuMI beams will be discussed. The results highlight the effectiveness of the ICARUS light detection system in enhancing the detector's capability for precise and reliable neutrino selection.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Calibration and Timing Performance of the Light Detection System in the ICARUS Detector

ICARUS is the largest Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) in operation and serves as the Far Detector of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab. It aims to investigate the possible existence of sterile neutrinos with $\Delta m^2 \approx 1 \,\mathrm{eV^2}$ using the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and explore physics beyond the Standard Model with the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. The ICARUS light detection system, comprising 360 TPB-coated large-area Photo-Multiplier Tubes (PMTs), is crucial for triggering and event reconstruction. Due to its shallow installation, the detector is exposed to a high flux of cosmic rays, necessitating precise timing to reject background events and align neutrino interactions with the beam time profile. This talk will detail the timing inter-calibration procedures for the ICARUS light detection system, which achieve sub-nanosecond resolution. Additionally, the performance of the system in reconstructing the timing of neutrino interactions from the BNB and NuMI beams will be discussed. The results highlight the effectiveness of the ICARUS light detection system in enhancing the detector's capability for precise and reliable neutrino selection.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High Velocity Absorption during Eta Car B's Periastron Passage

Eta Car is one of the most luminous massive stars in the Galaxy, with repeated eruptions with a 5.5 year periodicity. These events are caused by the periastron passage of a massive companion in an eccentric orbit. We report the VLT/CRIRES detection of a strong high-velocity, (<1900 km/s) , broad absorption wing in He I at 10833 A during the 2009.0 periastron passage. Previous observations during the 2003.5 event have shown evidence of such high-velocity absorption in the He I 10833 transition, allowing us to conclude that the high-velocity gas is crossing the line-of-sight toward Eta Car over a time period of approximately 2 months. Our analysis of HST/STlS archival data with observations of high velocity absorption in the ultraviolet Si IV and C IV resonance lines, confirm the presence of a high-velocity material during the spectroscopic low state. The observations provide direct detection of high-velocity material flowing from the wind-wind collision zone around the binary system, and we discuss the implications of the presence of high-velocity gas in Eta Car during periastron

Nielsen, Krister E.↗

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