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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Final Project Report (Oct 2014-Dec 2017): Zeolite Membranes for Krypton/Xenon Separation from Spent Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Off-Gas

The overall focus of this project is to develop and understand SAPO-34 zeolitic membranes that can separate mixtures of radioisotope krypton-85 and xenon released as off-gases during used nuclear fuel recycling. The primary advantage of separating 85 Kr from Xe is to reduce the volume of radioactive waste for storage. The second advantage is the revenue generated from the sale of high-purity Xe. Zeolite membranes are attractive because of their much lower energy requirements relative to cryogenic distillation, and their high resistance to radiation degradation. We report the detailed study of silicoaluminophosphate zeolite SAPO-34 materials and membranes for this application, due to hypothesized favorable molecular sieving properties. In the 3-year Mission Support project, we developed a novel, high-performance, low-energy intensity, lower-cost zeolite membrane process for Kr/Xe separation during SNF processing; and investigated the underlying molecular adsorption and transport processes in both ‘idealized’ and ‘realistic’ operating conditions to develop reliable synthesis-structure-property relationships for such membranes. Adsorption and diffusion measurements on SAPO-34 crystals indicate their potential for use in Kr-Xe separation membranes, but also highlight competing effects of adsorption and diffusion selectivity. SAPO-34 membranes synthesized on α-alumina substrates via steam-assisted conversion seeding and hydrothermal growth are characterized in detail, with Kr permeances 26 GPU and ideal Kr/Xe selectivities >20 at 298 K after thickness reduction. Post-synthesis cation exchange shows large (>50%) increases in selectivity at ambient or slight sub-ambient conditions. In addition, we confirm that SAPO-34 membrane is stable under radiation exposure and the impact of radiation exposure on membrane performance would not be substantial. We also successfully synthesized hollow-fiber SAPO-34 membranes with the same performance levels as the disk-type and tubular membranes. This important development will allow a very compact and low-cost Kr/Xe separation system. Finally, a detailed process calculation for techno-economic analysis was performed by integrating Maxwell-Stefan model into cross-flow membrane system, in order to estimate the required number of membrane stages and the total cost.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

LOWERING THE LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY OF A CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER TOWER WITH A SUPERCRITICAL CARBON DIOXIDE POWER CYCLE

In order to maintain viability as a future power-generating technology, concentrating solar power (CSP) must reduce its levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The cost of CSP is assessed with the System Advisor Model (SAM) from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The performance of an integrally geared compressor-expander recuperated recompression cycle with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) as the working fluid is modeled. A comparison of the cycle model to the integrated SAM cycle performance is made. The cycle model incorporates innovative cycle control methods to improve the range of efficiency, including inventory control. The SAM model is modified to accommodate the predicted cycle performance. The ultimate goal of minimizing the LCOE is targeted through multiple approaches, including the cost of the power block, the impact of system scale, the sizing of the thermal system relative to the power block system, the operating approach for changes in ambient temperature and availability of sunlight. Through reduced power block cost and a detailed cycle model, the LCOE is modeled to be 5.98 ¢/kWh, achieving targeted techno-economic performance. The LCOE of the CSP system is compared to the cost of hybrid solar and fossil-fired systems. An analysis is made on the efficacy of a fossil backup system with CSP and how that relates to potential future costs of carbon dioxide emissions

schmitt, josh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Palo Verde Water Cycle Model

SAND2022-12901 O The Palo Verde Water Cycle Model (PVWCM) is a dynamic multi-physics and economics code that allows managers and engineers to assess the economic benefit of potential water-saving technologies and water sources before money is invested in them. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Middleton, Bobby↗
DOE OSTI2014

THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

Carbon emission mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Solar plus: Optimization of distributed solar PV through battery storage and dispatchable load in residential buildings

