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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explainable Bayesian Neural Network for Probabilistic Transient Stability Analysis Considering Wind Energy

While several data-driven models have been developed for transient stability assessment, how to consider the uncertainties from load and renewable generations and provide interpretation of data-driven assessment results are still open. This paper proposes an explainable Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) for probabilistic transient stability assessment (TSA). By extracting the uncertainties from loads and wind farms, the BNN model can make a reliable prediction and quantify the prediction uncertainties. We also develop the Gradient Shap algorithm to make the global and local explanations for the probabilistic TSA model, a significant advantage over existing black-box data-driven methods. Numerical results on the modified IEEE 39-bus system show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods in terms of prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification capabilities. The explainability of the proposed method allows system operators to design preventive controls for enhancing system stability.

Bayesian Neural Network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating opportunity for distributed wind energy in rural and agricultural areas

Wind energy is among the most mature renewable energy technologies, accounting for 11% of the current US electricity generation in 2024, with the lowest average levelized cost. While it is known that substantial opportunity exists for further development, a key question has been where wind energy is best suited compared to other technologies. This study leverages an immense dataset of parcel-resolved technoeconomic potential for the contiguous United States, focusing on distributed wind (DW) energy—a configuration where one or more turbines, typically 30–60 m in height are used to satisfy nearby energy needs. The analysis is conducted at multiple spatial scales and considers land use, crop land, census, and incentive program data to determine the most opportune areas for market development. The results show that rural, agricultural and residential areas are most suited to DW. Connection type (in front of, or behind the meter) and regulations determine the best application, while siting constraints, economics, demand and the wind resource determines the optimal size of turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technology Acceptance Workshop Meeting Proceedings, April 20-29, 2022

The Renewable Energy Wildlife Institute and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory convened a virtual workshop facilitated by the Consensus Building Institute in April 2022 to identify recommendations on how to accelerate the rate of research and development, evaluation, and adoption of technologies for monitoring or minimizing wildlife impacts from wind energy. The workshop drew on expertise from stakeholder groups including technology developers, federal agencies, conservation nonprofits, and the wind industry. Over the course of four sessions, participants discussed incentives and barriers to technology development beginning with early field testing and validation, through full-scale experimental deployment, and finally broad-scale acceptance and commercial deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Workforce Roadmap for Distributed Wind: Phase 1 - Identifying Needs and Barriers

Despite recent policy, research efforts, and resources available for utility-scale and offshore wind workforce development, the distributed wind (DW) industry has yet to make similar advances to address its workforce challenges. This report initiates the phased development of a DW workforce roadmap to provide a foundation for roadmap development. Phase 1, contained in this report, uses desk-based research on clean energy workforce approaches and a DW interested-party survey to discuss needs and barriers hindering the workforce from expanding. Findings are summarized into goals and solutions for Phase 2 of roadmap development, which identifies actors responsible for implementing solutions identified in Phase 1. Phase 1 results suggest that the sector's small size and limited growth motivate the short-term need for skilled workers or candidates with well-rounded and multifaceted abilities. Long-term expansion plans must diversify positions while capitalizing on existing utility-scale wind and offshore workforce efforts, as well as other renewable sector best practices where possible. The findings in this report can advance workforce development in the DW sector by aligning interested industry parties around common goals to address challenges. Training providers, installers, operators, manufacturers, federal agencies, national laboratories, academic partners, and labor unions can utilize the findings to help promote sustainable growth of the DW sector.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic analysis of offshore wind PEM water electrolysis for H 2 production

A model for producing hydrogen via offshore wind electrolysis was developed and the levelized costs of both energy and hydrogen were calculated. Here, this model calculated the cost of hydrogen produced by offshore wind and showed that the levelized cost of energy for hydrogen production and transportation to shore could be lower than for electricity transmission from offshore wind farms, using real wind data from a particular location. Therefore, direct coupling of the electrolysis system with offshore wind turbine is more advantageous than transmitting electricity to shore and then producing hydrogen via traditional electrolysis; the cost of hydrogen from offshore wind electrolysis is estimated to be $\$2.09$/kg, vs $\$3.86$/kg from traditional electrolysis using wind power.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current status and grand challenges for small wind turbine technology

While modern wind turbines have become by far the largest rotating machines on Earth with further upscaling planned for the future, a renewed interest in small wind turbines (SWTs) is fostering energy transition and smart grid development. Small machines have traditionally not received the same level of aerodynamic refinement as their larger counterparts, resulting in lower efficiency, lower capacity factors, and therefore a higher cost of energy. In an effort to reduce this gap, research programs are developing worldwide. With this background, the scope of the present study is 2-fold. In the first part of this paper, an overview of the current status of the technology is presented in terms of technical maturity, diffusion, and cost. The second part of the study proposes five grand challenges that are thought to be key to fostering the development of small wind turbine technology in the near future, i.e. (1) improving energy conversion of modern SWTs through better design and control, especially in the case of turbulent wind; (2) better predicting long-term turbine performance with limited resource measurements and proving reliability; (3) improving the economic viability of small wind energy; (4) facilitating the contribution of SWTs to the energy demand and electrical system integration; (5) fostering engagement, social acceptance, and deployment for global distributed wind markets. To tackle these challenges, a series of unknowns and gaps are first identified and discussed. Based on them, improvement areas are suggested, for which 10 key enabling actions are finally proposed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grand Challenges for Small Wind: Results of the European Academy Study

