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On the utilization of engineering knowledge in design optimization

Some current research work conducted at the University of Michigan is described to illustrate efforts for incorporating knowledge in optimization in a nontraditional way. The incorporation of available knowledge in a logic structure is examined in two circumstances. The first examines the possibility of introducing global design information in a local active set strategy implemented during the iterations of projection-type algorithms for nonlinearly constrained problems. The technique used algorithms for nonlinearly constrained problems. The technique used combines global and local monotinicity analysis of the objective and constraint functions. The second examines a knowledge-based program which aids the user to create condigurations that are most desirable from the manufacturing assembly viewpoint. The data bank used is the classification scheme suggested by Boothroyd. The important aspect of this program is that it is an aid for synthesis intended for use in the design concept phase in a way similar to the so-called idea-triggers in creativity-enhancement techniques like brain-storming. The idea generation, however, is not random but it is driven by the goal of achieving the best acceptable configuration.

Papalambros, P.↗

Estimating Global Precipitation for Science and Application

Over the past two decades there has been vigorous development in the satellite assets and the algorithms necessary to estimate precipitation around the globe. In particular the highly successful joint NASAJAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, also joint between NASA and JAXA, have driven these issues. At the same time, the long-running Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) continues to extend a stable, climate-oriented view of global precipitation. This talk will provide an overview of these projects and the wider international community of precipitation datasets, sketch plans for next-generation products, and provide some examples of the best use for the different products. One key lesson learned is that different data sets are needed to address the variety of issues that need precipitation data, including detailed 3-D views of hurricanes, flash flood forecasting, drought analysis, and global change.

global precipitation↗

High speed PLIF study of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability upon re-shock

The Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) of a twice-shocked gas interface is researched using high-speed planar-laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) in the Wisconsin Shock Tube Laboratory’s vertical shock tube. The initial condition (IC) is a shear layer with broadband diffuse perturbations at the interface between a helium-acetone mixture and argon. This IC is accelerated by a shock of nominal strength M = 1.8, and then accelerated again by the transmitted shock that reflects off the end wall of the tube. An estimate of the light gas mole fraction is extracted from high-speed imaging using an iterative process that accounts for the nonlinear temperature dependence of the acetone’s fluorescence quantum yield (FQY) and absorption cross-section. A vorticity deposition model for the initial growth rate after reshock is compared with the Mikaelian model for re-shock. Previously used in literature, the number of generations is shown to naturally arise from a normalisation of the scalar transport equation. A self-similar analysis is then further performed using the mole fraction data to explore the evolution of the RMI after reshock and the higher order moments of the light gas mole fraction are compared with a proposed model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Neural network interatomic potential-driven analysis of phase stability in Ti–V alloys at the atomistic scale

The evolution of the ω phase in titanium–vanadium (Ti–V) alloys is critical for their mechanical properties, particularly in aerospace and biomedical applications. Here, this study employs a Rapid Artificial Neural Network (RANN) potential to model the ω phase evolution at the atomistic level, demonstrating a high degree of consistency with experimental observations, unlike the Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM), which fails to capture this phase transformation accurately. RANN simulations replicate key phenomena such as the nucleation of α precipitates at ω/β interfaces and accurate lattice orientations, enhancing our understanding of phase stability and transformation kinetics. The findings affirm that RANN potentials can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of complex material behaviors, offering a powerful tool for designing advanced materials with tailored properties such as solute effect in various stacking fault energies. This approach not only bridges the gap between theoretical predictions and empirical data but also sets a new direction for future research in materials science, emphasizing the integration of machine learning techniques in the development and optimization of new alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Intertwined impacts of water, energy development, and carbon emissions in China

China is rapidly expanding its alternative and non-conventional energy production capabilities. Although renewable electricity remains the focus, considerable investment has supported construction of coal liquefaction and coal gasification facilities in the desert steppes of north-central China, new coal mines in arid Inner Mongolia, and tight oil and gas extraction in the Ordos to supplement limited domestic supplies of oil and gas. At the same time, China is also facing severe drought and water scarcity in these same regions and in response has expanded various water supply technologies such as desalination and wastewater treatment. Recent government goals and measures for reducing energy and water consumption and increasing efficiency introduced in national policies, however, are poorly or not coordinated, resulting in contradictory objectives for which physical interlinkages are not well understood. This research intends to provide insights for future energy-water nexus management decisions in China, through systematic, comprehensive modeling of the water-energy nexus in China based on comprehensive, bottom-up technology characterizations. Existing studies fail to adequately characterize the details on specific technologies, nor do they comprehensively cover all energy sectors, including energy conversion for non-energy products. We developed integrated assessment (IA) capabilities to allow stakeholders to observe the tradeoffs between various technology options and policy decisions and to test hypotheses/premises in a scenario-driven environment. The results of our analysis underscore the growing interconnection between water and energy in China, the mixed trade-offs from developing low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy and inland nuclear, and the importance of water-energy nexus issues at the regional and local scales. This study lays the groundwork for an integrated resource policy planning process in China and provides an assessment methodology and research directions for future studies of the water-energy nexus. To conclude, this study contributes to the water-energy nexus literature by providing systematic data and policy implications for China, where data are typically less accessible, as well as providing references for other regions in the world that are facing similar water and energy use and planning challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

