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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,801 records · Page 100
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Warming‐Induced Earlier Greenup Leads to Reduced Stream Discharge in a Temperate Mixed Forest Catchment

Abstract The phenological response of vegetation to ongoing climate change may have great implications for hydrological regimes in the eastern United States. However, there have been few studies that analyze its resultant effect on catchment discharge dynamics, separating from dominant climatic controls. In this study, we examined the net effect of phenological variations on the long‐term and interannual gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes in a temperate deciduous forest, as well as on the catchment discharge behavior in a mixed deciduous‐conifer forest catchment. First, we calibrated the spring and autumn leaf phenology models for the Harvard Forest in the northeastern United States, where the onsets of greenup and senescence have been significantly advanced and delayed, 10.3 and 6.0 days respectively, over the past two decades (1992–2011). We then integrated the phenology models into a mechanistic watershed ecohydrological model (RHESSys), which improved the interannual and long‐term simulations of both the plot‐scale daily GPP and ET fluxes and the catchment discharge dynamics. We found that the phenological changes amplified the long‐term increases in GPP and ET driven by the climatic controls. In particular, the earlier greenup onsets resulted in increases in annual ET significantly, while the delayed senescence onsets had less influence. Consequently, the earlier greenup onsets reduced stream discharge not only during the growing season but also during the following dormant season due to soil water depletion. This study highlights the importance of understanding vegetation response to ongoing climate change in order to predict the future hydrological nonstationarity in this region.

Kim, Ji Hyun↗
DOE OSTI2020

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Model Structure and Climate Data Uncertainty in Historical Simulations of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle (1850–2014)

Abstract The divergence among Earth system models in the terrestrial carbon cycle has prompted interest in how to reduce uncertainty. Previous studies have identified model structural uncertainty arising from process parameterizations and parameter values. The current study highlights the importance of climate forcing in generating carbon cycle uncertainty. We use simulations in which three models (Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), CLM4.5, CLM5) with substantially different carbon cycles are forced with two climate reconstructions (CRUNCEPv7, Global Soil Wetness Project 3 version 1 (GSWP3v1)) to examine the contributions of model structure and climate to uncertainty in the carbon cycle over the period 1850–2014. Climate uncertainty for global annual net biome production exceeds one third of total uncertainty (defined as the sum of climate and model structure uncertainty) in the first half of the twentieth century, but declines after the 1950s. Global annual gross primary productivity, net primary productivity, heterotrophic respiration, and vegetation and soil carbon stocks have substantial climate uncertainty (relative to total uncertainty) throughout the simulation period. Climate forcing contributes more than one half of total uncertainty for these carbon cycle fluxes and stocks throughout boreal North America and Eurasia, some midlatitude regions, and in eastern Amazonia and western equatorial Africa during the decade 2000–2009. Comparison with observationally based data sets of the carbon cycle using model benchmarking methods provides insight into strengths and deficiencies among models and climate forcings, but we caution against overreliance on benchmarking to discriminate among models. The conceptualization of uncertainty arising from this study implies embracing multiple feasible model simulations rather than focusing on which model or simulation is best.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evidence for Edge Enhancements of Soil Respiration in Temperate Forests

Abstract Forest fragmentation impacts carbon uptake and storage; however, the magnitude and direction of fragmentation impacts on soil respiration remain poorly characterized. We quantify soil respiration rates along edge‐to‐interior transects in two temperate broadleaf forests in the eastern United States that vary in climate, species composition, and soil type. We observe average soil respiration rates 15–26% higher at the forest edge compared to the interior, corresponding to large gradients in soil temperature. We find no significant difference in the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature between the forest edge and interior. Fragmentation and resultant shifts in microenvironment alter forest productivity and soil respiration near forest edges. Ecosystem models do not currently represent edge dynamics, but given the prevalence of landscape fragmentation and its effect on carbon cycling along forest edges, this omission likely introduces an important source of uncertainty in our understanding of terrestrial carbon dynamics with a changing landscape and climate.