As utility electricity rates evolve, pairing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems with battery storage has potential to ensure the value proposition of residential solar by mitigating economic uncertainty. In addition to batteries, load control technologies can reshape customer load profiles to optimize PV system use. The combination of PV, energy storage, and load control provides an integrated approach to PV deployment, which we call 'solar plus'. The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Renewable Energy Optimization (REopt) model is utilized to evaluate cost-optimal technology selection, sizing, and dispatch in residential buildings under a variety of rate structures and locations. The REopt model is extended to include a controllable or 'smart' domestic hot water heater model and smart air conditioner model. We find that the solar plus approach improves end user economics across a variety of rate structures - especially those that are challenging for PV - including lower grid export rates, non-coincident time-of-use structures, and demand charges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Economic Analyses in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck: A Review of the Literature From a Clinical Perspective

The purpose of this review was to describe cost-effectiveness and cost analysis studies across treatment modalities for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN), while placing their results in context of the current clinical practice. We performed a literature search in PubMed for English-language studies addressing economic analyses of treatment modalities for SCCHN published from January 2000 to March 2013. We also performed an additional search for related studies published by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom. Identified articles were classified into 3 clinical approaches (organ preservation, radiation therapy modalities, and chemotherapy regimens) and into 2 types of economic studies (cost analysis and cost-effectiveness/cost-utility studies). All cost estimates were normalized to US dollars, year 2013 values. Our search yielded 23 articles: 13 related to organ preservation approaches, 5 to radiation therapy modalities, and 5 to chemotherapy regimens. In general, studies analyzed different questions and modalities, making it difficult to reach a conclusion. Even when restricted to comparisons of modalities within the same clinical approach, studies often yielded conflicting findings. The heterogeneity across economic studies of SCCHN should be carefully understood in light of the modeling assumptions and limitations of each study and placed in context with relevant settings of clinical practices and study perspectives. Furthermore, the scarcity of comparative effectiveness and quality-of-life data poses unique challenges for conducting economic analyses for a resource-intensive disease, such as SCCHN, that requires a multimodal care. Future research is needed to better understand how to compare the costs and cost-effectiveness of different modalities for SCCHN.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible FlueCO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions remain a significant challenge on the path to clean energy. There are increasing legislative, social, and environmental factors motivating CO2 emissions reduction from power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS in natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants is critical to achieve a net-zero carbon electricity grid. Enhanced 45Q tax credits provide new incentives, but currently available technologies are unable to profitably operate in grids with deep variable renewable penetration which require flexible NGCC operation. Luna Labs has developed the FlueCO2 membrane to enable a profitable NGCC-CCS process. The FlueCO2 membrane couples steam transport across the membrane to CO2 transport in the opposite direction, enabling high capture efficiencies and low energy costs even at low CO2 concentrations. The dual-phase membrane can operate in the range of typical flue gas temperatures and pressures and does not require temperature or pressure cycling. Luna Labs’ FlueCO2 technology enables flexible and profitable operation of NGCC plants with lower capital investment and impact on electricity prices. In this Phase 1 project, Luna Labs utilized experimental testing, modeling, process simulation, and standardized costing methodologies to evaluate the techno-economic value of a 650 MW greenfield NGCC plant with FlueCO2 (NGCC-FlueCO2). Key design requirements for operation were established and plant performance under load-leveling conditions was validated through computational fluid dynamics and process modeling. Luna Labs developed a dynamic modeling tool which modeled plant operational modes across a variety of tax structures and electricity pricing scenarios to project the overall Net Present Value (NPV) of the NGCC-FlueCO2. FlueCO2 minimizes the impact of CCS integration on plant operation by integrating directly into the NGCC heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). By tapping into the plant’s low-pressure (LP) steam, operators can divert LP steam to the greenfield NGCC and/or CCS process in response to dynamic markets. Since FlueCO2 will not significantly affect HRSG (or NGCC) operation, CCS only turns off during peak power demand (>$250/MWh). Under baseload conditions, FlueCO2 lowers the capital (37%), energy (36%) and carbon capture (<$40/tonne) costs and can increase the overall plant lifetime NPV by approximately ~$1B in comparison with NGCC solvent-based capture reference cases (NETL Case 31B). Luna Labs has shared its costing tools with several interested partners and customers, which follows a generalizable approach to costing analysis.

