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NASA NTRS2005

Automated Wildfire Detection Through Artificial Neural Networks

We have tested and deployed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) data mining techniques to analyze remotely sensed multi-channel imaging data from MODIS, GOES, and AVHRR. The goal is to train the ANN to learn the signatures of wildfires in remotely sensed data in order to automate the detection process. We train the ANN using the set of human-detected wildfires in the U.S., which are provided by the Hazard Mapping System (HMS) wildfire detection group at NOAA/NESDIS. The ANN is trained to mimic the behavior of fire detection algorithms and the subjective decision- making by N O M HMS Fire Analysts. We use a local extremum search in order to isolate fire pixels, and then we extract a 7x7 pixel array around that location in 3 spectral channels. The corresponding 147 pixel values are used to populate a 147-dimensional input vector that is fed into the ANN. The ANN accuracy is tested and overfitting is avoided by using a subset of the training data that is set aside as a test data set. We have achieved an automated fire detection accuracy of 80-92%, depending on a variety of ANN parameters and for different instrument channels among the 3 satellites. We believe that this system can be deployed worldwide or for any region to detect wildfires automatically in satellite imagery of those regions. These detections can ultimately be used to provide thermal inputs to climate models.

Miller, Jerry↗

NASA NTRS2008

Operational Experience with Long Duration Wildfire Mapping: UAS Missions Over the Western United States

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, United States Forest Service, and National Interagency Fire Center have developed a partnership to develop and demonstrate technology to improve airborne wildfire imaging and data dissemination. In the summer of 2007, a multi-spectral infrared scanner was integrated into NASA's Ikhana Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) (a General Atomics Predator-B) and launched on four long duration wildfire mapping demonstration missions covering eight western states. Extensive safety analysis, contingency planning, and mission coordination were key to securing an FAA certificate of authorization (COA) to operate in the national airspace. Infrared images were autonomously geo-rectified, transmitted to the ground station by satellite communications, and networked to fire incident commanders within 15 minutes of acquisition. Close coordination with air traffic control ensured a safe operation, and allowed real-time redirection around inclement weather and other minor changes to the flight plan. All objectives of the mission demonstrations were achieved. In late October, wind-driven wildfires erupted in five southern California counties. State and national emergency operations agencies requested Ikhana to help assess and manage the wildfires. Four additional missions were launched over a 5-day period, with near realtime images delivered to multiple emergency operations centers and fire incident commands managing 10 fires.

Hall, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2010

High-Volume Airborne Fluids Handling Technologies to Fight Wildfires

NASA recently partnered with the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) on a project to examine mission suitability and recommend policies and procedures for the use of very large aerial firefighting aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and DC-10 aerial retardant delivery aircraft. The aircraft under study included a 10Tanker DC-10 and an Evergreen B-747. NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center and Ames Research Center worked with the USFS to help determine the safe flight envelope for these Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT) aircraft for the USFS and the Department of the Interior (DOI). This new generation of supertankers includes aircraft like these that have as much as four times the delivery capacity of the previous generation of aerial firefighting aircraft. Dryden performed operational test and evaluation assessments and reported findings and recommendations on these aircraft in cooperation with Ames. The team developed, implemented, and directed an evaluation test plan for use in flight test and in simulation. Ames provided support using pilot-in-the-loop simulations and coordinated simulator models, flight profiles, and data analysis with Dryden. The test plan was designed to evaluate the suitability of VLAT aircraft as a function of mission environment. Based on this analysis, NASA generated interim flight envelope limitations to enhance safety and operational utility in the fire-retardant delivery mission. These recommended flight limitations were adopted by the USFS. The 10Tanker DC-10 has been in use for several years with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection(Cal-Fire), but until NASA took on the challenge of reviewing VLAT capabilities and limitations, the USFS was hesitant to add them to the federal wildfire arsenal. The DC-10 delivery system is based on an externally mounted set of tanks and a bomb-bay style set of clamshell doors that are opened in precisely calibrated ways to deliver the amounts and concentrations of retardant called for by the specific wildfire situation. The system was manufactured by Jordan Air of Central Point, OR, and was installed by Victorville Aerospace in Victorville, CA. It can deliver 12,000 gallons (45.4 kL) of retardant in as little as eight seconds. The aircraft can deliver a partial load of retardant and make multiple drops on the same flight, or the entire load can be rapidly delivered in one pass if required for maximum coverage. The Evergreen 747 uses internal tankage and a pressurized delivery system to enable volume and coverage levels that also meet USFS requirements, but enables computer control of flow for desired precision. This system was designed and built by Adaptive Aerospace of Tehachapi, CA and can deliver about 20,000 gallons (75.7 kL) of retardant in approximately ten seconds. The 747 can also make multiple independent drops, or deliver the entire load at once. NASA found that both of these VLAT aircraft are compatible with the wildfire suppression mission when used to supplement other aerial retardant delivery platforms. The major recommendations for deployment that resulted from this study relate to terrain clearance, the type of terrain in the drop area, availability of qualified lead planes to guide the VLAT approach to the drop area, and low-altitude maneuvering limitations. NASA s analysis suggests that with the appropriate flight procedures, these aircraft will provide a powerful set of tools to fight wildfires.