nmRanalysis: An Open-Source Web Application for Semi-automated NMR Metabolite Profiling

Though data acquisition and initial signal pre-processing of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra have achieved high degrees of automation, downstream processing - specifically the profiling of spectra - has bottlenecked the overall NMR analysis workflow. Several efforts have been made to mitigate this bottleneck, but these solutions often trade an increase in automation for limitations elsewhere. Here, in this technical note, we introduce nmRanalysis, a user-friendly web-application that integrates the strengths of existing profiling tools for a more automated profiling workflow. nmRa-nalysis additionally incorporates novel features, including a machine-learning-driven recommender system for me-tabolite identification, further increasing the utility of nmRanalysis over the individual tools that it incorporates.

Flores, Javier E. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

Selection function of clusters in Dark Energy Survey year 3 data from cross-matching with South Pole Telescope detections

Context. Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. However, modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by noncluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). Aims. We empirically constrained the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy Survey data with the redMaPPer algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). Methods. For matched clusters, we augmented the redMaPPer catalog with the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we used the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multiwavelength data, we explored various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Results. Our analysis reveals a clear preference for models with an additional skewed scatter component associated with projection effects over a purely log-normal scatter model. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge that requires a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Phytobiome and Transcriptional Adaptation of Populus deltoides to Acute Progressive Drought and Cyclic Drought

Plant drought stress causes systematic changes to photosynthesis, metabolism, growth, and potentially the phytobiome. Additionally, drought affects plants in both a species-specific and water-deficit-driven manner, causing the response to drought to be dependent both on how drought is being experienced and on any adaptation to prior drought exposure. Thus, understanding the effect of drought on plants requires assessing drought response in multiple conditions, such as progressive acute drought and recurrent cyclic drought, and at different levels of severity. In this study, we have utilized RNA sequencing to identify changes to the plant transcriptome and the phytobiome during both acute progressive drought and cyclic drought at multiple severities. Co-analysis of the plant and phytobiome, utilizing the same RNAseq data, allows for the identification of novel associations that would not be possible otherwise. We have identified that the drought response ranges from increased transcripts related to photosynthesis and metabolic activity in mild acute drought to decreased transcripts related to photosynthesis and metabolic impairment in severe drought. Moreover, while water deficit is a main driver of transcriptional responses in severe drought, there are increases in reactive oxygen species (ROS) metabolism and photosynthetic transcripts in cyclic severe drought compared with acute severe drought, independent of water deficit. The phytobiome exhibits alternate responses to drought when compared with the transcriptome. Specifically, the phytobiome is affected more by the cyclic or acute nature of the drought rather than the severity of the drought, with the phytobiome having an increase in taxa under cyclic drought that are often reported to have beneficial effects on the plants. Finally, we have identified associations between taxa in the phytobiome with expression of disease response, ROS metabolism, and photosynthesis transcripts suggesting interplay between the host plant and its phytobiome in response to drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm

Neither the disease mechanism nor treatments for COVID-19 are currently known. Here, we present a novel molecular mechanism for COVID-19 that provides therapeutic intervention points that can be addressed with existing FDA-approved pharmaceuticals. The entry point for the virus is ACE2, which is a component of the counteracting hypotensive axis of RAS. Bradykinin is a potent part of the vasopressor system that induces hypotension and vasodilation and is degraded by ACE and enhanced by the angiotensin 1-9 produced by ACE2. Here, we perform a new analysis on gene expression data from cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from COVID-19 patients that were used to sequence the virus. Comparison with BALF from controls identifies a critical imbalance in RAS represented by decreased expression of ACE in combination with increases in ACE2, renin, angiotensin, key RAS receptors, kinogen and many kallikrein enzymes that activate it, and both bradykinin receptors. This very atypical pattern of the RAS is predicted to elevate bradykinin levels in multiple tissues and systems that will likely cause increases in vascular dilation, vascular permeability and hypotension. These bradykinin-driven outcomes explain many of the symptoms being observed in COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: An Application to XCO2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

