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DOE OSTI2025

Data Centers and Digital Assurance Workshop 2 – Prioritizing Digital Assurance Challenges, Session 2

The second session of the TADA (Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance) Data Centers Cohort, held on November 10, 2025, focused on prioritizing digital assurance challenges at the intersection of data centers and the electric grid. Building on the foundational concepts introduced in Workshop 1, this session deepened the application of the Threat–Vulnerability–Consequence (TVC) framework and emphasized the urgency of addressing cybersecurity, supply chain integrity, and operational reliability. Participants explored the growing convergence of digital and physical systems, the expanding attack surface due to global supply chain dependencies, and the implications of AI-driven load behavior. Real-world incidents—including the Volt Typhoon campaign and vulnerabilities in Solarman and Deye platforms—were analyzed to illustrate the risks of unpatched systems, insecure APIs, and inadequate vendor oversight. Key themes included architecture and interface weaknesses, governance gaps, and human and procedural shortcomings. The workshop also examined the evolving regulatory landscape, highlighting new federal mandates around Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) compliance and large-load reliability standards. Through interactive exercises, stakeholders ranked and mapped digital assurance risks from their respective perspectives—utilities, operators, and vendors—laying the groundwork for mitigation strategies and shared accountability models to be developed in Workshop 3. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

Abstract Recent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Smart Inverters, Dumb Risk: Taking Control of IBR Security in the Digital Age

This presentation addresses the security challenges posed by Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) in the modern energy landscape. The presentation highlights the vulnerabilities and risks associated with IBRs, including the potential for cyber-attacks, the impact of insecure defaults, and the systemic risks posed by supply chain dependencies. Key topics covered include: 1) The increasing digital transformation in energy systems and the associated security risks. 2) Specific vulnerabilities in IBRs, including weak passwords, hardcoded credentials, and insecure web application interfaces. 3) The implications of persistent connectivity and the strategic risks posed by foreign-manufactured components. 4) The role of regulatory frameworks, such as NERC CIP, in addressing these challenges and the limitations of current oversight. 5) Practical solutions for mitigating risks, including secure design practices, vendor risk assessments, and the importance of strong passwords and role-based access control. The presentation underscores the necessity of a comprehensive, system-of-systems approach to securing IBRs, emphasizing the need for collaboration across various stakeholders, including operators, developers, and regulators, to ensure the resilience and security of the energy grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Catalytic Reduction of Carbon Monoxide to Liquid Fuels with Recyclable Hydride Donors

Solar light absorption and catalysis are physically separated processes in natural photosynthesis. Natural cofactors, such as nicotinamide adenine dinucleotides (NADH), transport electrons and hydrogen to regulate and activate enzymes at remote locations. The physical separation of light absorption from catalysis provides some inspiration for artificial photosynthesis. One rather extreme implementation is to use copper wires to transport carriers from photovoltaic cells to dark electrodes, where catalysis occurs. Indeed, with a futuristic electrical grid powered solely by photovoltaics, solar capture could be separated from catalysis by hundreds of miles. An alternative approach, that bares more similarity to natural photosynthesis, employs mobile NADH/NAD + -like species that shuttle between the light absorber and a proximate, yet unilluminated, location where catalysis occurs. Additionally, such a remote approach to solar photocatalysis was recently proposed for the reduction of carbon oxides, CO 2 and CO, to methanol by cascade catalysis. This developing artificial photosynthetic approach offers the promise of catalytic generation of methanol and oxygen gas with sunlight as the sole energy source and CO 2 and water as the only chemical feedstocks. This Viewpoint evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of this approach with an emphasis on CO reduction catalysis with photorecyclable hydride donors while looking forward to what might reasonably be achieved with continued research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

GR-Athena++: General-relativistic Magnetohydrodynamics Simulations of Neutron Star Spacetimes

We present the extension of GR-Athena++ to general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) for applications to neutron star spacetimes. The new solver couples the constrained transport implementation of Athena++ to the Z4c formulation of the Einstein equations to simulate dynamical spacetimes with GRMHD using oct-tree adaptive mesh refinement. We consider benchmark problems for isolated and binary neutron star spacetimes demonstrating stable and convergent results at relatively low resolutions and without grid symmetries imposed. The code correctly captures magnetic field instabilities in nonrotating stars with total relative violation of the divergence-free constraint of 10 –16 . It handles evolutions with a microphysical equation of state and black hole formation in the gravitational collapse of a rapidly rotating star. For binaries, we demonstrate correctness of the evolution under the gravitational radiation reaction and show convergence of gravitational waveforms. We showcase the use of adaptive mesh refinement to resolve the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability at the collisional interface in a merger of magnetised binary neutron stars. GR-Athena++ shows strong scaling efficiencies above 80% in excess of 10 5 CPU cores and excellent weak scaling is shown up to ~5 × 10 5 CPU cores in a realistic production setup. GR-Athena++ allows for the robust simulation of GRMHD flows in strong and dynamical gravity with exa-scale computers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Filter Design for Point-on-Wave Sensors: Highlighting Frequency Response Limitations and Enhancing Grid Simulation Accuracy