Dickerson, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA A-Train and Terra Observations of the 2010 Russian Wildfires

Wildfires raged throughout western Russia and parts of Eastern Europe during a persistent heat wave in the summer of 2010. Anomalously high surface temperatures (35 - 41 C) and low relative humidity (9 - 25 %) from mid- June to mid-August 2010 shown by analysis of radiosonde data from multiple sites in western Russia were ideal conditions for the wildfires to thrive. Measurements of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) over western Russian indicate persistent subsidence during the heat wave. Daily three-day back-trajectories initiated over Moscow reveal a persistent anticyclonic circulation for 18 days in August, coincident with the most intense period of fire activity observed by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This unfortunate meteorological coincidence allowed transport of polluted air from the region of intense fires to Moscow and the surrounding area. We demonstrate that the 2010 Russian wildfires are unique in the record of observations obtained by remote-sensing instruments on-board NASA satellites: Aura and Aqua (part of the A-Train Constellation) and Terra. Analysis of the distribution of MODIS fire products and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), UV aerosol index (AI) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and total column carbon monoxide (CO) from Aqua s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) show that the region in the center of western Russia surrounding Moscow (52-58 deg N, 33 -43 deg E) is most severely impacted by wildfire emissions. Over this area, AIRS CO, OMI AI, and MODIS AOT are significantly enhanced relative to the historical satellite record during the first 18 days in August when the anti-cyclonic circulation persisted. By mid-August, the anti-cyclonic circulation was replaced with westerly transport over Moscow and vicinity. The heat wave

Witte, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Polarimetric and Multi-Doppler Radar Observations of Electrified and Unelectrified Wildfire Smoke Plumes

Pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple‐ Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification ‐ a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a threedimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in high‐altitude regions (~10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), ~0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (~0.6‐0.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multiple‐Doppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multiple‐Doppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities < 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity > 5 dB, correlation < 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by ice‐based processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. The results demonstrate the scientific value of multiple‐Doppler and polarimetric radar observations of wildfire smoke plumes ‐ including the ability to distinguish between regions of pure hydrometeors, regions of pure ash, and mixtures of both ‐ and also suggest a possible new application for lightning data in monitoring wildfires.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Soot Superaggregates from Flaming Wildfires and Their Direct Radiative Forcing

