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At least 181 records · Page 10

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Goodrich, Michael S.↗

Analysis of fault-tolerant neurocontrol architectures

The fault-tolerance of analog parallel distributed implementations of a multivariable aircraft neurocontroller is analyzed by simulating weight and neuron failures in a simplified scheme of analog processing based on the functional architecture of the ETANN chip (Electrically Trainable Artificial Neural Network). The neural information processing is found to be only partially distributed throughout the set of weights of the neurocontroller synthesized with the backpropagation algorithm. Although the degree of distribution of the neural processing, and consequently the fault-tolerance of the neurocontroller, could be enhanced using Locally Distributed Weight and Neuron Approaches, a satisfactory level of fault-tolerance could only be obtained by retraining the degrated VLSI neurocontroller. The possibility of maintaining neurocontrol performance and stability in the presence of single weight of neuron failures was demonstrated through an automated retraining procedure of the neurocontroller based on a pre-programmed choice and sequence of the training parameters.

Troudet, T.↗

A MPET 2 -mPBPK model for subcutaneous injection of biotherapeutics with different molecular weights: From local scale to whole-body scale

Subcutaneous injection of biotherapeutics has attracted considerable attention in the pharmaceutical industry. However, there is limited understanding of the mechanisms underlying the absorption of drugs with different molecular weights and the delivery of drugs from the injection site to the targeted tissue. Here, we propose the MPET 2 -mPBPK model to address this issue. This multiscale model couples the MPET 2 model, which describes subcutaneous injection at the local tissue scale from a biomechanical view, with a post-injection absorption model at injection site and a minimal physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) model at whole-body scale. Utilizing the principles of tissue biomechanics and fluid dynamics, the local MPET 2 model provides solutions that account for tissue deformation and drug absorption in local blood vessels and initial lymphatic vessels during injection. Additionally, we introduce a model accounting for the molecular weight effect on the absorption by blood vessels, and a nonlinear model accounting for the absorption in lymphatic vessels. The post-injection model predicts drug absorption in local blood vessels and initial lymphatic vessels, which are integrated into the whole-body mPBPK model to describe the pharmacokinetic behaviors of the absorbed drug in the circulatory and lymphatic system. We establish a numerical model which links the biomechanical process of subcutaneous injection at local tissue scale and the pharmacokinetic behaviors of injected biotherapeutics at whole-body scale. With the help of the model, we propose an explicit relationship between the reflection coefficient and the molecular weight and predict the bioavalibility of biotherapeutics with varying molecular weights via subcutaneous injection. The considered drug absorption mechanisms enable us to study the differences in local drug absorption and whole-body drug distribution with varying molecular weights. This model enhances the understanding of drug absorption mechanisms and transport routes in the circulatory system for drugs of different molecular weights, and holds the potential to facilitate the application of computational modeling to drug formulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The in-situ cometary particulate size distribution measured for one comet: P/Halley

The close approach of Giotto to comet Halley during its 1986 apparition offered an opportunity to study the particulate mass distribution to masses of up to one gram. Data acquired by the front end channels of the highly sensitive mass spectrometer PIA and the dust shield detector system, DIDSY, provide definition to the detected distribution as close as 1000 km to the nucleus. Dynamic motion of the particulates after emission leads to a spatial differentiation affecting the size distribution in several forms: (1) ejecta velocity dispersion; (2) radiation pressure; (3) varying heliocentric distance; and (4) anisotropic nucleus emission. Transformation of the in-situ distribution from PIA and DIDSY weighted heavily by the near-nucleus fluxes leads to a presumed nucleus distribution. The data lead to a puzzling distribution at large masses, not readily explained in an otherwise monotonous power law distribution. Although temporal changes in nucleus activity could and do modify the in-situ size distribution, such an explanation is not wholly possible, because the same form is observed at differing locations in the coma where the time of flight from the nucleus greatly varies. Thus neither a general change in comet activity nor spatial variations lead to a satisfactory explanation.

