Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Economic Dispatch using Gaussian Process Emulation
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Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton
We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study
The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Economic Comparison Between a Battery and Supercapacitor for Hourly Dispatching Wave Energy Converter Power: Preprint
This paper demonstrates a successful dispatching scheme of slider-crank wave energy converter (WEC) production using two different kinds of energy storage systems, namely, (i) Li-ion battery and (ii) Supercapacitors (SC). The performance of two energy storage systems has been compared in order to develop the most economical energy storage system for WEC hourly dispatching scheme. The cost optimization of the energy storage system considering both cycling and calendar aging expenses is made based on its usage of depth of discharge (DOD). In this study, the extensive simulation is conducted in MATLAB/Simulink platform, and it is found that SC is a better candidate than Li-ion battery in terms of economic assessment for hourly dispatching WEC power.
50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
Parameterizing the Variability and Uncertainty of Wind and Solar in CEMs
We present current and improved methods for estimating the capacity value and curtailment impacts from variable generation (VG) in capacity expansion models (CEMs). The ideal calculation of these variability metrics is through an explicit co-optimized investment-dispatch model using multiple years of VG and load data. Because of data and computational limitations, existing CEMs typically approximate these metrics using a subset of all hours from a single year and/or using statistical methods, which often do not capture the tail-event impacts or the broader set of interactions between VG, storage, and conventional generators. In our proposed new methods, we use hourly generation and load values across all hours of the year to characterize the (1) contribution of VG to system capacity during high load hours, (2) the curtailment level of VG, and (3) the reduction in VG curtailment due to storage and shutdown of select thermal generators. Using CEM model outputs from a preceding model solve period, we apply these methods to exogenously calculate capacity value and curtailment metrics for the subsequent model solve period. Preliminary results suggest that these hourly methods offer improved capacity value and curtailment representations of VG in the CEM from existing approximation methods without additional computational burdens.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NREL's Resource Planning Model
The Resource Planning Model (RPM) is a capacity expansion model designed for a regional power system, such as a utility service territory, state, or balancing authority. Designed from the ground up to include nodal detail, hourly chronological dispatch, and high spatial resolution for renewable resources, recent work has focused on inclusion of storage and other flexible technologies of interest for future power systems with more variable generation (e.g., wind and solar). This slide deck gives an overview of RPM modeling methods, provides example outputs, and briefly summarizes completed analysis projects.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint
As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.
contingencies↗
Hydro power flexibility for power systems with variable renewable energy sources: an IEA Task 25 collaboration: Hydro power flexibility for power systems
Hydro power is one of the most flexible sources of electricity production. Power systems with considerable amounts of flexible hydro power potentially offer easier integration of variable generation, e.g., wind and solar. However, there exist operational constraints to ensure mid-/long-term security of supply while keeping river flows and reservoirs levels within permitted limits. In order to properly assess the effective available hydro power flexibility and its value for storage, a detailed assessment of hydro power is essential. Due to the inherent uncertainty of the weather-dependent hydrological cycle, regulation constraints on the hydro system, and uncertainty of internal load as well as variable generation (wind and solar), this assessment is complex. Hence, it requires proper modeling of all the underlying interactions between hydro power and the power system, with a large share of other variable renewables. A summary of existing experience of wind integration in hydro-dominated power systems clearly points to strict simulation methodologies. Recommendations include requirements for techno-economic models to correctly assess strategies for hydro power and pumped storage dispatch. These models are based not only on seasonal water inflow variations but also on variable generation, and all these are in time horizons from very short term up to multiple years, depending on the studied system. Another important recommendation is to include a geographically detailed description of hydro power systems, rivers' flows, and reservoirs as well as grid topology and congestion.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
2022 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region