Smith, Ian A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

ENSO Regime Changes Responsible for Decadal Phase Relationship Variations Between ENSO Sea Surface Temperature and Warm Water Volume

The relationship between the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) has varied considerably on decadal timescales. These changes are strongly related to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. While both eastern Pacific (EP) and CP ENSO events show clear signatures of WWV recharge/discharge, their phase-lag relationships between WWV and Niño3.4 SST are different. The WWV usually leads the Niño3.4 SST by two to three seasons during EP ENSO, while the lead time is reduced to one season during CP ENSO. The different phase-lag relationships can be explained by distinct periodicities of the two ENSO types. Hence, ENSO regime changes associated with decadal predominance of either EP or CP ENSO events can give rise to decadal variations in the statistical WWV-ENSO SST relationship. We emphasize the importance of identifying these different ENSO types and potentially different ENSO regimes to assess ENSO predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable-resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5-VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone-related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone-induced hazards may change in future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deciphering the Stress State of Seismogenic Faults in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas Based on an Improved Stress Map

Fault location and geometry are prime considerations in the reactivation of preexisting faults. Here, we combine relocated earthquake catalogs and focal mechanisms to delineate seismogenic faults in Oklahoma and southern Kansas and analyze their stress state. Initially, we identify and map seismogenic faults based on earthquake clustering. We then obtain an improved stress map using 2,047 high-quality focal mechanisms. The regional stress map shows a gradual transition from oblique normal faulting in western Oklahoma to strike-slip faulting in central and eastern Oklahoma. Stress amplitude ratio shows a strong correlation with pore pressure from hydrogeologic models, suggesting that pore pressure exhibits a measurable influence on stress patterns. Finally, we assess fault stress state via 3-D Mohr circles; a parameter understress is used to quantify the level of fault criticality (with 0 meaning critically stressed faults and 1 meaning faults with no applied shear stress). Our findings suggest that most active faults have near vertical planes (planarity >0.8 and dip >70°), and there is a strong correlation between fault length and maximum magnitude on each fault. The fault trends show prominent conjugate sets that strike [55–75°] and [105–125°]. A comparison with mapped sedimentary faults and basement fractures reveals common tectonic control. Based on 3-D Mohr circles, we find that 78% of the faults are critically stressed (understress ≤0.2), while several seismogenic faults are misoriented with high understress (>0.4). Fault geometry and local stress fields may be used to evaluate potential seismic hazard, as the largest earthquakes tend to occur on long, critically stressed faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Atmospheric Blocking and Other Large-Scale Precursor Patterns of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the North Pacific: A CESM2 Study

Atmospheric rivers, narrow channels of strong winds carrying abundant moisture and spanning thousands of kilometers, often result in flooding. The broader weather patterns that precede atmospheric river formation can determine which regions the storms will impact, but our understanding of such processes remains insufficient. In this study, atmospheric river events in the North Pacific region are identified, and their precursor weather patterns are examined in observational data sets and within a global climate model. The analysis shows that when a large area of high pressure forms over Alaska and far eastern Siberia, the preferred path of storms crossing the North Pacific is diverted toward the south. The southward-shifted storms, some of which develop into atmospheric rivers, guide moist air toward the U.S. west coast and can produce extreme precipitation. The climate model performs reasonably well at representing atmospheric rivers and their associated precursor weather patterns. These results highlight important connections between atmospheric rivers and the large-scale weather patterns than can precede them by more than a week. Knowledge of such patterns has the potential to improve predictions of damaging wind and extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Drizzle, Turbulence, and Density Currents Below Post Cold Frontal Open Cellular Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

Nine cases of postcold frontal marine stratocumulus clouds exhibiting open cellular mesoscale organization are analyzed to characterize the drizzle, turbulence, and density currents below them. Data collected by the vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar and multiple lidars part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are used in these analyses. A total of 251 drizzle shafts passed over the site with 76 shafts sampled for more than 15 min by the vertically pointing instruments. On average the drizzle shafts were ~18 km wide with below-cloud drizzle water path of ~40 g m −2 , cloud base rain rate of 7.78 mm day −1 , and cloud base drizzle modal diameter of 393 μm. The widths of the drizzle shafts did not exhibit any relationship with the cloud base rain rate, below-cloud drizzle water path, and the total water removed from the cloud. The downdrafts in the lowest 500 m within the drizzle cells strengthened with increasing cloud base rain rates, while the updrafts within drizzle cells did not exhibit this behavior. On average, the surface air density, pressure, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed along the background wind during the drizzle shaft were higher by 1.88 g m −3 , 8.60 Pa, 0.24 g kg −1 , and 1.22 m s −1 , respectively, from their background values. On the other hand, the surface air temperature was lower by 0.43 K during the drizzle shaft than its background value. The coincident measurements highlight the drizzle-turbulence-surface coupling in these cloud systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Description and Results at High Resolution