Calle, Leonardo↗

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: an Application to Xco2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

segmentation algorithm↗

Applications of machine learning to a compact magnetic spectrometer for high repetition rate, laser-driven particle acceleration

Accurately and rapidly diagnosing laser–plasma interactions is often difficult due to the time-intensive nature of the analysis and will only become more so with the rise of high repetition rate lasers and the desire to implement feedback on a commensurate timescale. Diagnostic analysis employing machine learning techniques can help address this problem while maintaining a high degree of accuracy. We report on the application of machine learning to the analysis of a scintillator-based electron spectrometer for experiments on high intensity, laser–plasma interactions at the Colorado State University Advanced Lasers and Extreme Photonics facility. Our approach utilizes a neural network trained on synthetic data and tested on experiments to extract the accelerated electron temperature. By leveraging transfer learning, we demonstrate an improvement in the neural network accuracy, decreasing the network error by 50%.

Swanson, K. K. (ORCID:0000000286880568)↗

Power-traffic coordinated operation for bi-peak shaving and bi-ramp smoothing – A hierarchical data-driven approach

The power distribution system and urban transportation system are two networked system bare their own operation constraints, such peak load in power systems and traffic congestion in transportation system. With the increasing number of electrical vehicles and charging/discharging stations, two systems are become tightly coupled. However, to optimize the two systems target using electrical vehicles as decision control variables cannot be easily solved using a uniformed optimization frame work. Thus we propose a hierarchical optimization approach to address this problem, which consists of a higher and a lower level. In the higher level, the power distribution system and urban transportation system are treated together to minimize the social cost. Meanwhile, the electrical vehicles and the charging/discharging stations are treated as customers to minimize their own expenditures. Then, an equilibrium is designed to determine the optimal charging/discharging price. In the lower level, the models of power distribution system and urban transportation system are developed to provide a detailed analysis. Specifically, in power distribution system, the three-phase unbalanced optimal power flow problem is relaxed with the semidefinite relaxation programming, and solved with alternating direction method of multiplier. A dynamic user equilibrium problem is formulated for the urban transportation system. For electrical vehicles, the state of charge is considered to optimize the charging/discharging schedule and reduce the impacts of power distribution systems. We conducted the simulation and numerical analysis using the IEEE 8500-bus distribution system and the Sioux Falls system with about 10,000 cars. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of leading edge protection application on wind turbine performance through energy and power decomposition approaches

Abstract Wind power production is driven by, and varies with, the stochastic yet uncontrollable wind and environmental inputs. To compare a wind turbine's performance, a direct comparison on power outputs is always confounded by the stochastic effect of weather inputs. It is therefore crucial to control for the weather and environmental influence. Toward that objective, our study proposes an energy decomposition approach. We start with comparing the change in the total energy production and refer to the change in total energy as delta energy. On this delta energy, we apply our decomposition method, which is to separate the portion of energy change due to weather effects from that due to the turbine itself. We derive a set of mathematical relationships allowing us to perform this decomposition and examine the credibility and robustness of the proposed decomposition approach through extensive cross‐validation and case studies. We then apply the decomposition approach to Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data associated with several wind turbines to which leading‐edge protection was carried out. Our study shows that the leading‐edge protection applied on blades may cause a small decline to the power production efficiency in the short term, although we expect the leading‐edge protection to benefit the blade's reliability in the long term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Surface acoustic wave amplification by direct current-voltage supplied to graphene film

Using a high-resolution X-Ray diffraction measurement method, the surface acoustic wave (SAW) propagation in a graphene film on the surface of a Ca{sub 3}TaGa{sub 3}Si{sub 2}O{sub 14} (CTGS) piezoelectric crystal was investigated, where an external current was driven across the graphene film. Here, we show that the application of the DC field leads to a significant enhancement of the SAW magnitude and, as a result, to amplification of the diffraction satellites. Amplification of 33.2 dB/cm for the satellite +1, and of 13.8 dB/cm for the satellite +2, at 471 MHz has been observed where the external DC voltage of +10 V was applied. Amplification of SAW occurs above a DC field much smaller than that of a system using bulk semiconductor. Theoretical estimates are in reasonable agreement with our measurements and analysis of experimental data for other materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland↗

Use of the Tool to Support Renewable Energy Project Development (RE Data Explorer)

The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer is a user-friendly, geospatial analysis tool for analyzing renewable energy potential and informing decisions. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), RE Data Explorer performs visualization and analysis of renewable energy potential that can be customized for different scenarios. RE Data Explorer can support prospecting, integrated planning, policymaking, and other decision-making activities to accelerate renewable energy deployment. This document provides information on how the RE Data Explorer can support private sector utility-scale renewable energy project development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

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