Mcdonnell, J. A. M.↗

Structural Configuration Analysis of Advanced Flight Vehicle Concepts with Distributed Hybrid-Electric Propulsion

Structural configuration analysis of two advanced aircraft concepts with distributed hybrid-electric propulsion is presented. These concepts are characterized by multiple wing-mounted electric propulsors, which are powered by turbo-generators. Based on lessons learned from previous structural analysis of unconventional concepts, high-fidelity finite element models of the aircraft wing with embedded electric propulsors are developed. Although a hybrid-electric propulsion system has noise and emission benefits, it also adds electrical power system weights. Hence, efficient structural integration of the wing and propulsors is investigated for design improvement, structural analysis, and weight reduction. Wing structural weights of the two designs are compared with a baseline conventional transport aircraft wing for benefit assessment. In one design, the wing structural weight reduction partially compensates for the additional weight associated with the distributed electric propulsion system.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗

The multifunctional use of an aqueous battery for a high capacity jellyfish robot

The batteries that power untethered underwater vehicles (UUVs) serve a single purpose: to provide energy to electronics and motors; the more energy required, the bigger the robot must be to accommodate space for more energy storage. By choosing batteries composed primarily of liquid media [e.g., redox flow batteries (RFBs)], the increased weight can be better distributed for improved capacity with reduced inertial moment. Here, we formed an RFB into the shape of a jellyfish, using two redox chemistries and architectures: (i) a secondary ZnBr 2 battery and (ii) a hybrid primary/secondary ZnI 2 battery. A UUV was able to be powered solely by RFBs with increased volumetric (Q~ 11 ampere-hours per liter) and areal (108 milliampere-hours per square centimeter) energy density, resulting in a long operational lifetime (T~ 1.5 hours) for UUVs composed of primarily electrochemically energy-dense liquid (~90% of the robot’s weight).

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Parameter Estimation in Astronomy with Poisson-Distributed Data: The (CHI)2(gamma) Statistic - 1

Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [Sigma (sub i)n(sub i)ssigma(sub i, sup -2)], to determine the weighted mean of data, n(sub i), drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by approx. 1 for all true mean values larger than approx.3 when the common assumption is made that the error of the i th observation is sigma(sub i) = max square root of n(sub i), 1).This small, but statistically significant offset, explains the long-known observation that chi-square minimization techniques which use the modified Neyman'chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub N) equivalent Sigma(sub i)((n(sub i) - y(sub i)(exp 2)) / max(n(sub i), 1), to compare Poisson - distributed data with model values, y(sub i), will typically predict a total number of counts that underestimates the true total by about 1 count per bin. Based on my finding that weighted mean of data drawn from a Poisson distribution can be determined using the formula [Sigma(sub i)[n(sub i) + min(n(sub i), 1)](n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1)] / [Sigma(sub i)(n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1))], I propose that a new chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub gamma) equivalent, should always be used to analyze Poisson- distributed data in preference to the modified Neyman's chi(exp 2) statistic. I demonstrated the power and usefulness of,chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization by using two statistical fitting techniques and five chi(exp 2) statistics to analyze simulated X-ray power - low 15 - channel spectra with large and small counts per bin. I show that chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization with the Levenberg - Marquardt or Powell's method can produce excellent results (mean slope errors approx. less than 3%) with spectra having as few as 25 total counts.

Mighell, Kenneth J.↗

Arctic sea ice leads from advanced very high resolution radiometer images

A large number of advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) images from throughout 1989 are analyzed to determine lead characteristics. The units of analysis are square 200-km cells, and there are 270 such cells in the data set. Clouds are masked manually. Leads determine from images of the potential open water delta, a scaled version of the surface temperature or albedo that weights thin ice by its thermal or brightness impact. The lead fraction is determined as the mean delta, the monthly mean lead fraction ranges from 0.02 in winter to 0.06 in summer in the central Arctic and is near 0.08 in the winter in the peripheral seas. A method of accounting for lead width sampling errors due to the finite sample areas is introduced. In the central Arctic the observed mean lead width for a threshold of delta = 0.1 ranges from 2 or 3 km (near the resolution of the instrument) in the winter to 6 km in the summer. In the peripheral seas it is about 5 km in the winter. Width distributions are often more heavily weighted in the tail than exponential distributions and are well approximated by a power law. The along-track, number density power law N = aw(exp -6) has a mean exponent of b = 1.60 (standard deviation 0.18) and shows some seasonal variability. Mean floe widths in the central Arctic are 40 to 50 km in the winter, dropping to about 10 km in the summer. For floes the power law has a mean exponent of 0.93 and exhibits a clearer annual cycle. Lead orientation is determined with a method based on the direction of maximum extent.