Kelly, Jesse↗
DOE OSTI2016

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. - Highlights: • Experts identified challenges for health and pathogen modelling under climate change. • Eighteen key challenges and associated research priorities were identified. • Increasing capacity will require improved organisation and sharing knowledge. • Better communication across the diverse topics and approaches in this field is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic and life-cycle analysis of strategies for improving operability and biomass quality in catalytic fast pyrolysis of forest residues

Many of the challenges faced by the first commercial biorefineries were associated with feedstock handling, quality, and cost. Strategies are needed to enable further expansion of biorefineries and meet the growing demand for bio-based fuels and products. Here, we examine 2 key feedstock challenges and mitigation strategies in the context of a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) biorefinery: (1) the operability of the feed system, which may be improved by modifying the minimum particle size fed to the reactor, and (2) the quality of the biomass, which may be improved by employing air classification to remove undesirable material and increase fuel yields. We conduct techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis for these strategies, employing a discrete event simulation model for biomass preprocessing combined with a series of correlations developed from literature data and a rigorous CFP conversion model. Our results highlight the importance of balancing increased cost and material losses from preprocessing against improved operability and fuel yields. Economics and sustainability were optimized when operating at the lowest minimum particle size, emphasizing the importance of minimizing material losses while maintaining the operability of the process. Economically, additional costs and material losses from air classification could be acceptable due to improved biomass conversion, and an optimum air classification speed was identified; however, the fuel GHG emissions were minimized when air classification was not used. Valorizing material removed during preprocessing as a coproduct could improve economics and sustainability, decreasing the burden of material losses.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-sensitive modeling of high temperature creep in grade-91 alloy

Predicting the effects of microstructure on high-temperature creep responses of steel components is critical to minimize the risks of failure and maximize economic viability in the energy sector. In this research, a recently developed advanced mechanistic constitutive model is employed to study the effect of microstructure on the creep responses and to rationalize experimentally reported variability in the performances of grade-91 alloy. Hundreds of experimental creep tests from the literature are used to assess the predictability of the model. The model proposed is shown to accurately predict the steady-state creep rates and also the less commonly considered, yet important, primary-to-secondary transients for a wide range of creep conditions. Further, the model is capable of extrapolating the creep response of grade 91 alloy even outside of the calibration regime. Using this model, the roles of initial microstructure described in terms of grain size, dislocation density, and precipitate content, on the creep responses are investigated. The effect of initial microstructure on the steady-state creep rates and creep-strain is found to vary with stress and temperature. Grain size plays a significant role in the low-stress creep, where the diffusional creep is dominant. On the other hand, the effects of dislocation densities and precipitate content are significant in the dislocation-plasticity-dominated high-stress and temperature regimes. Furthermore, by comparing model predictions against a large experimental creep database, it is found that variability in the creep responses can be rationalized on the basis of differences in the initial microstructure. Overall, this work provides a robust pathway for microstructure-aware engineering design, verification, and validation of metallic components for energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of potential aerosol transmission and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 through central ventilation systems

Here we evaluate the concentrations and probabilities of infection for both building interior and exterior exposure sources using a well-mixed model in a connected multizone building. As a central hub of many community and economic activities, buildings provide social connectivity, but the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced social connectivity due to concerns of viral spread within buildings. Although single zone models of infectious spread are well studied, the impact of aerosolized spread of SARS-CoV-2 via air handling systems in multizone buildings remains unexplored. Here we evaluate the influence of filtration, air exchange rates, and the fraction of outdoor air on the probability of infection using the well-known well-mixed modeling approach for a multizone. We find filtration lowers the concentration and probability of infection in both source and connected rooms provided at least some air is recirculated, but that probability is not zero. Filtration has no influence without recirculation or unless the outdoor air contains virus. We find that increasing the air exchange rate removes virus from the source room faster but also increases the rate of exposure to connected rooms. Therefore, slower air exchange rates reduce infectivity in connected rooms at shorter durations, but higher air exchange rates reduce infectivity at longer durations. We further find that when outdoor air is virus free, increasing the fraction of outdoor air is helpful, but, when outdoor air is infective, pathogen exposure inside can persist for hours after a short-term release.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Timescale Optimal Operation Framework for Integrated Economic and Reliability Analysis of Hybrid Power Plants