Data is proving to be the backbone of today's and, more importantly, tomorrow's grid. As the system changes and introduces fast-acting devices like power electronics, overall observability tends to decrease from the utility point-of-view. This can be mitigated by adding more high-fidelity sensors onto the grid, although this incurs a cost. These sensors are never ideal, and each have unique frequency responses that may influence the data produced. This may, in turn, impact the protection and control of the power grid. This paper presents a methodology of representing these point-on-wave sensors digitally by estimating digital-filter representations of them, thereby introducing means of improving the sensor models used in electromagnetic-transient (EMT) simulations. This may help with identifying potential high-frequency, sensor-induced distortions, and system resonance compensation. Three commercial-grade medium-voltage point-on-wave sensors are utilized in a lab environment to obtain experimental frequency responses with a frequency sweep, and it is shown that both Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) and Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter representations may approximate these responses with varying degrees of accuracy, though each has their own strengths and weaknesses. It is found that, in general, FIR estimation better approximates these sensors than IIR estimation does.

Wilson, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000327331697)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Direct and Indirect Influence on EV Charging Stations Across the US

The adoption of new technology for electric vehicles (EV) and mobility applications can bring underappreciated vulnerabilities to the power grid. One area of potential fraud and adversarial influence is through the business ecosystem of startups that own and deploy EV technology. Yet, there are no models or analyses that map the network of organizations and people that have direct and indirect influence over technologies currently deployed in the grid. To fill this gap, we develop a multilayer network model to measure direct and indirect influence on EV charging stations. First, we create and adversarial socio-technical network (ASTN) model via a data fusion pipeline for different US regions of interest (ROI). Then, we develop an integrated ASTN for Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia. We rank EV charging companies direct influence within each geographic region as well as indirect influence via social network analysis. While some companies have strong direct and indirect influence (i.e., ChargePoint) others show a mismatch between their influence over charging stations and their position within the social network. For example, Tesla has strong direct influence on stations and weak indirect influence over competitors. In contrast, 7Charge has weak direct influence over stations, but strong indirect influence over competitors.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards exascale for wind energy simulations

We examine large-eddy-simulation modeling approaches and computational performance of two open-source computational fluid dynamics codes for the simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flows that are of direct relevance to wind energy production. The first code, NekRS, is a high-order, unstructured-grid, spectral element code. The second code, AMR-Wind, is a second-order, block-structured, finite-volume code with adaptive mesh refinement capabilities. The objective of this study is to co-develop these codes in order to improve model fidelity and performance for each. These features will be critical for running ABL-based applications such as wind farm analysis on advanced computing architectures. To this end, we investigate the performance of NekRS and AMR-Wind on the Oak Ridge Leadership Facility supercomputers Summit, using 4 to 800 nodes (24 to 4,800 NVIDIA V100 GPUs), and Crusher, the testbed for the Frontier exascale system, using 18 to 384 Graphics Compute Dies on AMD MI250X GPUs. We compare strong- and weak-scaling capabilities, linear solver performance, and time to solution. We also identify leading inhibitors to parallel scaling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Critical Metallicity of Cool Supergiant Formation. I. Effects on Stellar-mass Loss and Feedback

This paper systematically studies the relation between metallicity and mass loss of massive stars. We perform one-dimensional stellar evolution simulations and build a grid of ~2000 models with initial masses ranging between 11 and 60 M ⊙ and absolute metallicities Z between 0.00001 and 0.02. Steady-state winds, comprising hot main-sequence winds and cool supergiant winds, are the main drivers of the mass loss of massive stars in our models. We calculate the total mass loss over the stellar lifetime for each model. Our results reveal the existence of a critical metallicity Z c at Z ~ 10 –3 , where the mass loss exhibits a dramatic jump. If Z > Z c , massive stars tend to evolve into cool supergiants, and a robust cool wind is operational. In contrast, if Z < Z c , massive stars usually remain as blue supergiants, wherein the cool wind is not activated and the mass loss is generally weak. Moreover, we calculate the wind feedback in a 10 5 M ⊙ star cluster with the Salpeter initial mass function. The kinetic energy released by winds does not exhibit any significant transition at Z c because the wind velocity of a cool supergiant wind is low and contributes little to the kinetic energy. The effects of critical metallicity provide implications for the fates of metal-poor stars in the early universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

