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At least 181 records · Page 10

Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

land-use change↗

Production and Characterization of Additively Manufactured Radiator Panels with Integral Branching Heat Pipes for High-Temperature Heat Rejection

Emerging concepts for fission surface power and nuclear electric propulsion necessitate lightweight, mechanically robust, and thermally efficient heat rejection radiators. State-of-the-art intermediate-temperature (~400 K) composite radiator assemblies have been developed based on titanium-water heat pipes bonded to metal, graphite, and carbon-fiber-based panels. NASA has identified a need for new radiator concepts that can operate at even higher temperatures (500 – 600 K), minimize thermal resistances and thermal stress failures at bond interfaces, and approach areal densities of 2 – 3 kg m -2 . To meet these needs, our team is developing additively manufactured (AM) radiator panels with integral branching wicking heat pipe networks. Water is selected as the working fluid for this temperature range. Based on simulations and thermal vacuum experiments, these branching embedded heat pipe networks can efficiently distribute heat over panels for finned surface efficiencies of η f >70% at T H = 500 K input heat. This paper first presents laser powder-bed fusion AM strategies to produce embedded porous structures for wicking heat pipes in Inconel 718 and titanium alloys (commercially pure and Ti-6Al-4V alloys). Post-build chemical and thermal treatments are described that yield hydrophilic wicking surfaces for operation with water. Transient rate-of-rise experiments with water and acetone are reported that yield estimates for AM wick porosity (ϵ), permeability (K), and effective pore radius (r pore ). Based on the wick characterization results, small prototype radiator panels (75 × 125 mm) with integrated heat pipe networks were manufactured. Heat rejection performance data are presented from cold thermal vacuum testing, with heat input temperatures up to ~510 K. Future efforts will focus on improving heat pipe performance, optimizing radiator mass, and evaluating larger panels to assess scalability.

thermal management↗

Production and Characterization of Additively Manufactured Radiator Panels With Integral Branching Heat Pipes for High-Temperature Heat Rejection

Emerging concepts for fission surface power and nuclear electric propulsion necessitate lightweight, mechanically robust, and thermally efficient heat rejection radiators. State-of-the-art intermediate-temperature (~400 K) composite radiator assemblies have been developed based on titanium-water heat pipes bonded to metal, graphite, and carbon-fiber-based panels. NASA has identified a need for new radiator concepts that can operate at even higher temperatures (500 – 600 K), minimize thermal resistances and thermal stress failures at bond interfaces, and approach areal densities of 2 – 3 kg m -2 . To meet these needs, our team is developing additively manufactured (AM) radiator panels with integral branching wicking heat pipe networks. Water is selected as the working fluid for this temperature range. Based on simulations and thermal vacuum experiments, these branching embedded heat pipe networks can efficiently distribute heat over panels for finned surface efficiencies of η f >70% at T H = 500 K input heat. This paper first presents laser powder-bed fusion AM strategies to produce embedded porous structures for wicking heat pipes in Inconel 718 and titanium alloys (commercially pure and Ti-6Al-4V alloys). Post-build chemical and thermal treatments are described that yield hydrophilic wicking surfaces for operation with water. Transient rate-of-rise experiments with water and acetone are reported that yield estimates for AM wick porosity (ϵ), permeability (K), and effective pore radius ( r pore ). Based on the wick characterization results, small prototype radiator panels (75 × 125 mm) with integrated heat pipe networks were manufactured. Heat rejection performance data are presented from cold thermal vacuum testing, with heat input temperatures up to ~510 K. Future efforts will focus on improving heat pipe performance, optimizing radiator mass, and evaluating larger panels to assess scalability.

nuclear electric propulsion↗

Status and Predicted Performance for the AstroPIC Integrated Photonic Coronagraph

Integrated photonics is a promising coronagraph technology option for exoplanet-imaging missions like NASA’s Habitable Worlds Observatory flagship. It is theoretically capable of achieving better performance than traditional bulk-optic coronagraphs because arrays of integrated interferometers can be combined to implement any linear operator. However, photonic coronagraphs require significant maturation to be ready for a space telescope mission. The AstroPIC project is advancing this technology by developing a proof-of-concept integrated photonic coronagraph based on silicon photonic integrated circuit (PIC) technology. Specifically, the AstroPIC program is investigating the impact of a PIC coronagraph on the predicted scientific yield of the upcoming Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) mission concept. In this talk, we will present the current status of the AstroPIC design, including the layout of the most recent PIC. We will also present on the status of simulations that predict the performance of the instrument and feed into scientific yield estimations for HWO Exoploratory Analytic Cases (EACs) 1-3. Finally, we will present the status of the development of a PIC testbed at NASA Ames and results from preliminary PIC laboratory testing at Stanford.