While modern wind turbines have become by far the largest rotating machines on Earth with further upscaling planned for the future, a renewed interest in small wind turbines (SWTs) is fostering energy transition and smart grid development. Small machines have traditionally not received the same level of aerodynamic refinement as their larger counterparts, resulting in lower efficiency, lower capacity factors, and therefore a higher cost of energy. In an effort to reduce this gap, research programs are developing worldwide. With this background, the scope of the present study is 2-fold. In the first part of this paper, an overview of the current status of the technology is presented in terms of technical maturity, diffusion, and cost. The second part of the study proposes five grand challenges that are thought to be key to fostering the development of small wind turbine technology in the near future, i.e. (1) improving energy conversion of modern SWTs through better design and control, especially in the case of turbulent wind; (2) better predicting long-term turbine performance with limited resource measurements and proving reliability; (3) improving the economic viability of small wind energy; (4) facilitating the contribution of SWTs to the energy demand and electrical system integration; (5) fostering engagement, social acceptance, and deployment for global distributed wind markets. To tackle these challenges, a series of unknowns and gaps are first identified and discussed. Based on them, improvement areas are suggested, for which 10 key enabling actions are finally proposed.

ENGINEERING,WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Functional Requirements for the WEIS Toolset to Enable Controls Co-Design of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

The goal of the new Wind Energy with Integrated Servo-control (WEIS) toolset under development is to provide the offshore wind industry and research communities with an open-source, user-friendly, flexible tool to enable true controls co-design (CCD) of the physical design of a floating offshore wind turbine together with the controller. WEIS will use a multifidelity library of models built on the foundations of WISDEM® and OpenFAST formerly known as FAST). This paper presents the WEIS development plan, including the functional requirements of WEIS (including improvements to WISDEM and OpenFAST) together with associated rationale for their establishment and a qualitative description of the modeling approaches that will be implemented to address these functional requirements. The development of WEIS is a project under the Aerodynamic Turbines Lighter and Afloat with Nautical Technologies and Integrated Servo-control program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2020

American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN)

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) is an international multi-institutional wind energy field campaign to better understand wake losses within operational wind farms. Wake interactions are among the least understood physical interactions in wind plants today, leading to unexpected power and profit losses. For example, Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, recently announced a downward revision in energy estimates across their energy generation portfolio, primarily caused by underprediction of energy losses from wind farm blockage and wakes. In their announcement, they noted that the standard industry models used for their original energy estimates were inaccurate, and this was likely an industry-wide issue. To help further improve and validate wind plant models across scales from individual turbines as well as interfarm interactions between plants, new observations, such as those planned for AWAKEN, are critical. These model improvements will enable both improved layout and more optimal operation of wind farms with greater power production and improved reliability, ultimately leading to lower wind energy costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential while Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Functional Requirements for the WEIS Toolset to Enable Controls Co-Design of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines: Preprint

The goal of the new Wind Energy with Integrated Servo-control (WEIS) toolset under development is to provide the offshore wind industry and research communities with an open-source, user-friendly, and flexible tool to enable true Controls Co-Design (CCD) of the physical design of a floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) together with the controller. WEIS will utilize a multifidelity library of models built upon the foundations of WISDEM and OpenFAST (formerly known as FAST). This paper presents the WEIS development plan, including the functional requirements of WEIS (including improvements to WISDEM and OpenFAST) together with associated rationale for their establishment, and a qualitative description of the modeling approaches that will be implemented to address these functional requirements. The development of WEIS is a project under the Aerodynamic Turbines, Lighter and Afloat, with Nautical Technologies and Integrated Servo-control (ATLANTIS) program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E).

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Platform for Wind Plant Operations: From Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid

Under the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid project (A2e2g), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is developing an optimization platform for wind plant operations. The platform merges forecasting tools with aerodynamic and economic models in order to identify optimal operating schedules and controller functions that will maximize a wind plant's value streams for energy and other grid services. In this presentation, we will describe functionalities of the platform. We will also discuss the implications the use of the platform might have for understanding and valuing the capabilities of wind resources for power system operations.

A2E2G↗
DOE OSTI2020

ECP Report: Update on Proxy Applications and Vendor Interactions

The ExaLearn miniGAN team (Ellis and Rajamanickam) have released miniGAN, a generative adversarial network(GAN) proxy application, through the ECP proxy application suite. miniGAN is the first machine learning proxy application in the suite (note: the ECP CANDLE project did previously release some benchmarks) and models the performance for training generator and discriminator networks. The GAN's generator and discriminator generate plausible 2D/3D maps and identify fake maps, respectively. miniGAN aims to be a proxy application for related applications in cosmology (CosmoFlow, ExaGAN) and wind energy (ExaWind). miniGAN has been developed so that optimized mathematical kernels (e.g., kernels provided by Kokkos Kernels) can be plugged into to the proxy application to explore potential performance improvements. miniGAN has been released as open source software and is available through the ECP proxy application website (https://proxyapps.exascaleproject.ordecp-proxy-appssuite/) and on GitHub (https://github.com/SandiaMLMiniApps/miniGAN). As part of this release, a generator is provided to generate a data set (series of images) that are inputs to the proxy application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