This report is a 2022 update to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2021. Anticipated summer reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 15.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2021 to 22.8 percent in the Final SARA for Summer 2022, driven mostly by increases in wind and solar generation. Using data from ERCOT’s 2022 Summer SARA, Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) reports, and historical performance data obtained from ERCOT and Hitachi Energy Velocity Suite, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2022. The results suggests that ERCOT may be facing a very tight resource adequacy situation, with the potential for a serious shortfall during the summer peak, usually the end of July through mid-August, if demand and generator outage rates significantly exceed peak levels. Under these conditions, ERCOT will need to call on its operating tools, including Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) and calls to conserve electricity, to maintain reliability and continue serving load. Those measures alone may not be sufficient to avert a shedding of load.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation
To address the data needs of energy system designers and to serve as a baseline for research and development, NETL has carried out a study to characterize the flexibility attributes - both performance and cost - of nine common commercial natural gas-fueled electricity generating units. The intermittent output of low-carbon, renewable power generation sources such as wind and solar create challenges to grid stability and reliability. Fossil-fueled power generation technologies are currently used to provide reliable, on-demand power during periods of reduced renewable output. Dispatchable generators must be able to accommodate increasing renewable generation as the nation pursues the Administration’s target of a decarbonized energy sector by 2035. As energy system experts seek to identify least-cost approaches to decarbonization, accurate cost and performance data characterizing dispatchable fossil generators that operate flexibly, at capacity factors that have been declining over time, and are needed to inform models for capacity expansion. Furthermore, these technologies continue to be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, providing the impetus for research and development, including the advancement and potential incorporation of carbon capture technologies. This study characterizes the cost and performance of select state-of-the-art natural gas-fueled power generation technologies: reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), simple cycle combustion turbines, and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC). An emphasis is placed on flexibility characteristics, such as part-load heat rate, ramp rates, start up times, and start up costs.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources
As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.
data-driven forecasting↗
Analysis of operating reserve demand curves in power system operations in the presence of variable generation
The electric power industry landscape is continually evolving. As emerging technologies such as wind and solar generating systems become more cost effective, traditional power system operating strategies will need to be re-evaluated. The presence of wind and solar generation (commonly referred to as variable generation or VG) can increase variability and uncertainty in the net-load profile. One mechanism to mitigate this issue is to schedule and dispatch additional operating reserves. These operating reserves aim to ensure that there is enough capacity online in the system to account for the increased variability and uncertainty occurring at finer temporal resolutions. A new operating reserve strategy, referred to as flexibility reserve, has been introduced in some regions. A similar implementation is explored in this study, and its implications on power system operations are analyzed. Results show that flexibility reserve products can improve economic metrics, particularly in significantly reducing the number of scarcity pricing events, with minimal impacts on reliability metrics and production costs. Furthermore, the production costs increased due to increased VG curtailment - i.e. including the flexible ramping product in the commitment of excess thermal capacity that needed to remain online at the expense of VG output.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DROPOUT OF DIRECTIONAL ELECTRON INTENSITIES IN LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS
In the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event during solar cycle 23 we have observed the dispersionless modulation (“dropout”) in directional intensities of nonrelativistic electrons. The average duration of dropout periods is ∼0.8 hr, which is consistent with the correlation scale of solar wind turbulence. During the dropout period electrons could display scatter-free transport in an intermittent way. Also, we have observed a decrease in the anisotropic index of incident electrons with increasing electron energy (E{sub e}), while the index of scattered/reflected electrons is nearly independent of E{sub e}. We hence perform an observational examination of the correlation between the anisotropic index of low-energy scattered/reflected electrons and the signature of the locally measured solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range, which is responsible for resonant scattering of nonrelativistic electrons. Since during the dropout period the slab turbulence fraction is dominant (0.8 ± 0.1), we pay close attention to the effect of slab fraction on the correlation examined. Our observation is consistent with the simulation result that in the dominance of the slab turbulence component there should exist a dispatched structure of magnetic flux tubes, along which electrons could be transported in a scatter-free manner. Since a similar phenomenon is exhibited in the “impulsive” SEP event, electron dropout should be a transport effect. Therefore, being different from most ion dropout events, which are due to a compact flare source, the dropout of directional electron intensities should be caused by the change of turbulence status in the solar wind.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Capability-Coordinated Frequency Control Scheme of a Virtual Power Plant with Renewable Energy Sources