Photonics↗

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗

LACIE area, yield, and production estimate characteristics: Canada

Sampling segment allocation for Canada placed 283 segments within three provinces: Saskatchewan (170), Alberta (75), and Manitoba (38). The data base was comprised of five data sets: allocation, historical, ratio, LANDSAT, and yield. In-season area, yield, and production estimates were generated only during phase 2. These data are presented and analyzed.

Conte, D.↗

Regressions by leaps and bounds and biased estimation techniques in yield modeling

The author has identified the following significant results. It was observed that OLS was not adequate as an estimation procedure when the independent or regressor variables were involved in multicollinearities. This was shown to cause the presence of small eigenvalues of the extended correlation matrix A'A. It was demonstrated that the biased estimation techniques and the all-possible subset regression could help in finding a suitable model for predicting yield. Latent root regression was an excellent tool that found how many predictive and nonpredictive multicollinearities there were.

Marquina, N. E.↗

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗

Sampling, aggregation, and variance estimation for area, yield, and production in LACIE

An approximately 2% sampling error was achieved in LACIE by sampling only approximately 2% of the sampling frame. The sample design in the yardstick region for which historical data were available down to a substratum level to support missing data resulting from cloud cover provided the most accurate estimate possible. The implemented strategy provided data of sufficient quality and quantity to support required performance levels and also to satisfy the existing constraints. The allocation scheme appeared to provide the most efficient usage of the available data and gave segment coverage of major producing areas and thus improved the probability of an accurate estimate.

Hallum, C. R.↗

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗

Estimates of explosive yield

Explosive yield as a function of propellant type and accident conditions was discussed along with the characteristics of propellant explosions. Three types of fuel-hypergolic, liquid oxygen-hydrocarbon, and liquid oxygen-liquid-hydrogen were considered. Data are also given on three modes (failure modes) of mixing: confinement by missile, confinement by ground surface, and high velocity impact.

Source record↗

Nitrous oxide in fresh water systems: An estimate for the yield of atmospheric N2O associated with disposal of human waste

The N2O content of waters in the Potomac and Merrimack Rivers was measured on a number of occasions over the period April to July 1977. The concentrations of dissolved N2O exceeded those which would apply in equilibrium with air by factors ranging from about 46 in the Potomac to 1.2 in the Merrimack. Highest concentrations of dissolved N2O were associated with sewage discharges from the vicinity of Washington, D. C., and analysis indicates a relatively high yield, 1.3 to 11%, for prompt conversion of waste nitrogen to N2O. Measurements of dissolved N2O in fresh water ponds near Boston demonstrated that aquatic systems provide both strong sources and sinks for atmospheric N2O.

Kaplan, W. A.↗

A simulation of air pollution model parameter estimation using data from a ground-based LIDAR remote sensor

One way to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters in a pollution dispersion model is to compare the model predictions with remotely sensed air quality data. A ground-based LIDAR sensor provides relative pollution concentration measurements as a function of space and time. The measured sensor data are compared with the dispersion model output through a numerical estimation procedure to yield parameter estimates which best fit the data. This overall process is tested in a computer simulation to study the effects of various measurement strategies. Such a simulation is useful prior to a field measurement exercise to maximize the information content in the collected data. Parametric studies of simulated data matched to a Gaussian plume dispersion model indicate the trade offs available between estimation accuracy and data acquisition strategy.

Kibler, J. F.↗

Intercomparison of Soil Moisture, Evaporative Stress, and Vegetation Indices for Estimating Corn and Soybean Yields Over the U.S.

This paper presents an intercomparative study of 12 operationally produced large-scale datasets describing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and or vegetation characteristics within agricultural regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets have been developed using a variety of techniques, including, hydrologic modeling, satellite-based retrievals, data assimilation, and survey in-field data collection. The objectives are to assess the relative utility of each dataset for monitoring crop yield variability, to quantitatively assess their capacity for predicting end-of-season corn and soybean yields, and to examine the evolution of the yield-index correlations during the growing season. This analysis is unique both with regards to the number and variety of examined yield predictor datasets and the detailed assessment of the water availability timing on the end-of-season crop production during the growing season. Correlation results indicate that over CONUS, at state-level soil moisture and ET indices can provide better information for forecasting corn and soybean yields than vegetation-based indices such as normalized difference vegetation index. The strength of correlation with corn and soybean yields strongly depends on the interannual variability in yield measured at a given location. In this case study, some of the remotely derived datasets examined provide skill comparable to that of in situ field survey-based data further demonstrating the utility of these remote sensing-based approaches for estimating crop yield.

evapotranspiration↗

Estimating The SNR Of AVIRIS Data

Combination of established statistical and filtering techniques yields improved estimates of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of multispectral imagery produced by Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Method yields more accurate estimate of random variability in AVIRIS imagery. Combination of techniques called "geostatistical" method. In first step of method, periodic noise removed by notch filtering in frequency domain. In subsequent steps, sensor noise and variability within picture elements isolated by use of semi-variance of picture elements.

Curran, Paul J.↗