This study provides an overview of the coupled high-resolution Version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and documents the characteristics of a 50-year-long high-resolution control simulation with time-invariant 1950 forcings following the HighResMIP protocol. In terms of global root-mean-squared error metrics, this high-resolution simulation is generally superior to results from the low-resolution configuration of E3SMv1 (due to resolution, tuning changes, and possibly initialization procedure) and compares favorably to models in the CMIP5 ensemble. Ocean and sea ice simulation is particularly improved, due to better resolution of bathymetry, the ability to capture more variability and extremes in winds and currents, and the ability to resolve mesoscale ocean eddies. The largest improvement in this regard is an ice-free Labrador Sea, which is a major problem at low resolution. Interestingly, several features found to improve with resolution in previous studies are insensitive to resolution or even degrade in E3SMv1. Most notable in this regard are warm bias and associated stratocumulus deficiency in eastern subtropical oceans and lack of improvement in El Niño. Another major finding of this study is that resolution increase had negligible impact on climate sensitivity (measured by net feedback determined through uniform +4K prescribed sea surface temperature increase) and aerosol sensitivity. Cloud response to resolution increase consisted of very minor decrease at all levels. Large-scale patterns of precipitation bias were also relatively unaffected by grid spacing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iron Speciation in PM 2.5 From Urban, Agriculture, and Mixed Environments in Colorado, USA

Atmospheric iron solubility varies depending on whether the particles are collected in rural or urban areas, with urban areas showing increased iron solubility. In this study, we investigate if the iron species present in different environments affects its ultimate solubility. Field data are presented from the Platte River Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (PRAPPE), aimed at understanding the interactions between organic carbon and trace elements in atmospheric particulate matter (PM). 24-hr PM 2.5 samples were collected during the summer and winter (2016–2017), at three different sites on the Eastern Colorado plains: an urban, agricultural, and a mixed site. Downtown Denver had an average total and water-soluble iron air concentration of 181.2 and 7.7 ng m -3 , respectively. Platteville, the mixed site, had an average of total iron of 76.1 ng m -3 , with average water-soluble iron concentration of 9.1 ng m -3 . Jackson State Park (rural/agricultural) had the lowest total iron average of 31.5 ng m -3 and the lowest water-soluble iron average, 1.3 ng m -3 . The iron oxidation state and chemical speciation of 97 samples across all sites and seasons was probed by X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. The most common iron phases observed were almandine (Fe 3 Al 2 Si 3 O 12 ) (Denver 21%, Platteville 16%, Jackson 24%), magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) (Denver 9%, Platteville 4%, Jackson 5%) and Fe (III)dextran (Denver 5%, Platteville 13%, Jackson 5%), a surrogate for Fe-organic complexes. Additionally, native iron [Fe(0)] was found in significant amounts at all sites. No correlation was observed between iron solubility and iron oxidation state or chemical speciation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) Data Sets: Description, Management, and Delivery

The ACT-America project is a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital-2 mission designed to study the transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases. The open and freely available ACT-America data sets provide airborne in situ measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorological properties, airborne remote sensing measurements of aerosol backscatter, atmospheric boundary layer height and columnar content of atmospheric carbon dioxide, tower-based measurements, and modeled atmospheric mole fractions and regional carbon fluxes of greenhouse gases over the Central and Eastern United States. In this study, we conducted 121 research flights during five campaigns in four seasons during 2016–2019 over three regions of the US (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South) using two NASA research aircraft (B-200 and C-130). We performed three flight patterns (fair weather, frontal crossings, and OCO-2 underflights) and collected more than 1,140 h of airborne measurements via level-leg flights in the atmospheric boundary layer, lower, and upper free troposphere and vertical profiles spanning these altitudes. We also merged various airborne in situ measurements onto a common standard sampling interval, which brings coherence to the data, creates geolocated data products, and makes it much easier for the users to perform holistic analysis of the ACT-America data products. Here, we report on detailed information of data sets collected, the workflow for data sets including storage and processing of the quality controlled and quality assured harmonized observations, and their archival and formatting for users. Finally, we provide some important information on the dissemination of data products including metadata and highlights of applications of ACT-America data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wintertime particulate matter decrease buffered by unfavorable chemical processes despite emissions reductions in China

Extreme and persistent haze events frequently occur during wintertime China. While recent emissions reductions reduced annual mean fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations over eastern China, their effectiveness on wintertime PM2.5 trend remains uncertain. We use observations and model simulations to quantify seasonal differences in PM2.5 trends and investigate the underlying chemical mechanisms driving such differences. We find a much slower decrease in observed wintertime PM2.5 (–3.2% yr-1) since 2014, in contrast to a drastic summertime decrease (–10.3% yr-1). Simulations show two previously underappreciated mechanisms buffering wintertime PM2.5 decrease, including an increase in oxidation capacity due to nitrogen oxides (NOx) reductions under wintertime volatile organic compound (VOC)- limited chemistry, and an enhanced conversion of nitric acid to nitrate by ammonia due to sulfur dioxide reductions. Our findings suggest that control policies targeting VOC and deep NOx reductions are needed to improve wintertime PM2.5 air quality over China.