This paper introduces a hierarchical modeling framework for hybrid power plants (HPP) to facilitate the operation of HPP in power systems similar to conventional generators (Congens) in the integrated multi-timescale optimal operation framework. To consider the uncertainties of HPP renewable power in the day-ahead scheduling, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is used. To ensure that the state-of-charge (SOC) of energy storage systems in HPPs aligns closely with the planned value for long-term reliability, real-time SOC management is incorporated. In addition, an adjustable real-time control is designed for the robust delivery of HPP real-time services. Case studies performed on a revised IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for HPP operation. Simulation results highlight that the proposed framework not only can help operators schedule HPP similar to Congens in varying weather conditions but can also maintain the frequency reliability of the system.

frequency stability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wall Upgrades for Deep Energy Savings in Residential Buildings: Interim Results from a Multi-Year Study

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Minnesota are conducting a three-year, multipart study on residential retrofit wall assemblies. The project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technology Office and will identify, test and verify wall assemblies for hygrothermal performance in retrofit applications. The study includes a comprehensive literature review and expert advisory group, which inform wall selection. Selected wall assemblies are then thermally simulated using EnergyPlus and THERM, and hygrothermally simulated using WUFI, to model both thermal and moisture performance of the wall assembly. Eight wall assemblies are then experimentally tested in an in-situ laboratory environment at the University of Minnesota, with a typical residential wall used as a baseline. The in-situ experiment looks at the physical hygrothermal performance of each assembly. The simulation and experimental results will be combined with an economic analysis to produce a techno-economic study of residential wall systems for deep energy retrofits. This paper presents progress after year one of the study. Wall system modeling and laboratory testing is scheduled to begin in November, 2019. We will discuss the parameters for wall selection and experimental design, which includes approaches to modeling and simulation, along with the physical experiment design. This paper will also outline the parameters for the techno-economic analysis, and criteria used to inform model development.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Thermal hydraulics modeling of On-line refueling for the Advanced High Temperature Reactor (AHTR)

As part of the effort to move forward the Fluoride salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) technology, the Advanced High Temperature Reactor (AHTR) is being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and several other institutions. Due to its plank fuel design and inherently low heavy metal loading, which challenges fuel utilization, online refueling is considered as an option for improving the economic viability of this reactor. This paper presents the thermal hydraulic modeling of the online refueling for the AHTR. Analyses at the single channel and fuel assembly level have been performed in order to develop a model of the reactor. The reactor modeling has been integrated with CFD studies for characterizing the steady state conditions and the refueling transient. The simulations of the transient have been complemented by the analysis of the stability of the refueling operation. This work demonstrates the viability of online refueling from a thermal hydraulic standpoint and develops a modeling approach for this type of operational transient.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Comparing large scale CCS deployment potential in the USA and China: a detailed analysis based on country-specific CO2 transport & storage cost curves

The United States and China are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world and their projected continued growth and reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, make them strong candidates for CCS. Previous work has revealed that both nations have over 1600 large electric utility and other industrial point CO2 sources as well as very large CO2 storage resources on the order of 2,000 billion metric tons (Gt) of onshore storage capacity. In each case, the vast majority of this capacity is found in deep saline formations. In both the USA and China, candidate storage reservoirs are likely to be accessible by most sources with over 80% of these large industrial CO2 sources having a CO2 storage option within just 80 km. This suggests a strong potential for CCS deployment as a meaningful option to efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from these large, vibrant economies. However, while the USA and China possess many similarities with regards to the potential value that CCS might provide, including the range of costs at which CCS may be available to most large CO2 sources in each nation, there are a number of more subtle differences that may help us to understand the ways in which CCS deployment may differ between these two countries in order for the USA and China to work together - and in step with the rest of the world - to most efficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper details the first ever analysis of CCS deployment costs in these two countries based on methodologically comparable CO2 source and sink inventories, economic analysis, geospatial source-sink matching and cost curve modeling. This type of analysis provides a valuable insight into the degree to which early and sustained opportunities for climate change mitigation via commercial-scale CCS are available to the two countries, and could facilitate greater collaboration in areas where those opportunities overlap.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

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