Wildfires contribute significantly to global soot emissions, yet their aerosol formation mechanisms and resulting particle properties are poorly understood and parameterized in climate models. The conventional view holds that soot is formed via the cluster-dilute aggregation mechanism in wildfires and emitted as aggregates with fractal dimension D(sub f) approximately equals 1.8 mobility diameter D(sub m) (is) less than or equal to 1 micron, and aerodynamic diameter D(sub a) (is) less than or equal to 300 nm. Here we report the ubiquitous presence of soot superaggregates (SAs) in the outflow from a major wildfire in India. SAs are porous, low-density aggregates of cluster-dilute aggregates with characteristic D(sub f) approximately equals 2.6,D(sub m) (is) greater than 1 micron, and D(sub a) is less than or equal to 300 nm that form via the cluster-dense aggregation mechanism.We present additional observations of soot SAs in wildfire smoke-laden air masses over Northern California, New Mexico, and Mexico City. We estimate that SAs contribute, per unit optical depth, up to 35% less atmospheric warming than freshly-emitted (D(sub f) approximately equals 1.8) aggregates, and approximately equals 90% more warming than the volume-equivalent spherical soot particles simulated in climate models.

SAS↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Sensitivity of US Wildfire Occurrence to Pre-Season Soil Moisture Conditions Across Ecosystems

It is well accepted that drought and low moisture conditions are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state has been challenging due to a lack of soil moisture observations at an appropriate spatial scale. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined in a predictive algorithm with the US Forest Service’s Fire-Occurrence Database. We estimate a relationship between historic surface moisture and wildfire occurrence to produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area at 0.25-degree resolution for the contiguous United States by land-cover classification. Cross-validation indicates increased frequency of smaller fires when the months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This demonstrates that assimilated GRACE data holds information that could aid national-scale fire potential assessments for early decision-support.

Fire-Occurrence database↗

NASA NTRS2019

Four Years of Airborne Measurements of Wildfire Emissions in California, with a Focus on the Evolution of Emissions During the Soberanes Megafire

Biomass burning is an important source of trace gases and particles which can influence air quality on local, regional, and global scales. With wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, characterizing wildfire emissions and their evolution is vital. In this work we report in situ airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) from nine wildfire events in California between 2013 and 2016, which were sampled as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) based at NASA Ames Research Center. One of those fires, the Soberanes Megafire, began on 22 July 2016 and burned for three months. During that time, five flights were executed to sample emissions near and downwind of the Soberanes wildfire. In situ data are used to determine enhancement ratios (ERs), or excess mixing ratio relative to CO2, as well as assess O3 production from the fire. Changes in the emissions as a function of fire evolution are explored. Air quality impacts downwind of the fire are addressed using ground-based monitoring site data, satellite smoke products, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model.

Iraci, Laura T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila National Forest (Gila NF), wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances, such as the historic Whitewater Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013), have raised concerns over post-fire flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding connections between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure conservation of the watershed. The Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project provided insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and determined if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial impact on vegetation regeneration. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000-2019, this project used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM precipitation, along with ancillary data from USGS stream gauges and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3. Based on these data, the team identified burn areas that received restorative treatments and compared Normalized Burn Ratio for different land cover types to better inform land management decisions. Additionally, the team analyzed the relationship between precipitation and streamflow from stream gauges to investigate the impact wildfires have on hydrology within the watershed.

Water Resources↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Optimal Landsat Data for Burn Severity Index Calculations: Implications for High Northern Latitudes Wildfire Research