Lindsay, R. W.↗

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Further work on sodium montmorillonite as catalyst for the polymerization of activated amino acids

When the polycondensation of amino acid acylates was catalyzed with Na-montmorillonite, the polypeptides were consistently found to exhibit a distribution of discrete molecular weights, for as yet undiscovered reasons. One possible explanation was connected to the stepwise mode of monomer addition. New experiments have eliminated this possibility, so that there is the general assumption that this discreteness is the result of a preference of shorter oligomers to add to others of the same length, a feature that could be attributed to some structure of the platelet aggregates of the montmorillonite. The production of optical stereoisomers is anticipated when D,L-amino acids are polymerized on montmorillonite. Having used an optically active surface, the essence of the results lies not only in the occurrence of optically active oligomers and polymers, but also in the fact that the latter exhibit the same molecular weight characteristics as the D,L-polymers. Preparatory to work contemplated on a parallel synthesis of amino acid and nucleotide oligomers, studies were continued on the co-adsorption of amino acids, nucleotides, and amino acid-nucleotides on montmorillonite.

Eirich, F. R.↗

Preloaded Composite-Strut/End-Fitting Joint

Proposed structural joint between composite strut and metal end fitting strong and light in weight. Joint configured to distribute stresses fairly uniformly, with little interlaminar stress. Composite-strut/metal-fitting joint built up integrally with strut in layup process. Joint remains tight under reversals of loads and changes in temperature.

Monitor, Dean S.↗

Probabilistic Design of a Plate-Like Wing to Meet Flutter and Strength Requirements

An approach is presented for carrying out reliability-based design of a metallic, plate-like wing to meet strength and flutter requirements that are given in terms of risk/reliability. The design problem is to determine the thickness distribution such that wing weight is a minimum and the probability of failure is less than a specified value. Failure is assumed to occur if either the flutter speed is less than a specified allowable or the stress caused by a pressure loading is greater than a specified allowable. Four uncertain quantities are considered: wing thickness, calculated flutter speed, allowable stress, and magnitude of a uniform pressure load. The reliability-based design optimization approach described herein starts with a design obtained using conventional deterministic design optimization with margins on the allowables. Reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with response surfaces that provide values of stresses and flutter speed. During the reliability-based design optimization, the response surfaces and move limits are coordinated to ensure accuracy of the response surfaces. Studies carried out in the paper show the relationship between reliability and weight and indicate that, for the design problem considered, increases in reliability can be obtained with modest increases in weight.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗

Dispersion and Lifetime of the SO2 Cloud from the August 2008 Kasatochi Eruption

Hemispherical dispersion of the SO2 cloud from the August 2008 Kasatochi eruption is analyzed using satellite data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Goddard Trajectory Model (GTM). The operational OMI retrievals underestimate the total SO2 mass by 20-30% on 8-11 August, as compared with more accurate offline Extended Iterative Spectral Fit (EISF) retrievals, but the error decreases with time due to plume dispersion and a drop in peak SO2 column densities. The GTM runs were initialized with and compared to the operational OMI SO2 data during early plume dispersion to constrain SO2 plume heights and eruption times. The most probable SO2 heights during initial dispersion are estimated to be 10-12 km, in agreement with direct height retrievals using EISF algorithm and IR measurements. Using these height constraints a forward GTM run was initialized on 11 August to compare with the month-long Kasatochi SO2 cloud dispersion patterns. Predicted volcanic cloud locations generally agree with OMI observations, although some discrepancies were observed. Operational OMI SO2 burdens were refined using GTM-predicted mass-weighted probability density height distributions. The total refined SO2 mass was integrated over the Northern Hemisphere to place empirical constraints on the SO2 chemical decay rate. The resulting lower limit of the Kasatochi SO2 e-folding time is approx.8-9 days. Extrapolation of the exponential decay back in time yields an initial erupted SO2 mass of approx.2.2 Tg on 8 August, twice as much as the measured mass on that day.

Krotkov, N. A.↗

Extensions to the classical calculation of the effect of mutual shadowing in diffuse reflection

The classical method for accounting for the mutual shadowing among closely packed particles in multiple scattering calculations is extended in the following ways. (1) By modeling the particle distribution by a Poisson process with a varying density parameter, a 'Van der Waals' type approximation allows extension to a greater fractional volume density, D. In this case it is only required that D squared be much less than 1 instead of D being much less than 1. (2) In the case that the particle distribution is not uniform the classical calculation may be weighted by the pair correlation function of the distribution. (3) The use of the Markov chain formalism for radiative transfer allows inclusion of the effect of shadowing for two orders of scattering. For conditions such as might apply in Saturn's rings, the inclusion of this effect makes less than a 0.1% difference in the calculated phase curves, compared to previous calculations which have included shadowing only in the first scattering. The latter are thus shown to be quite accurate.

Esposito, L. W.↗