Leung, Danny M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Warm Arctic, Cold Siberia Pattern: Role of Full Arctic Amplification Versus Sea Ice Loss Alone

The effect of future Arctic amplification (AA) on the extratropical atmospheric circulation remains unclear in modeling studies. Using a collection of coordinated atmospheric and coupled global climate model perturbation experiments, we find an emergent relationship between the high-latitude 1,000–500 hPa thickness response and an enhancement of the Siberian High in winter. This wave number-1-like sea level pressure anomaly pattern is linked to an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and a dynamical cooling response in eastern Asia. Additional simulations, where AA is imposed directly into the model domain by nudging, demonstrate how the sea ice forcing is insufficient by itself to capture the vertical extent of the warming and by extension the amplitude of the response in the Siberian High. Additionally, this study demonstrates the importance of the vertical extent of the tropospheric warming over the polar cap in revealing the “warm Arctic, cold Siberia” anomaly pattern in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parameterizing Subgrid Variations of Land Surface Heat Fluxes to the Atmosphere Improves Boreal Summer Land Precipitation Simulation With the NCAR CESM1.2

Subgrid horizontal variations of land surface heat fluxes to the atmosphere resulting from subgrid land cover heterogeneity are important in land-atmosphere interaction in global climate models (GCMs). To incorporate it, a parameterization using stochastic sampling based on truncated normal distributions diagnosed from the land model and internal ensemble mean of multiple calls to the planetary boundary layer and deep convection schemes is developed. After its implementation in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2), large changes of simulated land precipitation are found to occur in regions where large subgrid variations of surface heat fluxes exist. The simulated precipitation is improved in boreal summer, especially over eastern China and the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. The improved precipitation is mainly a result of improved large-scale moisture convergence and advection by altered vertical diffusion and convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Breakdown of ENSO's Relationship With Thermocline Depth in the Central-Equatorial Pacific

Recent classification of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into two types, Eastern (EP) and Central (CP) events, has highlighted the importance of the central Pacific. We show here that the local correlation between ENSO subsurface temperatures (T sub ) in the upper 100-m and thermocline depth anomalies breaks down in the central equatorial Pacific, whereas T sub remains well correlated with sea surface height anomalies. This observed difference in the central equatorial Pacific is simulated by almost all climate models. It arises from a vertically slanted Tsub anomaly structure that is unique to the central equatorial Pacific. We show that this feature is an adiabatic response to wind-driving that is even present in a linear dynamic model, as long as the model has enough baroclinic modes to adequately represent the observed vertical complexity. Our findings have implications for better understanding the different importance of thermocline feedback in CP and EP events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations of Stress Parameters in the Southern California Plate Boundary Around the South Central Transverse Ranges

We examine the stress field in Southern California with a focus on the region near the South Central Transverse Ranges (SCTR), using a refined stress inversion methodology. We independently invert declustered and aftershocks focal mechanisms from the years 1981 to 2017. Comparisons between the stress field orientations and the stress ratios from these inversions provide information on local sources of the stress field. Regionally, the SHmax tends to be toward NNE and the stress ratios vary from transtensional stress regime near the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ), to strike-slip faulting near the SCTR, and toward transpression near the Western Transverse Ranges. Detailed analysis of stress parameters near the SCTR indicates deviations from the regional strike-slip faulting including the following: (1) The San Bernardino Mountain area shows S Hmax direction toward NNW and transpressional stress components likely associated with the motions of the San Andreas Fault and ECSZ; (2) the Cajon Pass and San Gorgonio Pass show transpressional stress regime near the bottom of the seismogenic zone likely associated with the elevated topography; and (3) in Crafton Hills, rotation of the principal stress plunges and SHmax direction and transtensional stress regime below ~10 km, along with lower estimated apparent friction coefficient, suggest a weak fault possibly associated with deep creep. The performed multiscale analysis resolves effects of regional and local loadings. The average stress parameters in the analyzed 37 years do not show significant temporal variations of stress field near the SCTR region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

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