Satellite remote sensing has been widely used for the evaluation of wildfire burn severity in various ecosystems. While a variety of remote sensing-based burn severity indices have been developed, the Landsat-based differ-enced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) presents the most widely-used approach to burn severity assessment for fire research and management. Although dNBR-based approaches have been continuously updated, including the development of the relative dNBR (RdNBR) and the Relativized Burn Ratio (RBR), one key obstacle for the reliable applications of the burn severity indices in the high northern latitudes has not been adequately addressed. Specifically, optimal Landsat image pairs are very rarely available for the calculation of the burn severity indices in certain regions of the high northern latitudes (HNL), resulting in the burn severity index outputs calculated for a large number of wildfires being considerably affected by non-fire-related factors. The suboptimal selection of image pairs may have partially contributed to the lack of consistency in the performance of the burn severity indices in the HNL regions. In this paper, we systematically evaluated the impacts of sub-optimal image pairs on signal stability through two sets of analyses conducted at different spatial scales. First, at the regional scale, we examined the burn severity indices calculated for a selection of wildfires in Alaska. Here, we demonstrate the inconsistent performance of the same index calculated based on Landsat data that are typically considered as “optimal”. In addition, we show that the calculated indices may be more prone to the negative impacts of these inconsistencies, thus leading to reduced reliability, when there is limited Landsat data availability. Second, at the continental scale, we show that certain areas in the HNL, especially Alaska during the pre-2000 era, are subject to the potentially strong negative impact associated with the limited data availability. Through systematically analyzing this issue, we hope to not only divert more attention to it but also to provide potential solutions, based on which further improvements that may be of particular importance for research on Arctic wildfires could be made.

Dong Chen↗

NASA NTRS2021

Measuring Atmospheric CO2 Enhancements from the 2017 British Columbia 1 Wildfires Using a Lidar

During the summer 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE airborne science campaign, the NASA Goddard CO2 Sounder lidar overflew smoke plumes from wildfires in the British Columbia, Canada. In the flight path over Vancouver Island on 8 August 2017, the column XCO2 retrievals from the lidar measurements at flight altitudes around 9 km showed an average enhancement of 4 ppm from the wildfires. A comparison of these enhancements with those from the Goddard Global Chemistry Transport model suggested that the modeled CO2 emissions from wildfires were underestimated by more than a factor of 2. A spiral-down validation performed at Moses Lake airport, Washington showed a bias of 0.1 ppm relative to in situ measurements and a standard deviation of 1 ppm in lidar XCO2 retrievals. The results show that future airborne campaigns and spaceborne missions with this type of lidar can improve estimates of CO2 emissions from wildfires and estimates of carbon fluxes globally.

Jianping Mao↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Increasingly, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being applied to wildfire incidents for tasks such as mapping, aerial ignition, and delivery. As a result, incident reporting systems for wildfires are beginning to accumulate data related to UAS mishaps in wildfire response. In this research, we apply state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to develop a custom Named Entity Recognition (NER) model which extracts a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)-style survey of wildfire UAS mishaps reported in SAFECOM. The custom NER model is built by fine-tuning an existing (BERT) model, resulting in a generalizable NER model that can extract engineering relevant entities including failure modes, causes, effects, control processes, and recommendations from any failure-relevant text. Similar mishaps are clustered and reported as single rows within the FMEA. For each cluster, frequency, severity, and overall risk are computed. The methodology can be applied as part of a broader safety management system to track trends in mishaps and discover knowledge that can be utilized to improve safety outcomes and system performance.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS2022

Okefenokee Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Hydrologic Changes and Wildfire Risk in the Okefenokee Swamp

The Okefenokee Swamp is a vital ecosystem known for its protection of biodiversity, peatland carbon sinks, and recreational and economic opportunities for local residents. The swamp has experienced several wildfires since the 1990s, and new development along the borders of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR) threatens to alter hydrologic activity and increase fire frequency. NASA DEVELOP partnered with staff at the ONWR to determine the feasibility of using satellite imagery to assess wildfire risk and map changes in vegetation cover. Using data from NASA satellites Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data from the USDA’s Crop Condition and Soil Moisture Analytics Tool (Crop-CASMA), European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), the DEVELOP team assessed the relationship between hydrologic change, vegetation cover, and wildfire risk in the swamp. Results showed that the southern portion of ONWR has been burned the most since 1990 and has greater water stability than other areas of the refuge. The team also found that the largest pockets of mature forests remain in the northernmost regions. Soil moisture anomaly readings may serve as an indicator of fire conditions. The team used these results to create a vegetation map, a swamp water visibility time series map, a historical wildfire correlation analysis, and a methodology tutorial. These products will assist the ONWR in making informed management decisions about the future of the Okefenokee Swamp.