GRIDS-Net: Inverse shape design and identification of scatterers via geometric regularization and physics-embedded deep learning

This study presents a deep learning based methodology for both remote sensing and design of acoustic scatterers. The ability to determine the shape of a scatterer, either in the context of material design or sensing, plays a critical role in many practical engineering problems. This class of inverse problems is extremely challenging due to their high-dimensional, nonlinear, and ill-posed nature. To overcome these technical hurdles, we introduce a geometric regularization approach for deep neural networks (DNN) based on non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) and capable of predicting complex 2D scatterer geometries in a parsimonious dimensional representation. Then, this geometric regularization is combined with physics-embedded learning and integrated within a robust convolutional autoencoder (CAE) architecture to accurately predict the shape of 2D scatterers in the context of identification and inverse design problems. Further, an extensive numerical study is presented in order to showcase the remarkable ability of this approach to handle complex scatterer geometries while generating physically-consistent acoustic fields. The study also assesses and contrasts the role played by the (weakly) embedded physics in the convergence of the DNN predictions to a physically consistent inverse design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Sequential Quadratic Programming Algorithm for Nonsmooth Problems with Upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) Objective

An optimization algorithm for nonsmooth nonconvex constrained optimization problems with upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) objective functions is proposed and analyzed. Upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) is a weakly concave property that exists in difference of convex (DC) functions and arises naturally in many applications, particularly certain classes of solutions to parametric optimization problems e.g., recourse of stochastic programming and projection onto closed sets. The algorithm can be viewed as an extension of sequential quadratic programming (SQP) to nonsmooth problems with upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) objectives or a simplified bundle method. It is globally convergent with bounded algorithm parameters that are updated with a trust-region criterion. The algorithm handles general smooth constraints through linearization and uses a line search to ensure progress. The potential inconsistencies from the linearization of the constraints are addressed through a penalty method. In conclusion, the capabilities of the algorithm are demonstrated by solving both simple upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) problems and a real-world optimal power flow problem used in current power grid industry practices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A robust statistical analysis of the role of hydropower on the system electricity price and price volatility

Abstract Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage and large reservoir storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid (S. Rehman, L M Al-Hadhrami, and M M Alam), (2015 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 44 , 586–98). This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014-2020 (ISONE, ISO New England Web Services API v1.1 .” https://webservices.iso-ne.com/docs/v1.1/ , 2021. Accessed: 2021-01-10). We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (>70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

DOE OSTI2026

The sweeper spectrometer for neutron invariant-mass spectroscopy at FRIB

Neutron invariant-mass spectroscopy (NIMS) is a key technique for studying unbound and weakly bound nuclei at the limits of stability. At the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB), such measurements are performed using the Sweeper spectrometer, a large-gap, high-rigidity dipole system coupled to the MoNA-LISA neutron detector arrays. To meet the demands imposed by higher beam energies (>130 MeV/u) and the broad cocktail-beam selection available at FRIB, the spectrometer has recently been upgraded to improve particle-identification and detection performance. Upstream of the reaction target, a plastic scintillator with Silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) readout provides the global trigger and time reference, two parallel plate avalanche counters (PPACs) track the trajectories of incoming beam particles, and a silicon PIN detector measures the energy loss, ΔE, for charge (Z) identification. After the Sweeper magnet, the trajectories of the reaction products are tracked by two micro-pattern drift chambers (MPDCs), their charge (Z) is identified by a Frisch-grid ionization chamber (FG-IC), and their mass-to-charge ratio (A/Q) is deduced by time-of-flight measurement using a fast plastic scintillator read out by an array of photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). The detection system also incorporates the Modular Neutron Array (MoNA) for neutron detection and the CAESium-iodide scintillator ARray (CAESAR) for high-efficiency γ-ray measurements to enable full kinematic reconstruction. Performance was evaluated using a cocktail beam around 37 Al accelerated at E ≈ 130 MeV/u during the first FRIB campaign, demonstrating the readiness of the upgraded system for future studies of nuclei at and beyond the neutron drip line.

Particle identification methods↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