Growing trends in the deployment of inverter-based renewable energy will decrease the inertia and frequency control capability of electric power systems by replacing conventional power plants; thus, the frequency of future power systems might be dynamic. This study proposes a capability-coordinated frequency control (CCFC) scheme of a virtual power plant (VPP) including adjustable-speed pumped storage hydropower (AS-PSH), a wind power plant (WPP), and an energy storage system to support the frequency nadir and reduce the steady-state error of system frequency. The CCFC scheme is based on a hierarchical-control structure in which a CCFC organises the output of local frequency control units. To support the frequency nadir, the CCFC dispatches weighted frequency errors that are proportional to the available headroom of the units; thus, the errors are forwarded separately with a system frequency error to the primary control loop of each unit and thereby arrest the frequency nadir at a higher value than a system without the CCFC. To reduce the steady-state error of the system frequency, the CCFC determines a partial active power command by additionally feeding an integrator of the CCFC with a modified frequency error that depends on the unit with the largest control.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Market optimization and technoeconomic analysis of hydrogen-electricity coproduction systems
Decarbonization efforts across North America, Europe, and beyond rely on variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, as well as alternative fuels, such as hydrogen, to support the sustainable energy transition. These advancements have prompted a need for more flexibility in the electric grid to complement non-dispatchable energy sources and increased demand from electrification. Integrated energy systems are well suited to provide this flexibility, but conventional technoeconomic modeling paradigms neglect the time-varying dynamic nature of the grid and thus undervalue resource flexibility. In this work, we develop a computational optimization framework for dynamic market-based technoeconomic comparison of integrated energy systems that coproduce low-carbon electricity and hydrogen (e.g., solid oxide fuel cells, solid oxide electrolysis) against technologies that only produce electricity (e.g., natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture) or only produce hydrogen. Our framework starts with rigorous physics-based process models, built in the open-source Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) modeling and optimization platform, for six energy process concepts. Using these rigorous models and a workflow to optimally design each technology, the framework is shown to be capable of evaluating new and emerging technologies in varying energy markets under a plethora of future scenarios (i.e., renewables penetration, carbon tax, etc.). Ultimately, our framework finds that solid oxide fuel cell-based coproduction systems achieve positive profits for 85% of the analyzed market scenarios. From these market optimization results, we use multivariate linear regression (R 2 values up to 0.99) to determine which electricity price statistics are most significant to predict the optimized annual profit of each system. The proposed framework provides a powerful tool for directly comparing flexible, multi-product energy process concepts to help discern optimal technology and integration options.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Operational Impacts of Operating Reserve Demand Curves on Production Cost and Reliability: Preprint
The electric power industry landscape is continually evolving. As emerging technologies such as wind, solar, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems become more cost-effective and present in the system, traditional power system operating strategies will need to be reevaluated. The presence of wind and solar generation (commonly referred to as variable generation) may result in an increase in the variability and uncertainty of the net load profile. One mechanism to mitigate this is to schedule and dispatch additional operating reserves. These operating reserves aim to ensure that there is enough capacity online in the system to account for the increased variability and uncertainty occurring at finer temporal resolutions. A new operating reserve strategy, referred to as flexibility reserve, has been introduced in some regions. A similar implementation is explored in this paper, and its implications on power system operations are analyzed.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Operational Impacts of Operating Reserve Demand Curves on Production Cost and Reliability
The electric power industry landscape is continually evolving. As emerging technologies such as wind, solar, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems become more cost-effective and present in the system, traditional power system operating strategies will need to be reevaluated. The presence of wind and solar generation (commonly referred to as variable generation) may result in an increase in the variability and uncertainty of the net load profile. One mechanism to mitigate this is to schedule and dispatch additional operating reserves. These operating reserves aim to ensure that there is enough capacity online in the system to account for the increased variability and uncertainty occurring at finer temporal resolutions. A new operating reserve strategy, referred to as flexibility reserve, has been introduced in some regions. A similar implementation is explored in this paper, and its implications on power system operations are analyzed.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