Brianne Kendall↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Increasingly, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being applied to wildfire incidents for tasks such as mapping, aerial ignition, and delivery. As a result, aviation incident reporting systems for wildfires are beginning to accumulate data related to UAS mishaps in wildfire response. In this research, we apply state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to develop a custom Named Entity Recognition (NER) model which extracts entities relevant to safety analysts. The custom NER model is built by fine-tuning an existing Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, resulting in a generalizable NER model that can extract engineering relevant entities including failure modes, causes, effects, control processes, and recommendations from failure-relevant text. This model performs passably, with a weighted average f1 score of 0.33 across entity types, indicating more labeled training data is needed. Extracted entities are used to form a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)-style survey of wildfire UAS mishaps reported using the SAFECOM system. Similar mishaps are manually clustered and reported as single rows within an FMEA. Foreach cluster, we compute frequency, severity, and overall riskin accordance with FAA standards. This methodology can beapplied as part of a broader safety management system totrack trends in mishaps (e.g., likelihood, severity) and discoverknowledge (e.g., causes, effects) that can be utilized to improvesafety outcomes and system performance.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS2023

Measurement Report :Emission Factors of NH3 and NHx for Wildfires and Agricultural Fires in the United States

During the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) study, the NASA DC-8 carried out in situ chemical measurements in smoke plumes emitted from wildfires and agricultural fires in the contiguous United States. The DC-8 payload included a modified proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) for the fast measurement of gaseous ammonia (NH 3 ) and a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) for the fast measurement of submicron particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ). We herein report data collected in smoke plumes emitted from 6 wildfires in the Western United States, 2 prescribed grassland fires in the Central United States, 1 prescribed forest fire in the Southern United States, and 66 small agricultural fires in the Southeastern United States. Smoke plumes contained double to triple digit ppb levels of NH 3 . In the wildfire plumes, a significant fraction of NH 3 had already been converted to NH 4 + at the time of sampling (≥2 h after emission). Substantial amounts of NH 4 + were also detected in freshly emitted smoke from corn and rice field fires. We herein present a comprehensive set of emission factors of NH 3 and NH x , with NH x = NH 3 + NH 4 + . Average NH 3 and NH x emission factors for wildfires in the Western United States were 1.86±0.75 g kg −1 and 2.47±0.80 g kg −1 of fuel burned, respectively. Average NH 3 and NH x emission factors for agricultural fires in the Southeastern United States were 0.89±0.58 and 1.74±0.92 g kg −1 , respectively. Our data show no clear inverse correlation between modified combustion efficiency (MCE) and NH 3 emissions. The observed NH 3 emissions were significantly higher than measured in previous laboratory experiments in the FIREX FireLab 2016 study.

Laura Tomsche↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Canadian Wildfires 2023 on North Atlantic's Region Air Quality: An Analysis Using ASDC Data

Wildfires pose a growing concern in North America due to their harmful impacts on air quality and public health, with increased wildfire activity in recent years leading to widespread smoke plumes that can transcend borders. The exposure of New York City (NYC), the most populous city in North America, to Canadian wildfire smoke highlights the substantial implications for public health and urban environments. To better understand the impact of Canadian wildfires on air quality in NYC, satellite data from the NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at Langley Research Center, along with ground-based measurements and atmospheric modeling results, are analyzed. NASA's Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) is in the Science Directorate located at NASA'S Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. The Science Directorate's Climate Science Branch, Atmospheric Composition Branch, and Chemistry and Dynamics Branch work with ASDC to study changes in the Earth and its atmosphere. ASDC projects focus on the Earth science disciplines: Radiation Budget, Clouds, Aerosols, and Tropospheric Composition. All the products chosen for this analysis are products hosted by ASDC and available for users to obtain via our services [1].

Hazem Mahmoud↗

NASA NTRS2024

Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Yunyao Li↗